Sox Draft Carlos Rodon> Draft Day Discussion Thread

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I wouldn't touch a HS kid that throws 103. No way.

 

He isn't a max effort guy like Peavy though. Everything I've read is he will be fine

[fathom]

Two seam FB that tops in the mid 90's, potential plus curve and change, supposed to be very good control/command.

 

He has incredible command. Change-up got away from him in recent years.

[The Ultimate Champion]

This is why you teach him to throw 95 with alot of movement and improved control.

SOOO much this.

 

Kolek has gone out there and has done what he needed to do to get scouts to recommend MLB organizations throw what is potentially a life's worth of financial security at him. Give him that bonus, and now you make him into a pitcher.

 

Don't outdumb yourself here, Sox. It's funny, you want elite velocity and then as soon as you get it you're a-scared? If you're a-scared buy a dog, then draft Kolek anyway.

[ptatc]

I wouldn't touch a HS kid that throws 103. No way.

Didn't think I would ever see the comment that people would not want hard throwers.

 

Look at what the Sox did with Sale. He could throw 99 regularly out of the pen. They taught him to dial it down and throw 94 consistently with better movement and control.

This is what they would do with Kolek. He can throw and easy 95. That is a good weapon to have.

Just because he can throw 100 doesn't mean he will once he learns pitching.

[iamshack]

He has incredible command. Change-up got away from him in recent years.

Fathom, who do you like?

[fathom]

Fathom, who do you like?

 

Aiken

Rodon

 

 

 

 

Nola

 

 

With that said, I completely understand why they would choose Nola over Kolek. Kolek would go against everything that Hawk (mouthpiece of the organization?) has preached against.

[DirtySox]

He has incredible command. Change-up got away from him in recent years.

 

Fantastic pitchability. Great makeup as well.

[royoung]

It's a VERY realistic scenario. If Rodon goes 1.1, the consensus seems to be Jackson goes 1.2, leaving Aiken to fall in our laps.

 

I think saying Jackson is the "consensus" to go to Miami is a big stretch. There was some rumor from a Cubs blogger that they had a deal with him. That's not really news, most teams at the top have handshake deals with many players, it's just good sense to know what kind of dollars you can expect when you select someone.

 

I would love Jackson to the Marlins as much as anyone because how much it helps the Sox, but I give it a 20% chance, with Rodon/Aiken the more realistic possibility.

[oneofthemikes]

Two seam FB that tops in the mid 90's, potential plus curve and change, supposed to be very good control/command.

 

This. His command is his biggest selling point right now. Very advanced pitchability. Plus fastball and a couple other potential plus offerings.

[fathom]

Fantastic pitchability. Great makeup as well.

 

He seems like the type of pitcher who would absolutely dominate A ball if they send him there after he signs due to his command. I know a lot of people disagree with this philosophy, but I could understand why the Sox would go after a guy that can contribute in the majors in the next year or so. I'm sure they want to put the most competitive team out on the field they can in two years with Abreu and Sale in their peak years.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Aiken

Rodon

 

 

 

 

Nola

 

 

With that said, I completely understand why they would choose Nola over Kolek. Kolek would go against everything that Hawk (mouthpiece of the organization?) has preached against.

Sign me up for this list. Though I'm shuffling Aiken and Rodon back and fourth.

[royoung]

Aiken

Rodon

 

 

 

 

Nola

 

 

With that said, I completely understand why they would choose Nola over Kolek. Kolek would go against everything that Hawk (mouthpiece of the organization?) has preached against.

 

I view Hawk more as the senile grandfather of the organization. Is a dignified figure in theory, but in reality is kind of a embarrassment.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

This is a huge pick today. Can't let it blow up in our faces. I trust the front office right now

[fathom]

Sign me up for this list. Though I'm shuffling Aiken and Rodon back and fourth.

 

I'm a fan of pitchers that don't have to rely on their slider to get hitters out, especially due to the difference in baseballs from college to the pros. Thus, I'd put Aiken above Rodon.

[caulfield12]

Mike Leake, Nola is said to have higher upside than Leake.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2082398...ry=Aaron%20Nola

[DirtySox]

I believe Keith Law has a new mock up this morning with the Sox taking Nola. Not an insider though, so can't verify.

[Dick Allen]

I believe Keith Law has a new mock up this morning with the Sox taking Nola. Not an insider though, so can't verify.

Didn't he say just a couple of days ago Kolek to the Sox was the biggest lock of the draft?

[Buehrle>Wood]

I'm a fan of pitchers that don't have to rely on their slider to get hitters out, especially due to the difference in baseballs from college to the pros. Thus, I'd put Aiken above Rodon.

Agree with that and part of why I'd have Aiken ever so slightly above Rodon. I'm going to be estactic with either. I think they're extremely close despite being 2 completely different situations.

[ptatc]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2082398...ry=Aaron%20Nola

He throws from a really low arm slot. He doesn't hide the ball well at all. I wonder if this will make him vulnerable to LH hitters at the next level.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If the Sox are split on Kolek/Nola it's just because they are afraid.

 

Upside on a healthy Nola realistically is going to be a 3 type of guy. He'll get there quicker, and if he does well then he's probably easier to extend. Downside #1 is he loses stuff and is a MLB #5 starter or reliever. Downside #2 is he just gets hurt and flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Kolek to take this guy, no matter what Nola does, if Kolek turns out you're going to have to live with letting your same-city rival or your same-division rival get an ace because you were too scared to put your balls on the line. And for that you would deserve to be fired.

 

Upside on a healthy Kolek realistically is going to be a 1-3 type of guy, depending almost entirely on his mental ability & composure on the mound along with his breaking ball, probably just one of the slider/curve to go with a change. If the secondary stuff comes along and he's a gamer on the mound, he's a true ace. Kolek might take an extra 1-1.5 years, still putting him as a fit with our core. Kolek would cost more money though if he does really well, and we'd have to be more aggressive in pursuing an extension to buy out his arb years. Downside #1 is he loses stuff or doesn't have the mental makeup and is more like a Gavin Floyd #3 type. Downside #2 is he also flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Nola to take Kolek, nodoby f***ing cares. No matter what Nola does, you're not missing anything in Nola you can't acquire through lesser means. From a hotseat standpoint, Kolek and his upside is the safer pick.

 

Then you have the trade value perspective. Let's say whoever you pick is going to be packaged in a big deal for a young star player. The next time there's one of these Stanton types out there, or whoever, what do you think the team you're dealing with would rather have, Kolek or Nola? If you have any worries whatsoever on Kolek once he's in your system, you can always deal him off for a haul assuming he's healthy and you're getting the deal done in time.

 

The game of baseball is based around pitching. Assuming 2 players are both healthy (and there is NO reason to assume Kolek is an injury risk while Nola is not, that's absurd, all pitchers are risks) and also assuming both players have the proper mental aspects/composure on the mound, the bigger, nastier guy with the much better arm is the one you want on the mound because he is going to have the best chance between the two of them of consistently getting hitters out.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Didn't he say just a couple of days ago Kolek to the Sox was the biggest lock of the draft?

Yeah, maybe he has Kolek going top 2. UT that would be something we haven't heard of in forever and goes against the last few days of rumors.

[royoung]

I believe Keith Law has a new mock up this morning with the Sox taking Nola. Not an insider though, so can't verify.

 

Correct. He has Kolek falling to #8 which seems to be the buzz. His analysis on Nola to the Sox is below:

 

"Analysis: I've heard they'd now take Nola over Tyler Kolek, although Kolek would still be in play here. I have conflicting notes on whether they'd take Carlos Rodon if he gets here."

[ptatc]

If the Sox are split on Kolek/Nola it's just because they are afraid.

 

Upside on a healthy Nola realistically is going to be a 3 type of guy. He'll get there quicker, and if he does well then he's probably easier to extend. Downside #1 is he loses stuff and is a MLB #5 starter or reliever. Downside #2 is he just gets hurt and flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Kolek to take this guy, no matter what Nola does, if Kolek turns out you're going to have to live with letting your same-city rival or your same-division rival get an ace because you were too scared to put your balls on the line. And for that you would deserve to be fired.

 

Upside on a healthy Kolek realistically is going to be a 1-3 type of guy, depending almost entirely on his mental ability & composure on the mound along with his breaking ball, probably just one of the slider/curve to go with a change. If the secondary stuff comes along and he's a gamer on the mound, he's a true ace. Kolek might take an extra 1-1.5 years, still putting him as a fit with our core. Kolek would cost more money though if he does really well, and we'd have to be more aggressive in pursuing an extension to buy out his arb years. Downside #1 is he loses stuff or doesn't have the mental makeup and is more like a Gavin Floyd #3 type. Downside #2 is he also flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Nola to take Kolek, nodoby f***ing cares. No matter what Nola does, you're not missing anything in Nola you can't acquire through lesser means. From a hotseat standpoint, Kolek and his upside is the safer pick.

 

Then you have the trade value perspective. Let's say whoever you pick is going to be packaged in a big deal for a young star player. The next time there's one of these Stanton types out there, or whoever, what do you think the team you're dealing with would rather have, Kolek or Nola? If you have any worries whatsoever on Kolek once he's in your system, you can always deal him off for a haul assuming he's healthy and you're getting the deal done in time.

 

The game of baseball is based around pitching. Assuming 2 players are both healthy (and there is NO reason to assume Kolek is an injury risk while Nola is not, that's absurd, all pitchers are risks) and also assuming both players have the proper mental aspects/composure on the mound, the bigger, nastier guy with the much better arm is the one you want on the mound because he is going to have the best chance between the two of them of consistently getting hitters out.

There is something to be said for the still good stuff, with better command and proven against more advanced competition.

[caulfield12]

This thread will be fun to revisit 3-5 years from now.

[Dick Allen]

I view Hawk more as the senile grandfather of the organization. Is a dignified figure in theory, but in reality is kind of a embarrassment.

Hawk is far more dialed in than you think. They still seek his opinions on players, and he talks to scouts all the time.