Sox Draft Carlos Rodon> Draft Day Discussion Thread

[Eminor3rd]

20 percent is way too much for Aiken falling to 4.

 

Idk. I can see it: Astros take Rodon, who the Marlins wanted. Marlins then take Jackson, who is 2nd on their board. Then all it takes is either of the rumors that Sox love Kolek OR Nola to be true.

[chitownsportsfan]

He really likes Hahn and what he's done.

 

It's hard not to. If Garcia wasn't injured and was hitting like 280/320/450 a lot of people would probably be talking about on of the best single offseasons in Sox history given the amount of money they didn't spend and how improved the team is. Granted Garcia came over before the offseason but that's semantics as they were in full rebuild mode by June last year.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Idk. I can see it: Astros take Rodon, who the Marlins wanted. Marlins then take Jackson, who is 2nd on their board. Then all it takes is either of the rumors that Sox love Kolek OR Nola to be true.

Still a lot lower than 20 percent that happens.

[Dick Allen]

Idk. I can see it: Astros take Rodon, who the Marlins wanted. Marlins then take Jackson, who is 2nd on their board. Then all it takes is either of the rumors that Sox love Kolek OR Nola to be true.

But the odds of all that happening have to be less than 1 in 5.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Is Wacha considered an ace? Nola sounds like the closest thing to a Wacha type in this draft. Nola may not have the ace ceiling, but he probably has the lowest chance at busting. I prefer Aiken, Rodon, and Jackson to him, and really Hoffman too on a steep discount, but Kolek seems too much in the Broxton/Bobby Jenks mold that I am not sure he would be a better pick. The baseball draft is really a crapshoot. I am for drafting which ever guy allows you to be more aggressive in pursuing lottery tickets later in the draft instead of rolling the dice on one high upside guy and then having to pinch pennies on org players in the rest of the top 10.

I thought the same until someone posted about the 90% rule where you are forced to offer at least 90% slot or you lose the pick. I didn't know that, I was thinking of how awesome it could be if you picked up Hoffman for $2M or so and put another $3.5M into overslot guys, but since you can't do that, I don't think going underslot for someone who is not BPA would really help all that much. Saving $500K or so and redistributing it isn't going to convince any kid with a strong commitment to sign. Just not worth it.

[The Ultimate Champion]

But the odds of all that happening have to be less than 1 in 5.

Sounds pretty realistic to me. If the choice with Houston is Rodon vs. Aiken 50/50 and Marlins have it 50/50 Jackson vs. Rodon then there's a 50% chance (in a vacuum) that Aiken falls to us.

[Eminor3rd]

Still a lot lower than 20 percent that happens.

 

 

But the odds of all that happening have to be less than 1 in 5.

 

 

Sounds pretty realistic to me. If the choice with Houston is Rodon vs. Aiken 50/50 and Marlins have it 50/50 Jackson vs. Rodon then there's a 50% chance (in a vacuum) that Aiken falls to us.

 

Yeah to me it really just comes down to the Astros pick, which has to be at least 50% Rodon, and the White Sox preference for college arms. The Miami pick of Jackson seems solid if Rodon is gone. That feels like at least 25% to me.

 

So if it's 50% chance that 1 and 2 go "Rodon/Jackson," it seems believeable that there's 50% chance that the Sox choose either Kolek or Nola over Aiken. The odds for two consecutive 50/50's to happen is 25%, right?

Edited June 5, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[BlackSox13]

Yes. Even though Jackson isn't slam dunk to Marlins, there at least seems to be higher probability of Jackson to Marlins than to Houston (from what little we know of Houston's thought process).

 

Having choice among Kolek, Aiken and Nola is really nice.

I will happily take any of those three with Aiken being my first choice but I could flip a coin between Nola and Kolek.

 

I still think people underestimate the fact that Sox could conceivably rate Nola as high because they think he will be a great pitcher not necessarily just because he is "safe".

Exactly. Nola put up very good numbers the last two seasons at LSU, yet most are still so focused on Rodon. I just don't get it.

[harfman77]

I thought the same until someone posted about the 90% rule where you are forced to offer at least 90% slot or you lose the pick. I didn't know that, I was thinking of how awesome it could be if you picked up Hoffman for $2M or so and put another $3.5M into overslot guys, but since you can't do that, I don't think going underslot for someone who is not BPA would really help all that much. Saving $500K or so and redistributing it isn't going to convince any kid with a strong commitment to sign. Just not worth it.

 

 

Really, you still can if you work it out ahead of the draft. The Sox could call up Hoffman and say "We see that chances are you end up with the BJ's at #11. If you agree to #9 slot money we will draft you at #3 and you will make so extra $$." If he says no you move on, if he says yes you save $2.8M that you can spread out through the rest of the draft, plus you get the guy you really wanted anyway. Obviously you need to have a deal in place before the draft, but it is feasible. If the Sox could get get Hoffman, Weaver, and then someone like Keller or Mac Marshall that would fill up a lot of holes in the orgs vacuum of top level pitching prospects. Not the "safe" thing to do, but since the draft is a gamble anyway, I wouldn't be against this approach.

[knightni]

If they can't get Rodon or Aiken, I'd almost prefer Jackson to Nola or Kolek. The #1 hitting prospect in the draft is hard to pass up.

[oldsox]

I will happily take any of those three with Aiken being my first choice but I could flip a coin between Nola and Kolek.

 

 

Exactly. Nola put up very good numbers the last two seasons at LSU, yet most are still so focused on Rodon. I just don't get it.

Rodon has a hot girlfriend.

[Feeky Magee]

If the choice with Houston is Rodon vs. Aiken 50/50 and Marlins have it 50/50 Jackson vs. Rodon then there's a 50% chance (in a vacuum) that Aiken falls to us.

Err...

[The Ultimate Champion]

Let's say this is the scenario:

 

Houston wants one of the lefties. They like Aiken a little bit better, bu they just called up Singleton, Springer, etc. they signed Feldman, the on-field product has gotten a ton better. AND they think Rodon is an ace. Well, they just can't take the chance on a high school arm, so they take Rodon because they think they can make for an interesting 2015 team and they think they're a 2016 contender at the latest.

 

Then with Miami, they *really* want a hitter, and Jackson is their guy. BUT they just can't pass on the kid of Cuban heritage to go along with their other kid of Cuban heritage at the top of their rotation. They want a hitter and there's no reason in their mind to take a high school pitcher when they have more than enough pitching as it is, but they just CAN'T pass on Rodon. No way.

 

If this happens Aiken is our pick.

 

Now that I've thought about it a bit, I think this may actually happen. Astros will want to contend, Marlins need the hitter and Rodon being gone makes it an easy choice. Nola to the Cubs and Kolek to the Twins.

 

Does anyone REALLY believe that if Aiken does fall to us the Sox will pick anyone else, no matter who is left on the board? Aiken's Coop's guy, if he's there then he's ours.

[flavum]

This just in:

 

There's a 100% chance we'll know who the Sox take in 5 hours.

[BlackSox13]

Rodon has a hot girlfriend.

In today's sad society, I wouldn't be surprised if that was a factor for some.

[SCCWS]

I believe they ask his opinions as he has been around the game of baseball for 50 years, but I don't think he's a big influence. If anything, Steve Stone's brain would be the one to pick, as we are considering several different pitchers.

 

How about picking the brain of the guy or gal who said take SALE. Hopefully he/she is still in the organization.

Edited June 5, 2014 by SCCWS

[The Ultimate Champion]

Err...

What do you not get? If the Marlins choice is between a guy who is there and a guy who is not there, then they will obviously pick the guy who is there. If it's Rodon vs. Aiken for Houston and Rodon and Jackson for the Marlins, then a selection of Rodon by the Astros (assuming 50/50) leaves Aiken to us.

 

The Marlins draft board is going to be set by now in all likelihood. If it goes Rodon/Jackson or Jackson/Rodon 1/2 then as long as HOU takes Rodon, Aiken will be ours.

[chw42]

In today's sad society, I wouldn't be surprised if that was a factor for some.

 

Heh, reminds me of the Moneyball movie where the old scouts were asking about a prospect's girlfriend.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Sounds pretty realistic to me. If the choice with Houston is Rodon vs. Aiken 50/50 and Marlins have it 50/50 Jackson vs. Rodon then there's a 50% chance (in a vacuum) that Aiken falls to us.

 

 

Yeah to me it really just comes down to the Astros pick, which has to be at least 50% Rodon, and the White Sox preference for college arms. The Miami pick of Jackson seems solid if Rodon is gone. That feels like at least 25% to me.

 

So if it's 50% chance that 1 and 2 go "Rodon/Jackson," it seems believeable that there's 50% chance that the Sox choose either Kolek or Nola over Aiken. The odds for two consecutive 50/50's to happen is 25%, right?

I think tuc read it wrong. It's about Aiken to the Cubs. I'll do the ridiculous and handicap this though. I think I'm giving him very rough odds considering he's the consensus 1 but here we go:

 

60% percent he goes 1

 

50% percent he goes 2 if he's still available

 

50% percent he goes 3 if he's available.

 

 

 

That's a 10% chance he's there for the Cubs. It's actually lower than that though because I'm not accounting for him actually getting picked. Someone with more time/smarter/better at math can do that. Should be like 5 or 6 percent.

 

[harfman77]

John Curtiss is an interesting guy to look at in rounds 3-5. He was a prospect out of HS, pitched well as starter as a frosh, had TJ as a soph, came back as a closer this season throwing in the mid-upper 90's and has the stuff to start again. He is a draft eligible soph after red-shirting last season.

 

https://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1627764

[cabiness42]

I think tuc read it wrong. It's about Aiken to the Cubs. I'll do the ridiculous and handicap this though. I think I'm giving him very rough odds considering he's the consensus 1 but here we go:

 

60% percent he goes 1

 

50% percent he goes 2 if he's still available

 

50% percent he goes 3 if he's available.

 

That's a 10% chance he's there for the Cubs. It's actually lower than that though because I'm not accounting for him actually getting picked. Someone with more time/smarter/better at math can do that. Should be like 5 or 6 percent.

 

No, based on your assumptions your math is correct.

 

60% chance he goes 1 means there is a 40% chance he does not.

 

50% chance he goes 2 if available means that there is a 20% chance he goes 2 and a 20% chance he slips beyond 2

 

50% chance he goes 3 if available means that there is a 10% chance he goes 3 and a 10% chance he slips beyond 3.

 

I'm not judging your assumptions one way or the other, just saying that based on your assumptions the math works out.

[Baron]

I cant wait to watch the Cubs fan's reactions when they go underslot

[SCCWS]

We will draft Kolek at 90% slot and then take Hoffman in the second round with the leftover bonus going to Hoffman as well as 10% of our Round 3 pitcher who will also be awesome.

 

And then we will win. Everything.

 

Doubt Hoffman will be there. Story in Providence Journal last weekend was Red Sox liked him( they often choose players who drop due to injury when picking in mid-late 20's.) But they felt he would be going 15-20

 

[flavum]

Over/Under on how many times Bud Selig says 2000 instead of 2014? 3.5?

 

Last year for Los Angelees as well.

[The Ultimate Champion]

To me it sounds like we're probably:

 

Aiken

Rodon

Kolek or Nola, weighing this one.

 

If that's the case then we're getting a lefty should anyone else sneak in 1 or 2. That hinges on the Astros then because if they go Rodon we could still get Aiken, but if they go Aiken we'll have to hope the Marlins pass on the obvious fit in Rodon, and that just seems unlikely.

 

I don't want Nola so I hope the Astros take anyone but Aiken at #1.