ScottyDo Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 So I keep seeing/hearing people say that the Cubs went underslot in the first two rounds so they could save money from their total allotment to go overslot in future rounds. That's all well and good, but here's what I don't get: Unless I'm mistaken, you're only allowed to go over your slot value by, like, 15% before the penalties become prohibitive. If you are saving money for later rounds, the value of that percentage drops because that slot number the percentage is based on drops, too, right? So not only is your slot number going from, say $3M in the first round to #1.5M in the 2nd round, but your total overslot wiggle room has gone from $450k to $225K. By the time you're in the 4th round the slot number is ~$350k, and you can only go about $50k overslot. So if there's a kid that's considered difficult to sign, you can't wait until the 4th round because $400k isn't gonna do it for him. So what I'm saying is... What? How does it make sense to save money early if you can't use it to overpay signability guys with any significant incentive? What's the point in saving $1-2M on the front end to max out unpersuasive deals on the back end? I'm sure a baseball-savvy person here can explain the theory to me, because I'm sure the Cubs FO isn't just a bunch of idiots. Are the penalties for going significantly overslot not as bad as I think? Is there something else at play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 So I keep seeing/hearing people say that the Cubs went underslot in the first two rounds so they could save money from their total allotment to go overslot in future rounds. That's all well and good, but here's what I don't get: Unless I'm mistaken, you're only allowed to go over your slot value by, like, 15% before the penalties become prohibitive. If you are saving money for later rounds, the value of that percentage drops because that slot number the percentage is based on drops, too, right? So not only is your slot number going from, say $3M in the first round to #1.5M in the 2nd round, but your total overslot wiggle room has gone from $450k to $225K. By the time you're in the 4th round the slot number is ~$350k, and you can only go about $50k overslot. So if there's a kid that's considered difficult to sign, you can't wait until the 4th round because $400k isn't gonna do it for him. So what I'm saying is... What? How does it make sense to save money early if you can't use it to overpay signability guys with any significant incentive? What's the point in saving $1-2M on the front end to max out unpersuasive deals on the back end? I'm sure a baseball-savvy person here can explain the theory to me, because I'm sure the Cubs FO isn't just a bunch of idiots. Are the penalties for going significantly overslot not as bad as I think? Is there something else at play? I can't find anything that says defin.itively whether or not there are penalties for going over slot on an individual pick. I do know there are penalties for going over your total allotment for the draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 7, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) I can't find anything that says defin.itively whether or not there are penalties for going over slot on an individual pick. I do know there are penalties for going over your total allotment for the draft There are no penalties for going over on an individual pick. Penalties are for going over your full draft allotment. YOu could literally give all of your entire allotment to one player, not sign another player over $100k, and pay no penalties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyDo Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 Ahhh okay that explains it. I was really struggling to wrap my head around that one. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jun 7, 2014 -> 10:59 AM) Ahhh okay that explains it. I was really struggling to wrap my head around that one. Thanks! Essentially MLB takes and assigned a value to each individual draft pick. For example, Say Round 1, pick one is $7 million. Round 1, pick two is $6.5 million, Round 1, pick three is $6.0 million, etc. all of the way down to the last pick of the 10th round. They then take all of the picks a team has, and add up all of those assigned values, and that is a teams draft allotment. Any contract in the first 10 rounds counts fully towards that number. Then after round 10, any contract over $100k, has just the portion over $100k, also added to the pool (so if signed for $150k in round 15, $50k more gets added to their total). So after all those things are added up, they have to be under the allotment assigned to the team, or they start seeing penalties based on how far over you are. If you are less than 5% over, you get a 75% fine on your overage. Over 5%, they start taking away draft picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 So why don't teams just take the tough sign guys earlier so their slot is better than 100K and they don't have to worry about scraping up funds from other savings to offer more? Why not just take BMDO in round 5 and offer him $375,000+ instead of taking him in round 13 and hoping you can offer him the same amount by cutting costs earlier in the draft? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigruss Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 QUOTE (TRU @ Jun 17, 2014 -> 02:13 PM) So why don't teams just take the tough sign guys earlier so their slot is better than 100K and they don't have to worry about scraping up funds from other savings to offer more? Why not just take BMDO in round 5 and offer him $375,000+ instead of taking him in round 13 and hoping you can offer him the same amount by cutting costs earlier in the draft? Especially if it's a HS player who really wants to go to college then you're risking losing that pick completely. Most teams want to make sure they are getting some talent guaranteed and will take the riskier player later, so if the hard to sign guy doesnt come then they aren't completely devoid of talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Jun 17, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) Especially if it's a HS player who really wants to go to college then you're risking losing that pick completely. Most teams want to make sure they are getting some talent guaranteed and will take the riskier player later, so if the hard to sign guy doesnt come then they aren't completely devoid of talent. Id rather risk taking the talented HS player there and getting him into your system that much earlier than taking a college senior much earlier than you should to save 200K so you can just offer that same high school kid the same money later in the draft. Of course, it may not all work out that way but this is just how I am looking at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 QUOTE (TRU @ Jun 17, 2014 -> 02:44 PM) Id rather risk taking the talented HS player there and getting him into your system that much earlier than taking a college senior much earlier than you should to save 200K so you can just offer that same high school kid the same money later in the draft. Of course, it may not all work out that way but this is just how I am looking at it. If you lose the HS kid, you also lose his slot value. If you pick him outside of the 10th round, there is no downside to losing him, in terms of bonus allotments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 17, 2014 -> 02:48 PM) If you lose the HS kid, you also lose his slot value. If you pick him outside of the 10th round, there is no downside to losing him, in terms of bonus allotments. This is probably the most important aspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 7, 2014 -> 08:52 AM) There are no penalties for going over on an individual pick. Penalties are for going over your full draft allotment. YOu could literally give all of your entire allotment to one player, not sign another player over $100k, and pay no penalties. Not your whole allotment. You would have to give rounds 2-10 something or you lose the slot value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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