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Garfein: Sox could trade Beckham for pitching


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QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 04:26 PM)
Even if Gordon has improved, he's about to get expensive and then we lose control the year after that. Even if he has turned a corner, it makes all kinds of sense to cut ties with him.

 

Put me on the record - if we sell high on Gordon and he turns into a perennial all-star, I don't care. We've seen too much bad for this to make sense. There is little incentive to keep him considering how pricey he gets next year in his final year of arb...and if he becomes worth that high price tag, then we have to pay him an assload as a FA to keep him around. I'll let him prove himself for somebody else and we can always think about signing him as a FA.

 

For now, we have Semien, Johnson, Sanchez, and Saladino that could all contribute at that position. Hell, I'm still on the "teach Conor Gillaspie 2B" bandwagon.

I'm all for trading Beckham as long as we get something more than a Leury Garcia or a Matt Davidson for him.

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QUOTE (South Side Fireworks Man @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 05:55 PM)
I'm all for trading Beckham as long as we get something more than a Leury Garcia or a Matt Davidson for him.

Um, Matt Davidson was considered one of the best 3b prospects in the game. I would deal Gordon for a top 100 spect, at a position of need, playing in AA instantly. Actually faster.

Edited by bigruss22
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We've discussed this before but trading Beckham is a weird proposition cause of his status as a top draft pick. It does affect the mindset of the Sox even though he's pretty much stunk (with the exception of hot stretches and this season).

I agree with the poster who said we should deal him to some team that needs a second baseman and actually try to acquire 2-3 solid to good prospects, at least somebody as good on paper as A. Garcia.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 02:47 PM)
2B is one of our few positions of true depth. As the most expensive and least controllable member of that group, Beckham has to go.

What do you suppose he would make next year? I'm not going to cut ties with the guy now if he plays well simply because it's taken him longer to reach his potential than we thought. He's still just 27. Obviously it depends on the return, but I'm not going to just dump him for nothing out of principle.

 

And Jake, if we sell now, and he becomes a perennial all-star, that is not selling high. That's selling low.

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Trade Gordon while he's still hot at the plate. Nice hit against Verlander though, even better because it's front of Kate Upton.

 

I was thinking of who some trade partner could be and I thought of San Francisco, Toronto, Baltimore and maybe the Dodgers who can trade for Gordon and move Dee Gordon to SS and Hanley at 3B.

Edited by Joshua Strong
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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 09:21 PM)
I was thinking of who some trade partner could be and I thought of San Francisco, Toronto, Baltimore and maybe the Dodgers who can trade for Gordon and move Dee Gordon to SS and Hanley at 3B.

I've been thinking along these lines as well. The Sox and Dodgers match up well because of the OF situation: the Sox could use a good one and the Dodgers have one (or two) too many. My dream would be to somehow pry Joc Pederson from them. I don't think Beckham gets that done, but maybe if there is some kind of package deal or if Alexei is involved there's a slight chance.

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The Dodgers aren't trading for an infielder. They have Uribe coming off the DL shortly and have Corey Seager about 2 years away. I don't think people realize how good Uribe has been the past couple years. He was a 5 WAR player last year and was on the same pace this year prior to his injury.

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Gordon is such an enigma.

 

Count me as one that was carried away with him when he first came up. I'm experienced enough that I didn't go "all-in" in the hype. But, I also didn't think that the Michael Young or even (gasp) Paul Molitor comps were completely laughable. In hindsight, clearly they were. One never makes comps like that without a minimum of 2-3 years of consistent performance.

 

That said, Gordon has NEVER looked better at the plate than he's looked since he's come back from his DL stint this year. The annual "my mind and process is good" puff piece seems different when it's now coupled with good health. And perhaps the real maturity that baseball history shows DOES happen for some guys 5-6 years into their career.

 

The big thing to me is that while (like all hitters) he'll have streaks good and bad, at the moment, he rarely if ever looks OVER-MATCHED. And lord knows for long stretches, if not entire seasons, over the past 2-3 years he's looked over-matched. Against top starters, against the best closers, he looks capable of getting good cuts and squaring up balls.

 

Dude has broken our little Sox fan hearts before. And certainly could do it again. I see the argument about selling when the stock is at least slightly high (compared to where it's been). On the other hand, the GB of the past 4-6 weeks has been the GB we've been hoping to see for so long now. Now that he's returned, do we really want to get rid of him? Especially when guys like Semien, Micah Johnson, Sanchez, and their ilk are no sure things either.

 

I'd listen to offers. But, I wouldn't give him away. It would take a solid offer for me to consider it. And I'd have a lot of anxiety about it.

 

(Not to get into an extended argument about his D ... which gets a lot of play on Soxtalk ... but I think he's overall better than most think he is. Sure, his range isn't all that good ... but he's smart, sure-handed (generally), turns the DP with the best of 'em, and really does have an excellent arm at second.)

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 11, 2014 -> 09:01 PM)
What do you suppose he would make next year? I'm not going to cut ties with the guy now if he plays well simply because it's taken him longer to reach his potential than we thought. He's still just 27. Obviously it depends on the return, but I'm not going to just dump him for nothing out of principle.

 

And Jake, if we sell now, and he becomes a perennial all-star, that is not selling high. That's selling low.

 

He'll cost about $6m (half of the entire value of the Keppinger contract) and another season of Semien/Sanchez/Johnson/Saladino being forced out of position or stuck in AAA.

 

I'm not saying that logjam has been or will be a problem THIS year, but it probably will next year. And it'll be Gordon free agent year. It's time to s*** or get off the pot with him.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 09:20 AM)
He'll cost about $6m (half of the entire value of the Keppinger contract) and another season of Semien/Sanchez/Johnson/Saladino being forced out of position or stuck in AAA.

 

I'm not saying that logjam has been or will be a problem THIS year, but it probably will next year. And it'll be Gordon free agent year. It's time to s*** or get off the pot with him.

The logjam could thin itself out over the next year. Once PK and Dunn leave, Gillaspie will/should play more backup 3B and do some DHing. Beckham and Alexei are both movable.

We're also woefully short of decent outfielders, so any of those guys could be moved for a similar OF prospect.

Don't force a trade of Beckham, but certainly listen.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 09:20 AM)
He'll cost about $6m (half of the entire value of the Keppinger contract) and another season of Semien/Sanchez/Johnson/Saladino being forced out of position or stuck in AAA.

 

I'm not saying that logjam has been or will be a problem THIS year, but it probably will next year. And it'll be Gordon free agent year. It's time to s*** or get off the pot with him.

I wouldn't trade someone just because you have suspects in the minors waiting. You trade someone because you can get something good for them and the suspects make it more palatable. The caveat being if his contract demands will cause budget problems. Beckham has not played well enough that his salary will be cost prohibitive.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 08:32 AM)
The logjam could thin itself out over the next year. Once PK and Dunn leave, Gillaspie will/should play more backup 3B and do some DHing. Beckham and Alexei are both movable.

We're also woefully short of decent outfielders, so any of those guys could be moved for a similar OF prospect.

Don't force a trade of Beckham, but certainly listen.

 

And/or Semien and Micah Johnson become part of the outfield solution.

 

Granted, it's hard to imagine Eaton and one of those two putting up 675-725 OPS numbers together.

 

Eaton's got to return to his 750-775 form...more walks, more stolen bases and an improved steal percentage. But there's no doubt we're a much more formidable line-up with a healthy/pesky Adam at the top.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 08:35 AM)
The Dodgers aren't trading for an infielder. They have Uribe coming off the DL shortly and have Corey Seager about 2 years away. I don't think people realize how good Uribe has been the past couple years. He was a 5 WAR player last year and was on the same pace this year prior to his injury.

Ha, yeah, I did forget about Uribe. Good ol' Juany. They also have Justin Turner who's been playing fairly well lately. So they do seem to be set infield-wise, barring another big injury. Still, Pederson is just languishing away at AAA...

 

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QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 10:03 AM)
Ha, yeah, I did forget about Uribe. Good ol' Juany. They also have Justin Turner who's been playing fairly well lately. So they do seem to be set infield-wise, barring another big injury. Still, Pederson is just languishing away at AAA...

 

I'm wondering what it would take to get Joc

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 09:42 AM)
And/or Semien and Micah Johnson become part of the outfield solution.

 

Granted, it's hard to imagine Eaton and one of those two putting up 675-725 OPS numbers together.

 

Eaton's got to return to his 750-775 form...more walks, more stolen bases and an improved steal percentage. But there's no doubt we're a much more formidable line-up with a healthy/pesky Adam at the top.

Honestly, with Beckham hitting 2nd and then ABreu, I'm not all that interested in Eaton doing much stealing. Not worth the risk. Now more walks would help.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 10:15 AM)
I'm wondering what it would take to get Joc

 

I'm thinking he's close to untouchable for them. It's just a matter of time before they find someone to take Kemp, Crawford, or Ethier off their hands for half the salary or so, and Pederson will step right in.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 10:27 AM)
I'm thinking he's close to untouchable for them. It's just a matter of time before they find someone to take Kemp, Crawford, or Ethier off their hands for half the salary or so, and Pederson will step right in.

 

This is more along the lines of how I feel. They would rather eat money and move one or more of those guys.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 07:20 AM)
He'll cost about $6m (half of the entire value of the Keppinger contract) and another season of Semien/Sanchez/Johnson/Saladino being forced out of position or stuck in AAA.

 

I'm not saying that logjam has been or will be a problem THIS year, but it probably will next year. And it'll be Gordon free agent year. It's time to s*** or get off the pot with him.

I've not seen anyone at this point who should displace him because they offer similar or equal production. I fully understand the concept of cost savings, but you don't dump a player for $6 million if he's finally fulfilling some of his untapped potential because you are going to be stubborn about it. We've resisted the temptation to sell low on him for this long, so now he finally starts looking like the hitter you thought he would be, at the age of 27 no less, and you dump him for nothing because of $6 million? That is the epitome of being short-sighted.

 

Again, obviously it depends on the return. If someone offers a legitimate piece for the future, a piece of need, then sure, go ahead and put your faith in Semien or whomever. But barring that, and I really do doubt you get that kind of offer, what is the risk in holding him? If he flames out again, you non-tender him next year and escape the $6 million price tag and let one of the kids take over. But if this is for real, and you trade him for some marginal prospect or reliever so you can make a futile run at a one-game playoff, and then he continues to hit like this for another team after you've endured all the growing pains of his development, well then you've really made a stupid move.

 

 

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I really think people need to get off the Micah Johnson to the Outfield bandwagon. People want that because of organizational need, but in terms of the likelihood of success, I think some of you are burying your head in the sand. Let's look at some reasons why Johnson to the OF is a good idea, in terms of player qualities:

 

1. He's fast

 

Now let's look at some reasons it isn't a good idea:

 

1. He's been an infielder his entire career, even back to college and high school. Going INF to OF isn't just changing gloves - he doesn't know how to take routes, or how to read those types of hits off the bat. Those skills take time to learn.

 

2. His arm isn't all that strong, which would be exposed in the OF

 

3. His elbow ligament issues, while surgically solved, are likely the result of problematic throwing mechanics. If you start having him make 200 foot throws regularly, his injury risk goes up substantially.

 

4. Unless you can make him a CF, which seems incredibly unlikely given 1 through 3 above, his bat becomes less premium in the corner OF positions than it is at 2B. You are essentially downgrading his offensive value to the club.

 

5. It has been noted multiple times, even by Johnson himself, that part of his issue defensively has been a lack of focus and setup. Putting him in the outfield, further from the action, isn't going to help that (and might make it worse).

 

Point is, let's focus on getting improvement where he stands, as there is a much higher likelihood of success for that than there is moving him to the OF just because he has wheels.

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 12, 2014 -> 09:28 AM)
I've not seen anyone at this point who should displace him because they offer similar or equal production. I fully understand the concept of cost savings, but you don't dump a player for $6 million if he's finally fulfilling some of his untapped potential because you are going to be stubborn about it. We've resisted the temptation to sell low on him for this long, so now he finally starts looking like the hitter you thought he would be, at the age of 27 no less, and you dump him for nothing because of $6 million? That is the epitome of being short-sighted.

 

Again, obviously it depends on the return. If someone offers a legitimate piece for the future, a piece of need, then sure, go ahead and put your faith in Semien or whomever. But barring that, and I really do doubt you get that kind of offer, what is the risk in holding him? If he flames out again, you non-tender him next year and escape the $6 million price tag and let one of the kids take over. But if this is for real, and you trade him for some marginal prospect or reliever so you can make a futile run at a one-game playoff, and then he continues to hit like this for another team after you've endured all the growing pains of his development, well then you've really made a stupid move.

Very well put (as usual)! I couldn't agree more!!

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