Thoughts on Carlos Rodon

[Dam8610]

I didn't want to call it a "scouting report" because I don't think I have that good of an eye, but since the White Sox picked Carlos Rodon, I've found as much film on him as I could find and watched it, and these are the impressions I came away with.

 

Pitches

Rodon appears to have four pitches, three of which grade out to me as potential plus offerings. Rodon's Slider, Two-Seam Fastball, and Four-Seam Fastball all grade out plus, with a Change that could develop into a decent-good pitch. Below I grade these pitches as current and potential.

 

Slider 70/80: This pitch is currently Rodon's bread and butter. When it's on, the movement is incredible, and when it's off, it's still a damn good pitch that he's able to exercise excellent control over, hitting either corner of the plate for strikes with it seemingly at will. His command of his Slider is what makes it his best pitch currently, and it is definitely a plus-plus, swing-and-miss type of offering that will only get better over time.

 

Two-Seam Fastball 60/80: After hearing all the hype about Rodon's Slider, watching him pitch and seeing this offering was like opening a present on Christmas morning as a kid. The movement on this pitch is disgusting, it looks like a faster version of his Slider. This, in my opinion, has the potential to be his best offering, and a devastating out pitch for years to come. If Rodon develops into a frontline starter, it will be the combination of this pitch and the Slider that will put him there. He's going to need to develop better control over it, which is the only reason I don't grade it ahead of the Slider now. Once he has that control, though, I believe this will be his best pitch and his out pitch. It is also potentially a plus-plus, swing-and-miss offering.

 

Four-Seam Fastball 55/70: This may be illusory and telling of how little I know, especially since I've only ever seen Rodon listed as a three pitch pitcher, but I'm fairly certain in the video I've watched (none of which had radar guns on them), I've seen a Four-Seam Fastball that he rarely throws. That said, when I've seen him throw it, he has great command of it, and it pops the catcher's mitt. This pitch has the potential to be plus just because of how hard he throws, but he'll need to work it in a lot more if it's going to get there.

 

Changeup 40/65: Rodon's Changeup is very much a work in progress. It has the downward movement you like to see, and it flashes potential of a swing-and-miss offering at times, but he doesn't have even close to the command he would need for it to be a plus offering. I think this pitch will max out at good, but with the other offerings that's all he'll need, provided he develops those other offerings.

 

Command 45/65: After his Sophomore year, Rodon would have graded out 55-60 in this category, but in his Junior year, he seemed to develop a couple of hitches in his mechanics that need cleaning up. Pitching coaches will need to work with him to get him to complete his delivery and not "overthrow". When his mechanics are off, he puts too much effort into his delivery, and as a result, moves his head during his delivery and loses control of his pitches. Fixing this minor mechanical issue should give him at least good and MAYBE someday plus command of his pitches, but I have doubts on that last part.

 

Projectability

Rodon is a workhorse who looks to be ready to handle a major league workload, and his body and mechanics do not suggest a breakdown. Mechanics are very sound apart from the aforementioned issues in his delivery, and he tends to repeat his delivery very well, especially when he's on. Does not present inverted W in delivery at all (this was something I looked very closely for). Provided he is able to develop better command, Rodon projects as a #1 starter who will pitch 200+ innings each year with a high strikeout rate.

 

Major League ETA

Provided he signs with the White Sox, I see Rodon spending the remainder of the year somewhere high in the minor league system, either Birmingham or Charlotte, mostly to fix his mechanical issues in his delivery. I believe he will make his ML debut as a starting pitcher in early 2015, either April or May.

 

If Rodon develops as he could, Sale and Rodon could give the White Sox the type of one-two punch at the front of the rotation that the Diamondbacks had when they won the World Series, essentially by having arguably the two best starting pitchers in baseball. We can only hope.

 

Please add your thoughts to this, I'm looking for knowledgeable opinions and thoughts on this subject, which is why I decided to post this here.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Speaking to his mechanics, I've seen people draw similarities to Peavy's type of recoil action and I don't think they're wrong. Obviously that was fine for Peavy for a while, but we all know it eventually resulted in Jake Peavy surgury on the detached lat. Not sure if 1 example is reason enough to concern, but it's probably worth mentioning.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Also, do you really see him signing and going straight to AA or AAA? That seems aggressive. Not that the idea of him making the Sox bullpen at some point ISN'T aggressive. But I guess I figured they'd start him in High-A Winston Salem for a few weeks, then maybe go to AA Birmingham if he dominates W-S.

[Dam8610]

Also, do you really see him signing and going straight to AA or AAA? That seems aggressive. Not that the idea of him making the Sox bullpen at some point ISN'T aggressive. But I guess I figured they'd start him in High-A Winston Salem for a few weeks, then maybe go to AA Birmingham if he dominates W-S.

 

My apologies, I didn't clarify. I think Birmingham is the absolute highest they'd start him, more likely Winston-Salem as you said, but I believe he'll spend most of the rest of this year at either Birmingham or Charlotte. Even with the command issues, he's that good in my opinion. That is, of course, if he signs.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Cool write-up

[witesoxfan]

Speaking to his mechanics, I've seen people draw similarities to Peavy's type of recoil action and I don't think they're wrong. Obviously that was fine for Peavy for a while, but we all know it eventually resulted in Jake Peavy surgury on the detached lat. Not sure if 1 example is reason enough to concern, but it's probably worth mentioning.

 

Read: 8 and a half years

[bmags]

Great writeup.

 

Loved hearing about his fastball. As we saw with Sale, pitchers get smarter and more confident in their "non-out" pitches. He may start out with us trusting his slider, but eventually he'll realize how effective a fastball of his speed and caliber can be if placed correctly (and just coming from a left-hander).

 

Then as he ages, we give him a cutter.

 

Anyway Hall of fame.

[southsider2k5]

Read: 8 and a half years

 

I think it also had a lot to do with the funky arm angle he would get into when his shoulder was sore, putting strain in places that weren't used to be strained.

[southsider2k5]

I didn't want to call it a "scouting report" because I don't think I have that good of an eye, but since the White Sox picked Carlos Rodon, I've found as much film on him as I could find and watched it, and these are the impressions I came away with.

 

Pitches

Rodon appears to have four pitches, three of which grade out to me as potential plus offerings. Rodon's Slider, Two-Seam Fastball, and Four-Seam Fastball all grade out plus, with a Change that could develop into a decent-good pitch. Below I grade these pitches as current and potential.

 

Slider 70/80: This pitch is currently Rodon's bread and butter. When it's on, the movement is incredible, and when it's off, it's still a damn good pitch that he's able to exercise excellent control over, hitting either corner of the plate for strikes with it seemingly at will. His command of his Slider is what makes it his best pitch currently, and it is definitely a plus-plus, swing-and-miss type of offering that will only get better over time.

 

Two-Seam Fastball 60/80: After hearing all the hype about Rodon's Slider, watching him pitch and seeing this offering was like opening a present on Christmas morning as a kid. The movement on this pitch is disgusting, it looks like a faster version of his Slider. This, in my opinion, has the potential to be his best offering, and a devastating out pitch for years to come. If Rodon develops into a frontline starter, it will be the combination of this pitch and the Slider that will put him there. He's going to need to develop better control over it, which is the only reason I don't grade it ahead of the Slider now. Once he has that control, though, I believe this will be his best pitch and his out pitch. It is also potentially a plus-plus, swing-and-miss offering.

 

Four-Seam Fastball 55/70: This may be illusory and telling of how little I know, especially since I've only ever seen Rodon listed as a three pitch pitcher, but I'm fairly certain in the video I've watched (none of which had radar guns on them), I've seen a Four-Seam Fastball that he rarely throws. That said, when I've seen him throw it, he has great command of it, and it pops the catcher's mitt. This pitch has the potential to be plus just because of how hard he throws, but he'll need to work it in a lot more if it's going to get there.

 

Changeup 40/65: Rodon's Changeup is very much a work in progress. It has the downward movement you like to see, and it flashes potential of a swing-and-miss offering at times, but he doesn't have even close to the command he would need for it to be a plus offering. I think this pitch will max out at good, but with the other offerings that's all he'll need, provided he develops those other offerings.

 

Command 45/65: After his Sophomore year, Rodon would have graded out 55-60 in this category, but in his Junior year, he seemed to develop a couple of hitches in his mechanics that need cleaning up. Pitching coaches will need to work with him to get him to complete his delivery and not "overthrow". When his mechanics are off, he puts too much effort into his delivery, and as a result, moves his head during his delivery and loses control of his pitches. Fixing this minor mechanical issue should give him at least good and MAYBE someday plus command of his pitches, but I have doubts on that last part.

 

Projectability

Rodon is a workhorse who looks to be ready to handle a major league workload, and his body and mechanics do not suggest a breakdown. Mechanics are very sound apart from the aforementioned issues in his delivery, and he tends to repeat his delivery very well, especially when he's on. Does not present inverted W in delivery at all (this was something I looked very closely for). Provided he is able to develop better command, Rodon projects as a #1 starter who will pitch 200+ innings each year with a high strikeout rate.

 

Major League ETA

Provided he signs with the White Sox, I see Rodon spending the remainder of the year somewhere high in the minor league system, either Birmingham or Charlotte, mostly to fix his mechanical issues in his delivery. I believe he will make his ML debut as a starting pitcher in early 2015, either April or May.

 

If Rodon develops as he could, Sale and Rodon could give the White Sox the type of one-two punch at the front of the rotation that the Diamondbacks had when they won the World Series, essentially by having arguably the two best starting pitchers in baseball. We can only hope.

 

Please add your thoughts to this, I'm looking for knowledgeable opinions and thoughts on this subject, which is why I decided to post this here.

 

I really enjoyed the write up, but I will quibble with one detail. The White Sox will not call up Rodon in May. Either he will break camp with the team, or he will be up in the middle of June. With Super2 status looming, anything else in between doesn't make any sense.

 

[royoung]

Speaking to his mechanics, I've seen people draw similarities to Peavy's type of recoil action and I don't think they're wrong. Obviously that was fine for Peavy for a while, but we all know it eventually resulted in Jake Peavy surgury on the detached lat. Not sure if 1 example is reason enough to concern, but it's probably worth mentioning.

 

I thought the detached lat injury was a freak thing? I heard it never has happened in baseball before, so why would that a result of his mechanics?

[ptatc]

I thought the detached lat injury was a freak thing? I heard it never has happened in baseball before, so why would that a result of his mechanics?

There is no way to know for sure. However, he uses an odd follow through and deceleration. With the way it "recoils" after he releases the ball, it makes anatomical sense that it adds stress to the anterior part of the shoulder where the lat attaches.

 

Usually, a pitcher flexes his trunk during the follow through or deceleration phase to dissipate the forces of throwing. Peavy stands almost straight up and never flexes. Rodon does a similar thing.

[Feeky Magee]

Future grades of 80, 80, 70 and 65 for his pitches with 65 command? That's the best pitcher of all-time.

[Quin]

Future grades of 80, 80, 70 and 65 for his pitches with 65 command? That's the best pitcher of all-time.

 

I'll take it.

[Dam8610]

I really enjoyed the write up, but I will quibble with one detail. The White Sox will not call up Rodon in May. Either he will break camp with the team, or he will be up in the middle of June. With Super2 status looming, anything else in between doesn't make any sense.

 

Excellent point that I wasn't aware of due to not knowing those rules as well. Thanks for the input.

 

Future grades of 80, 80, 70 and 65 for his pitches with 65 command? That's the best pitcher of all-time.

 

Note that those are potential grades, not projected. He's not going to get to all of those. Also, I'm fairly certain several of the best pitchers of all time had two pitches that would grade out at 80 with command that graded out at 65 or higher.

[Feeky Magee]

Excellent point that I wasn't aware of due to not knowing those rules as well. Thanks for the input.

 

 

 

Note that those are potential grades, not projected. He's not going to get to all of those. Also, I'm fairly certain several of the best pitchers of all time had two pitches that would grade out at 80 with command that graded out at 65 or higher.

Future grades are supposed to have at least some level of realism. I listen to a decent amount of scouting podcasts and when they're extremely excited about a pitch, one they think could be elite, they'll hang a 70 on it. 80 is basically seen as generational. I haven't heard anyone get close to a 70 on Rodon's fastball, never mind an 80.

[oldsox]

Can I get a simple explanation of Super 2, please?

[Quin]

Can I get a simple explanation of Super 2, please?

 

Super Two

 

Normally, players must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before they can be eligible for salary arbitration — or in other words, until they can negotiate their salary and not have it automatically set by their club. But certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria:

 

● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

 

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.

 

So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/

[Dam8610]

Future grades are supposed to have at least some level of realism. I listen to a decent amount of scouting podcasts and when they're extremely excited about a pitch, one they think could be elite, they'll hang a 70 on it. 80 is basically seen as generational. I haven't heard anyone get close to a 70 on Rodon's fastball, never mind an 80.

 

This is fair, as I indicated, I'm not a scout. I very well could've misjudged the scale, since I was viewing 80 as a plus-plus offering, but not once in a generation per se. That said, the best way I can think of to describe the movement on his slider and two-seamer is that he has the left handed version of Jeff Nelson's slider and Bartolo Colon's fastball. The only thing making the slider better at the moment to me is the degree of control he can exercise over it. If he can learn to place both of those pitches on both corners of the plate, he'll be one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to hit.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Future grades are supposed to have at least some level of realism. I listen to a decent amount of scouting podcasts and when they're extremely excited about a pitch, one they think could be elite, they'll hang a 70 on it. 80 is basically seen as generational. I haven't heard anyone get close to a 70 on Rodon's fastball, never mind an 80.

 

I want to go back and listen to some of those Fringe Average podcasts now prior to the draft, because I know Jason Parks was ALL over Rodon before the end of the season struggles. I think he threw out grades on his pitches. If I recall correctly, the other guy who did the podcast loved Hoffman for the 1-1 spot. Both thought the Brady Aiken stuff was just Keith Law hype.

 

Going back to listen to those podcasts now.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Also, because I feel this is related, I may as well share it here in the Rodon thread. This is my response to people guessing where Rodon may get ranked on next year's top 100 boards.....

 

 

here are the top 3 pitchers taken the last few years, and where they ranked on the following year's preseason top 100 (BA)....

 

2013 - Mark Appel (college, 39), Jon Gray (college, 12), Kohl Stewart (HS, 52)

2012 - Kevin Gausman (college, 26), Kyle Zimmer (college, 24), Max Fried (HS, 46)

2011 - Gerrit Cole (college, 12), Danny Hultzen (college, 21), Trevor Bauer (college, 10)

2010 - Jameson Taillon (HS, 11), Drew Pomeranz (college, 61), Matt Harvey (college, unranked)

 

 

So I guess Rodon could rank anywhere from 10 to unranked..... wink.gif

 

But I think top 50 is a guarantee. Somewhere in the 20's is probably the best bet.

[witesoxfan]

Future grades are supposed to have at least some level of realism. I listen to a decent amount of scouting podcasts and when they're extremely excited about a pitch, one they think could be elite, they'll hang a 70 on it. 80 is basically seen as generational. I haven't heard anyone get close to a 70 on Rodon's fastball, never mind an 80.

 

Yeah, I agree. In his prime, Pedro probably had close to an 80 fastball, 80 changeup, 70 slider, and 65-70 command.

 

 

[royoung]

Also, because I feel this is related, I may as well share it here in the Rodon thread. This is my response to people guessing where Rodon may get ranked on next year's top 100 boards.....

 

 

here are the top 3 pitchers taken the last few years, and where they ranked on the following year's preseason top 100 (BA)....

 

2013 - Mark Appel (college, 39), Jon Gray (college, 12), Kohl Stewart (HS, 52)

2012 - Kevin Gausman (college, 26), Kyle Zimmer (college, 24), Max Fried (HS, 46)

2011 - Gerrit Cole (college, 12), Danny Hultzen (college, 21), Trevor Bauer (college, 10)

2010 - Jameson Taillon (HS, 11), Drew Pomeranz (college, 61), Matt Harvey (college, unranked)

 

 

So I guess Rodon could rank anywhere from 10 to unranked..... wink.gif

 

But I think top 50 is a guarantee. Somewhere in the 20's is probably the best bet.

 

Quite early to speculate, but I think Rodon and Anderson are locks for the top 100, maybe top 50. Micah Johnson might sneak in the top 100, but a lot of scouts aren't crazy about him. Montas is a wildcard.

[BFirebird]

Also, because I feel this is related, I may as well share it here in the Rodon thread. This is my response to people guessing where Rodon may get ranked on next year's top 100 boards.....

 

 

here are the top 3 pitchers taken the last few years, and where they ranked on the following year's preseason top 100 (BA)....

 

2013 - Mark Appel (college, 39), Jon Gray (college, 12), Kohl Stewart (HS, 52)

2012 - Kevin Gausman (college, 26), Kyle Zimmer (college, 24), Max Fried (HS, 46)

2011 - Gerrit Cole (college, 12), Danny Hultzen (college, 21), Trevor Bauer (college, 10)

2010 - Jameson Taillon (HS, 11), Drew Pomeranz (college, 61), Matt Harvey (college, unranked)

 

 

So I guess Rodon could rank anywhere from 10 to unranked..... wink.gif

 

But I think top 50 is a guarantee. Somewhere in the 20's is probably the best bet.

 

Were people not that high on Matt Harvey out of college? 7th overall pick and not ranked the next year...and he is pretty good now?

[southsider2k5]

Quite early to speculate, but I think Rodon and Anderson are locks for the top 100, maybe top 50. Micah Johnson might sneak in the top 100, but a lot of scouts aren't crazy about him. Montas is a wildcard.

 

Rodon should be top 50 for sure. I am thinking more like 20-25 range at least. Anderson I bet comes in closer to 100, because a lot of people will dock him for the errors.

[fathom]

Rodon should be top 50 for sure. I am thinking more like 20-25 range at least. Anderson I bet comes in closer to 100, because a lot of people will dock him for the errors.

 

Anderson will be in the 50-60 range, if I had to guess. A lot of the "experts" have raved about him this season. He was 101 coming into the season, so I bet he'll have a huge jump due to graduation, etc.