Who do you most want to keep after the Core 4?

[caulfield12]

Right now, we have to assume that our rebuilding core is Sale, Abreu, Quintana, Eaton and Avisail. (And Rodon).

 

Along with those names, we're probably stuck with Danks...and Petricka, Nate Jones and Daniel Webb would undoubtedly still be part of the bullpen picture, along with Nieto in AA/AAA.

 

One must logically assume Konerko, Dunn, Scott Downs and DeAza are all gone.

 

Finally, Leury Garcia, Sierra and Javy Guerra, not sure anyone really cares one way or the other whether they're in the minors or majors.

[LittleHurt05]

Anyone else not super excited about Eaton? I'd say he is a MLB starter and he does have time to improve, but I just don't see much to get too excited about. You do need players lilke that to fill out your roster, but meh.

[Feeky Magee]

If the Sox don't get another outfielder via trade, I'd keep De Aza over Viciedo. Reasons being:

 

1) De Aza has demonstrated he can be a better than league-average player with 3 straight 2+ WAR seasons. Even this year with a horrendous hitting start (fueled by a lot of bad luck), he sits at 0.0 WAR.

 

2) Viciedo is rocking a career WAR of 0.2, and his WAR for this season is -0.3, because when he doesn't hit, he's a liability. And his hitting is getting worse every year.

 

3) I don't think it's optimal to sell De Aza at this point. The horrendous hitting start means his numbers probably won't look as they usually do by the trading deadline. I think it's worth giving him one more year (again, assuming the other choice is Viciedo and not a new outfielder acquired via trade) and hoping his numbers look more like they usually do and trading him then.

 

The arguments against this would be a) he'll earn more than Viciedo and b) it's not like he's going to bring in a haul next year anyway even with regular numbers, but I'd still do it.

[caulfield12]

Eaton needs to be a 750ish OPS guy to have the type of major impact we need in the leadoff spot.

 

He's at 703 this season, and 705 for his entire major league career. However, in five minor league seasons, he was at 949.

 

We're not going to get a 900 type of player, but we expected 750-825. Adam needs to be more of a threat on the basepaths as well as cleaning up some of his throws in the outfield...sometimes he hesitates or peers in for a step before throwing, and his throws have been pretty inconsistent, but the main positives he brings are his speed/hustle/attitude, not his arm.

 

Plus, we desperately need a leader on this team (among the position players), and Eaton's the best candidate since Abreu's the "strong and silent follow my example" type, much like Konerko.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Did you mean Core 5?

[Rowand44]

Anyone else not super excited about Eaton? I'd say he is a MLB starter and he does have time to improve, but I just don't see much to get too excited about. You do need players lilke that to fill out your roster, but meh.

I'm still a big fan. He struggled a lot after he came back from his injury but he's been really solid before and after that. To me the biggest thing with him is remaining healthy, if he can do that(admitedly a big if) then I think he's an above average starter in the majors.

[Feeky Magee]

Eaton needs to be a 750ish OPS guy to have the type of major impact we need in the leadoff spot.

 

He's at 703 this season, and 705 for his entire major league career. However, in five minor league seasons, he was at 949.

 

We're not going to get a 900 type of player, but we expected 750-825. Adam needs to be more of a threat on the basepaths as well as cleaning up some of his throws in the outfield...sometimes he hesitates or peers in for a step before throwing, and his throws have been pretty inconsistent, but the main positives he brings are his speed/hustle/attitude, not his arm.

 

Plus, we desperately need a leader on this team (among the position players), and Eaton's the best candidate since Abreu's the "strong and silent follow my example" type, much like Konerko.

Forget OPS. It's all about the wRC+.

[caulfield12]

If the Sox don't get another outfielder via trade, I'd keep De Aza over Viciedo. Reasons being:

 

1) De Aza has demonstrated he can be a better than league-average player with 3 straight 2+ WAR seasons. Even this year with a horrendous hitting start (fueled by a lot of bad luck), he sits at 0.0 WAR.

 

2) Viciedo is rocking a career WAR of 0.2, and his WAR for this season is -0.3, because when he doesn't hit, he's a liability. And his hitting is getting worse every year.

 

3) I don't think it's optimal to sell De Aza at this point. The horrendous hitting start means his numbers probably won't look as they usually do by the trading deadline. I think it's worth giving him one more year (again, assuming the other choice is Viciedo and not a new outfielder acquired via trade) and hoping his numbers look more like they usually do and trading him then.

 

The arguments against this would be a) he'll earn more than Viciedo and b) it's not like he's going to bring in a haul next year anyway even with regular numbers, but I'd still do it.

 

90% of the things we hate about DeAza aren't showing up statistically...brain cramps in the outfield, throws that are mysteriously not made, defensive misplays that are not ruled as errors, base-running issues, etc. He's just not a fundamentally-attuned player...for example, bunting at the end of game the other night.

 

Giving DeAza one more year at age 31 just means we have another declining veteran player whose example we don't want the youngsters to emulate.

 

How many times when we need to advance a runner does Alejandro seem like he's giving himself up or trying to either pull the ball or go with it depending on the circumstances? How many times have we referred to him as "smart" or "heady," like an AJ or Jose Valentin out on the field?

 

At best, DeAza is a 4th outfielder on a really good team moving forward, and plays only against RHP. At worst...well, we've seen it for the first half of this season. He's also no longer as much of a threat as he used to be on the basepaths.

 

 

We might end up dumping both DeAza and Viciedo. There's no doubt with the lack of power in the major leagues today that Dayan will get at least 2 more chances with other organizations to fulfill his promise, if not three. For DeAza, he's much closer to the 4th/5th outfielder or AAAA player than a contributor or part of a contending future White Sox team.

 

 

[Feeky Magee]

90% of the things we hate about DeAza aren't showing up statistically...brain cramps in the outfield, throws that are mysteriously not made, defensive misplays that are not ruled as errors, base-running issues, etc. He's just not a fundamentally-attuned player...for example, bunting at the end of game the other night.

 

Giving DeAza one more year at age 31 just means we have another declining veteran player whose example we don't want the youngsters to emulate.

 

How many times when we need to advance a runner does Alejandro seem like he's giving himself up or trying to either pull the ball or go with it depending on the circumstances? How many times have we referred to him as "smart" or "heady," like an AJ or Jose Valentin out on the field?

 

At best, DeAza is a 4th outfielder on a really good team moving forward, and plays only against RHP. At worst...well, we've seen it for the first half of this season. He's also no longer as much of a threat as he used to be on the basepaths.

 

 

We might end up dumping both DeAza and Viciedo. There's no doubt with the lack of power in the major leagues today that Dayan will get at least 2 more chances with other organizations to fulfill his promise, if not three. For DeAza, he's much closer to the 4th/5th outfielder or AAAA player than a contributor or part of a contending future White Sox team.

Newsflash, those do show up statistically.

[Eminor3rd]

Eaton needs to be a 750ish OPS guy to have the type of major impact we need in the leadoff spot.

 

He's at 703 this season, and 705 for his entire major league career. However, in five minor league seasons, he was at 949.

 

We're not going to get a 900 type of player, but we expected 750-825. Adam needs to be more of a threat on the basepaths as well as cleaning up some of his throws in the outfield...sometimes he hesitates or peers in for a step before throwing, and his throws have been pretty inconsistent, but the main positives he brings are his speed/hustle/attitude, not his arm.

 

Plus, we desperately need a leader on this team (among the position players), and Eaton's the best candidate since Abreu's the "strong and silent follow my example" type, much like Konerko.

 

I think this is an instance where wRC+ does much better job of putting his contributions in perspective than OPS does.

 

Right now, he's at 94 wRC+, where a league average CF so far this season is 96. Remember that wRC+ is league-adjusted, park-adjusted, and is scaled so that a league average hitter, regardless of position, is 100. Each point represents a percentage point.

 

So, essentially, Eaton has been an average hitter for a CF even when you include park effects. Considering this will be his first full season in the Majors, and he's had injury issues that aren't likely to linger, I'm very alright with that performance. I do think he needs to improve and that he WILL improve. But, even now, he's a handful of walk and doubles away from being a 100 wRC+ guy, which is tremendously valuable in CF.

[Eminor3rd]

Forget OPS. It's all about the wRC+.

 

Haha, beat me to it.

[caulfield12]

Here's another one, RC/27.

 

18. Abreu

37. Dunn

79. Ramirez

108. Eaton

 

139. Viciedo

146. De Aza

 

167. LAST

 

 

 

If you trade De Aza, you're just going to get salary relief, MAYBE.

 

Viciedo at least gets you back SOMETHING, like an Ackley or Smoak or Domonic Brown, another team's change of scenery candidate.

 

[caulfield12]

Newsflash, those do show up statistically.

 

 

How? He has a very good opportunity to throw out a runner from short LF and holds onto it instead, worried more about Mauer tagging from 2B to get to 3rd. I'm 99% sure that ended up being the winning run in that game, actually.

 

So who is making the determination that his defensive rating will suffer or not based on that play?

 

Or bunting at the end of a game the other night...for another example.

 

There are literally 100-125 examples that everyone who posts in the game threads in the last season and one half can recall from him specifically.

[Feeky Magee]

Here's another one, RC/27.

 

18. Abreu

37. Dunn

79. Ramirez

108. Eaton

 

139. Viciedo

146. De Aza

 

167. LAST

 

 

 

If you trade De Aza, you're just going to get salary relief, MAYBE.

 

Viciedo at least gets you back SOMETHING, like an Ackley or Smoak or Domonic Brown, another team's change of scenery candidate.

And how many of those runs did Viciedo give back via his defence and his baserunning?

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'm not sure why you'd count Eaton and not Gillaspie. If you're not counting Connor then you shouldn't include Eaton, so maybe it's just 3 of Sale-Abreu-Q. And in reality, only 2 look completely 100% untradeable given their superstar status, so you may as well consider a Core 7-8+ or so including Avisail and a reliever or two or just say Core 2 referring to Sale and Abreu.

 

But as for who I would most want to keep, the answer is this: they won't do it, but imagine the Sox decided to use FA over the offseason to buy solutions at every single position necessary. Any young player that would have his spot secured under those circumstances would be someone I would most want to keep. But beyond that, some players like Viciedo for instance, it either makes sense to keep and play them OR if you deal them, you make the deal for someone else with some upside.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm the lone Danks vote. Someone said a few days ago that he has more value to this team than any other team, and I believe that to be true. Unless they trade another piece for a ML ready or near ready SP I'd prefer we keep him. Even if they do add a FA SP next year that still leaves them with FA-Sale-Q-?-?, if I had my way it'd be something like FA-SAle-Q-DAnks-guy like Paulino/Noesi who isn't Paulino/Noesi. Then that 5th guy eventually gets replaced by Rodon.

 

I think the longer we keep Danks, the more valuable he becomes.

[Feeky Magee]

How? He has a very good opportunity to throw out a runner from short LF and holds onto it instead, worried more about Mauer tagging from 2B to get to 3rd. I'm 99% sure that ended up being the winning run in that game, actually.

 

So who is making the determination that his defensive rating will suffer or not based on that play?

 

Or bunting at the end of a game the other night...for another example.

 

There are literally 100-125 examples that everyone who posts in the game threads in the last season and one half can recall from him specifically.

It shows up in his defensive WAR, a part of UZR is ARM which measures how many times runners advance bases on fly balls, singles etc.

 

What was that wrong with the bunt? They were one run down, he's shown he can bunt for a base hit, he's shown he can steal bases. Why is that seen as incredibly stupid and Viciedo striking out the batter prior by swinging at absolutely everything is not?

[The Ultimate Champion]

I think this is an instance where wRC+ does much better job of putting his contributions in perspective than OPS does.

 

Right now, he's at 94 wRC+, where a league average CF so far this season is 96. Remember that wRC+ is league-adjusted, park-adjusted, and is scaled so that a league average hitter, regardless of position, is 100. Each point represents a percentage point.

 

So, essentially, Eaton has been an average hitter for a CF even when you include park effects. Considering this will be his first full season in the Majors, and he's had injury issues that aren't likely to linger, I'm very alright with that performance. I do think he needs to improve and that he WILL improve. But, even now, he's a handful of walk and doubles away from being a 100 wRC+ guy, which is tremendously valuable in CF.

I completely disagree with this. Eaton will be on and off the DL during much of his career IMO. He's already hit the DL enough at a young enough age, and what would make you think he'll become generally healthier as he gets older? He plays a premium position and does so with a hard style of play that lends itself to constant minor injuries. Asking him to save his body or whatever and not play as hard, not use his speed, etc. just devalues his game to the point where you don't care much about him anymore.

 

I said prior to the offseason that I'd be happy if Eaton became kind of like a poor man's Pods offensively overall with much better D in the field. A couple people thought that was stupid, blah blah blah Eaton is so great and so much better and all that crap. I stick to that. We're not getting a perfect world scenario with this guy IMO, he's probably going to be hurt a lot and if we can get 5 good years out of him we will have done well.

Edited June 24, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[knightni]

I don't really have a need to keep any of them past this year except Viciedo and maybe Beckham.

 

Abreu

Quintana

Sale

Eaton

Av. Garcia

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'm the lone Danks vote. Someone said a few days ago that he has more value to this team than any other team, and I believe that to be true. Unless they trade another piece for a ML ready or near ready SP I'd prefer we keep him. Even if they do add a FA SP next year that still leaves them with FA-Sale-Q-?-?, if I had my way it'd be something like FA-SAle-Q-DAnks-guy like Paulino/Noesi who isn't Paulino/Noesi. Then that 5th guy eventually gets replaced by Rodon.

 

I think the longer we keep Danks, the more valuable he becomes.

Danks: 4.34 ERA 1.393 WHIP 8.8 H/9 1.0 HR/9 3.8 BB/9 6.1 K/9 1.62 K/BB Salary $14.25M & owed $28.5M beyond this season

Noesi with Sox: 4.37 ERA 1.422 WHIP 9.5 H/9 1.2 HR/9 3.3 BB/9 7.2 K/9 2.19 K/BB Salary league minimum

 

IMO the ideal scenario is this:

 

1) Hahn brings in a top RHSP prospect or a RHSP reclamation project ASAP, replacing Rienzo, our rotation post ASB goes L Sale-R Noesi-L Quintana-R New guy-L Danks

2) Between Noesi and the new guy, hopefully in September we're confident in penciling at least one of them into our rotation next year. Hahn still acquires a quality RHSP prospect elsewhere.

3) 2015 rotation eventually works out where it's Sale-Righty-Q-Righty-Rodon, as Rodon takes Danks' spot, and hopefully our 2 righties come from within and are affordable. Ideally we get someone else with Noesi, both do well, and we pick up another quality option or two and have depth issues. Probably not happening though.

[Balta1701]

Danks: 4.34 ERA 1.393 WHIP 8.8 H/9 1.0 HR/9 3.8 BB/9 6.1 K/9 1.62 K/BB Salary $14.25M & owed $28.5M beyond this season

Noesi with Sox: 4.37 ERA 1.422 WHIP 9.5 H/9 1.2 HR/9 3.3 BB/9 7.2 K/9 2.19 K/BB Salary league minimum

 

IMO the ideal scenario is this:

 

1) Hahn brings in a top RHSP prospect or a RHSP reclamation project ASAP, replacing Rienzo, our rotation post ASB goes L Sale-R Noesi-L Quintana-R New guy-L Danks

2) Between Noesi and the new guy, hopefully in September we're confident in penciling at least one of them into our rotation next year. Hahn still acquires a quality RHSP prospect elsewhere.

3) 2015 rotation eventually works out where it's Sale-Righty-Q-Righty-Rodon, as Rodon takes Danks' spot, and hopefully our 2 righties come from within and are affordable. Ideally we get someone else with Noesi, both do well, and we pick up another quality option or two and have depth issues. Probably not happening though.

Especially since we haven't seen him throw a single inning against minor leaguers yet, I think it's early to expect Rodon to arrive in 2015.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Danks: 4.34 ERA 1.393 WHIP 8.8 H/9 1.0 HR/9 3.8 BB/9 6.1 K/9 1.62 K/BB Salary $14.25M & owed $28.5M beyond this season

Noesi with Sox: 4.37 ERA 1.422 WHIP 9.5 H/9 1.2 HR/9 3.3 BB/9 7.2 K/9 2.19 K/BB Salary league minimum

 

IMO the ideal scenario is this:

 

1) Hahn brings in a top RHSP prospect or a RHSP reclamation project ASAP, replacing Rienzo, our rotation post ASB goes L Sale-R Noesi-L Quintana-R New guy-L Danks

2) Between Noesi and the new guy, hopefully in September we're confident in penciling at least one of them into our rotation next year. Hahn still acquires a quality RHSP prospect elsewhere.

3) 2015 rotation eventually works out where it's Sale-Righty-Q-Righty-Rodon, as Rodon takes Danks' spot, and hopefully our 2 righties come from within and are affordable. Ideally we get someone else with Noesi, both do well, and we pick up another quality option or two and have depth issues. Probably not happening though.

 

Meh, I just think the longer you keep him, the bigger the return you can potentially get. I don't think they're hurting for cap room, as evidence by them going after Tanaka.

 

I know you and other will point out that it's been luck, but I still think Danks 11 quality starts(only 16 pitchers have more) is a "big deal".

[caulfield12]

Or Danks already "peaked" again over his last 5-6 starts...his peripherals have merely caught up with him and we're stuck with the 4.5-5.25 ERA version for the next couple of seasons.

 

There's that very real possibility.

 

Usually, a Danks quality start has 3 runs given up since 2008...of course, there's times when he's given up 0-2 runs, but a lot more of the 6 IP/3 ER variety because of his high pitch counts.

Edited June 24, 2014 by caulfield12

[The Ultimate Champion]

Meh, I just think the longer you keep him, the bigger the return you can potentially get. I don't think they're hurting for cap room, as evidence by them going after Tanaka.

 

I know you and other will point out that it's been luck, but I still think Danks 11 quality starts(only 16 pitchers have more) is a "big deal".

I'd love it if Danks could make the full transition to quality MLB starter with lesser stuff, and I do think he at least has a chance of doing that. But when Rodon signs you have 4 lefties, and it's pretty clear who is the odd man out. The salary savings could come up huge, however I agree that their salary needs have been overstated. However that new Cuban on the market and another RHSP via FA would be nice. We wouldn't get a Scherzer or a Shields I don't think, but a 3-year deal to the next step down would be nice. Also a FA OF if there are any on the market worth it, or a possible deal for one of the Dodgers OF where they eat $$$. There are some potential ways of spending that money.

[Eminor3rd]

I completely disagree with this. Eaton will be on and off the DL during much of his career IMO. He's already hit the DL enough at a young enough age, and what would make you think he'll become generally healthier as he gets older? He plays a premium position and does so with a hard style of play that lends itself to constant minor injuries. Asking him to save his body or whatever and not play as hard, not use his speed, etc. just devalues his game to the point where you don't care much about him anymore.

 

I said prior to the offseason that I'd be happy if Eaton became kind of like a poor man's Pods offensively overall with much better D in the field. A couple people thought that was stupid, blah blah blah Eaton is so great and so much better and all that crap. I stick to that. We're not getting a perfect world scenario with this guy IMO, he's probably going to be hurt a lot and if we can get 5 good years out of him we will have done well.

 

What I meant by that line was that the injuries he's suffered this year aren't injuries that are likely to have lasting effects on his ability. Like, if he had bad hamstrings or something.