Who do you most want to keep after the Core 4?

[The Ultimate Champion]

Especially since we haven't seen him throw a single inning against minor leaguers yet, I think it's early to expect Rodon to arrive in 2015.

At some point he will if he's healthy. Cooper said before the draft that Rodon was the closest of the 4 the Sox were looking at, and the FO put out the "fast track" stuff immediately. I think he'll see some time this year out of the pen and will probably prepare in the offseason for a starting spot, whether it is here or at Charlotte to begin the year.

[The Ultimate Champion]

What I meant by that line was that the injuries he's suffered this year aren't injuries that are likely to have lasting effects on his ability. Like, if he had bad hamstrings or something.

I see.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Or Danks already "peaked" again over his last 5-6 starts...his peripherals have merely caught up with him and we're stuck with the 4.5-5.25 ERA version for the next couple of seasons.

 

There's that very real possibility.

 

Usually, a Danks quality start has 3 runs given up since 2008...of course, there's times when he's given up 0-2 runs, but a lot more of the 6 IP/3 ER variety because of his high pitch counts.

 

Thing is, it wasn't just his last 5-6 starts, it's been all season, as evidence by the 11 QS. He's been "feast or famine" all year. In an eventual Sale-FA-Q-Rodon-Danks rotation he'd be the 5th starter and I'd take a guy that can give you 6/3 the majority of the time all day......But that said, if they can get back another starter I'm not apposed to trading him.

 

I also don't see what the problem is in having 4 lefties in the rotation. I can't find the stats, but are players typically better vs RHP or LHP?

Edited June 24, 2014 by scs787

[Eminor3rd]

Thing is, it wasn't just his last 5-6 starts, it's been all season, as evidence by the 11 QS. He's been "feast or famine" all year. In an eventual Sale-FA-Q-Rodon-Danks rotation he'd be the 5th starter and I'd take a guy that can give you 6/3 the majority of the time all day......But that said, if they can get back another starter I'm not apposed to trading him.

 

I also don't see what the problem is in having 4 lefties in the rotation. I can't find the stats, but are players typically better vs RHP or LHP?

 

Well, right-handed batters are between 2 and 3 times more common.

 

The idea is that you want to be able to give teams a different look each night, but I'm not aware of any research that has actually attempted to confirm an effect there. To me, I think a good mix is one of those things that's nice to have, but absolutely should not get in the way of getting the 5 best starters you can get, regardless of arm side.

[GreenSox]

At some point he will if he's healthy. Cooper said before the draft that Rodon was the closest of the 4 the Sox were looking at, and the FO put out the "fast track" stuff immediately. I think he'll see some time this year out of the pen and will probably prepare in the offseason for a starting spot, whether it is here or at Charlotte to begin the year.

He shouldn't be anywhere near this team this year, and start that arb clock rolling.

[flavum]

He shouldn't be anywhere near this team this year, and start that arb clock rolling.

 

I agree now. On draft day, I was still holding out hope the Sox could hang in there, and Rodon could actually help their wildcard cause in some way.

 

Now? Screw this season. He'll sign on July 18th or whatever, and get a few minor league innings this season. Then probably start at Winston-Salem next year, and fly through the system in a few months...hopefully.

[southsider2k5]

Newsflash, those do show up statistically.

 

Where does bunting with two outs in the ninth down a run when you need an extra base hit show up in the stats? Where does throwing to the wrong base show up in the stats?

[southsider2k5]

Danks: 4.34 ERA 1.393 WHIP 8.8 H/9 1.0 HR/9 3.8 BB/9 6.1 K/9 1.62 K/BB Salary $14.25M & owed $28.5M beyond this season

Noesi with Sox: 4.37 ERA 1.422 WHIP 9.5 H/9 1.2 HR/9 3.3 BB/9 7.2 K/9 2.19 K/BB Salary league minimum

 

IMO the ideal scenario is this:

 

1) Hahn brings in a top RHSP prospect or a RHSP reclamation project ASAP, replacing Rienzo, our rotation post ASB goes L Sale-R Noesi-L Quintana-R New guy-L Danks

2) Between Noesi and the new guy, hopefully in September we're confident in penciling at least one of them into our rotation next year. Hahn still acquires a quality RHSP prospect elsewhere.

3) 2015 rotation eventually works out where it's Sale-Righty-Q-Righty-Rodon, as Rodon takes Danks' spot, and hopefully our 2 righties come from within and are affordable. Ideally we get someone else with Noesi, both do well, and we pick up another quality option or two and have depth issues. Probably not happening though.

 

I'd trade Noesi before he regresses, just like most reclamation projects do.

[LittleHurt05]

I'd trade Noesi before he regresses, just like most reclamation projects do.

 

I'm starting to think that Noesi is the new Paulino. Everyone is just a bit too excited about a guy who is unproven and has had little success in the past.

[hogan873]

I'd like to see the Sox hold onto Gillaspie. Now, if Davidson proves he can hit and makes it to the team next year, what happens to Conor? He's proven to be pretty good this year both offensively and defensively. And aside from never smiling and always looking like he's ready to go on a killing spree, I think he's a great fit.

 

I'll put in my two cents on Noesi. I'm not blown away by the guy at all, but he's been okay. He's been a good inning filler, and maybe that's okay for the fifth starter this year. Moving forward, though, does he have a place on this team?

 

I like Alexei a lot, and I'd like to see the Sox hold onto him. But, if some team offers an insane deal that fills some future holes, Hahn will have to make a deal.

 

Finally, I'd keep Semien over Beckham. I think Semien has a better chance to be consistently good. But, that's just an opinion based on Beckham's history.

[harfman77]

I'd trade Noesi before he regresses, just like most reclamation projects do.

 

I am keeping him. The Sox tried to pick him up in the Swisher deal and have really liked him for a while, I think they saw something there and are starting to bring it out of him. He is cost controlled and has yet to reach his ceiling.

 

I think the pieces you need to trade are Alexei, as he is a FA in 2016 right when the core of the team should be hitting its stride, and Q as he is the most valuable trade chip that you could legitimately deal and receive appropriate value back in return. I'd also trade Beckham now that he has restored some of his value, if you can get a good enough return.

[Jose Abreu]

I don't know if Abreu/Nieto/Remaining Cubans would like it if Viciedo or Alexei were traded. You definitely don't want to make Abreu upset

Edited June 24, 2014 by Jose Abreu

[Eminor3rd]

I don't know if Abreu/Nieto/Remaining Cubans would like it if Viciedo or Alexei were traded. You definitely don't want to make Abreu upset

 

Idk why we assume that we have to retain every Cuban player we have in order to keep Abreu content. Does he even like them? I mean they're just people. Like if I went to a job abroad somewhere and there were 5 American dudes, I'd feel like it would help me make my transition. But then if I was there for a few months and one of those dudes got fired, I don't think it would be a big deal. It's not like they'd be my childhood best friends or anything.

Edited June 24, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Feeky Magee]

Where does bunting with two outs in the ninth down a run when you need an extra base hit show up in the stats? Where does throwing to the wrong base show up in the stats?

...

It shows up in his defensive WAR, a part of UZR is ARM which measures how many times runners advance bases on fly balls, singles etc.

 

What was that wrong with the bunt? They were one run down, he's shown he can bunt for a base hit, he's shown he can steal bases. Why is that seen as incredibly stupid and Viciedo striking out the batter prior by swinging at absolutely everything is not?

[southsider2k5]

...

 

According to that it doesn't differentiate anything. It categories it all the same, which means it really doesn't recognize it.

 

The second part about Viciedo is not relevant, as Viciedo wasn't even being talked about.

 

The rest if baseball 101. With two outs, you are looking for an extra basehit to get into scoring position, so it only takes one additional hit to get him in. With a bunt single, you need most likely need two more hits to score De Aza. If you want to go the SB route, De Aza is a 71% basestealer for his career, and for this year. That is a below optimal number. That doesn't count the significant outs of his running into an out on the bases, as he has made a habit of during his career.

 

Again, it mostly boils down to De Aza is a stupid baseball player, that hurts his teams in ways stats aren't picking up.

[LittleHurt05]

Idk why we assume that we have to retain every Cuban player we have in order to keep Abreu content. Does he even like them? I mean they're just people. Like if I went to a job somewhere and there were 5 American dudes, I'd feel like it would help me make my transition. But then if I was there for a few months and one of those dudes got fired, I don't think it would be a big deal. It's not like they'd be my childhood best friends or anything.

 

And what's he gonna do, refuse to play? Demand a trade? It's not like every other team has multiple Cubans either.

[Feeky Magee]

According to that it doesn't differentiate anything. It categories it all the same, which means it really doesn't recognize it.

 

The second part about Viciedo is not relevant, as Viciedo wasn't even being talked about.

 

The rest if baseball 101. With two outs, you are looking for an extra basehit to get into scoring position, so it only takes one additional hit to get him in. With a bunt single, you need most likely need two more hits to score De Aza. If you want to go the SB route, De Aza is a 71% basestealer for his career, and for this year. That is a below optimal number. That doesn't count the significant outs of his running into an out on the bases, as he has made a habit of during his career.

 

Again, it mostly boils down to De Aza is a stupid baseball player, that hurts his teams in ways stats aren't picking up.

Eh? It does recognise it.

 

ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.

 

As for the bunt, De Aza has got a base hit on 50% of the bunts he's attempted this year, and that's after the bunt out. If we take it as a 50% chance he bunts for a hit and a 70% chance he steals a base, that's a 35% chance he gets to second base. Even if we take his career bunt-for-hit rate of 39%, that's a 27% he ends up at 2nd. De Aza's ISO this year is .128, so 12.8% of the time he gets an extra base hit. Therefore, he made the smart play, by quite a long way.

[witesoxfan]

Eh? It does recognise it.

 

 

 

As for the bunt, De Aza has got a base hit on 50% of the bunts he's attempted this year, and that's after the bunt out. If we take it as a 50% chance he bunts for a hit and a 70% chance he steals a base, that's a 35% chance he gets to second base. Even if we take his career bunt-for-hit rate of 39%, that's a 27% he ends up at 2nd. De Aza's ISO this year is .128, so 12.8% of the time he gets an extra base hit. Therefore, he made the smart play, by quite a long way.

 

De Aza is 3 for 6 in successful bunts this year, but he's at 39% for his career. I think that number is far more stable. Also, the .128 of his Iso just indicates how many extra bases he has as a ratio. His XBH% this year is at 7.5% 6.7%.

[Eminor3rd]

Here's an article today that contextualizes "arm holds:" http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-o...-using-his-arm/

 

Those can result from throw or non-throws. It basically just goes off the result of the base runner, which is an imperfect but pretty good proxy, especially over a large sample.

[southsider2k5]

Eh? It does recognise it.

 

 

 

As for the bunt, De Aza has got a base hit on 50% of the bunts he's attempted this year, and that's after the bunt out. If we take it as a 50% chance he bunts for a hit and a 70% chance he steals a base, that's a 35% chance he gets to second base. Even if we take his career bunt-for-hit rate of 39%, that's a 27% he ends up at 2nd. De Aza's ISO this year is .128, so 12.8% of the time he gets an extra base hit. Therefore, he made the smart play, by quite a long way.

 

Just because he has a rate this year, doesn't mean you can credit it as a X% chance. That is a gross misuse of a statistic. That is just awful work. It doesn't take into account anything at all, and ignores literally everything. I can't even respond adequately to that.

[Feeky Magee]

Just because he has a rate this year, doesn't mean you can credit it as a X% chance. That is a gross misuse of a statistic. That is just awful work. It doesn't take into account anything at all, and ignores literally everything. I can't even respond adequately to that.

You can take his career rate if you prefer, I included that too.

 

Anyway, the point is not that you can exactly say what percent of a chance that De Aza gets to second, merely that it's not clearly a stupid decision for him to bunt.

 

De Aza is 3 for 6 in successful bunts this year, but he's at 39% for his career. I think that number is far more stable. Also, the .128 of his Iso just indicates how many extra bases he has as a ratio. His XBH% this year is at 7.5% 6.7%.

I included the 39% separately. And whoops. Only further backs up my point though.

[Tannerfan]

Does anyone think there's merit in moving Gillaspie to the outfield?

If he could play left you've got him Eaton and Garcia left to right. This means Davidson has to pan out at 3b, or maybe Semien can stick at third.

[harfman77]

Does anyone think there's merit in moving Gillaspie to the outfield?

If he could play left you've got him Eaton and Garcia left to right. This means Davidson has to pan out at 3b, or maybe Semien can stick at third.

 

More likely that Semien ends up in LF than Gillaspie.

[Capn12]

If ANYONE chooses Tyler Flowers, you need a DDT dropped on you, or something. No value to the future of this team, at all. Period.

[chitownsportsfan]

Does anyone think there's merit in moving Gillaspie to the outfield?

If he could play left you've got him Eaton and Garcia left to right. This means Davidson has to pan out at 3b, or maybe Semien can stick at third.

 

There's no merit in moving him to LF when he can play a cromulent 3B. His wRC+ is like 130, that more than makes up for the few balls he doesn't get to a month at 3B. In general, it's really hard to find good young infielders, harder than finding good young outfielders.

 

At least it's clear that we need to continue to rebuild -- jettison Alexie, Belli and anyone else that will get a decent piece.