Houston Astros' Internal Trade Talks

[Feeky Magee]

Should WAR really be considered when evaluating a prospect/player who has played in 103 games over three seasons?

Not so much. I was mainly using it in terms of Castro, as the comment was that Avi has a much higher ceiling than Castro.

 

EDIT: Although I do consider it a bit worrying that in those mere 103 games, Avi was worth -15 runs on defence. Over 162 games, that is absolutely yikes. Granted that defensive stats ain't perfect.

Edited June 30, 2014 by Feeky Magee

[knightni]

Oakland has a few solid catchers.

[witesoxfan]

In terms of WAR, what do you Garcia's ceiling is, considering his defence, which has graded as amongst the worst in the league (and fails the eye test too)?

 

Castro had a 4.3 WAR last year (bearing in mind that likely grossly undersells him because it doesn't consider pitch framing), and has 0.6 WAR this year despite hitting way worse. Avi has a career -0.4 WAR, though granted he's been very young in his spells up.

 

In terms of absolute ceiling, I think Garcia is a 5-6 WAR type of player - fairly neutral defensively with pure raw talent that could lead to a .300, 30 HR, 130-150 wRC+. I don't believe there's a very good chance he gets to that, but I believe that's his absolute ceiling. More likely, he turns into a .280, 20 HR, 110-130 wRC+ type of player with below average defense, which is more of a 1-3 WAR player, which is far more inherently replaceable. I don't know that Castro will be a good hitter - there was a lot about his season last year that screamed regression, which is what we're seeing now - but he's still a very valuable player who is much more likely to be a starter for several years.

 

There's no way the Astros would take Garcia for Castro though. Something to consider, especially with his stock down as much as it is, would be Garcia and Erik Johnson for Castro plus another prospect of theirs (whose stock is down), but it just seems too complicated at this juncture to even make those moves.

[GreenSox]

I was on my soapbox in the offseason, and I think went as far as to say the Sox offseason plan should center around trading for Castro. Crap... He's been TERRIBLE this year.

 

And as a sidenote, his statline exposes Flowers' entirely EMPTY batting average.

 

 

Castro 218/297/363 - 82 Ks

Flowers 237/296/326 - 92 Ks

 

and for s***s and giggles....

 

Grandal 196/285/354 - 49 Ks

 

Maybe keeping Flowers wasn't such a bad thing? *shrug*

That's why I'm willing to accept an offensive black hole at catcher and just find one who can catch and handle the pitchers. the price to trade for a catcher is immense. And the risk is high. And even then, if you have a catcher who can hit, but have a Viciedo in LF, what have you gained? Nothing.

 

But now is the time to move on one of these guys, if we must...when the price is low (and if it isn't low, don't move).

Edited June 30, 2014 by GreenSox

[Jake]

Also bear in mind that Castro is approaching FA

[Eminor3rd]

Then you're talking about finding two corner outfield bats and a LH/DH.

 

Yes, I am cognizant of the fact that catching is extremely difficult to develop. It seems no matter what/who we trade, let's say Alexei Ramirez, it opens up another gaping hole somewhere else in the major league line-up.

 

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't love to have Castro, but not for Garcia. It all depends on how he responses to his injury, of course, but I am bullish on him and his future contributions. Bear it mind the kid just turned 23, he's still developing.

 

I'd just much rather be scrambling to find a corner OF than scrambling to find a C.

 

As far as Avi goes, I understand that I'm lower on him than anyone else on the board, but the reality is that he has a LOT to learn both offensively AND defensively, and it just isn't a given that he will. When you consider how completely clueless he's look on both sides of the ball, all of a sudden 23 doesn't seem so young.

 

Talent in spades, no doubt. But he still has to learn to play.

[GreenSox]

"we would still need a headliner like Giolito because we still value Harrell highly."

 

 

Rick Hahn darn well better ask for a headliner for Scott Carroll.

 

 

 

[royoung]

I'd just much rather be scrambling to find a corner OF than scrambling to find a C.

 

As far as Avi goes, I understand that I'm lower on him than anyone else on the board, but the reality is that he has a LOT to learn both offensively AND defensively, and it just isn't a given that he will. When you consider how completely clueless he's look on both sides of the ball, all of a sudden 23 doesn't seem so young.

 

Talent in spades, no doubt. But he still has to learn to play.

 

I plead ignorance on his defense (I thought it was passable when watching live), but over 103 Major League games he is a .287/.323/.411 hitter. That's frankly amazing considering his age and how raw his approach at the plate is. The injury is a huge set back, I admit, but in the off-season I completely understand Hahn not being willing to discuss him in a deal for Castro.

Edited June 30, 2014 by southside hitman

[GreenSox]

I'd just much rather be scrambling to find a corner OF than scrambling to find a C.

Sure, but with Castro, you still may be scrambling.

 

But right now, his price should be a couple of clicks lower.

Edited June 30, 2014 by GreenSox

[witesoxfan]

Sure, but with Castro, you still may be scrambling.

 

But right now, his price should be a couple of clicks lower.

 

I don't think so. If you have a catcher who is good with the glove (both defensively and framing wise) while being able to talk to pitchers and throw guys out, anything you get offensively is a bonus. Castro has pretty well proven capable of the former and has shown potential (and produced to some extent as well) with the latter.

[Eminor3rd]

I plead ignorance on his defense (I thought it was passable when watching live), but over 103 Major League games he is a .287/.323/.411 hitter. That's frankly amazing considering his age and how raw his approach at the plate is. The injury is a huge set back, I admit, but in the off-season I completely understand Hahn not being willing to discuss him in a deal for Castro.

 

But when you say, "for his age," what you're really saying is that he is likely to improve -- which makes perfect sense in most cases. I'm saying that given how "raw" his approach is, one must wonder why it hasn't improved much already. He is a 23 year old who hits like a 19 year old. I'm not saying he won't or can't improve, but that we shouldn't assume that he necessarily will.

 

Throw in the shoulder injury, and just IMO, there's enough uncertainty there for me to move him for a C.

[GreenSox]

I don't think so. If you have a catcher who is good with the glove (both defensively and framing wise) while being able to talk to pitchers and throw guys out, anything you get offensively is a bonus. Castro has pretty well proven capable of the former and has shown potential (and produced to some extent as well) with the latter.

True, but if you traded for him last year, I would assume that the price would be for his hitting as fact; now, it's mere potential.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't think so. If you have a catcher who is good with the glove (both defensively and framing wise) while being able to talk to pitchers and throw guys out, anything you get offensively is a bonus. Castro has pretty well proven capable of the former and has shown potential (and produced to some extent as well) with the latter.

 

That's where I'm at, too. I'm assuming that he isn't going to repeat his 130 wRC+ from last year ever again. I'm totally, completely fine with 100 wRC+ with plus defense.

[royoung]

But when you say, "for his age," what you're really saying is that he is likely to improve -- which makes perfect sense in most cases. I'm saying that given how "raw" his approach is, one must wonder why it hasn't improved much already. He is a 23 year old who hits like a 19 year old. I'm not saying he won't or can't improve, but that we shouldn't assume that he necessarily will.

 

Throw in the shoulder injury, and just IMO, there's enough uncertainty there for me to move him for a C.

 

We haven't had the opportunity to watch his progress since he was in another organization, but we can look at his stats and analysis and see real improvement. Look at his stats 2011 and before and compare them to what he did in 2012 and 2013. To go from a .264/.297 BA/OBP in A+ to the video game numbers he was putting in AAA and holding his own in the majors is significant advancement.

 

Analysis from "Bless You Boys" below, highlighting his improvement as he rose through the Tigers system.

 

http://www.blessyouboys.com/detroit-tigers...-avisail-garcia

 

EDIT: Funny how a post that mentions Garcia exactly one time can inspire a full on discussion on his value, ability to improve, and defensive metrics. I love Soxtalk

Edited June 30, 2014 by southside hitman

[TaylorStSox]

I'd be shocked if Garcia ever hit 30 HR's. He's strong enough but he'd need to revamp his entire swing. There's a reason the Tigers gave him up for a slick fielding/no bat SS. He's a Groundball hitter that relies on speed and has a body type that's going to make him struggle with weight. As others have noted, he's an awful defender too. I'd move him in a second.

[oldsox]

I'd be shocked if Garcia ever hit 30 HR's. He's strong enough but he'd need to revamp his entire swing. There's a reason the Tigers gave him up for a slick fielding/no bat SS. He's a Groundball hitter that relies on speed and has a body type that's going to make him struggle with weight. As others have noted, he's an awful defender too. I'd move him in a second.

Geez, the kid hit over .370 at two AAA spots last year and hit over .300 with Sox. I think that justifies giving him at least one full year before hitting the Sell Avisail Button, even if he only hits 15 Homers a year.

[TaylorStSox]

Geez, the kid hit over .370 at two AAA spots last year and hit over .300 with Sox. I think that justifies giving him at least one full year before hitting the Sell Avisail Button, even if he only hits 15 Homers a year.

 

Fat guys that rely on speed won't sustain that kind of average. Maybe he's Tony Gwynn though.

[Chicago White Sox]

That's where I'm at, too. I'm assuming that he isn't going to repeat his 130 wRC+ from last year ever again. I'm totally, completely fine with 100 wRC+ with plus defense.

I think we'd all be, but the problem is the Astros may still sell him as a 130 wRC+ catcher. Given what they asked for Bud Norris & Lucas Harrell, I don't see them being realistic with their demands for Castro, not when he's one of their best chips.

 

I still think Grandal makes more sense for us. He's younger and under team control for an additional season, plus I think his bat projects better for our lineup. He won't be easy to get, regardless of his down year so far, but maybe a package centered around Davidson (assuming a rebound), Beck, and an A ball wild card would be something they'd consider in the offseason.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I think we'd all be, but the problem is the Astros may still sell him as a 130 wRC+ catcher. Given what they asked for Bud Norris & Lucas Harrell, I don't see them being realistic with their demands for Castro, not when he's one of their best chips.

 

I still think Grandal makes more sense for us. He's younger and under team control for an additional season, plus I think his bat projects better for our lineup. He won't be easy to get, regardless of his down year so far, but maybe a package centered around Davidson (assuming a rebound), Beck, and an A ball wild card would be something they'd consider in the offseason.

 

 

Isn't Grandal LH as well?

[Heads22]

Again, this is why it sucks so much that he got hurt.

[Chicago White Sox]

Isn't Grandal LH as well?

He's a switch-hitter, was actually pretty good against both RHP & LHP prior to this year. That trend has changed in 2014, as he's really struggling against LHP. Regardless, he'd some balance to lineup in terms of handedness and would fill part of our OBP need.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Marlins GM is now denying that he EVER tried to trade Stanton, says it's a joke.

 

Well no s***, that's not something you want your superstar to know.

[royoung]

Fat guys that rely on speed won't sustain that kind of average. Maybe he's Tony Gwynn though.

 

lol wut

[TaylorStSox]

lol wut

Garcia is naturally a fat guy. He's fat right now. He's a groundball hitter. He relies on speed. He has a flat swing and doesn't get much lift. It's a recipe for a bust. That's why the Tigers gave him up for a no bat SS.

[TaylorStSox]

The Cell is a horrible park for a guy with Garcia's make up too.