Another Cuban IF Available

[Balta1701]

QFT

 

I think Balta was just challenging the assertion that this kid will make a Puig-like (or even Viciedo-like) immediate impact.

There you go.

 

Even if this guy is a solid player, it's quite silly to predict that a 19 year old is going to be a big contributor to this team in a short period of time. That's just not how these things work, even with Cubans.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Teammate of Abreu and this International signing period was supposed to be what Hahn was very interested in doing. But now all the big money teams look they they are trying to sign the majority of the good prospects despite huge penalties for going over allotment before the rules change . I can't say with 100% certainty the Sox will sign him but they do need to make more of a splash than what we have been hearing lately about getting maybe 2 players and both outside the top 30.

[Chisoxfn]

There you go.

 

Even if this guy is a solid player, it's quite silly to predict that a 19 year old is going to be a big contributor to this team in a short period of time. That's just not how these things work, even with Cubans.

Gotcha. That was obviously in reference to someone else cause I have never made that statement.

[Chisoxfn]

Teammate of Abreu and this International signing period was supposed to be what Hahn was very interested in doing. But now all the big money teams look they they are trying to sign the majority of the good prospects despite huge penalties for going over allotment before the rules change . I can't say with 100% certainty the Sox will sign him but they do need to make more of a splash than what we have been hearing lately about getting maybe 2 players and both outside the top 30.

To me this is an intriguing situation because he suddenly became available and other teams have already spent a lot of resources so maybe that lessens the impact of who partakes. Probably not...teams like the Yanks probably just don't care.

[Balta1701]

Gotcha. That was obviously in reference to someone else cause I have never made that statement.

Correct, several people previously disagreed with me when I said that I kinda lean towards signing several 16 year olds as opposed to only signing 1 19 year old on the grounds that the 19 year old could contribute in a couple years. When they gave the example of Viciedo, I responded sarcastically that it worked out well because frankly Viciedo contributed a little early but he has not developed and did not contribute nearly as much as we'd have hoped to making this a competitive roster

[Chisoxfn]

Correct, several people previously disagreed with me when I said that I kinda lean towards signing several 16 year olds as opposed to only signing 1 19 year old on the grounds that the 19 year old could contribute in a couple years. When they gave the example of Viciedo, I responded sarcastically that it worked out well because frankly Viciedo contributed a little early but he has not developed and did not contribute nearly as much as we'd have hoped to making this a competitive roster

I would tell you much higher bust rate with those several 16 year olds vs. the 19 year old. I think it all comes down to something none of us have access to and that is the scouting. If this 19 year old, who is already playing on an elite stage in the Cuban leagues, is as good and projects as well as some indicate, it would seem that it might be beneficial to go after him vs. numerous 16 year olds who are much harder to pin-point. It is rare that elite 19 year old talents are available in this stage of the process since most are snapped up much earlier in the process (e.g., a few years ago). Still...19 year olds have high bust rates too, just lower then that of 16 year olds. I would think Sox might have better intel on this guy as most given the fact that we have Abreu in house (not that Abreu is a scout but probably could provide perspective on personality / work ethic / etc).

[caulfield12]

Comparing this kid with Viciedo at the same age (and considering the fact that Viciedo was kicked off the national team and missed significant development time in his late teens) is a lot more relevant than comparing him to Micker Zapata.

 

He was essentially viewed as the best young player in Cuban coming into Serie Nacional. And we all know the impact most of those guys, even Alexei Ramirez, have had at the big league level now...we can't say the same for 15-17 year old Dominicans who are barely holding their own in AZ.

[Balta1701]

Comparing this kid with Viciedo at the same age (and considering the fact that Viciedo was kicked off the national team and missed significant development time in his late teens) is a lot more relevant than comparing him to Micker Zapata.

 

He was essentially viewed as the best young player in Cuban coming into Serie Nacional. And we all know the impact most of those guys, even Alexei Ramirez, have had at the big league level now...we can't say the same for 15-17 year old Dominicans who are barely holding their own in AZ.

Personally I compared him to Jorge Soler, who was actually older at the time he signed and is still a couple years away.

[caulfield12]

Personally I compared him to Jorge Soler, who was actually older at the time he signed and is still a couple years away.

 

 

 

But we also don't have to give him $30-40 million, either.

 

We're talking about $3-5 million. I'll take 5-10 versions of this guy over one Soler every time.

[Balta1701]

But we also don't have to give him $30-40 million, either.

 

We're talking about $3-5 million. I'll take 5-10 versions of this guy over one Soler every time.

But signing Soler also didn't cost the Cubs a chance to sign 4-5 other guys either. You might get 5 versions of this guy if you don't sign him.

[caulfield12]

But signing Soler also didn't cost the Cubs a chance to sign 4-5 other guys either. You might get 5 versions of this guy if you don't sign him.

 

 

What's the success rate of those guys ranked in the top 30 over the last couple of seasons?

 

It's a crapshoot at best. Whereas none of those Dominicans have come close to proving themselves to be effective players on U16 National Teams or for a SERIE NACIONAL team.

 

Do you want Aiken/Kolek or Rodon? That's basically the same difference, between this kid and Adolfo. We need prospects who are hitting the prime of their careers in 2016-17-18.

Edited July 1, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

But we also don't have to give him $30-40 million, either.

 

We're talking about $3-5 million. I'll take 5-10 versions of this guy over one Soler every time.

 

For a team that is over their International signing bonus, or doesn't care about that number, there is literally zero reason not to blow away a low ball offer like that.

[Balta1701]

What's the success rate of those guys ranked in the top 30 over the last couple of seasons?

 

It's a crapshoot at best. Whereas none of those Dominicans have come to proving themselves to be effective players on U16 National Teams or for a SERIE NACIONAL team.

 

Do you want Aiken/Kolek or Rodon? That's basically the same difference, between this kid and Adolfo. We need prospects who are hitting the prime of their careers in 2016-17-18.

That's EXACTLY my point. This guy is a crapshoot as well. He may be a slightly higher chance of success crapshoot, but 5 chances could be better than 1.

 

And if we need "prospects who are hitting the prime of their careers in 2016-2018", he'll be 22-24. That's not even close to hitting the prime of his career. He'd barely be making the big leagues on a normal schedule by the end.

[Chisoxfn]

That's EXACTLY my point. This guy is a crapshoot as well. He may be a slightly higher chance of success crapshoot, but 5 chances could be better than 1.

 

And if we need "prospects who are hitting the prime of their careers in 2016-2018", he'll be 22-24. That's not even close to hitting the prime of his career. He'd barely be making the big leagues on a normal schedule by the end.

Caufield / Balta, lets forget about this prospects hitting the prime of their careers in 2016-2018. We need talent and accumulation of talent (when they hit their prime of their careers is irrelevant). I would argue I'd take a 1 Kolek / Aiken over 5 10th round picks. However, I don't know (not knowing anything other then what some reporters are saying) about this Cuban vs. the 16 year old we were previously rumored on. I tend to think this guy, playing where he did for Cuba, would rank that way, but I don't in fact know that.

[caulfield12]

Caufield / Balta, lets forget about this prospects hitting the prime of their careers in 2016-2018. We need talent and accumulation of talent (when they hit their prime of their careers is irrelevant). I would argue I'd take a 1 Kolek / Aiken over 5 10th round picks. However, I don't know (not knowing anything other then what some reporters are saying) about this Cuban vs. the 16 year old we were previously rumored on. I tend to think this guy, playing where he did for Cuba, would rank that way, but I don't in fact know that.

 

 

If some were willing to give up the rest of a draft as long as we got Rodon/Adams signed, then the same type of thinking has to be in place here about taking this kid vs. 1 guy ranked 25-35 and then 4-5 guys in the hundreds of thousands for bonuses.

[Chisoxfn]

If some were willing to give up the rest of a draft as long as we got Rodon/Adams signed, then the same type of thinking has to be in place here about taking this kid vs. 1 guy ranked 25-35 and then 4-5 guys in the hundreds of thousands for bonuses.

I would not give up the rest of an MLB draft for those two.

[caulfield12]

I would not give up the rest of an MLB draft for those two.

 

 

Okay, and the Univ. of Missouri/Tommy John pitcher.

[Balta1701]

If some were willing to give up the rest of a draft as long as we got Rodon/Adams signed, then the same type of thinking has to be in place here about taking this kid vs. 1 guy ranked 25-35 and then 4-5 guys in the hundreds of thousands for bonuses.

 

 

I would not give up the rest of an MLB draft for those two.

 

 

Okay, and the Univ. of Missouri/Tommy John pitcher.

So basically here's the question. Is this guy a sure thing, top of the draft, almost can't miss guy, or is he a guy who could go in the teens or lower who has a high ceiling but a high bust rate?

 

Because yeah, if you convinced me he's a version of Tulowitzki except healthy, I'm going to be game as well, but if he's a talented but raw guy like most 19 year olds are, then having a whole bunch of 16-17 year old wild cards could do more for the org long term than having him.

[caulfield12]

So basically here's the question. Is this guy a sure thing, top of the draft, almost can't miss guy, or is he a guy who could go in the teens or lower who has a high ceiling but a high bust rate?

 

Because yeah, if you convinced me he's a version of Tulowitzki except healthy, I'm going to be game as well, but if he's a talented but raw guy like most 19 year olds are, then having a whole bunch of 16-17 year old wild cards could do more for the org long term than having him.

 

 

From everything you read, there are some parallels with Alexei Ramirez.

 

He's one of the fastest players in Cuba...and he's equally comfortable playing 3B, SS and 2B. That's the kind of versatility we need, a Ben Zobrist who can actually play all those positions capably and be a credible threat offensively.

 

Remember, Alexei came to the White Sox as a CF/2B.

[Balta1701]

From everything you read, there are some parallels with Alexei Ramirez.

 

He's one of the fastest players in Cuba...and he's equally comfortable playing 3B, SS and 2B. That's the kind of versatility we need, a Ben Zobrist who can actually play all those positions capably and be a credible threat offensively.

 

Remember, Alexei came to the White Sox as a CF/2B.

But no one would ever have said that Alexei was a candidate to be one of the best players in the big leagues. You're not making a strong case here that he's a guy who would be a top 5 pick.

[caulfield12]

But no one would ever have said that Alexei was a candidate to be one of the best players in the big leagues. You're not making a strong case here that he's a guy who would be a top 5 pick.

 

 

The Cubs paid Concepcion better than the first pick in the draft, or the Phillies with Miguel Angel Gonzalez. Or look at the money the Dodgers gave two middle infielders that are parked in the minors.

 

It's hard to compare the under 23 international spending area with the June draft, anyway...and then again with the amount they would be willing to spend on an Abreu or Tanaka.

 

That said, Abreu's very familiar with this kid, so surely Hahn has already had that conversation about his ability, work ethic, how he would fit in chemistry-wise, etc.

 

You can also look at it like this...would you rather give Ben Zobrist, for example, $75 million or this kid $3-5 million?

 

 

The thing is....we know the Cuban players intimately now through our relationships with Torres, with El Duque and Contreras, through our 4 current Cuban players...I trust that network 10X more anything we have going in the Dominican right now, at least until we start to see some real/tangible results.

Edited July 2, 2014 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

The Cubs paid Concepcion better than the first pick in the draft, or the Phillies with Miguel Angel Gonzalez. Or look at the money the Dodgers gave two middle infielders that are parked in the minors.

 

It's hard to compare the under 23 international spending area with the June draft, anyway...and then again with the amount they would be willing to spend on an Abreu or Tanaka.

 

That said, Abreu's very familiar with this kid, so surely Hahn has already had that conversation about his ability, work ethic, how he would fit in chemistry-wise, etc.

 

You can also look at it like this...would you rather give Ben Zobrist, for example, $75 million or this kid $3-5 million?

 

 

The thing is....we know the Cuban players intimately now through our relationships with Torres, with El Duque and Contreras, through our 4 current Cuban players...I trust that network 10X more anything we have going in the Dominican right now, at least until we see some real results.

No, I won't look at it that way because we're going to spend the $3-$5 million anyway. We're not going under budget on international signings according to anyone. The question is whether I'd prefer to lump it all in this guy or to go and sign as many 16 year olds with bats as I can find. That comparison doesn't work. If we signed this guy, it would make absolutely no difference regarding whether we need to make a major signing for whatever position in the next 3-4 years, because he's a 19 year old and he won't be a major contributor to the big league club for 3-4 years at the very least if everything goes beautifully.

 

[caulfield12]

No, I won't look at it that way because we're going to spend the $3-$5 million anyway. We're not going under budget on international signings according to anyone. The question is whether I'd prefer to lump it all in this guy or to go and sign as many 16 year olds with bats as I can find. That comparison doesn't work. If we signed this guy, it would make absolutely no difference regarding whether we need to make a major signing for whatever position in the next 3-4 years, because he's a 19 year old and he won't be a major contributor to the big league club for 3-4 years at the very least if everything goes beautifully.

 

That's where we will have to agree to disagree, and neither of us know the answer as it's all just speculation.

 

If it's 2 years instead of 4-5, and he's projected to be a true impact player by Abreu, then I'd put all my eggs in that one basket.

 

If you can instead put him on the Hawkins/Anderson track, and you're just adding pipeline depth/lottery tickets, then pass.

[Balta1701]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree, and neither of us know the answer as it's all just speculation.

 

If it's 2 years instead of 4-5, and he's projected to be a true impact player by Abreu, then I'd put all my eggs in that one basket.

 

If you can instead put him on the Hawkins/Anderson track, and you're just adding pipeline depth/lottery tickets, then pass.

How many 21 year olds are "impact players" in the big leagues?

 

If he's the next Mike Trout I'd be willing to give up this year's signing pool for him, but the fact that we see 21 year olds who are major contributors once every couple years at best should make it clear how rare what you're saying he needs to do actually is.

 

Are you certain he's the next Mike Trout?

[Eminor3rd]

That's where we will have to agree to disagree, and neither of us know the answer as it's all just speculation.

 

If it's 2 years instead of 4-5, and he's projected to be a true impact player by Abreu, then I'd put all my eggs in that one basket.

 

If you can instead put him on the Hawkins/Anderson track, and you're just adding pipeline depth/lottery tickets, then pass.

 

I haven't read anything that suggests he has the talent level to be that kind of guy. It's always possible, but it doesn't sound like it's any more likely than with your average decent SS prospect.