Sox willing to deal Beckham in "right deal now"

[Dick Allen]

He's really not a good fielder. Range is extremely limited. Only thing he does good defensively is leverage his shortstop arm on double plays.

I think the lack of range think is overplayed. I know one huge reason he is given such a long rope is his arm. Hahn is trying to assemble a staff of groundball pitchers. It's one reason why I think he would be out of his mind to trade Alexei, with Beckham out the door, unless blown away. You put a couple of rookies or near rookies up the middle, there are going to be plenty of force outs that used to be DPs that wind up turning into runs.

[Chisoxfn]

I still like him, and admit he's been pretty awful the past 40 games or so, but agree with the BAPIP premise. It's easy to say someone has been unlucky looking at fangraphs, andBeckham has hit some balls hard and has been a victim of weather conditions, but in this slump, and I'm his biggest fan, he pretty much is hitting what he deserves BABIP-wise. On the other hand, unless you have seen Semien's ABs, saying his low BABIP is a product of extreme unluck is speculation.

I fully agree; I've long thought BAPIP, while interesting, is a pretty overrated / overrelied upon stat. I'm sure 20 years ago people would have been talking about Tony Gwynn's BAPIP as being unsustainable. I think you'd be better focusing on line drive rates and actual indicators of how a guy is hitting. If I were in the majors, I'd have a BAPIP of 0 (this is assuming I actually was able to put a ball in play)...does that mean I'm the most unlucky hitter in the world and should revert to some better number; no, absolutely not; It would be because I am a BAD hitter. I understand BAPIP a bit when it comes to looking at larger sample sizes of players who have proven themselves to see if potentially they've hit a string of bad luck, but again, I could just as easily focus on average and line drive rates vs. historic line drive rates of an individual player and probably get a more meaningful result.

[harfman77]

You mean other than hit for power, draw walks, reduce his strike out rate, and get killed by a poor BABIP.

 

I'm not saying Semien is perfect, and perhaps there are still things they are in need of working out, but he has been a lot better than people think in AAA despite the .238 average.

 

His OBP was .287 and his slugging was at .327, both numbers below what Beckham has produced this season and over his career. I am not saying the Sox need to move on from him, he is doing what he should be doing at AAA, working on adjusting his game to the upper levels. Coming into this season, I did not want him on the ML roster as I thought he was being moved along to quickly. There is no harm in keeping him at AAA for the time being. Semiens AAA K rate is inline with what he has put up all through his minor league career, then doubled when he hit MLB, which would lead me to believe that he was in over his head a bit. I think he should finish the season in AAA getting his work in defensively and come up once the Knights season is over.

[witesoxfan]

BABIP can fluctuate with position players a lot more. Good hitters will get more base hits on balls in play, while bad hitters will get fewer hits. There are other aspects of it as well, but my case in point regarding Semien is based on his power still being present while his BABIP is low. Beckham has not been hitting for power. That may not be the case in Semien's instance, but it's not a bad assumption.

 

BTW, Gwynn's career BABIP of .341 was perfectly sustainable. We don't hit batted ball date from that far back, but it's safe to say that he primarily hit line drives.

[Eminor3rd]

I fully agree; I've long thought BAPIP, while interesting, is a pretty overrated / overrelied upon stat. I'm sure 20 years ago people would have been talking about Tony Gwynn's BAPIP as being unsustainable. I think you'd be better focusing on line drive rates and actual indicators of how a guy is hitting. If I were in the majors, I'd have a BAPIP of 0 (this is assuming I actually was able to put a ball in play)...does that mean I'm the most unlucky hitter in the world and should revert to some better number; no, absolutely not; It would be because I am a BAD hitter. I understand BAPIP a bit when it comes to looking at larger sample sizes of players who have proven themselves to see if potentially they've hit a string of bad luck, but again, I could just as easily focus on average and line drive rates vs. historic line drive rates of an individual player and probably get a more meaningful result.

 

It's an extremely valuable frame of reference. Sure Tony Gwynn breaks the mold, but he's a Hall of Famer and a generational talent, and even he couldn't keep it over .400. That should tell you a LOT about when guys like Beckham or Flowers are over .500 for stretches. It's a critical factor if you're trying to decide if a guy has figured something out or not.

 

The thing about line drive rates is that they are not particularly stable either, which is what makes xBABIP an interesting stat too.

[elrockinMT]

He's really not a good fielder. Range is extremely limited. Only thing he does good defensively is leverage his shortstop arm on double plays.

 

I think we are watching and talking about two different people

[caulfield12]

That's fine, but every game thread, if Beckham makes an out it seems posters start foaming at the mouth. He's been bad. He's admitted that, but I don't see why it is necessary to bring Semien up now, and not wait a while. Anyone can say he's ready, but how can anyone really know that? It isn't like he's dominating. Let it go a few more weeks, maybe Beckham finds some luck, someone gets hurt and another team trades for him, and maybe Semien gets hot, he was good last night and comes up confident. It seems to me the reason people want Semien is based more on Beckham than Semien. I think the White Sox need to call him up based on him and not Beckham, he was on the roster because of Beckham's injury initially and was in a bit over his head, or they wind up having more problems down the road.

 

 

The same reason the Cubs brought up Baez in August.

 

Because you can't simply go on September results to determine if he (Semien) should be a projected starter coming into 2015 season...45+ games gives you a far bigger sample size than 25 games. (Not to mention he's a natural SS, so he needs to show how well he can play 2B at the major league level, as they might move Russell to 2B and Baez to 3B or a corner OF spot, or keep Bryant at 3B or move him to RF).

 

We've seen guys like Fields or Morel look good in September and then POOF it disappears the next season when it really counts and the weather's cold.

Edited August 7, 2014 by caulfield12

[Chisoxfn]

I fully agree; I've long thought BAPIP, while interesting, is a pretty overrated / overrelied upon stat. I'm sure 20 years ago people would have been talking about Tony Gwynn's BAPIP as being unsustainable. I think you'd be better focusing on line drive rates and actual indicators of how a guy is hitting. If I were in the majors, I'd have a BAPIP of 0 (this is assuming I actually was able to put a ball in play)...does that mean I'm the most unlucky hitter in the world and should revert to some better number; no, absolutely not; It would be because I am a BAD hitter. I understand BAPIP a bit when it comes to looking at larger sample sizes of players who have proven themselves to see if potentially they've hit a string of bad luck, but again, I could just as easily focus on average and line drive rates vs. historic line drive rates of an individual player and probably get a more meaningful result.

By the way, I do agree with some of the other points you bring up regarding Beckham and Semien being separated and just because we don't see a future in Beckham doesn't mean we just plug and play Semien. Semien was up a little earlier then expected and clearly was in a little over his head and went back to AAA with some more things to work on. While I want him up and would like him to get valuable at bats and more importantly allow our front office and scouts to get a better view and better idea as to whether we can count on Marcus, the fact that we have other internal options if Marcus struggles, probably allows the franchise to be more conservative in waiting because there are some other guys who have nice tools and could work at the position as well (Sanchez / Micah).

 

I happen to think Semien will play at this level but again, nothing wrong with letting him get his bumps and continue to work on his game at AAA, plus to your point, he isn't lighting it up and I do really think there is something to be said about bringing a guy up when he is confident. Also by letting him go through the struggles in the majors, then go down to the minors and make adjustments and actually succeed based upon those adjustments (hopefully that happens and we see a nice hot streak), he will also have been able to pass a big mental hurdle which will be so important in his early major league development.

 

You also had another great point on not having an entirely new middle infield and I think that is probably a very underrated reason why Alexei stays around (not to mention the fact that he's signed to a fair price and is one of the leagues top shortstops). I also don't see Semien, Johnson or Sanchez playing well enough defensively to fit in at SS. Rondon is the guy we have and he's still a ways a way (and again very raw; I'm probably the highest on him on this entire site and it is because I believe you have to have strong up the middle defense in this current era of baseball and that up the middle defense focuses more significantly on SS / CF / C.

[witesoxfan]

You also had another great point on not having an entirely new middle infield and I think that is probably a very underrated reason why Alexei stays around (not to mention the fact that he's signed to a fair price and is one of the leagues top shortstops). I also don't see Semien, Johnson or Sanchez playing well enough defensively to fit in at SS. Rondon is the guy we have and he's still a ways a way (and again very raw; I'm probably the highest on him on this entire site and it is because I believe you have to have strong up the middle defense in this current era of baseball and that up the middle defense focuses more significantly on SS / CF / C.

 

Pffft, you had him ranked 9th, which is clearly lower than my 8th ranking.

[Andy the Clown]

Using the same criteria, Gordon Beckham has been extremely unlucky, yet all anyone says is he sucks. You mentioned his walk/k ration. Last year he had more walks than strikeouts, yet that translated to 16 walks and a league leading at the time 57 strikeouts when he was sent back to AAA. He still fans more than he walks in AAA. I don't see how that translates to instant success. We are about 3 weeks away from roster expansion. That would be a good time to call him up. There is no reason to rush. No decision on his future is going to be decided if he got called up and was awesome or horrible the next 15 games anyway.

 

Does Yoko give you advice on evaluating talent? That's what it seems like.

[Chisoxfn]

I think we are watching and talking about two different people

Pitching, defense, pure hitting (guys who can handle a stick), and speed are my four favorite parts of a baseball game. When I watch games, I'm usually extremely focused on what guys are doing, the jumps they get, the range they display, the balls they get to and the balls they don't, and having watched as much as I have, Gordon's range is just simply not very good, when compared to other 2nd basemen and it has declined over the past few years. I used to think Beckham was one of the 2 or 3 best defensive 2nd baseman in the game but I think people who have that opinion or even that he is above average are completely wrong and going off of past performance. I also believe the stats as much as I question a lot of statistics, back up what my eyes are telling me as well. I could live with someone saying he is average to slightly below average. I don't think he's the worst defensive player in the game, but at average to slightly below average (and that would be lower based purely on range but is bumped up due to his strong arm and an above average ability to turn the DP) when combined with a weak bat, you are talking about one of the worst starting 2nd basemen in baseball.

[Andy the Clown]

Using the same criteria, Gordon Beckham has been extremely unlucky, yet all anyone says is he sucks. You mentioned his walk/k ration. Last year he had more walks than strikeouts, yet that translated to 16 walks and a league leading at the time 57 strikeouts when he was sent back to AAA. He still fans more than he walks in AAA. I don't see how that translates to instant success. We are about 3 weeks away from roster expansion. That would be a good time to call him up. There is no reason to rush. No decision on his future is going to be decided if he got called up and was awesome or horrible the next 15 games anyway.

 

There is a difference between Semien's walk/K rate in AAA this year vs. last year. His ratio at AA last year is not akin to his ratio at AAA this year. Quit acting like AA and AAA are the same thing.

[Andy the Clown]

I happen to think that present day Tony Gwynn could still outhit present day Gordon Beckham.

 

Please discuss. I'll hang up and listen.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Andy the Clown

[Rowand44]

I happen to think that present day Tony Gwynn could still outhit present day Gordon Beckham.

 

Please discuss. I'll hang up and listen.

I laughed.

[Chisoxfn]

The same reason the Cubs brought up Baez in August.

 

Because you can't simply go on September results to determine if he (Semien) should be a projected starter coming into 2015 season...45+ games gives you a far bigger sample size than 25 games. (Not to mention he's a natural SS, so he needs to show how well he can play 2B at the major league level, as they might move Russell to 2B and Baez to 3B or a corner OF spot, or keep Bryant at 3B or move him to RF).

 

We've seen guys like Fields or Morel look good in September and then POOF it disappears the next season when it really counts and the weather's cold.

If a guy can play passable at SS, he'll be able to play 2B. Might have to work on certain nuances but he can play.

[Lillian]

I agree that the Sox should make every effort to dump Beckham, and give as many at bats as possible to one of their promising, middle infield prospects. However, Carlos Sanchez is my personal preference. He seems to have made the necessary adjustments, at each successively higher level of play, and at the young age of 22, is having a very productive season repeating AAA.

 

His splits are especially intriguing:

IN 263 AB as a left handed hitter he has been terrific:

AVG. .338 OBP .392 SLG .468

His numbers from the right side are not nearly as good, which leads one to wonder if he might be better served by abandoning his switch hitting, and just bat exclusively left handed. Hitting from the left side would also maximize his ability to successfully bunt for hits, thus employing his plus speed.

 

Sanchez is regarded as the best defensive middle infielder of the bunch, currently being considered, which includes Micah Johnson, Marcus Semien, and T. Saladino (TJ Surgery). Moreover, he profiles better at 2B than SS. Sanchez would seem to be the best candidate to replace Beckham.

 

I see Semien as a possible platoon with Gillaspie, unless, or until Davidson figures it out on both offense and defense. That is, of course, if he can at least demonstrate the ability to hit respectably at Charlotte. That team has put up some very impressive offensive numbers, in games in which Semien hasn't really done much.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Lillian

[witesoxfan]

I just want to say that this has been a good discussion so far, so let's try and keep snark and venom out of the discussion. This one can get a bit heated at times, just want to make sure we all keep level head.

[Jake]

Gordon has been a well below average BABIP player throughout his time in the majors. His current BABIP mirrors his 2012 BABIP. The reason Gordon always has a low BABIP is because he has an astronomically high IFBB% - that is, a really high rate of popping up.

 

Semien's BABIP is .246 but his career low at any level is .293. That's why we're saying he's probably due for an upwards adjustment. He has a nice high walk rate, an unalarming K rate, and an impressive ISO. That means he's hit for quite a bit of power. Since the beginning of July, he's put up a .271/.379/.512 line with 21BB/24K, 6 HR, 11 2B, 1 3B. Sounds like a guy who is ready to me.

[GGajewski18]

Off topic from Beckham and I don't want to start a new thread but,

 

Has there been any rumors or anything on any Sox players clearing or being claimed on waivers? Let alone being put on waivers?

[brian310]

Off topic from Beckham and I don't want to start a new thread but,

 

Has there been any rumors or anything on any Sox players clearing or being claimed on waivers? Let alone being put on waivers?

 

I'm just going to assume that Dunn, Beckham, Danks and probably a few relievers have already cleared. These guys should have been placed on waiver 3:01 pm July 31.

[Dick Allen]

There is a difference between Semien's walk/K rate in AAA this year vs. last year. His ratio at AA last year is not akin to his ratio at AAA this year. Quit acting like AA and AAA are the same thing.

AA is closer to AAA than AAA is to the majors and you are totally ignoring what his rate was in the major leagues. Considering what his rate was and not much difference in AAA from when he was sent down to now, I don't see where the evidence is he has improved.

Edited August 7, 2014 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

Why would Be ham's range be declining already?

[Balta1701]

Why would Be ham's range be declining already?

Why? I have no idea. All I know is that it's what both my eyes and the numbers see. He has been living off his reputation as a solid defensive 2b since 2011 and getting worse every single year. Injury? Out of shape? Lack of practice? poor positioning? no clue, but that's what has happened.

[Jake]

This is not to mention that the disappointing version of Semien this year still outperformed what we've gotten from Gordon this year.

[caulfield12]

By the way, I do agree with some of the other points you bring up regarding Beckham and Semien being separated and just because we don't see a future in Beckham doesn't mean we just plug and play Semien. Semien was up a little earlier then expected and clearly was in a little over his head and went back to AAA with some more things to work on. While I want him up and would like him to get valuable at bats and more importantly allow our front office and scouts to get a better view and better idea as to whether we can count on Marcus, the fact that we have other internal options if Marcus struggles, probably allows the franchise to be more conservative in waiting because there are some other guys who have nice tools and could work at the position as well (Sanchez / Micah).

 

I happen to think Semien will play at this level but again, nothing wrong with letting him get his bumps and continue to work on his game at AAA, plus to your point, he isn't lighting it up and I do really think there is something to be said about bringing a guy up when he is confident. Also by letting him go through the struggles in the majors, then go down to the minors and make adjustments and actually succeed based upon those adjustments (hopefully that happens and we see a nice hot streak), he will also have been able to pass a big mental hurdle which will be so important in his early major league development.

 

You also had another great point on not having an entirely new middle infield and I think that is probably a very underrated reason why Alexei stays around (not to mention the fact that he's signed to a fair price and is one of the leagues top shortstops). I also don't see Semien, Johnson or Sanchez playing well enough defensively to fit in at SS. Rondon is the guy we have and he's still a ways a way (and again very raw; I'm probably the highest on him on this entire site and it is because I believe you have to have strong up the middle defense in this current era of baseball and that up the middle defense focuses more significantly on SS / CF / C.

 

We need Jose Iglesias (expendable with the Tigers now content with Suarez), Rondon and Leury Garcia for the most entertaining from a defensive standpoint, yet most offensively-challenged infield in baseball.

 

Carlos Sanchez would be the next choice.

 

Has there ever been any talk about Micah Johnson at SS? This is the first I've heard it. What happened to the idea that Sanchez was a "plus" defender, by the way? Because he's apparently put on weight and hasn't remained his quickness for SS? Arm?

Edited August 8, 2014 by caulfield12