2015 MLB Draft

[Y2Jimmy0]

a great analysis esp the bold. nice!!!

 

my take

 

1.) Arizona - Swanson-ss

2.) Houston - college pitcher (they were just looking for a pitching help)

3.) Colorado - pitcher top avail / rodgers-ss (they need pitching help in the system)

4.) Texas - pitcher

5.) Houston - Tucker

6.) Minnesota - bergman / benintendi (they wouldn't mind a top prep here)

7.) Boston - bergman / pitching

8.) Sox -

 

 

I think Houston goes with 2 position players. If I had to predict, I'd go with:

1. Arizona-Dansby Swanson SS

2. Houston- Brendan Rodgers SS

3. Colorado- Tyler Jay LHP

4. Texas- Alex Bregman 2B

5. Houston- Daz Cameron CF

6. Minnesota- Dillon Tate RHP

7. Boston- Andrew Benintendi CF

8. Sox-Carson Fulmer RHP

[LDF]

I think Houston goes with 2 position players. If I had to predict, I'd go with:

1. Arizona-Dansby Swanson SS

2. Houston- Brendan Rodgers SS

3. Colorado- Tyler Jay LHP

4. Texas- Alex Bregman 2B

5. Houston- Daz Cameron CF

6. Minnesota- Dillon Tate RHP

7. Boston- Andrew Benintendi CF

8. Sox-Carson Fulmer RHP

 

nice one.

[Boopa1219]

I know you're just saying you'd like that but I think we can safely limit the Sox to college pitchers. Stephenson's swing is vicious though.

 

Unfortunately, it seems like Harris is their backup plan which sucks for me. Not to throw out a lazy, convenient comparison but he's more of a Broadway/McCulloch type than someone we could get really excited about. Both Kiley McDaniel have alluded to Harris being the back up if Jay/Fulmer (probably were't considering Tate sliding which I still see as remote) there at #8. Law also amped up the Sox-Jay connection last week. Even insinuated that Colorado could craft their offer to Jay around the Sox slot value plus a kicker.

 

 

This is very real scenario. All depends on what Texas is doing in my mind. They've been hush-hush and could go with any of Bregman/Cameron/Tate. Nothing is ever set in the draft but it seems like your first three picks, with Swanson/Rodgers being interchangeable, are close to consensus at this point.

 

Everyone said the Sox were going to draft a college am in 2012 and they didn't.

 

Im not thattt high on Harris, and if Jay is off the board at 8, i dont think there's another college arm worth taking there.

 

[bmags]

I know you're just saying you'd like that but I think we can safely limit the Sox to college pitchers. Stephenson's swing is vicious though.

 

Unfortunately, it seems like Harris is their backup plan which sucks for me. Not to throw out a lazy, convenient comparison but he's more of a Broadway/McCulloch type than someone we could get really excited about. Both Kiley McDaniel have alluded to Harris being the back up if Jay/Fulmer (probably were't considering Tate sliding which I still see as remote) there at #8. Law also amped up the Sox-Jay connection last week. Even insinuated that Colorado could craft their offer to Jay around the Sox slot value plus a kicker.

 

 

This is very real scenario. All depends on what Texas is doing in my mind. They've been hush-hush and could go with any of Bregman/Cameron/Tate. Nothing is ever set in the draft but it seems like your first three picks, with Swanson/Rodgers being interchangeable, are close to consensus at this point.

Would be interesting to know how accurate those backup rumors are. It was around this time last year Nola to the sox was all over the place, especially that we'd draft Nola over Kolek. Had Rodon not been there, would be interesting to know if that were true.

[3GamesToLove]

Walker Buehler is starting for Vanderbilt at 3pm (Central); SEC Network.

[Dunt]

I know you're just saying you'd like that but I think we can safely limit the Sox to college pitchers. Stephenson's swing is vicious though.

 

Unfortunately, it seems like Harris is their backup plan which sucks for me. Not to throw out a lazy, convenient comparison but he's more of a Broadway/McCulloch type than someone we could get really excited about. Both Kiley McDaniel have alluded to Harris being the back up if Jay/Fulmer (probably were't considering Tate sliding which I still see as remote) there at #8. Law also amped up the Sox-Jay connection last week. Even insinuated that Colorado could craft their offer to Jay around the Sox slot value plus a kicker.

 

 

This is very real scenario. All depends on what Texas is doing in my mind. They've been hush-hush and could go with any of Bregman/Cameron/Tate. Nothing is ever set in the draft but it seems like your first three picks, with Swanson/Rodgers being interchangeable, are close to consensus at this point.

 

That Harris pick would be incredibly underwhelming, but I've heard murmurs about it as well

[harfman77]

That Harris pick would be incredibly underwhelming, but I've heard murmurs about it as well

 

I don't love the pick either, I think if the three pitchers are off the board you go underslot on one of the college bats.

 

Based on where things sit today, I could see the top 8 7 breaking out like:

 

1.1 - Diamondbacks - Tyler Jay

1.2 - Astros - Dansby Swanson

1.3 - Rockies - Brendan Rogers

1.4 - Rangers - Alex Bregman

1.5 - Astros - Dillon Tate

1.6 - Twins - Tyler Stephenson

1.7 - Red Sox - Carson Fulmer

1.8 -

 

Thats where the Sox have a conundrum. Reach on Harris, gamble on a HS bat like Cameron or Tucker, or go significantly underslot on one of the best college bats in either Christin or DJ Stewart and use the savings to come back and draft someone like Justin Hooper in round 4 and giving him low 1st round money.

[LDF]

I don't love the pick either, I think if the three pitchers are off the board you go underslot on one of the college bats.

 

Based on where things sit today, I could see the top 8 7 breaking out like:

 

1.1 - Diamondbacks - Tyler Jay

1.2 - Astros - Dansby Swanson

1.3 - Rockies - Brendan Rogers

1.4 - Rangers - Alex Bregman

1.5 - Astros - Dillon Tate

1.6 - Twins - Tyler Stephenson

1.7 - Red Sox - Carson Fulmer

1.8 -

 

Thats where the Sox have a conundrum. Reach on Harris, gamble on a HS bat like Cameron or Tucker, or go significantly underslot on one of the best college bats in either Christin or DJ Stewart and use the savings to come back and draft someone like Justin Hooper in round 4 and giving him low 1st round money.

hooper should be gone by the end of the 2nd round. imo, seeing how wrong i have been most of everything today, i wouldn't bet on me being right.

[harfman77]

hooper should be gone by the end of the 2nd round. imo, seeing how wrong i have been most of everything today, i wouldn't bet on me being right.

 

Thats entirely possible, but there are always HS guys that slip due to signability and Hooper was just an example. Hooper is a guy that it has been said would be unsignable if not drafted high enough, so, if the Sox had an excess in the amount that Hooper was looking for a deal could potentially be made. But that theory can be used interchangebly, the Cubs were able to get Carson Sands and Dylan Cease last year that way, the Sox could have signed de Montes Orca with that strategy last season.

[Buehrlesque]

I don't love the pick either, I think if the three pitchers are off the board you go underslot on one of the college bats.

 

Based on where things sit today, I could see the top 8 7 breaking out like:

 

1.1 - Diamondbacks - Tyler Jay

1.2 - Astros - Dansby Swanson

1.3 - Rockies - Brendan Rogers

1.4 - Rangers - Alex Bregman

1.5 - Astros - Dillon Tate

1.6 - Twins - Tyler Stephenson

1.7 - Red Sox - Carson Fulmer

1.8 -

 

Thats where the Sox have a conundrum. Reach on Harris, gamble on a HS bat like Cameron or Tucker, or go significantly underslot on one of the best college bats in either Christin or DJ Stewart and use the savings to come back and draft someone like Justin Hooper in round 4 and giving him low 1st round money.

This is pretty much worst-case scenario for what'd like to see. If this happens, any chance the Sox take Buehler instead of Harris? Or switch to a hitter and take Benintendi or Happ?

[3GamesToLove]

Tyler Jay just came into the regional title game in the 6th.

 

His brim is pretty flat. Someone else can have him.

[BlackSox13]

If the Sox cannot get one of Jay/ Fullmer/ Tate, I hope they go after Stewart or Happ.

[oldsox]

They're separate situations. 2012 was an assumption on past dealings. 2015 is the FO and all credible sources saying the exact same thing. If the Sox take someone other than a college pitcher I would guess a SS fell unexpectedly. They're not taking a HS hitter and this a garbage class (as a whole as well) for college bats.

 

 

Those rumors were accurate according to what I have from a source in the industry. The Sox wanted nothing to do with Kolek. He was designated an "open-open" guy which is a certain qualm that deters the Sox from drafting any pitcher of the like.

 

The problem with the draft last year was that no one, including the White Sox, knew what Miami was going to do. You had the hardest throwing high schooler of all time and a Cuban from Miami who was the best college pitching prospect since David Price. So you have Kolek, someone who is a very typical pick for the Marlins being a high ceiling high schooler and Rodon who was both a great prospect and a great fit for the team and city. The Sox knew Aiken was going #1. Rodon was their guy. He was the guy they wanted ever since it was understood they were going to lose 90+ games in 2013. Apparently the draft room was ecstatic, as were all of us, when Miami took Kolek. If Miami took Rodon, the Sox would have taken Nola and signed him underslot. This is what I was told and it was very close to what was being reported last June.

Nola is the Number 2 prospect for Phils, having solid year in AA.

[LDF]

If the Sox cannot get one of Jay/ Fullmer/ Tate, I hope they go after Stewart or Happ.

 

i can see why you say that. but if the college hitters is not up to par, and stewart had a great yr, then why is he not higher???

 

i am soo confuse in this draft.

[whitesoxfan99]

Tyler Jay just came into the regional title game in the 6th.

 

His brim is pretty flat. Someone else can have him.

 

Who knows how he will respond when he is actually part of a rotation but he easily held velocity into his 4th inning of work today which was good to see.

[Quin]

This is pretty much worst-case scenario for what'd like to see. If this happens, any chance the Sox take Buehler instead of Harris? Or switch to a hitter and take Benintendi or Happ?

 

This is the nightmare scenario for sure.

[fathom]

Who knows how he will respond when he is actually part of a rotation but he easily held velocity into his 4th inning of work today which was good to see.

 

And probably guaranteed he's long gone by 8

[fathom]

This is the nightmare scenario for sure.

 

Give me Happ

[whitesoxfan99]

And probably guaranteed he's long gone by 8

 

Yeah, I would have loved to see him fall to the Sox (because I think he is really good with the added bonus that it would be kind of cool for me to have an Illini to cheer for as well) but just doesn't seem possible at this point. There is some risk with picking him because while he has shown in a couple of outings he can maintain his stuff after several innings you don't know if he can do that regularly but it just isn't that easy to find lefties throwing in the mid 90s who have great command and really good secondary stuff.

[BlackSox13]

i can see why you say that. but if the college hitters is not up to par, and stewart had a great yr, then why is he not higher???

 

i am soo confuse in this draft.

I guess my thinking is more along the lines of what the Cubs did with Schwarber last year. I was looking at BA's mock 3.0 from May 25, 2014 and they had the Cubs grabbing Penticost and Schwarber was listed to go 24th to the Pirates. instead, the cubs grabbed Schwarber with the 4th overall pick to which many including myself thought they were crazy.

 

I'm not saying the Sox would have the same success but I'd feel better taking Happ or Stewart over any pitchers not named Jay, Fullmer or Tate.

[LDF]

I guess my thinking is more along the lines of what the Cubs did with Schwarber last year. I was looking at BA's mock 3.0 from May 25, 2014 and they had the Cubs grabbing Penticost and Schwarber was listed to go 24th to the Pirates. instead, the cubs grabbed Schwarber with the 4th overall pick to which many including myself thought they were crazy.

 

I'm not saying the Sox would have the same success but I'd feel better taking Happ or Stewart over any pitchers not named Jay, Fullmer or Tate.

 

no i mean i like your thought process but i still like stewart over fulmer but hitter of his kind should be climbing. this leads me to my other player which i haven't mention yet.

[BlackSox13]

no i mean i like your thought process but i still like stewart over fulmer but hitter of his kind should be climbing. this leads me to my other player which i haven't mention yet.

I follow you. My first preference is pitching which is why I would prefer Jay, Fullmer or Tate, in that order but as others have pointed out, its looking less possible.

 

Who is the other player you have in mind?

[fathom]

The concern I have about going severely underslot with the first pick is that they'd have to wait something like 104 picks for their next selection. All it takes is a few other teams doing this same strategy, and the Sox could miss out on some guys they wanted. I'd much rather just go after the BPA with first pick.

[LDF]

I follow you. My first preference is pitching which is why I would prefer Jay, Fullmer or Tate, in that order but as others have pointed out, its looking less possible.

 

Who is the other player you have in mind?

 

a player i also really like is dewees in the top 5 in most offensive categories this yr. cf.

[LDF]

The concern I have about going severely underslot with the first pick is that they'd have to wait something like 104 picks for their next selection. All it takes is a few other teams doing this same strategy, and the Sox could miss out on some guys they wanted. I'd much rather just go after the BPA with first pick.

you got a point there,

 

but i see it as this, go underslot at #8, save $$$$. at round 4 a prep pitcher may drop and then the sox can come back and offer a equivalent to a late 1 rounder or comp A pick.