Time to sell high on Gillaspie?

[TheFutureIsNear]

Just curious to see what everybody's opinion is on this since mlbtraderumors listed Conor in their 3B trade market post today.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/trad...-basemen-3.html

 

Curious to see what the boards willingness to trade him is. Personally, I see a 3B with little pop and a .370 BAIP that screams trade him while his value is highest. His contract should also help and not be a deterrent for any team. However, that contract is also a big reason for us not to get rid of him....and Davidson sucking certainly doesn't help the idea of trading him. So would you trade him? And what do you think we could get?

Edited July 14, 2014 by TheFutureIsNear

[Jake]

This is an interesting idea and while I'm not sure I could stomach it, it would make a lot of sense to get a feel for what the market for him would be. The key would be taking my most trusted evaluators' opinions on Gillaspie to heart and if they think this won't last, then he gawn.

[Heads22]

I've always liked the idea of him being on our team somewhere - a lefty bat that can play 3B and 1B if need be. He's going to have a long career due to what he is.

[Jake]

Whether on our team or elsewhere, he would be well-served to learn how to play 2B and LF

[Vance Law]

Whether on our team or elsewhere, he would be well-served to learn how to play 2B and LF

 

I'd think left field is a better bet than 2nd base for him.

 

I don't imagine any team would give up anything of superior value for him because he wasn't a super-highly touted prospect, and he's only proven himself for half a season.

I also don't know why, in a rebuild, we'd want to give up someone this productive and cheap under team control. I suppose if someone offered us a very good young catcher or right handed starter, but I don't see it happening.

 

Even if Davidson does actually pan out an win the job from Gillaspie, platooning Conor at DH and having him back up at 3rd, 1st, and perhaps LF makes too much sense for our right-handed heavy lineup.

[GreenSox]

Likely not because we wouldn't be selling high. Sox won't get much for him because he's got a thin resume. If he had a couple of, say, average years and then did this, then you could sell high.

And honestly, it looks like we may have (stress MAY) found someone who can actually hit, with a good OBP and all. We're loaded with these guys with tools that can't get on base. Gillsapie's refreshing.

Edited July 14, 2014 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

What return is there for Gillaspie? What teams would even be interested?>

[GreenSox]

I'd think left field is a better bet than 2nd base for him.

 

I don't imagine any team would give up anything of superior value for him because he wasn't a super-highly touted prospect, and he's only proven himself for half a season.

I also don't know why, in a rebuild, we'd want to give up someone this productive and cheap under team control. I suppose if someone offered us a very good young catcher or right handed starter, but I don't see it happening.

 

Even if Davidson does actually pan out an win the job from Gillaspie, platooning Conor at DH and having him back up at 3rd, 1st, and perhaps LF makes too much sense for our right-handed heavy lineup.

Agree

I'd like to see him get some work in LF if there's any hope at all of him playing OF. If his hitting keeps up, he'd be a good OF for us - at least a good platoon OF. Get another one like him from the right side, and you have good production from left, plus some DH and 1B/eB backup.

[brian310]

Keep him. Let him work on left field in off season and let him get at bats between DH/1B/3B/LF next season.

[chw42]

.370 BABIP. Sell high.

[Chicago White Sox]

.370 BABIP. Sell high.

What would you expect his BABIP to settle at in the long-run?

[Vance Law]

What would you expect his BABIP to settle at in the long-run?

 

How about this, in 646 career PAs against right-handed pitching he's got a .322 BABIP, .294 Batting average, .813 OPS with 17 homers.

 

That's a valuable player to have considering he can get 500+ PAs against righties per year.

[Rowand44]

I'd be all for selling high on him if we could but I agree with some others that there's probably not much of a market for him.

[Chicago White Sox]

How about this, in 646 career PAs against right-handed pitching he's got a .322 BABIP, .294 Batting average, .813 OPS with 17 homers.

 

That's a valuable player to have considering he can get 500+ PAs against righties per year.

I agree 100% Vance. The BABIP may be high right now, but even if it falls to the .320 to .330 range, he's still an incredibly valuable hitter.

 

I think you have to listen to offers on him, but I would be hesitant in trading him given our lack of left-handed hitters.

[chw42]

What would you expect his BABIP to settle at in the long-run?

 

Probably around .320-.330 since he hits a lot of line drives.

 

[Eminor3rd]

This is an interesting idea and while I'm not sure I could stomach it, it would make a lot of sense to get a feel for what the market for him would be. The key would be taking my most trusted evaluators' opinions on Gillaspie to heart and if they think this won't last, then he gawn.

 

This

[chitownsportsfan]

Um no, you don't trade Conor unless you're bowled over by an offer. I don't care what his BABIP is the guy mashes RHP and plays a cromulent 3B, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Plus, it looks like Davidson might be the perfect right handed side of a 3B platoon.

 

This is a deal that might make sense to make this time next year. If Davidson is all that, and Conor continues to hit and increases his value, then you can trade Conor.

 

No rush, not when he's still pre-arb.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Um no, you don't trade Conor unless you're bowled over by an offer. I don't care what his BABIP is the guy mashes RHP and plays a cromulent 3B, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Plus, it looks like Davidson might be the perfect right handed side of a 3B platoon.

 

This is a deal that might make sense to make this time next year. If Davidson is all that, and Conor continues to hit and increases his value, then you can trade Conor.

 

No rush, not when he's still pre-arb.

Cromulent?

[chitownsportsfan]

Cromulent?

 

Word from the simpsons, it means "good enough" or "fair".

 

http://simpsons.wikia.com/wiki/Made-up_words

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Sometimes old timers need footnotes. Thanks.

[Eminor3rd]

Um no, you don't trade Conor unless you're bowled over by an offer. I don't care what his BABIP is the guy mashes RHP and plays a cromulent 3B, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Plus, it looks like Davidson might be the perfect right handed side of a 3B platoon.

 

This is a deal that might make sense to make this time next year. If Davidson is all that, and Conor continues to hit and increases his value, then you can trade Conor.

 

No rush, not when he's still pre-arb.

 

It comes down to what the team thinks players will do going forward. I don't mean in 5 years, but the next 1-2. We tend to fall in love with every guy as soon as he has a hot month because he are hoping for a breakout, but the reality is more complex. Our need is not now, it's maybe 2015 and definitely 2016. If we have a guy who we have reason to believe WON'T be a substantial contributor then, we need to try to move him for someone who we think will.

 

Keep the pieces that will likely continue to provide value going forward (Quintana) and move the pieces that likely won't (Alexei). I don't know where Gillaspie falls on that spectrum, but that is the answer to whether or not we should shop him. So when you say "I don't care what his BABIP is," you're making a mistake, because his BABIP is an important factor (just one, granted) in deciding what he's likely going to be over the next few years.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[elrockinMT]

I'd be all for selling high on him if we could but I agree with some others that there's probably not much of a market for him.

 

 

There can't be much of a market for a line drive doubles hitter batting over.300

[TheFutureIsNear]

Um no, you don't trade Conor unless you're bowled over by an offer. I don't care what his BABIP is the guy mashes RHP and plays a cromulent 3B, those guys don't exactly grow on trees. Plus, it looks like Davidson might be the perfect right handed side of a 3B platoon.

 

This is a deal that might make sense to make this time next year. If Davidson is all that, and Conor continues to hit and increases his value, then you can trade Conor.

 

No rush, not when he's still pre-arb.

 

His BABIP actually goes all the way up .407 if we are just talking against righties. In other words....his success right now is unsustainable. I don't think Conor is a bad player by any means, I see him as a .280/.340/.440 guy who can only hit 10 home runs a year. If that was my 2B I'd be ecstatic, but if he's going to be just "cromulent" at the corner IF positions he needs to produce more at the plate. He's the kind of guy that is fine for now, but you would hope to upgrade from.

 

But you are right, we shouldn't just give him away to any offer or anything like that, but let's just say hypothetically that a team like Toronto offers their 12th and 18 best prospects (whoever they may be) for Conor. Do you take that deal or are you still waiting?

 

[chitownsportsfan]

His BABIP has certainly been lucky, but his swing has really changed around, and if you want to regress one way, you have to do it another way: His hr/fb is 5.3%, coming into this year, it was almost double that. It could easily be that Conor has changed his approach, see this article (also has good quotes from Hahn about team building):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-note...-thielbar-more/

 

Now, personally, after reading that and looking at his stats, there is no doubt that Conor has decided to go with a more level swing plane this season.

 

And, before I get ahead of myself, I just did his xBABIP: .303.

 

I don't know, I've done a lot of research on Conor because he's one of my favorite player, it seems like he's been under-rated his entire career based on stats and scouting. I've seen a swing analyis of his and the guru basically said he has an easy, repeatable swing that isn't going to generate a lot of power but is also going to hit for decent average.

 

The knock on him is defense, and I get it, but if you only use him against RHP (not that Robin would know how a strict platoon works) then you have a very useful player.

 

And he's still really cheap. "Pot odds" on him, imo, say to play it out, if he's still an enigma when his arb hits, then swing a deal for need.

[OilCan]

It makes you wonder why, with his new mental approach to hitting, he isn't a fixture at the twohole:

 

“Do I wish I would hit 20 home runs? Yeah, I think everybody would. But I don’t think I can be as effective trying to do that. I’m content with hitting a hard ground ball through a hole, and it’s a good feeling to be able to get a base hit the other way. Like I said, with the guys we have in this lineup, I can help the team by getting on base and letting them do the damage.”

 

I get the idea of working with a balanced lineup with Connor hitting down the order, but the way he's been hitting lately, he's better off at the two spot hitting.