No Dunn trade talk?

[witesoxfan]

Oh that is so great Row.

 

but I said it

[southsider2k5]

Dunn's hitting plenty of HRs. He has hit one every 19.5 ABs this year. 19th best in all of baseball. Right on par with Pujols and Bautista. The reason his power numbers look so low is because he's lost 100+ PAs to our mascot. Add another 5-6 HRs and 15 RBIs and his numbers look a whole lot better.

 

Considering the fact that Konerko is playing basically mostly against lefties, and we all know how Dunn hits lefties, I'd argue the case that the reason Dunn's numbers are so "good" is because his exposure to his main weakness has been limited somewhat this year.

 

Dunn is 7-46 in 56 PAs against lefties this year, putting up a stellar .152BA .286OBP .239SLG .525OPS against them. He has exactly 1 homer in 56 ABs. Note that his slugging percentage is LESS than his OBP. That isn't easy to do.

 

On the other side, Konerko against lefties .267BA .300OBP .467SLG .767OPS, That is in 80PA/75 AB. If you to add those 75 ABs to Dunn's totals, along with the same .152 BAA that he has put up against lefties this years, Dunns BA would drop to .207 on the season. His HR/BA and all of this other power numbers would take a huge hit as well.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Considering the fact that Konerko is playing basically mostly against lefties, and we all know how Dunn hits lefties, I'd argue the case that the reason Dunn's numbers are so "good" is because his exposure to his main weakness has been limited somewhat this year.

 

Dunn is 7-46 in 56 PAs against lefties this year, putting up a stellar .152BA .286OBP .239SLG .525OPS against them. He has exactly 1 homer in 56 ABs. Note that his slugging percentage is LESS than his OBP. That isn't easy to do.

 

On the other side, Konerko against lefties .267BA .300OBP .467SLG .767OPS, That is in 80PA/75 AB. If you to add those 75 ABs to Dunn's totals, along with the same .152 BAA that he has put up against lefties this years, Dunns BA would drop to .207 on the season. His HR/BA and all of this other power numbers would take a huge hit as well.

 

56 PAs is not a big enough sample size to prove anything. Between 2012-2013 Dunn hit 21 HRs in 305 ABs versus left handed pitching. That is 1 every 14.5 ABs. Against right handers he hit 54 HRs in 759 ABs. That's 1 every 14.05 ABs. It's not his power numbers that suffer against lefties. You are also leaving out the fact that when you only play every 2 out 3 or 3 out of 4 games it is hard to get in a rhythm. Dunn's value has been hurt this year by our owner insisting on hanging on to Konerko and letting him take ABs away from Dunn when it was clearly time to move on.

[southsider2k5]

56 PAs is not a big enough sample size to prove anything. Between 2012-2013 Dunn hit 21 HRs in 305 ABs versus left handed pitching. That is 1 every 14.5 ABs. Against right handers he hit 54 HRs in 759 ABs. That's 1 every 14.05 ABs. It's not his power numbers that suffer against lefties. You are also leaving out the fact that when you only play every 2 out 3 or 3 out of 4 games it is hard to get in a rhythm. Dunn's value has been hurt this year by our owner insisting on hanging on to Konerko and letting him take ABs away from Dunn when it was clearly time to move on.

 

For his entire career the guy is sporting an OPS+ of 81 against lefties. His career HR/BA is 17.2 against lefties. Using his career numbers would give you three additional homers.

 

I do appreciate the data manipulation technique though.

 

Here are his HR/BA against lefties over his 4 years here.

 

2011 0/94

2012 15/183

2013 6/122

2014 1/56

 

During his entire time with Chicago you get 22 homers against lefties in 455 ABs.

 

2012 is a modern outlier. You could argue that 2011 is as well, but now you also have 2014. Realistically, he is a homer per 20 AB guy against lefties in this day and age. Even if older numbers basically show that, except for one year where he was 1/15.

 

Going back further

2010 9/166

2009 7/168

2008 10/154

2007 9/188

2006 11/224

2005 13/224

 

 

 

[Jerksticks]

I was thinking the whole point of having Konerko this year was to hide Dunn's uselessness against lefties. If it weren't for Konerko there would be more people hating him, not more power numbers.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I was thinking the whole point of having Konerko this year was to hide Dunn's uselessness against lefties. If it weren't for Konerko there would be more people hating him, not more power numbers.

 

No. The whole point of having Konerko this year is nostalgia. The Sox just can't seem to cut ties with him for whatever reason. If Konerko had retired, there would be no platoon. They would not have filled his role with anybody else. Dunn would be playing everyday.

[witesoxfan]

No. The whole point of having Konerko this year is nostalgia. The Sox just can't seem to cut ties with him for whatever reason. If Konerko had retired, there would be no platoon. They would not have filled his role with anybody else. Dunn would be playing everyday.

 

It was to act as a mentor and to act as a platoon partner against lefties because Dunn is terrible against lefties. The power remains but any sign of hitting for average that he had goes out the wayside. This was said from the outset.

[southsider2k5]

It was to act as a mentor and to act as a platoon partner against lefties because Dunn is terrible against lefties. The power remains but any sign of hitting for average that he had goes out the wayside. This was said from the outset.

 

The average suffers, as does the power. The numbers suffer across the board. He is career 81 OPS+ against lefties.

[lasttriptotulsa]

The average suffers, as does the power. The numbers suffer across the board. He is career 81 OPS+ against lefties.

 

You are looking at tOPS+. That is a completely different stat. tOPS+ starts off at a baseline of 100 and adjusts to show how much better or worse a player is in a certain split (such as vs LHP or RHP) relative to their overall performance. For example, Frank Thomas's tOPS+ against RHP is 93, 121 vs LHP. That number is not showing you what you think it is. A better stat to look at would be wRC+. Dunn's wRC+ against LHP is 103 for his career. Which is still better than average. I'm not saying he's better than average now, but he's not been as bad throughout his career as you are pretending he is.

Edited July 22, 2014 by lasttriptotulsa

[Dick Allen]

Dunn's home/road splits this year are amazing. He's been terrible at home, in a park seemingly made for him. On the road, he's been as good as he's ever been. I wonder if he's feeling the heat from the stands. On TV it doesn't seem so bad, but if you go by the dugout, when he strikes out, some pretty vulgar things come out of people's mouths. It's too bad someone's life must be so pathetic they get their kicks out of popping off like some do.

[Jerksticks]

He may be traded tmrw. Some team might seriously want to ride this hot streak.

[Balta1701]

He may be traded tmrw. Some team might seriously want to ride this hot streak.

I don't think any GM who actually made decisions like this would keep their job very long.

[BlackSox13]

Just a guess but if Dunn has not been traded come august, he will be released to allow for a Wilkins call up.

[witesoxfan]

Just a guess but if Dunn has not been traded come august, he will be released to allow for a Wilkins call up.

 

I highly doubt this. The Sox will work to make a trade prior to the deadline, but they'd likely just put him on waivers and if someone claims him, they'd likely let him go.

[BlackSox13]

I highly doubt this. The Sox will work to make a trade prior to the deadline, but they'd likely just put him on waivers and if someone claims him, they'd likely let him go.

We will find out soon enough. I can see the Sox giving Wilkins a shot the last two months to get more of an idea if he's the guy to replace Dunn when Dunn is gone which is why I can see the Sox releasing Dunn some time in august.

 

Hopefully Dunn is traded at the deadline, even if the Sox have to chip in a few bucks.

[harfman77]

Just a guess but if Dunn has not been traded come august, he will be released to allow for a Wilkins call up.

 

I can't see the Sox doing this. If Dunn were a locker room cancer or something perhaps they would eat the money to get him out of the locker room, but by all accounts he is a stand-up guy and well liked in the clubhouse. There is the possibility that the Sox may re-sign him at the end of the season as well, so I am not sure they want to sever the relationship in that way.

[witesoxfan]

We will find out soon enough. I can see the Sox giving Wilkins a shot the last two months to get more of an idea if he's the guy to replace Dunn when Dunn is gone which is why I can see the Sox releasing Dunn some time in august.

 

Hopefully Dunn is traded at the deadline, even if the Sox have to chip in a few bucks.

 

I think they already know that he's not. He has some history of walking, but his ability to draw walks in AAA has been virtually non-existent, and he's never really been a guy to hit for average. Players like that have a tendency to end up as bench players in the majors or they end up moving between AAA and the majors a lot and eventually finds themselves playing in Asia.

 

His numbers this year remind me a lot of Brett Pill. Wilkins is a bit different because he's left handed, so he's going to have more value due to the platoon difference and the ability to hit more pitchers, but I honestly don't think there's any chance Wilkins is the answer to the DH long term.

[caulfield12]

Jeff Liefer comes to mind as a comp, although he was more touted as a high draft pick.

 

Wilkins has never come close to even being in the Top 10 of one of the weakest farm systems in baseball.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Jeff Liefer comes to mind as a comp, although he was more touted as a high draft pick.

 

Wilkins has never come close to even being in the Top 10 of one of the weakest farm systems in baseball.

Yeah, I think the Wilkins love is fascinating, but reality says he will be 26 in less than 2 months and even with this hot streak, sports a .309 OBP in AAA. Phegley and Jordan Danks are also putting up big numbers and they couldn't do anything at the next level. Anyone actually thinking Wilkins is a really good prospect is thinking with their heart and not their head.

[Balta1701]

Yeah, I think the Wilkins love is fascinating, but reality says he will be 26 in less than 2 months and even with this hot streak, sports a .309 OBP in AAA. Phegley and Jordan Danks are also putting up big numbers and they couldn't do anything at the next level. Anyone actually thinking Wilkins is a really good prospect is thinking with their heart and not their head.

Similarly, anyone applying the logic "because players x and y put up solid numbers at AAA and struggled in the big leagues, player Z who is putting up numbers at AAA will also struggle in the big leagues" is also using poor logic.

 

Andy Wilkins would not need to be a dominant hitter to be useful to the White Sox. If he could put up an .800 OPS as a DH/backup 1b who mainly plays against RHP and sits in exchange for someone like Davidson or a corner OF, while also being extremely cheap for the next 4 years, that player would absolutely fill a huge need for the white sox as currently constructed and it would save them from having to spend $10 million+ on a veteran DH to fill that role.

 

That said, I don't know whether he can put up those kind of numbers even in a mostly platoon role, but there is no reason to ignore a possible payoff if he could.

[southsider2k5]

I can't see the Sox doing this. If Dunn were a locker room cancer or something perhaps they would eat the money to get him out of the locker room, but by all accounts he is a stand-up guy and well liked in the clubhouse. There is the possibility that the Sox may re-sign him at the end of the season as well, so I am not sure they want to sever the relationship in that way.

 

I think Dunn on a short term deal, at a fraction of his current price, makes some sense for the Sox.

[glangon]

Yeah, I think the Wilkins love is fascinating, but reality says he will be 26 in less than 2 months and even with this hot streak, sports a .309 OBP in AAA. Phegley and Jordan Danks are also putting up big numbers and they couldn't do anything at the next level. Anyone actually thinking Wilkins is a really good prospect is thinking with their heart and not their head.

 

We won't know if he is any good at the MLB until he gets exposed to MLB pitching.

 

I think we'll see him this year.

 

If Dunn is traded, we may see him July as the left handed DH / 1B option.

 

If he is not traded, i reckon we'll see him in the September call-ups.

 

He won't get a better chance to show what he can do and the White Sox have nothing to lose, he could be a cheap left handed power bat to spot Abreu on an offday and to man the DH spot. You never know until you give him a shot.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Similarly, anyone applying the logic "because players x and y put up solid numbers at AAA and struggled in the big leagues, player Z who is putting up numbers at AAA will also struggle in the big leagues" is also using poor logic.

 

Andy Wilkins would not need to be a dominant hitter to be useful to the White Sox. If he could put up an .800 OPS as a DH/backup 1b who mainly plays against RHP and sits in exchange for someone like Davidson or a corner OF, while also being extremely cheap for the next 4 years, that player would absolutely fill a huge need for the white sox as currently constructed and it would save them from having to spend $10 million+ on a veteran DH to fill that role.

 

That said, I don't know whether he can put up those kind of numbers even in a mostly platoon role, but there is no reason to ignore a possible payoff if he could.

It's not poor logic. It shows that putting up big numbers in Charlotte is not necessarily a sign you are a good prospect.

 

If Wilkins could put up an .800 OPS sure he would be valuable. But the odds of that happening aren't very high. This isn't a 21 or 22 or 24 year old. He will be 26. If he gets on base at .309 in AAA after a crazy hot streak, I don't see how that translates to anywhere near an .800 OPS at the major league level

[BlackSox13]

I think they already know that he's not. He has some history of walking, but his ability to draw walks in AAA has been virtually non-existent, and he's never really been a guy to hit for average. Players like that have a tendency to end up as bench players in the majors or they end up moving between AAA and the majors a lot and eventually finds themselves playing in Asia.

 

His numbers this year remind me a lot of Brett Pill. Wilkins is a bit different because he's left handed, so he's going to have more value due to the platoon difference and the ability to hit more pitchers, but I honestly don't think there's any chance Wilkins is the answer to the DH long term.

OK, let me out it this way. IMO, there's no future with Adam Dunn and best option the Sox have right now at replacing Dunn's left handed bat is Wilkins so give him a shot and see what he can do August and September. Watching two months of Wilkins will be less painful than the last 3 1/2 years of Dunn.

 

Also ( this isn't directed toward anyone in particular), after wasting millions on Dunn for the last four years , anyone who thinks the Sox would be willing to bring him back needs their head examined. Resigning Dunn would go against what Hahn is building for the future. Dunn has no future with the Sox, period.

Edited July 23, 2014 by StRoostifer

[caulfield12]

Similarly, anyone applying the logic "because players x and y put up solid numbers at AAA and struggled in the big leagues, player Z who is putting up numbers at AAA will also struggle in the big leagues" is also using poor logic. Andy Wilkins would not need to be a dominant hitter to be useful to the White Sox. If he could put up an .800 OPS as a DH/backup 1b who mainly plays against RHP and sits in exchange for someone like Davidson or a corner OF, while also being extremely cheap for the next 4 years, that player would absolutely fill a huge need for the white sox as currently constructed and it would save them from having to spend $10 million+ on a veteran DH to fill that role. That said, I don't know whether he can put up those kind of numbers even in a mostly platoon role, but there is no reason to ignore a possible payoff if he could.

 

 

 

 

Now trying being Brooks Boyer and selling that notion to the fanbase/prospective season ticket holders, unless Wilkins goes off like Josh Fields/Kevin Maas/Shane Spencer/Chris Shelton/Garrett Jones/Tuffy Rhodes for 4-6 weeks.

 

It would be NICE if it happens, but I don't think anyone's holding their breath. Actually, White Sox fans are due someone surprising us offensively, other than Carlos Quentin and Jose Abreu.

 

I could honestly say I'd rather try Wilkins than someone like Kendrys Morales, LaRoche or Adam Lind, for example...that we would end up overpaying because of the dearth of power on the FA market.

 

Would almost rather take a shot at Rasmus because he can also play the OF, but a huge contract for that guy has JD Drew all written over it.