Yanks on Danks

[Eminor3rd]

"John Danks is bad. He's not worth anything, even if the White Sox pick up almost all of the contract."

 

-Dave Cameron on 7/23/14

 

I think that was his response to my comment asking about Danks' maximum trade value

[GreenSox]

They've got depth just not good depth. Knowing we aren't going anywhere this year, if they traded Danks for a couple of prospects and tossed out Wang or Rienzo every 5 days I could live with that until the off-season to fix it.

Sure we can get by this year.

Next year, even if we sign a FA, we're counting on Rodon just to have 5 legit starters (and that's with NOesi at 5) without Danks next year. and we'd still have zero in the minors on the horizon to cover for injuries.

Danks should certainly warrant what Peavy got (which I don't think was a top 100 prospect anymore) which are 2 near ML ready pitchers but with bullpen or 4/5 upside. That would help us.

 

[harfman77]

I'm not worried about who takes Danks' spot this year. I'm worried about who takes his spot in 2015-16*. If the trade doesn't net somebody who will do that, then it doesn't make sense to trade him.

 

* Don't say Rodon. Rodon fills one of the other two holes in the rotation.

 

Rodon.

 

The other two holes will be filled with some combination of Noesi, Johnson, Beck, Danish, free agent or trade acquisition. The problem is who fills the holes at LF, DH, and C? Making a Danks trade should fill at least one of those holes and free up money to fill the other two.

[brian310]

I'm not worried about who takes Danks' spot this year. I'm worried about who takes his spot in 2015-16*. If the trade doesn't net somebody who will do that, then it doesn't make sense to trade him.

 

* Don't say Rodon. Rodon fills one of the other two holes in the rotation.

 

I don't count Rodon as I don't even think he will be up til about May to start. Obviously Sale and Quintana are locks, maybe a Noesi or Rienzo or other minor league deal kind of signing as 5th, one of those guys or Erik Johnson as a place holder for Rodon (depending on Spring Training performances), and I think we also end up signing a RHP. Who it will be? Who knows.

Edited July 28, 2014 by chisoxfan310

[BlackSox13]

Phils's right - there is zero pitching depth. Still, if we get a couple of young pitchers for him and we hit FA, then we'd still be better off.

This along with Danks contract looking more and more like an albatross makes me think the Sox end up with Danks for the rest of the season. Hopefully Danks can pitch well enough to be traded this winter.

 

I'm starting to see more of where Andy the clown is coming from. Shaky peripherals combined with that contract is going to be a difficult trade.

 

Put it this way, if Danks was pitching for another team and the Sox were rumored to be interested I would cry and hope it wasn't true.

[cabiness42]

This along with Danks contract looking more and more like an albatross makes me think the Sox end up with Danks for the rest of the season. Hopefully Danks can pitch well enough to be traded this winter.

 

I'm starting to see more of where Andy the clown is coming from. Shaky peripherals combined with that contract is going to be a difficult trade.

 

Put it this way, if Danks was pitching for another team and the Sox were rumored to be interested I would cry and hope it wasn't true.

 

At this point in his career, Danks is a #4 starter. If he is an upgrade to your pitching staff, then you probably have no business being buyers at the deadline. That said, if somebody is delusional enough to think that Danks will help them, the Sox should try to extract a nice price, because he can still be useful to the Sox as a #4 starter going forward.

[GreenSox]

At this point in his career, Danks is a #4 starter. If he is an upgrade to your pitching staff, then you probably have no business being buyers at the deadline. That said, if somebody is delusional enough to think that Danks will help them, the Sox should try to extract a nice price, because he can still be useful to the Sox as a #4 starter going forward.

What if you upgrade with him as a #5? It's easy to be a contender these days with a horrible #5 or even really bad #4.

Peavy moved for useful players; so can Danks.

[BlackSox13]

At this point in his career, Danks is a #4 starter. If he is an upgrade to your pitching staff, then you probably have no business being buyers at the deadline. That said, if somebody is delusional enough to think that Danks will help them, the Sox should try to extract a nice price, because he can still be useful to the Sox as a #4 starter going forward.

I see Danks more of a #5 and to be honest, I see Noesi having more value than Danks because Noesi doesn't come with a contract through 2016. I agree its likely Danks has more value in the eyes of the White Sox and that's why, IMO, the Sox should not expect much of a return. No team is going to pay extra for a guy simply because the Sox value him more. If we were talking about Sale or Q then the Sox are in a position to say " over pay because of how highly we value him" but were talking about Danks which is completely different.

 

The irony that I see in all this is fans want to trade Danks for different reasons but the common one seems to be his peripherals, and yet still think Danks can bring back a high return. Makes no sense to me.

 

I really hope I'm wrong in all this but my gut tells me the return for Danks would be minimal at best. Again, good grief I hope I'm dead wrong.

[BlackSox13]

What if you upgrade with him as a #5? It's easy to be a contender these days with a horrible #5 or even really bad #4.

Peavy moved for useful players; so can Danks.

Peavy didn't come with 2+ years of contract remaining and 30M+ owed which SF said was why they traded for Peavy. SF wasn't looking for a long commitment which made Peavy more valuable in the eyes of SF.

[Chisoxfn]

I'm not against trading Danks, but for me the price needs to be hefty. They have shed enough salary that they don't have an urgent need to dump his, and he can be a #4 starter on a contending team in 15-16. Need at least a Top 50-75 prospect for him.

Look at his WHIP and ERA. Nothing about that is getting you some elite prospect.

[NorthSideSox72]

Danks is, this year, a #4 starter. But people seem to be forgetting that he was really more of a #3 before the injury, and this is his recovery year. No one should have expected he'd be 100% his usual self this season. He's still building up strength.

 

So really what you are trading is a guy who is a #4 now, but very likely could be a #3 in the remaining two years of his contract. And at that level, his salary is more or less in line with value.

 

Keeping that in mind, if the Sox are willing to trade him and maybe send some money (say $5M a year for each remaining, so $10M total), then you are giving another team significant differential value. Will that get you an elite prospect? No, but it could very likely give you a couple or three prospects who might turn into something. The team who gets Danks gets a cost-controlled starter for 2.5 seasons who, if healthy next year gives you mid-rotation quality.

 

There's value there, but the Sox are probably considering whether it is better to wait and trade him this offseason or even next year at the deadline, when he's likely to be performing better.

 

[Chisoxfn]

Danks is, this year, a #4 starter. But people seem to be forgetting that he was really more of a #3 before the injury, and this is his recovery year. No one should have expected he'd be 100% his usual self this season. He's still building up strength.

 

So really what you are trading is a guy who is a #4 now, but very likely could be a #3 in the remaining two years of his contract. And at that level, his salary is more or less in line with value.

 

Keeping that in mind, if the Sox are willing to trade him and maybe send some money (say $5M a year for each remaining, so $10M total), then you are giving another team significant differential value. Will that get you an elite prospect? No, but it could very likely give you a couple or three prospects who might turn into something. The team who gets Danks gets a cost-controlled starter for 2.5 seasons who, if healthy next year gives you mid-rotation quality.

 

There's value there, but the Sox are probably considering whether it is better to wait and trade him this offseason or even next year at the deadline, when he's likely to be performing better.

Technically, wasn't last year his recovery year. This is his 2nd full season after the injury. I don't know that I would say that he's likely to be performing better. Hard to say that. Guys coming back from shoulder injuries tend to struggle. What Danks has done has been an accomplishment in and of itself.

[southsider2k5]

Also one thing to consider, Danks is one of the pitchers on the market who won't be hurt by going to the new Yankee stadium.

[Feeky Magee]

Danks is, this year, a #4 starter. But people seem to be forgetting that he was really more of a #3 before the injury, and this is his recovery year. No one should have expected he'd be 100% his usual self this season. He's still building up strength.

 

So really what you are trading is a guy who is a #4 now, but very likely could be a #3 in the remaining two years of his contract. And at that level, his salary is more or less in line with value.

 

Keeping that in mind, if the Sox are willing to trade him and maybe send some money (say $5M a year for each remaining, so $10M total), then you are giving another team significant differential value. Will that get you an elite prospect? No, but it could very likely give you a couple or three prospects who might turn into something. The team who gets Danks gets a cost-controlled starter for 2.5 seasons who, if healthy next year gives you mid-rotation quality.

 

There's value there, but the Sox are probably considering whether it is better to wait and trade him this offseason or even next year at the deadline, when he's likely to be performing better.

Instead of all this talk about #4 and #3, how about that he ranks 85th of 92 qualified starters in FIP, 86th of 92 in xFIP, and 85th of 92 in SIERA. Last year was his recovery year. This year was supposed to be his bounceback year. Meanwhile, his velocity is showing no signs of coming back, his strikeouts are almost the same as last year and his walk rate has nearly doubled. All across the board his numbers are down on last year, barring giving up less homers, and last year's homer number was flukily high anyway.

[witesoxfan]

Instead of all this talk about #4 and #3, how about that he ranks 85th of 92 qualified starters in FIP, 86th of 92 in xFIP, and 85th of 92 in SIERA. Last year was his recovery year. This year was supposed to be his bounceback year. Meanwhile, his velocity is showing no signs of coming back, his strikeouts are almost the same as last year and his walk rate has nearly doubled. All across the board his numbers are down on last year, barring giving up less homers, and last year's homer number was flukily high anyway.

 

I think Danks is a better pitcher than his peripheral stats indicate, but agree that he's a fairly average to slightly below average pitcher. I think there's a market for him, but the Sox won't get a lot if they move him.

 

My questions arise in why the Yankees would be interested in him. Maybe they feel he'll play well in their park, but his peripherals are poor and the Yanks have been acquiring guys based on peripherals a lot more this year.

[southsider2k5]

Instead of all this talk about #4 and #3, how about that he ranks 85th of 92 qualified starters in FIP, 86th of 92 in xFIP, and 85th of 92 in SIERA. Last year was his recovery year. This year was supposed to be his bounceback year. Meanwhile, his velocity is showing no signs of coming back, his strikeouts are almost the same as last year and his walk rate has nearly doubled. All across the board his numbers are down on last year, barring giving up less homers, and last year's homer number was flukily high anyway.

 

Danks is a much better "effectively wild" type pitcher. He doesn't have the type of stuff to pepper the zone. You can see it in the extreme reduction in his homer rate (down 33%), and both his H/9-BAA dropping this year. His K rate is also up.

[Eminor3rd]

I think Danks is a better pitcher than his peripheral stats indicate, but agree that he's a fairly average to slightly below average pitcher. I think there's a market for him, but the Sox won't get a lot if they move him.

 

My questions arise in why the Yankees would be interested in him. Maybe they feel he'll play well in their park, but his peripherals are poor and the Yanks have been acquiring guys based on peripherals a lot more this year.

 

I'm guessing it's because they have already decided they are bargain-bin shopping and won't give up a real prospect, and everyone else is asking for a real prospect. Danks remains the best possible option for taking cash instead of giving up talent.

 

Either way, we're not getting anything nice for him, because by eating most of his contract, we'd be getting him to what he SHOULD be paid based on his performance. When teams get talent back by taking money, it's because they're able to create surplus value with the contract of the player being moved. There's no surplus value available in the Danks situation. There are a lot of dudes making league minimum that can put up a 4.50 ERA.

[Feeky Magee]

Danks is a much better "effectively wild" type pitcher. He doesn't have the type of stuff to pepper the zone. You can see it in the extreme reduction in his homer rate (down 33%), and both his H/9-BAA dropping this year. His K rate is also up.

His K rate is slightly up from 15.3% to 16.1%. His walk rate is way up from 4.6% to 8%. His homer rate is down mainly because last year's was a flukily high number. His hit rate is slightly down from 9.82 H/9 to 9.34 H/9, primarily because he's walking a lot more guys.

[witesoxfan]

I'm guessing it's because they have already decided they are bargain-bin shopping and won't give up a real prospect, and everyone else is asking for a real prospect. Danks remains the best possible option for taking cash instead of giving up talent.

 

Either way, we're not getting anything nice for him, because by eating most of his contract, we'd be getting him to what he SHOULD be paid based on his performance. When teams get talent back by taking money, it's because they're able to create surplus value with the contract of the player being moved. There's no surplus value available in the Danks situation. There are a lot of dudes making league minimum that can put up a 4.50 ERA.

 

Right. I think ideally you'd get someone like Zoilo Almonte or Francisco Cervelli and that would be it.

[greg775]

Would a trade of Danks for prospects be a sign the team does not plan on winning again next year? I'd say yes that's what it means. You'd be totally weakening an already pathetic staff.

[BlackSox13]

Would a trade of Danks for prospects be a sign the team does not plan on winning again next year? I'd say yes that's what it means. You'd be totally weakening an already pathetic staff.

Not at all dude. The Sox have a lot of room on the payroll budget and that doesn't include Dunn's salary coming off the books sometime between now and seasons end. It would be unfair to speculate on 2015 without seeing what the off season brings first.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Would a trade of Danks for prospects be a sign the team does not plan on winning again next year? I'd say yes that's what it means. You'd be totally weakening an already pathetic staff.

 

Not true at all. It means they are trading Danks for what they perceive as value. Sox can sign someone to match Danks' numbers for a lot cheaper.

[Feeky Magee]

Would a trade of Danks for prospects be a sign the team does not plan on winning again next year? I'd say yes that's what it means. You'd be totally weakening an already pathetic staff.

If they got prospects for him in addition to salary relief, we're laughing. I think even salary relief would be a sign that the Sox think they can better spend that $14.2m per year in free agency/international free agency/extensions.

[witesoxfan]

Would a trade of Danks for prospects be a sign the team does not plan on winning again next year? I'd say yes that's what it means. You'd be totally weakening an already pathetic staff.

 

The White Sox team ERA is 4.13 and their team FIP is 4.09. John Danks is at 4.40 and 4.63.

 

Thus, John Danks is actually making the White Sox "pathetic" pitching staff even more "pathetic."

 

Seriously greg, think before you speak. Maybe do some research. I understand that you may have some emotional attachment to John Danks, but he's not that good of a pitcher anymore. If the Sox get prospects, meaning the plural form of the word prospect, then they've already won.

[flavum]

Well, Danks is supposed to be taking the mound in Detroit in about 72 hours. We'll see what happens.

 

I say nothing happens, but maybe in August.