Yanks on Danks

[southsider2k5]

But what people don't understand is that in a trade, you're asking a team to give you talent for the surplus value of the contract. John Danks has no surplus value at all at $14m per year. Anyone could just sign a market rate asset in the offseason for that. So if you're considering paying Danks the next couple years at that rate, you'd at best take those years for free, because that's the worst case scenario for what it would cost to acquire someone like him in free agency. You don't give up significant talent just for the right to pay a guy every penny he's worth, unless he's some one-of-a-kind talent that isn't available on the open market.

 

Deadline trades have the extra added luster of having a limited amount of teams selling, and an added extra pressure for teams trying to add pieces to "go for it". The Yankees are up a creek because of their injury problems, which puts more weight on needing another pitcher, no matter what.

[Eminor3rd]

Agreed, but you're also trying to exploit their desire to win now. There was risk taken when that contract was signed, but you did it because you want to avoid being vulnerable in the trade market or to future market conditions.

 

If they come a knockin', you want to try and exploit their immediate need under the circumstances.

 

Absolutely, but there are better options out there if you're going to give up decent prospects. All the Astros guys, all the Rockies guys, and even John Lackey are better short term options if you're willing to pay the talent to upgrade. If you balk at those prices, you'd settle for Danks' contract, but it's only worth settling for if you pay way less for it than you'd have to pay to get the others.

[iamshack]

Absolutely, but there are better options out there if you're going to give up decent prospects. All the Astros guys, all the Rockies guys, and even John Lackey are better short term options if you're willing to pay the talent to upgrade. If you balk at those prices, you'd settle for Danks' contract, but it's only worth settling for if you pay way less for it than you'd have to pay to get the others.

Yeah, Hahn's job is to figure out where the sweetspot lies.

 

As for Lackey, he'll be a tough get I think...the Red Sox hold an option on him next year for the league minimum.

[IlliniKrush]

Actually, Danks is cost controlled for long term the other two are two month rentals, so that swings more value to Danks. Danks contract is not really that far out of line with his production.

What? That's a bad contract for the pitcher he is at this point. Cost-controlled doesn't mean anything when the cost is bad. Why do you think it's been so hard to trade Dunn the past few years? But he's cost-controlled!

 

All things being equal, you're taking Peavy for an expiring contract before you're trading for Danks.

 

If there's so much value to Danks, why are the Sox trying to move him? Why aren't the Yankees giving up the farm for him if it's such a fair trade and he's "cost-controlled?" The Sox are trying to get out from a bad contract, that's all this trade is about.

 

His contract is WAY out of line with his production. A guy that was worth .9 WAR this year is worth 14 mil? Plus for the next two years? No.

 

Take a look at this list. Everyone ahead of him is making 14 mil+? That's the only way that it would be "not really that far out of line with his production."

 

He's 7th from last.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...r=&players=

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Yeah, Hahn's job is to figure out where the sweetspot lies.

 

As for Lackey, he'll be a tough get I think...the Red Sox hold an option on him next year for the league minimum.

 

 

Reports on twitter though that Lackey will definitely be moved because he asked to be traded. Only making $500,000 next year.

[iamshack]

What? That's a bad contract for the pitcher he is at this point. Cost-controlled doesn't mean anything when the cost is bad. Why do you think it's been so hard to trade Dunn the past few years? But he's cost-controlled!

 

All things being equal, you're taking Peavy for an expiring contract before you're trading for Danks.

 

If there's so much value to Danks, why are the Sox trying to move him? Why aren't the Yankees giving up the farm for him if it's such a fair trade and he's "cost-controlled?" The Sox are trying to get out from a bad contract, that's all this trade is about.

 

His contract is WAY out of line with his production. A guy that was worth .9 WAR this year is worth 14 mil? Plus for the next two years? No.

 

Take a look at this list. Everyone ahead of him is making 14 mil+? That's the only way that it would be "not really that far out of line with his production."

 

He's 7th from last.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...r=&players=

Yeah, but how many of those guys are available today? I don't think anyone is suggesting anyone is going to "give up the farm" for Danks.

 

I think what some have said is that Danks has some value. That they wouldn't just extricate themselves from the contract for nothing if they could today.

 

I'm not sure where I stand, honestly...what if we win the next two games? We'd be 5 back of the Tigers with 50 games remaining.

Edited July 30, 2014 by iamshack

[iamshack]

Reports on twitter though that Lackey will definitely be moved because he asked to be traded. Only making $500,000 next year.

Right...I guess I meant the Red Sox will demand some pretty solid pieces.

[harfman77]

What? That's a bad contract for the pitcher he is at this point. Cost-controlled doesn't mean anything when the cost is bad. Why do you think it's been so hard to trade Dunn the past few years? But he's cost-controlled!

 

All things being equal, you're taking Peavy for an expiring contract before you're trading for Danks.

 

If there's so much value to Danks, why are the Sox trying to move him? Why aren't the Yankees giving up the farm for him if it's such a fair trade and he's "cost-controlled?" The Sox are trying to get out from a bad contract, that's all this trade is about.

 

His contract is WAY out of line with his production. A guy that was worth .9 WAR this year is worth 14 mil? Plus for the next two years? No.

 

Take a look at this list. Everyone ahead of him is making 14 mil+? That's the only way that it would be "not really that far out of line with his production."

 

He's 7th from last.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...r=&players=

 

When was it suggested that the Yankees should give up the farm? The point is that Danks does have value and the Sox have no need to move him without getting a deal that is in their favor. Tim Lincecum has been worse than Danks and got a $20M AAV contract. AJ Burnett has been similar and got a $16M AAV contact. Edwin Jackson has been worse and got the same money Danks did. That would mean that he is paid at nearly his market value. If the Sox just wanted out from a bad contract he would have been gone already, they want a deal that makes sense for the organization.

 

Your list only contains about half of the AL pitchers, so if you are arguing he is a middle of the road pitcher, I agree. But middle of the road pitchers are getting contracts now that are in line with what Danks is making.

[harfman77]

Reports on twitter though that Lackey will definitely be moved because he asked to be traded. Only making $500,000 next year.

 

I am not sure the Red Sox will get anyone to give up much of significant value given the contract situation. There have been strong rumblings in the Boston media that Lackey will not pitch under his current contract next season, so without a new deal in place, there is a lot of risk in acquiring him, and probably a big off-season headache.

[Leonard Zelig]

If John Danks gets traded does Jordan automatically get included in the deal?

[chitownsportsfan]

If John Danks gets traded does Jordan automatically get included in the deal?

 

Yes but only if they are never on the same 25 man roster.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Let's say it is August, Danks is still here, Hahn puts him on waivers, Yanks claim him. Anyone believe we wouldn't release Danks' contract to the Yankees in that scenario?

 

I thinking that if push comers to shove, if the Yanks will take on the rest of the deal, given that we know Danks' velocity is not coming back, and given the presence of Rodon in the minors, I think the Sox will dump him for a Rios type package.

 

Maybe the hangup is that the Yanks are offering Cervelli and the Sox want Murphy.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Also I tyhink that Sherman might be the Yanks publicity toy ala Cowley here or something like that. Heyman says the window is open so I would believe that. Sherman probably is being used to put pressure on the Sox.

 

It sounds like Danks is probably going though... should be tomorrow morning at the latest. If the Yanks really want him I can' see the Sox hanging onto the contract now. Thety dumped Alex who had more value than Danks "for Abreu money" ie a bunch of bulls***, so they'll dump Danks ifthye have to. JMO.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Supposedly marlins are in on Danks.

[RockRaines]

Let's say it is August, Danks is still here, Hahn puts him on waivers, Yanks claim him. Anyone believe we wouldn't release Danks' contract to the Yankees in that scenario?

 

I thinking that if push comers to shove, if the Yanks will take on the rest of the deal, given that we know Danks' velocity is not coming back, and given the presence of Rodon in the minors, I think the Sox will dump him for a Rios type package.

 

Maybe the hangup is that the Yanks are offering Cervelli and the Sox want Murphy.

I agree with pretty much all of this. I love Danks but I am not sure there is a spot in this rotation for him moving forward. Our best bet is the team that doesnt care about money acquires him and gives us something back.

[flavum]

Danks takes the mound in 18 hours...or does he?!!

[RockRaines]

Danks takes the mound in 18 hours...or does he?!!

I'd say no, but I also dont think they are prepared to unload him for no financial or talent benefit at this time.

[flavum]

I'm guessing Rienzo stays out of this one tonight, just in case.

[IlliniKrush]

Yeah, but how many of those guys are available today? I don't think anyone is suggesting anyone is going to "give up the farm" for Danks.

 

I think what some have said is that Danks has some value. That they wouldn't just extricate themselves from the contract for nothing if they could today.

 

I'm not sure where I stand, honestly...what if we win the next two games? We'd be 5 back of the Tigers with 50 games remaining.

He has little value, especially with that contract. The numbers spell that out. Getting out of that contract would be great at this point. IMO, he's not getting any better, he's only going to get worse than this. That makes that contract in each passing year even worse than it is this year.

 

We already missed the window on Beckham.

 

And LOL at actually thinking they are winning the division. You need to be setting up for 2015 and 2016/2017. Freeing up some money will help that a lot.

 

When was it suggested that the Yankees should give up the farm? The point is that Danks does have value and the Sox have no need to move him without getting a deal that is in their favor. Tim Lincecum has been worse than Danks and got a $20M AAV contract. AJ Burnett has been similar and got a $16M AAV contact. Edwin Jackson has been worse and got the same money Danks did. That would mean that he is paid at nearly his market value. If the Sox just wanted out from a bad contract he would have been gone already, they want a deal that makes sense for the organization.

 

Your list only contains about half of the AL pitchers, so if you are arguing he is a middle of the road pitcher, I agree. But middle of the road pitchers are getting contracts now that are in line with what Danks is making.

Getting out of that contract and getting an OK prospect IS a deal in their favor, that's the point. They do want out from the bad contract, which is the reason he's on the block. If they thought he was so valuable, and cost-controlled, they'd keep him around the next 2.5 years. This is not what the Sox expected/hoped for when signing him to this huge contract.

[ILMOU]

Supposedly marlins are in on Danks.

I'll take LHP Nicolino, RHP German and C Austin Barnes. I'm totally sure they'll go for that.

[LDF]

U-God @SBN_UGod · 2m

The Yankees are potentially interested in Viciedo AND Danks? What's your game, Cashman?

 

for the value of both contracts, it is cheaper to trade with the sox. even if the sox are asking decent

prospects in rtn. throw in some salary help it makes the deal better.

 

danks is coming back to pitching good.

dv is what 25 yr old and still has power potential.

 

how many prospect are still in the minors at 25 and is still considered a good prospect?

[LDF]

No you are not. You are asking for the value of the player. Any surplus value in the contract drives

up the expected value of the player. There are no market rate assets available at the trade deadline, that

is why the Sox have leverage now to deal Danks. You do give up value to get a guy that is paid what he is worth,

that is the point of making a trade, to plug a piece of value into your team to try and win baseball games.

There is also value in having cost certainty and a certain number of holes filled going into free agency.

Surplus value is a nice thing to have in a trade, but that is not what teams are trading for, they are trading

for baseball players to help them make the playoffs.

 

yes there is and it is a common factor you are not mentioning. length of the contract.

[Rowand44]

And LOL at actually thinking they are winning the division. You need to be setting up for 2015 and 2016/2017. Freeing up some money will help that a lot.

Will it? We should have plenty of money to spend in the offseason, we don't have plenty of pitching to give up. I don't see it making much sense to just dump him to clear more salary. He's more valuable to us than other teams at the moment and I'd just rather hang onto him instead of giving him away.

Edited July 30, 2014 by Rowand44

[Soxfest]

 

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports the Yankees aren't interested in the $28.5 million John Danks will make in the 2015 and 2016 seasons.

 

Danks will make $14.5 million in each of the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and the Yankees aren't wild about taking on that kind of salary. It appears the White Sox would need to be willing to eat some of that salary, and it's unclear whether they'd be willing to do that at this point. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman has reported the Yankees' continued interest in the left-hander in recent days.

 

 

Source: Mark Feinsand on Twitter

[LDF]

Reports on twitter though that Lackey will definitely be moved because he asked to be traded. Only making $500,000 next year.

 

but there is something strange about his contract that has people talking about. what I do not not.

 

did he not give a break to sign or something. to remain with the team?