Yanks on Danks

[Soxfest]

If John Danks gets traded does Jordan automatically get included in the deal?

Jordan's days on the Sox 40 man roster are numbered either way.

[LDF]

Let's say it is August, Danks is still here, Hahn puts him on waivers, Yanks claim him. Anyone believe we wouldn't release Danks' contract to the Yankees in that scenario?

 

I thinking that if push comers to shove, if the Yanks will take on the rest of the deal, given that we know Danks' velocity is not coming back, and given the presence of Rodon in the minors, I think the Sox will dump him for a Rios type package.

 

Maybe the hangup is that the Yanks are offering Cervelli and the Sox want Murphy.

 

first I think the sox will keep Danks if as you said push come to shove.

 

second and this is my opinion, trading with the sox is trading with KW and his, let say not getting

the right value of the trade. now all the GM's have to deal with Hahn who may be asking for value. I don't

know, I am just wondering.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports the Yankees aren't interested in the $28.5 million John Danks will make in the 2015 and 2016 seasons.

 

Danks will make $14.5 million in each of the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and the Yankees aren't wild about taking on that kind of salary. It appears the White Sox would need to be willing to eat some of that salary, and it's unclear whether they'd be willing to do that at this point. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman has reported the Yankees' continued interest in the left-hander in recent days.

 

 

Source: Mark Feinsand on Twitter

Meaning this is going to be a pure salary dump if/when it goes down.

 

Yanks know Sox have little leverage here & are applying the pressure. I don't think we're going to be eating much if any $$$ no matter what, but will we cave & flat out dump him if we have to in order for the deal to go through? IMO we will.

 

There's too much smoke here, to the point where I think if we don't trade Danks to the Yanks we won't make a trade at all. Sox porbably know NY has little to give in the way of assets & are hopeful they will cave & give something back, but the Sox need to watch it, because the Yanks have players like McHugh and so on as fallback options in theory, there are always those sorts of options out there, whereas who else but the Yankees would be willing to take on Danks' deal right now?

 

Also this move is as much about 2016 than anything else. No matter what our FO is thinking Rodon is a full season LHSP in 2016 & he's probably at least a partial SP next year too. Dumping Danks gives us flexibility now and saves us a potential headache later. Also Noesi could turn out too and be yet another in a long list of names picked up cheap/off the scrap heap by the Sox and turned into something valuable. There's no reason to assume we couldn't find someone who would replace what would be Danks' projected 2015-16 production during or after this season.

 

I think if you can dump Danks to the Yanks and pick up an arm like Maurer out of Seattle or elsewhere - someone with real upside - the Sox could come out of this thing smelling like roses.

[LDF]

Meaning this is going to be a pure salary dump if/when it goes down.

 

Yanks know Sox have little leverage here & are applying the pressure. I don't think we're going to be eating much if any $$$ no matter what, but will we cave & flat out dump him if we have to in order for the deal to go through? IMO we will.

 

There's too much smoke here, to the point where I think if we don't trade Danks to the Yanks we won't make a trade at all. Sox porbably know NY has little to give in the way of assets & are hopeful they will cave & give something back, but the Sox need to watch it, because the Yanks have players like McHugh and so on as fallback options in theory, there are always those sorts of options out there, whereas who else but the Yankees would be willing to take on Danks' deal right now?

 

Also this move is as much about 2016 than anything else. No matter what our FO is thinking Rodon is a full season LHSP in 2016 & he's probably at least a partial SP next year too. Dumping Danks gives us flexibility now and saves us a potential headache later. Also Noesi could turn out too and be yet another in a long list of names picked up cheap/off the scrap heap by the Sox and turned into something valuable. There's no reason to assume we couldn't find someone who would replace what would be Danks' projected 2015-16 production during or after this season.

 

I think if you can dump Danks to the Yanks and pick up an arm like Maurer out of Seattle or elsewhere - someone with real upside - the Sox could come out of this thing smelling like roses.

 

if dumping is the choice, I would rather eat his contract and keep him.

 

then again maybe the yanks are using the tweet to have the sox include salary relief. wow, times have change,

yanks are getting cost conscience.

[The Ultimate Champion]

first I think the sox will keep Danks if as you said push come to shove.

 

second and this is my opinion, trading with the sox is trading with KW and his, let say not getting

the right value of the trade. now all the GM's have to deal with Hahn who may be asking for value. I don't

know, I am just wondering.

If we flat out dump the guy right now we're probably looking at $32 or $33M plus of salary relief right off the bat and doing so at the expense of our 3rd best pitcher. Also from things the Sox hvae saidd plus their actions in trading Hector Santiago, we're probably not having 4 lefties in our rotation anytime soon & I'm not sure (especially with BorASS as his agent) that the Sox will want to put Rodon in the pen for a full season plus like Sale. In short, there's no guarantee you will be able to get out of Danks' contract at a later date, and not being able to do so could cause real porblems during a point we want to contend, so getting this done now while the chance is there probably makes a lot of sense. It's the safe bet, if the option does exist.

[LDF]

If we flat out dump the guy right now we're probably looking at $32 or $33M plus of salary relief right off the bat and doing so at the expense of our 3rd best pitcher. Also from things the Sox hvae saidd plus their actions in trading Hector Santiago, we're probably not having 4 lefties in our rotation anytime soon & I'm not sure (especially with BorASS as his agent) that the Sox will want to put Rodon in the pen for a full season plus like Sale. In short, there's no guarantee you will be able to get out of Danks' contract at a later date, and not being able to do so could cause real porblems during a point we want to contend, so getting this done now while the chance is there probably makes a lot of sense. It's the safe bet, if the option does exist.

 

 

 

 

[LDF]

 

an interesting thought, after reading the mlb trade rumors site, KC is looking for pitchers as well

as players. if the yanks deal goes sour, why not KC and salary (for spite) for several prospect.

[IlliniKrush]

Will it? We should have plenty of money to spend in the offseason, we don't have plenty of pitching to give up. I don't see it making much sense to just dump him to clear more salary. He's more valuable to us than other teams at the moment and I'd just rather hang onto him instead of giving him away.

Yes, it will. How can it hurt? Remember how we had a ton of money to sign that big 1B this winter? That's what freeing up money does for you, not only this off season, but next. There's no limit to "we should have plenty of money."

 

I guess it depends how much you value Danks, and I don't value him much (and the numbers support that) at 14 mil. And I don't think he's going to get any better (his walk rate going way up this year is alarming, and he's throwing like 86mph, and his FIP is higher). Plus he's soon to be your 4th best lefty starter behind Rodon either next year or at the latest the year after. I'd much rather roll that money into more money to get a big-time starter, catcher, 2b, LF, etc. over the next 2 years. You're also going to need money to extend guys.

[Chicago White Sox]

Yes, it will. How can it hurt? Remember how we had a ton of money to sign that big 1B this winter? That's what freeing up money does for you, not only this off season, but next. There's no limit to "we should have plenty of money."

 

I guess it depends how much you value Danks, and I don't value him much (and the numbers support that) at 14 mil. And I don't think he's going to get any better (his walk rate going way up this year is alarming, and he's throwing like 86mph, and his FIP is higher). Plus he's soon to be your 4th best lefty starter behind Rodon either next year or at the latest the year after. I'd much rather roll that money into more money to get a big-time starter, catcher, 2b, LF, etc. over the next 2 years. You're also going to need money to extend guys.

We have $46M in payroll commitments for next year with Danks. I see no reason why we can't afford a $120M payroll in 2015 if we so choose. That's $74M in available space with only a couple of arbitration eligible players. That's more than enough money to fill all the needs you listed above (2B will be filled internally). Cash flow will not be our problem this coming offseason, finding a way to spend it all efficiently will be, which makes moving Danks less valuable to us.

 

Furthermore, it's not like we have a ton of rotational depth. We're currently starting one guy who was released earlier this year and another guy who made his major league debut at 29 years of age. We basically have nothing behind them at AAA (Beck has proven nothing yet IMO), so things could get ugly until Rodon is ready. I'm not a Danks supporter by any means, but him eating 200 innings with a decent percentage of quality starts has more value to us than his WAR will indicate. I have no problem trading Danks, but salary relief alone won't make us better for 2015. We need something back for him, even if it's a fairly insignificant piece, or else keep him as an over-priced #4 starter for another year. Entering the offseason with three holes in our rotation is not ideal by any means.

[Eminor3rd]

No you are not. You are asking for the value of the player. Any surplus value in the contract drives up the expected value of the player. There are no market rate assets available at the trade deadline, that is why the Sox have leverage now to deal Danks. You do give up value to get a guy that is paid what he is worth, that is the point of making a trade, to plug a piece of value into your team to try and win baseball games. There is also value in having cost certainty and a certain number of holes filled going into free agency. Surplus value is a nice thing to have in a trade, but that is not what teams are trading for, they are trading for baseball players to help them make the playoffs.

 

The Yankees want Danks because they need a pitcher, but they will be willing to give up talent based on the market value of the asset. The price the player demands is determined by surplus value. Whether they like it or not, the Yankees are not just buying Danks this year, they're buying him the next two and half years.

 

The Sox have no leverage because no one else wants Danks at a higher rate. If the Sox don't cave, the Yanks just get a different mediocre pitcher that doesn't comes with $38m attached. This is EXACTLY why prospects are valued so highly -- the massive potential for surplus value over the life of their pre-free agency contracts. If teams acted like you're describing, they'd give up any minor leaguer for any major leaguer that could contribute.

[Jake]

The absolute maximum I could imagine us giving up money-wise is $5M per future season owed to Danks...and that would be an unprecedented amount for us. Of course, we've very rarely had payroll commitments so far underneath our ability before

[Chicago White Sox]

The Yankees want Danks because they need a pitcher, but they will be willing to give up talent based on the market value of the asset. The price the player demands is determined by surplus value. Whether they like it or not, the Yankees are not just buying Danks this year, they're buying him the next two and half years.

 

The Sox have no leverage because no one else wants Danks at a higher rate. If the Sox don't cave, the Yanks just get a different mediocre pitcher that doesn't comes with $38m attached. This is EXACTLY why prospects are valued so highly -- the massive potential for surplus value over the life of their pre-free agency contracts. If teams acted like you're describing, they'd give up any minor leaguer for any major leaguer that could contribute.

Teams aren't trying to acquire surplus value at the deadline, they're trying to acquire production. Obviously financial elements come into play, but the market price for starting pitching goes up significantly at the deadline, both due to a limited supply of starters being available and the marginal value of each win increasing. The Yankees aren't going to wait until the offseason to fill a need they have now. If Danks is the best guy available that doesn't cost any top prospects, my guess is that they'll be willing to give us a minor piece and take on most of his salary. That would obviously be an overpay in the offseason, but it's the price of doing business at the end of July. The Sox have some leverage here because they don't have to move Danks and Yankees just may be desperate for a starting pitcher.

[Eminor3rd]

Teams aren't trying to acquire surplus value at the deadline, they're trying to acquire production. Obviously financial elements come into play, but the market price for starting pitching goes up significantly at the deadline, both due to a limited supply of starters being available and the marginal value of each win increasing. The Yankees aren't going to wait until the offseason to fill a need they have now. If Danks is the best guy available that doesn't cost any top prospects, my guess is that they'll be willing to give us a minor piece and take on most of his salary. That would obviously be an overpay in the offseason, but it's the price of doing business at the end of July. The Sox have some leverage here because they don't have to move Danks and Yankees just may be desperate for a starting pitcher.

 

We still seem to disagree but the bolded is something I agree with completely.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'm not sure we'll have to eat anything on this.

 

Even the NY people aren't acting as though Danks is a massive overpayment. Sherman called Danks a mid-tier arm & the other stuff is about the Yanks not loving the idea of Danks contract. It could simply be that NY is telling us through the media "Hey look, we'll take this guy but there's no way in hell we're giving you a player, you ought to be thankful we're willing to take on the deal." That sort of thing. It hasn't (at least that I've seen) come out that NY views Danks as a #5 and his salary obligations as unmanageable and a total barrier to any deal as it stands.

 

Heyman is talking about the player(s) coming back as a hangup. Okay, we're not getting s***, oh well. But it's also possible that the Sox FO might view this deadline as a win just by opening up more future flexibility going into the organizational meetings & offseason.

 

Also we really have no leverage at all IMO. The only way we have leverage is if we know there is another team we can dump Danks off on if we want to. I don't think we can assume there is. The only other major suitor it appears is the Marlins and that pretty much has to be a deal where we eat a significant amount of money doesn't it? Maybe the Sox have the Dodgers on the backburner or something, and maybe they would take his deal for nothing or take on a smaller bad deal. But I don't see where we'd hvae any real leverage. We know Danks is what he is at this point physically and really all we have in our favor is the *chance* that Danks continues to evolve/mature as a pitcher and can find sustained success with what he has. But whatever the odds are on that it's certainly not a given, however his salary obligations are a given, and the difference in return between a better looking John Danks with less $$$ owed a year from now and salary relief right now probably is not worth the risk. What happens if we pass up a chance to dump the contract now and then find ourselves a year from now wondering WTF to do when he's getting shelled with an ERA above 5.50 and 3 other lefties are outperforming him every time out?

[DirtySox]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 14s

As I just reported on @FOXSports1, Marlins and White Sox have discussed a possible John Danks trade. #MLBWhipAround

[The Ultimate Champion]

We still seem to disagree but the bolded is something I agree with completely.

I think this is probably their stance.

 

They know Danks is a vet (good) and a lefty (good) and cheap to acquire in talent (good) and he's also pitched on bigger stages at least a few times. The Yankees probably want someone they can acquire who won't totally s*** the bed on them, and Danks fits that description. The fact that he's a gamer who pitches in the AL in a hitters park probably eases their nerves a little. But they're not giving us s*** it appears, but hey, that's porbably fine.

 

I definitely would not be prepared to eat $5M per though. No way. Eating $2M per is enough as it is. Not sure we'd need to do more than that anyway, maybe all we need to do is put a smile on our faces & accept our Travis Hinton/Michael Dubee package and be happy about it.

[Jose Abreu]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 14s

As I just reported on @FOXSports1, Marlins and White Sox have discussed a possible John Danks trade. #MLBWhipAround

hm.

[nickofypres]

hm.

 

I wonder what a realistic return from MIA could be.

[flavum]

Morosi is one of the guys I don't trust.

[DirtySox]

I wonder what a realistic return from MIA could be.

 

Considering the Marlins don't spend money, I would hazard a guess that the Sox would be picking up money and getting a better return. That is if this rumor isn't bulls***.

[The Ultimate Champion]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensa.../miami-marlins/

 

Salty & Jones are the only players with halfway decent contracts in terms of pay. Can't see us eating a massive amount of salary. Taking back a deal is one thing but there's really nothing we'd take back or that they'd send us.

[BlackSox13]

Why do I have a very difficult time believing the Marlins are interested in Danks. I doubt the Sox would pick up enough money for the Marlins to bite. I hope I'm wrong but I call bulls***.

[fathom]

Domingo German only pitched three innings for the Marlins A ball affiliate. He only went three innings in his last start as well, but other than that he's been a starter. I am not saying he was pulled because of an imminent trade, but he's either on an innings limit or something curious is going on.

 

Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo · 1h

Told #Marlins prospect Domingo German has innings limit and is throwing only 3 innings per game for rest of year. Doesn't appear to be trade

[Soxfest]

Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo · 1h

Told #Marlins prospect Domingo German has innings limit and is throwing only 3 innings per game for rest of year. Doesn't appear to be trade

I cannot see Miami really pulling the trigger on Danks.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Why do I have a very difficult time believing the Marlins are interested in Danks. I doubt the Sox would pick up enough money for the Marlins to bite. I hope I'm wrong but I call bulls***.

EMinor I think posted something like $38M as what is owed to Danks. To get that figure in Marlins territory what do we have to eat, $15M+ or more? What could the Marlins possibly send us that would be worth eating that much cash, and why would the Marlins what to part with such a valuable prospect or package of prospects for John Danks of all players?

 

Makes no sense unless the Marlins are not being the Marlins. Maybe they can offer something the Sox like a bit, get the Sox to cover Danks' 2014 salary, and the Marlins think they could dump him later? Makes no sense. It's the baseball chewbacca defense & I am confused. I do not believe the Marlins trade rumors no sir TYVM.