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Carlos Rodon prospect watch


Feeky Magee

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:12 AM)
I can that. The 160 may have been reasonable depending on how long he missed and his max limit prior to the injury. His long term health should be the priority.

 

I didn't think the limit was necessarily that low but I think they could have gone about it smarter and had him skip a few starts throughout the season. If they skipped him 3 times that would be another 20 innings he could have pitched in the playoffs.

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QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:13 AM)
Yup. He'd be a good fit as well. Might be expensive though, as he's having a great (theoretically "un-aided") season- currently at .316/.369/.479.

 

That's my biggest issue with Cabrera. You just never know. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:16 AM)
I didn't think the limit was necessarily that low but I think they could have gone about it smarter and had him skip a few starts throughout the season. If they skipped him 3 times that would be another 20 innings he could have pitched in the playoffs.

True. The other side is would they have made it with him skipping start. Or is it in the best interst of his health to skip starts that often. It would effect his strength and endurance.

 

I don't think there is any one answer. It needs to be by an individual case. With Rodon there is no injury it's a matter of increasing workload. I'm not sure that skipping starts in the middle would be as effective as a constant load. You may be doing him a disservice by throwing 50 innings and resting, 50 more than resting. If a runner is training for a marathon the y don't take off time in the middle to build endurance they slowly increase the distance and speeed.

 

It may work to skip start but I'm not sure that'sthe best for his long term health.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 12:12 PM)
I can see that. The 160 may have been reasonable depending on how long he missed and his max limit prior to the injury. His long term health should be the priority.

The other real problem with this logic, as the Nats have demonstrated, is that they might well have given up a chance to win the world series by shutting him down. They expected "oh we've got great young talent we'll be right back next year" but then they had some other injuries and missed the playoffs completely the next year.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:15 AM)
I am thinking something in the 4/60 or 5/75 range.

That'd be incredibly foolish to give someone with Melky's ped past a contract like either of those. Some team will take the risk, but there is no way to tell how his body will hold up as he progresses into his 30s and if he even is clean now. Someone with his past should be a year deal with an option for a 2nd only. I trust Melky as far as I could throw John Kruk

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:15 AM)
I am thinking something in the 4/60 or 5/75 range.

I wonder what Markakis will get by comparison.

 

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:17 AM)
That's my biggest issue with Cabrera. You just never know. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Yeah, it's a concern. But it's interesting that three of the latest PED offenders- Melky, Jhonny Peralta and Nelson Cruz, are all having really good (presumably clean) seasons this year. Are they really clean? Can they be trusted going forward?

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QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 11:48 AM)
I wonder what Markakis will get by comparison.

 

I would love to get Markakis for 4 years 60 million (assuming the O's don't pick up his option). Durable, walks, doesn't strikeout and plays good defense, then move Avi to left.

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Markakis is making $12 million this season.

 

Do you really want to sign Nick Markakis for $40-50 million over 4 years?

 

That's almost another John Danks contract. And not even for a true impact player.

 

WAR of 1.5, -0.7 and 1.7 his last three years. Would be 31 on Opening Day next season.

 

750 OPS average from 2011 to 2013, and he's below 700 against LHP. Which means you're paying that kind of money to a platoon outfielder, essentially.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 10:52 AM)
I would love to get Markakis for 4 years 60 million (assuming the O's don't pick up his option). Durable, walks, doesn't strikeout and plays good defense, then move Avi to left.

 

 

That's crazy.

 

You better be getting a guy with an 800 OPS and the ability to play everyday for that price.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 12:21 PM)
I would rather see Jared Mitchell than a declining Markakis at that price.

 

It's about as logical as signing Curtis Granderson was last offseason.

 

Well, Curtis Granderson was going to cost a 2nd round pick. There was a lot of speculation that Granderson was a big Sox target until the Yankees made the QO.

 

EDIT: I also may have indicated otherwise, but Granderson is a guy I'd consider if it didn't cost the Sox really anything in terms of prospects. But if they are asking for really anyone in the top 20, I'd want no part of it.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 03:06 PM)
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 1h

 

Top college arm in '14 draft (Rodon, AAA, White Sox) now pitching at higher level than top college arm in '13 draft (Appel, AA, Astros).

 

Still awfully early in his career and he's still pretty young, but Appel has pretty much been garbage so far.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 03:10 PM)
Still awfully early in his career and he's still pretty young, but Appel has pretty much been garbage so far.

 

With a team like Houston and their unconventional view of the world, I wonder if that is someone the Sox could poach in a larger deal?

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QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 03:31 PM)
Did Appel do well to start off last year?

 

Not really, he's been pretty bad since being drafted. He was OK last year but that's in low A and below. If he was a 4th or 5th round pick you'd say OK growing pains but for a guy taken 1st overall he hasn't shown much. Just looking at his stats this year it seems he's had control issues -- 19 walks in 64 IP and that's in AA and A+.

 

 

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QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 03:31 PM)
Did Appel do well to start off last year?

 

He pitched nicely in 2013 after he signed. Didn't dominate, but they were what you'd consider encouraging numbers.

 

His problem in 2014 is that he has become insanely hittable. His K/9 and BB/9 numbers aren't terrible, he is just allowing asstons of hits and homeruns.

 

Interesting enough, since his promotion in AA this year, his rates have all gone the opposite way. He is now striking out less, walking more, but reducing his H/9, and cut his HR/9 down substantially, which has resulted in his ERA being dropped to normal figures. He just has to put that all together now.

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 09:42 PM)
He pitched nicely in 2013 after he signed. Didn't dominate, but they were what you'd consider encouraging numbers.

 

His problem in 2014 is that he has become insanely hittable. His K/9 and BB/9 numbers aren't terrible, he is just allowing asstons of hits and homeruns.

 

Interesting enough, since his promotion in AA this year, his rates have all gone the opposite way. He is now striking out less, walking more, but reducing his H/9, and cut his HR/9 down substantially, which has resulted in his ERA being dropped to normal figures. He just has to put that all together now.

 

Thanks. So doesn't sound like he's out of the league, just more development than we've come to expect from a top college pitcher.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 09:58 AM)
I bet you will see the same treatment that Sale and Q got their first years. It won't be a number limit per se, but you will see things like side sessions being limited. You will see turns skipped around off-days. If there aren't off days there, you will see other off-days used to push him back to six or seven days in between starts. They will keep an eye for dead arm periods and a real close watch on mechanics.

 

 

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 03:58 PM)
What do we believe Rodon's innings limit will be next year? What do you think he'll end up at this year?

 

Sorry for all the questions.

 

I said this earlier, but if I had to guess at next year, I would guess something like 175 to 180 IP.

 

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 03:00 PM)
If only we had a Lucas Harrell type player to offer...

 

 

If they can find guys like McHugh, Harrell and Humber on waivers, it's going to take a lot more than we're willing to give up.

 

They'd ask for something like Montas or Danish and Hawkins for Appel.

 

Of course, they're not going to get it, but everyone's seen the crazy trade proposals and what they were trying to get in return.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 18, 2014 -> 10:03 PM)
I said this earlier, but if I had to guess at next year, I would guess something like 175 to 180 IP.

 

That'd be great, I was assuming 160. At 6 IP per start that would be about 26 starts.

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