Carlos Rodon prospect watch

[chitownsportsfan]

What you can't get in AAA or the AFL is an experience pitching in The Show. Gets him an opportunity to face some butterflies and come into '15 "experienced". Either way, bet your ass this offseason and next spring he'll be working the change and on control.

 

I enjoy that we are having this debate. So far Rodon is blowing through even the most optimistic expectations. It looks like Chicago might have the top pitching prospect in all of MLB, not just this draft. If the Sox handle him right they could have the most devastating top 3 rotation since the Maddox/Glavine/Smoltz trio led Atlanta to half a dozen division titles.

 

Seriously, Sale, Rodon, Q would be filthy.

Edited August 25, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[lasttriptotulsa]

I don't really get the rush to get him up to MLB. Clearly he is highly advanced and his stuff is MLB ready now but I really don't think it's in Rodon's (and Chicago's) best long term interests to come up, make a couple 5-6 inning starts and start the arb clock a year early when he could have just made a few more starts in AAA and then head to the AFL with a big fat ZERO next to MLB service time entering '15.

 

If Rodon starts with the big league team next year, a September call up does nothing to his arb clock.

Edited August 25, 2014 by lasttriptotulsa

[chitownsportsfan]

If Rodon starts with the big league team next year, a September call up does nothing to his arb clock.

 

Is that because he'd 100% be a super 2 if he came up next April?

[Jerksticks]

Is that because he'd 100% be a super 2 if he came up next April?

Service time bro. If you think Rodon should break camp with the Sox next spring (and that's clearly a good debate in its own right) then you should be in favor of him tasting the show this year. I can't see it doing anything but be a help to that young man...if he's ready, which it sure is starting to look like.

[lasttriptotulsa]

If he comes up in September and start with the team next year, he would be arb eligible in 2018 and free agent in 2021 because his service time in 2014 would not be enough to push him to Super 2 for 2017. Remember, Super 2 does not change your free agent date, it just gives you 4 years of arbitration instead of 3.

[chitownsportsfan]

Service time bro. If you think Rodon should break camp with the Sox next spring (and that's clearly a good debate in its own right) then you should be in favor of him tasting the show this year. I can't see it doing anything but be a help to that young man...if he's ready, which it sure is starting to look like.

 

Yes but my question is does it quicken his arrival at to FA? Wouldn't it be an extra "year" on a MLB roster?

[Jerksticks]

If he comes up in September and start with the team next year, he would be arb eligible in 2018 and free agent in 2021 because his service time in 2014 would not be enough to push him to Super 2 for 2017. Remember, Super 2 does not change your free agent date, it just gives you 4 years of arbitration instead of 3.

 

Yea. And another good way to put it into perspective is after 2 full baseball years starting in April, he will still only have like 2 years and maybe 30 days. There's just no way that will qualify as the top tier of guys between 2 and 3 years.

 

Edit: I still think you need to reach 6 years anyway, regardless of your "twoness". Is that right?

Edited August 26, 2014 by Jerksticks

[chitownsportsfan]

this is what I found:

A player with six or more years of major-league service (on the team's 40-man roster) who is not under contract for the following season is automatically a free agent.

 

So basically if he gets added to the 40 man this year it gives the Sox 6 more years until FA instead of 7? If so, that is not good.

[southsider2k5]

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 2h

 

White Sox GM Rick Hahn watched top draft pick Carlos Rondon pitch on Sunday . Brass will make determination on big league promotion soon .

[SoxAce]

I wonder who Carlos Rondon is Bruce.

[thedoctor]

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 2h

 

White Sox GM Rick Hahn watched top draft pick Carlos Rondon pitch on Sunday . Brass will make determination on big league promotion soon .

 

carlos rondon will be the new josh mcgowan.

[Real]

Who is rodons agent?

[Kyyle23]

Who is rodons agent?

 

Guess

[peavy44]

Who is rodons agent?

 

 

Scott boras

[caulfield12]

It's not going to mean they have him for 7 years instead of 6...it's simply about when he reaches arbitration status, after 2 years or 3.

[Soxfest]

I wonder who Carlos Rondon is Bruce.

Do not expect Bruce to know any Sox prospects, he knows and cares only about the Cubs.

Edited August 26, 2014 by Soxfest

[hi8is]

Do not expect Bruce to know any Sox prospects, he knows and cares only about the Cubs.

You're telling me that his name is Rodon?

I thought it was Carlos Poopon!

[lasttriptotulsa]

this is what I found:

 

So basically if he gets added to the 40 man this year it gives the Sox 6 more years until FA instead of 7? If so, that is not good.

 

Whether Rodon comes up tomorrow or at the start of next year, a player cannot be a free agent until he has a minimum 6 full years service time. He will be a free agent in 2021 unless they wait until after opening day to bring him up next year. Then it would be 2022, but he would then be Super 2 and have 4 arb years.

Edited August 26, 2014 by lasttriptotulsa

[chitownsportsfan]

Whether Rodon comes up tomorrow or at the start of next year, a player cannot be a free agent until he has a minimum 6 full years service team. He will be a free agent in 2021 unless they wait until after opening day to bring him up next year. Then it would be 2022, but he would then be Super 2 and have 4 arb years.

 

Thanks. The "6 full years" clears it up. I'm still not convinced it's a great idea to bring him up this September, but if they planning on a big '15 offseason push it makes sense as he'll be in the rotation next April anyways sounds like and that will mean super 2 regardless.

[chitownsportsfan]

Also, I saw on twitter through 2nd hand account (so caveat emptor) that a scout in attendance had Rodon mostly around 93, topping out at 95 on occasion. The key will be knowing he can hit that when he's not just going ~80 pitches. Building endurance is going to be the most difficult part IMO if he comes up this year. I'd expect 5 or 6 innings a start at most and fading stuff as he gets past 80.

Edited August 26, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[BaconOnAStick]

Rodon's coaches at NC State had a habit of keeping Rodon out there way past 100 pitches. He can go that far, the question is whether we want him to. The answer is no.

[chitownsportsfan]

Rodon's coaches at NC State had a habit of keeping Rodon out there way past 100 pitches. He can go that far, the question is whether we want him to. The answer is no.

 

On the flip side he's only at like 105 innings total for the year, that is probably on the low side of where they'd want him maybe 150? My concern was more just "maintaining stuff". I don't know how effective he can be as a rookie that really don't know how to pace himself at MLB level. Of course, getting that experience is part of why maybe they should bring him up.

 

[dpd9189]

If the Sox do bring him up this year, I'd like to see them work him out of the pen and ease him into the big leagues. Also between now and the start of next season if it's determined that he is ready to be in the rotation then fine but if he isn't ready I REALLY hope the Sox don't rush him into it. Very easy to ruin a pitcher that way. Regardless I'm excited for him, he's a real legit prospect not just some guy who the organization hopes can be good.

[BaconOnAStick]

On the flip side he's only at like 105 innings total for the year, that is probably on the low side of where they'd want him maybe 150? My concern was more just "maintaining stuff". I don't know how effective he can be as a rookie that really don't know how to pace himself at MLB level. Of course, getting that experience is part of why maybe they should bring him up.

I have zero problem bringing him up and giving 3 or 4 MLB starts, as long as the plan is seriously limit his slider usage (he's going to have to learn to do this anyways) and work the fastball and changeup to get himself to 2 strike counts on MLB hitters. As we have all seen, its impossible for any lineup in the minors to force some adversity from him, he could probably just pump the heater and get outs.

 

 

If the Sox do bring him up this year, I'd like to see them work him out of the pen and ease him into the big leagues. Also between now and the start of next season if it's determined that he is ready to be in the rotation then fine but if he isn't ready I REALLY hope the Sox don't rush him into it. Very easy to ruin a pitcher that way. Regardless I'm excited for him, he's a real legit prospect not just some guy who the organization hopes can be good.

This really has never been a problem, the org has promoted and used guys who've moved well through the system which is SOP for teams like the White Sox. To get an idea of what its really like to have the entire franchise revolving around prospects look north, the White Sox have never been that overly reliant on prospects being the teams stars (even in the early 90's, when the Sox produced stars from their system at an historic rate).

[lasttriptotulsa]

Thanks. The "6 full years" clears it up. I'm still not convinced it's a great idea to bring him up this September, but if they planning on a big '15 offseason push it makes sense as he'll be in the rotation next April anyways sounds like and that will mean super 2 regardless.

 

You still don't quite have it. If he starts with the team next year, he will not be Super 2. To qualify for Super 2 status a player must have more than 2 years, but less than 3 years service time and rank in the top 22% of all 2 years players regarding service time. If he is with the team next year opening day, he would not have enough service time after his 2nd year to qualify for Super 2 as he would just have 2 years and 1 month.

 

Here are the ways his time with the White Sox could be laid out.

 

If he starts with the team next year regardless of whether he comes up in September:

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Free Agent

 

If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2)

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Arbitration 4

2022: Free Agent

 

If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2019: Arbitration 1

2020: Arbitration 2

2021: Arbitration 3

2022: Free Agent

 

If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2)

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Arbitration 4

2022: Free Agent

 

If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2019: Arbitration 1

2020: Arbitration 2

2021: Arbitration 3

2022: Free Agent

 

While it may seem like a good idea to hold off on calling him up until after opening day next year because you push his FA date out until 2022, a good portion of that extra year will be spent in the minors and you will end up paying him a hell of lot if he qualifies for Super 2 because of the 4 years of arbitration. If he doesn't qualify for Super 2, you're waiting until the season is more than half over so he spent the majority of the time in that "extra" year pitching in the minors. I think the best thing to do is just call him up in September to let him get his feet wet, start him next year with the big league team to go through the growing pains and then in 2016 we should be ready to compete and Rodon will have a year plus experience and should be ready to really help the team.