Carlos Rodon prospect watch

[Eminor3rd]

Great post

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs...g-carlos-rodon/

 

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Nearly Rational Exuberance Concerning Carlos Rodon

 

by Carson Cistulli - August 26, 2014

 

NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon was selected third overall by the White Sox during the most recent major-league draft on the strength of a fastball/slider combination about which obscene poems have been written — which poems, shortly after having been written, were also been ripped up and thrown into the fire by the confused and perspiring scouts who wrote them.

 

More quickly than even those totally enamored scouts could have reasonably predicted, Rodon has parlayed his ecstatic repertoire into an excellent, if brief, minor-league career. After striking out 15 of the 42 batters (35.7%) he faced over four appearances with High-A Winston-Salem, Rodon earned rather an aggressive promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. There, he’s produced roughly the same rates, having now recorded 11 strikeouts against just 28 batters (39.3%) over two starts and 7.0 innings — including an four-inning, eight-strikeout performance on Sunday (box).

 

Command has been an issue: over those same seven innings at Triple-A, Rodon has recorded five walks — that is, against roughly 18% of the batters he’s faced. Even so, his capacity to miss bats in the highest of the minor leagues has created the very real possibility that he might appear in the majors at some point in September.

 

Regard:

 

“No set plan” indicates the Sox are willing to entertain the idea of promoting Rodon to the majors — which, that’s a remarkable thing in itself. Consider, for example, this table, which features every player from the past five years to make his major-league debut in the same year he was drafted:

 

Paco Rodriguez

Chris Sale

 

That’s a list of only two players — and, notably, both Rodriguez and Sale were deployed as left-handed relievers on clubs which, if not necessarily in the thick of contention, at least managed second-place finishes in their respective divisions. The present iteration of the White Sox, meanwhile, aren’t even in the thin of contention. And the prospect of Rodon actually starting major-league games months removed from his last college appearance is an unusual, compelling one.

 

In conclusion — and for no other reason than because it’s beautiful — here’s footage of Rodon’s slider from his most recent start with Charlotte:

 

GIF

 

And that same pitch in slow motion:

 

GIF

[Dunt]

You still don't quite have it. If he starts with the team next year, he will not be Super 2. To qualify for Super 2 status a player must have more than 2 years, but less than 3 years service time and rank in the top 22% of all 2 years players regarding service time. If he is with the team next year opening day, he would not have enough service time after his 2nd year to qualify for Super 2 as he would just have 2 years and 1 month.

 

Here are the ways his time with the White Sox could be laid out.

 

If he starts with the team next year regardless of whether he comes up in September:

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Free Agent

 

If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2)

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Arbitration 4

2022: Free Agent

 

If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2019: Arbitration 1

2020: Arbitration 2

2021: Arbitration 3

2022: Free Agent

 

If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2)

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Arbitration 4

2022: Free Agent

 

If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2019: Arbitration 1

2020: Arbitration 2

2021: Arbitration 3

2022: Free Agent

 

While it may seem like a good idea to hold off on calling him up until after opening day next year because you push his FA date out until 2022, a good portion of that extra year will be spent in the minors and you will end up paying him a hell of lot if he qualifies for Super 2 because of the 4 years of arbitration. If he doesn't qualify for Super 2, you're waiting until the season is more than half over so he spent the majority of the time in that "extra" year pitching in the minors. I think the best thing to do is just call him up in September to let him get his feet wet, start him next year with the big league team to go through the growing pains and then in 2016 we should be ready to compete and Rodon will have a year plus experience and should be ready to really help the team.

 

Fantastic post. Thank you!

[chitownsportsfan]

that post should be stickied somewhere imo, great breakdown.

[southsider2k5]

Seth Lakso ‏@SethLakso 1h

 

Hahn made it clear that Rodon's case is different from Sale's. Said with Sale there was a playoff race and a need. Not so this season.

[witesoxfan]

Seth Lakso ‏@SethLakso 1h

 

Hahn made it clear that Rodon's case is different from Sale's. Said with Sale there was a playoff race and a need. Not so this season.

 

read: we feel that Carlos Rodon is absolutely capable of pitching the majors at this time but we do not want to start his arbitration clock this early because then we lose control of him and with Scrooge McDuck as his agent, we feel it's best to maximize his time with the Chicago White Sox by calling him up some time after opening day of next season.

[southsider2k5]

steven bazzicalupo ‏@yankees666 29m

@SethLakso @johnmanuelba think Rodon can still be promoted

 

 

Seth Lakso ‏@SethLakso 28m

@yankees666 @johnmanuelba from what I hear, no.

 

[venom4789]

I bet if rodon signed as quickly as sale he would have been brought up but since it took long and they had to go overslot it will cost rodon a few million later.

[oldsox]

Sox can bring Rodon to Chicago (Minnesota) and not put him on the 40 man roster. That way he gets to work out with the team, gets add'l coaching, and does not appear in games.

[thxfrthmmrs]

You still don't quite have it. If he starts with the team next year, he will not be Super 2. To qualify for Super 2 status a player must have more than 2 years, but less than 3 years service time and rank in the top 22% of all 2 years players regarding service time. If he is with the team next year opening day, he would not have enough service time after his 2nd year to qualify for Super 2 as he would just have 2 years and 1 month.

 

Here are the ways his time with the White Sox could be laid out.

 

If he starts with the team next year regardless of whether he comes up in September:

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Free Agent

 

If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2)

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Arbitration 4

2022: Free Agent

 

If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2019: Arbitration 1

2020: Arbitration 2

2021: Arbitration 3

2022: Free Agent

 

If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2)

2019: Arbitration 2

2020: Arbitration 3

2021: Arbitration 4

2022: Free Agent

 

If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish):

 

2015: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2016: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2017: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2018: Team Control (near minimum salary)

2019: Arbitration 1

2020: Arbitration 2

2021: Arbitration 3

2022: Free Agent

 

While it may seem like a good idea to hold off on calling him up until after opening day next year because you push his FA date out until 2022, a good portion of that extra year will be spent in the minors and you will end up paying him a hell of lot if he qualifies for Super 2 because of the 4 years of arbitration. If he doesn't qualify for Super 2, you're waiting until the season is more than half over so he spent the majority of the time in that "extra" year pitching in the minors. I think the best thing to do is just call him up in September to let him get his feet wet, start him next year with the big league team to go through the growing pains and then in 2016 we should be ready to compete and Rodon will have a year plus experience and should be ready to really help the team.

 

So if I am reading this correctly, in the scenario of whether we call up Rodon or not in September, it doesn't really change his service time as long as we don't start him next year? This seems to be against the rationale that the team is not calling up Rodon and so his service clock won't start this year. (Also note that I along with most people think that he will get called up in June, which would be before the Super 2 cut off and we won't get that extra year of team control)

Edited September 2, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[oldsox]

I wonder if Hahn thinks he should not call him up this month so he can use the spot on the 40 man for someone else during nthe off season?? Nooooo.

[caulfield12]

http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/white-...&ocid=yahoo

 

Article explaining rationale for not promoting Rodon this September.

[chitownsportsfan]

http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/white-...&ocid=yahoo

 

Article explaining rationale for not promoting Rodon this September.

 

Money quote at the very end (pun intended):

 

"it’s (MLB promotion) going to be put off until some time in 2015.”

 

They are going to (smartly imo) have him enter spring with "a chance to make the team" and he'll be brought up in May or later to try and avoid super 2 while continuing to work on his command in AAA.

 

There's no rush on this kid, Sox play it right they will have a 1-2 starter for the next 7+ years to pair with Q and Sale.

 

I like that they aren't going to rush him. He's only been going 3-5 innings in AAA and he's thrown some high stress innings this year already so a bullpen role in MLB doesn't make much sense for a team long out of contention.

Edited September 3, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I absolutely want them to wait until next year's Super Two status to pass. I've been wanting that all along, however, if there plan was not to call him up in September, then I don't like the aggressive promotions. Should have left him in W-S the entire year with a start in AA next year.

[caulfield12]

I think that was simply more to experience some failure/struggles in AAA and for him to have a firm idea in his mind of the talent level and competition level in High A, AA and AAA when he returns to the minors in April and May next year.

 

They could make the argument that he experienced some difficulties in his last start as ONE reason not to promote him quite yet....saying he has to work on fastball command and refine has change-up, etc.

[lasttriptotulsa]

So if I am reading this correctly, in the scenario of whether we call up Rodon or not in September, it doesn't really change his service time as long as we don't start him next year? This seems to be against the rationale that the team is not calling up Rodon and so his service clock won't start this year. (Also note that I along with most people think that he will get called up in June, which would be before the Super 2 cut off and we won't get that extra year of team control)

 

If Rodon were to come up in September, his Super 2 date would move accordingly with however many days he spent on the MLB roster this year. Remember, there is really no Super 2 "date", to achieve Super 2 status a 2 year player needs to be in the top 22% of all 2 year players in service time. The date for which a team can call a player up to avoid Super 2 usually would be in July sometime, but if Rodon were to have come up in September, they would have to wait until probably August because he would have those extra 25-30 of service time from this year. Because they didn't bring him up this year, it tends to make me believe he will NOT be starting with the big league team next year and there is probably a good chance they will wait until he is safe from acquiring Super 2 status.

[NorthSideSox72]

HahnCo isn't looking at a 3-4 year rebuilding plan. It seemed clear in 2013, and still does now, their plan was for only 2014 to be a truly lost year, with 2015 being competitive and a peak seen in 2016. That being the case, quite frankly, I don't think the difference between 2021 and 2022 for free agency is going to be significant enough to influence the decision. I think, especially if the free agent market isn't looking good, they'll add Rodon to the rotation if he's ready to open 2015.

 

If this were a team looking to spend the next 3-4 years rebuilding, then yeah, you hold him back for that extra year.

 

[witesoxfan]

I absolutely want them to wait until next year's Super Two status to pass. I've been wanting that all along, however, if there plan was not to call him up in September, then I don't like the aggressive promotions. Should have left him in W-S the entire year with a start in AA next year.

 

I don't worry about Super 2 status nearly as much as I do the extra year of control. If they keep him in the minors for 3 weeks, they control him through 2022 as opposed to 2021.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I don't really care if they choose to bring him up before the Super 2 or after but I am quite confident that he will not break camp with the White Sox. It doesn't make any sense. Unless he changes agents, it is imperative that the White Sox get as much control as possible. He will not be signing a below market extension and most likely will not be signing an extension at all. They need to ensure that he doesn't reach free agency until 2022.

[PorkChopExpress]

Isn't it obvious? The Sox are afraid if they call him up, he's going to win a few games and ruin their chances at a top ten draft pick.

[southsider2k5]

I wonder if Hahn thinks he should not call him up this month so he can use the spot on the 40 man for someone else during nthe off season?? Nooooo.

 

That is actually a really good thought.

[Thomas_Ventura_Roberts]

I think the Sox thought his college coaches overused his slider this year, and they want him to continue to develop his change-up and fastball command. It seems they are very pleased with how that went. Now, if they were to bring him up and pitch him sporadically out of the bullpen in competitive spots, he probably would end up using his wipe out slider to get guys out more than the White Sox would like at this point. I think priority number one is for him to keep making the progress that he has, and I would guess the Sox have him on track to be in their rotation soon enough next year. Of course, if the Sox find an offer for Danks or another one of the starters in the off-season that is to their liking, things like that could effect the exact timing for when he finally arrives.

[Rowand44]

I always prefer the aggressive promotions. If I had my way, he's starting for us out of ST next year but we'll see what happens.

[chitownsportsfan]

That is actually a really good thought.

 

I said a few days ago they might find someone in the Rule 5 they like. Again, they will be rather high up in the picking order not sure how many of the half dozen teams in front of them will have an extra 25 and/or 40 man spot but the Sox could take a flyer on a SP candidate.

[ILMOU]

"I'm disappointed that he didn't come up for the last month," Cooper told MLB.com. "Not to pitch, but just to be here and get a feel of things. Have some sidelines. Get comfortable and all that stuff. I'm disappointed that didn't happen, disappointed that he's not going to the instructional league. But listen, we'll see him in Spring Training and have a better idea."

 

"Certainly, he's a talented kid, and Rodon looks good," Cooper said. "I never had a guy that didn't have things to work on. Everybody. And so I'm anxious to meet him, to watch him, to start the relationship. Again I wish it could have started now, but for whatever reason, it didn't. We'll see him in Spring Training."

 

This doesn't exactly thrill me. Why isn't Coop calling the shots here?

Edited September 11, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen