Andy Wilkins

[Kyyle23]

The following set of stats by two players are strikingly similar:

 

PA Hits 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG

 

444 122 29 1 31 86 31 98 .304 .363 .613

452 124 30 1 28 76 28 82 .295 .338 .570

 

The first line belongs to MLB’s leader in HR’s and RBI’s

The other set belongs to the AAA International League’s 25 year old leader in the same two categories.

 

One is considered an amazing hitter and new super star.

The other isn’t even ranked in the top 20 prospects, of the White Sox, a team whose farm system is very poorly regarded. He also doesn’t appear to be worthy of

replacing Adam Dunn, one of the worst DH’s in the League, in the parent club’s line up.

Something is very wrong here.

 

Yes, you are setting a triple A players numbers against a major league players numbers and saying it is the same

[caulfield12]

Still. Raking. 1263 OPS in August so far to back up his July.

 

Regardless of how remote his chances of MLB success may or may not be, they're screwing the pooch here. We should be watching him now instead of Dunn, but aren't. And it might be Andy's only real opportunity against real MLB pitching. Sucks.

 

 

Luckily for Wilkins, there aren't very many affordable and available LH DH types on the market, just like Tyler Flowers mostly has to worry about the Sox going after Russell Martin (although of course they could also make a trade).

[caulfield12]

Yes, you are setting a triple A players numbers against a major league players numbers and saying it is the same

 

 

A lot like Grazy Sizemore, Josh Fields or Wilson Betemit's numbers in spring training vs. the real world...or NFL preseason stats, especially in the first 2 games. Or college basketball/football in non-conference, etc.

[Lillian]

I didn't say anything about his being able to perform at the same level, in the Big Leagues. All I am saying is that Wilkin's performance is impressive enough to merit some time with the parent club, and certainly enough to rank him ahead of a lot of guys in the organization who are not putting up numbers even close to being comparable.

 

 

[Lillian]

Yes, you are setting a triple A players numbers against a major league players numbers and saying it is the same

 

No, I'm not. That is precisely why I qualified the comparison.

[caulfield12]

I didn't say anything about his being able to perform at the same level, in the Big Leagues. All I am saying is that Wilkin's performance is impressive enough to merit some time with the parent club, and certainly enough to rank him ahead of a lot of guys in the organization who are not putting up numbers even close to being comparable.

 

The ceiling/floor in a 1B/DH/LF guy is a lot different than for a middle infielder, catcher, CF, starting pitcher, etc.

 

That said, power is at an all-time lower, so they would be almost negligent to not see what they have in Wilkins and hold onto Dunn out of stubbornness.

 

Hahn didn't sign Dunn (well, KW was more responsible, and JR okaying it), so he doesn't have to worry as much about pushing him out the door, as he's already pulled the trigger quickly on both Downs and Keppinger.

 

Maybe he's waiting to showcase him against the Giants, Blue Jays and Orioles. After that, he HAS to be gone.

[Lillian]

You're comparing MLB numbers to AAA numbers. That kills the validity of any argument you make immediately.

 

You're comparing Jose Abreu to Andy Wilkins. That kills the validity of your argument.

 

Also, Adam Dunn is one of the best DHs in the league against RHP, so I have no idea why you would say he's one of the worst and just assume it to be correct.

 

I hate to be so absolutely blunt here, but this is one of the worst arguments for Andy Wilkins I have seen on this website. I have no problem with him getting a chance at some point, but simply saying "his AAA numbers are kinda close to Jose Abreu's MLB numbers but they're still worse!" and "Adam Dunn sucks" are not good arguments.

 

You completely misinterpreted my point. First of all, Andy's numbers are not "kinda close", they're very close. But who is arguing that he would put up the same numbers in the Big Leagues? I certainly am not. The point I was making is that his numbers are impressive enough to consider him a top 20 prospect. Moreover, Adam Dunn is not good enough to be blocking his potential development, especially since he won't be back next year, and the trade deadline has passed.

 

The larger point, which I didn't make, is that we will never know if Wilkin's is going to be able to hit Big League pitching, unless he gets enought at bats in the League.

As some have pointed out, a September call up is always subject to criticism, owing to the reduced level of competition on opposing rosters, which also contain many Minor League call ups.

[witesoxfan]

I didn't say anything about his being able to perform at the same level, in the Big Leagues. All I am saying is that Wilkin's performance is impressive enough to merit some time with the parent club, and certainly enough to rank him ahead of a lot of guys in the organization who are not putting up numbers even close to being comparable.

 

You don't have to compare his numbers to Jose Abreu's numbers to make the case that he should get some time.

 

I'm willing to bet, however, that if Adam Dunn played this entire season at the AAA level, his line would be somewhere around .270/.420/.580. Adam Dunn is a lot better than you think and the difference between AAA and MLB is a hell of a lot greater than you think. That park is also playing like a bandbox this year as well.

 

No, I'm not. That is precisely why I qualified the comparison.

 

And in qualifying that comparison, you admit that it's an entirely invalid comparison. AAA and MLB are nowhere close to being similar competition levels.

[Balta1701]

That park is also playing like a bandbox this year as well.

I believe I saw a pretty convincing argument that this wasn't true, with most of the guys there putting up similar numbers on the road.

 

Wilkins's OPS, for example, is 100 points higher on the road. This may be in part an artifact of "a really brief, very intense hot streak at a time when they were on a road trip" but it makes it difficult to say Wilkins's recent performance is a park adjustment feature.

[Lillian]

Another point, which I made in a previous post, is that a left handed power hitter, to protect Abreu, is a top priority of the organization. There are very few candidates to fill that role, whom they could acquire in free agency, even if they were that eager to spend big money. Wilkins is the only player in the organization who could potentially fill that need. Why not do everything possible to try to get a better "read" on his chances? What is the point of leaving him in AAA?

[Balta1701]

Another point, which I made in a previous post, is that a left handed power hitter, to protect Abreu, is a top priority of the organization. There are very few candidates to fill that role, whom they could acquire in free agency, even if they were that eager to spend big money. Wilkins is the only player in the organization who could potentially fill that need. Why not do everything possible to try to get a better "read" on his chances? What is the point of leaving him in AAA?

Regardless of how much of a stretch the Abreu stats comparison was, this is an entirely correct and accurate point IMO.

[witesoxfan]

You completely misinterpreted my point. First of all, Andy's numbers are not "kinda close", they're very close. But who is arguing that he would put up the same numbers in the Big Leagues? I certainly am not. The point I was making is that his numbers are impressive enough to consider him a top 20 prospect. Moreover, Adam Dunn is not good enough to be blocking his potential development, especially since he won't be back next year, and the trade deadline has passed.

 

The larger point, which I didn't make, is that we will never know if Wilkin's is going to be able to hit Big League pitching, unless he gets enought at bats in the League.

As some have pointed out, a September call up is always subject to criticism, owing to the reduced level of competition on opposing rosters, which also contain many Minor League call ups.

 

Kinda close is similar to very close. Arguing that is silly. They are still worse at a level that has significantly less talent than the one Abreu is at. That's the more important point.

 

He turns 26 this year, plays 1B, and has never put up numbers even close to this before. That likely indicates that this current production, as opposed to the numbers he's previously put up, is the fluke. Adam Dunn IS good enough to be blocking him, otherwise the White Sox would have gotten rid of him. Adam Dunn is still a very good hitter against RHP and there is certainly still a possibility that the Sox get someone for him. The non-waiver trade deadline has passed. The Sox can certainly still get something for him and I'm sure they're working on it at this point in time, figuring which offers are on the table and which one makes the most sense with the prospect coming back and how much the Sox are willing to eat.

 

I'm very sure the White Sox will call Wilkins up in September, and he'll get some extended looks. Even if it is overly saturated with minor league call ups (not to near the extent that people generally believe), those are still the best of the best minor leaguers getting called up to the majors. It's a good litmus test to see where he's at. If he's successful, great, maybe he gets an extended look or maybe the Sox don't spend extra on a LH bat in free agency or trade. If he fails, then you know what you have against the AAA saturated MLB (even though it's not).

 

If the Sox find a taker for Dunn, then I have no problem with Wilkins coming up and testing his mettle at the MLB level, but there's no rush.

[Lillian]

The argument that the Knight's new ball park plays like a bandbox, isn't valid, when applied to Wilkins. He is not hitting cheap homers. He is strong enough to hit the ball out of any park.

 

It is also encouraging that he doesn't strike out too much, for a guy putting up big power numbers.

Edited August 11, 2014 by Lillian

[southsider2k5]

The White Sox are not afraid to aggressively move a minor leaguer who they believe is the real deal. The fact that Wilkins is still sitting at AAA should tell you everything you need to know about him.

[witesoxfan]

Bottom line, do people view Andy Wilkins differently if he comes up tomorrow and hits .300/.350/.500 in 40 games and 130 plate appearances as opposed to if he comes up September 1st and hits .300/.350/.500 in 25 games and 85 plate appearances? I'm still going to have the same general concerns heading into the year next year.

[Balta1701]

Bottom line, do people view Andy Wilkins differently if he comes up tomorrow and hits .300/.350/.500 in 40 games and 130 plate appearances as opposed to if he comes up September 1st and hits .300/.350/.500 in 25 games and 85 plate appearances? I'm still going to have the same general concerns heading into the year next year.

Kinda. It would sure help.

 

You certainly couldn't tell me "He hasn't yet earned a longer look" if he did that for 40 games.

[witesoxfan]

Kinda. It would sure help.

 

You certainly couldn't tell me "He hasn't yet earned a longer look" if he did that for 40 games.

 

Versus 25 games? It's still an incredibly small sample size. If he does that over 25 games, do you suddenly say "oh it's a fluke and he hasn't earned a longer look?"

[Balta1701]

Versus 25 games? It's still an incredibly small sample size. If he does that over 25 games, do you suddenly say "oh it's a fluke and he hasn't earned a longer look?"

ON the grounds that it was only september, yes, people would say that.

[witesoxfan]

ON the grounds that it was only september, yes, people would say that.

 

Then people are terribly misguided.

[Quin]

Wilkins being a lefty power bat has made him Lillian's top prospect

[ILMOU]

Then people are terribly misguided.

More AB's yields a better sample is not misguided. Spring Training is illusory (you never know what you're facing) and who knows where the offseason money will be spent. If it's spent on a DH, will Wilkins ever get an honest look?

 

The time is now, or ten days ago, actually, and each day of lollygagging is a lost opportunity. No, it's not life or death or anything, but as I recall us discussing, and you echoing, one of the primary purposes of this entire season is to learn about what we have and what we need. Nothing to be learned about Dunn - plenty, potentially, to be learned about AW, regardless of how remote the chance of success. They've operated with learning at the forefront on the pitching side all season - but they're dragging their heels now on position players.

 

This is how you make a rebuild season valuable, and we're screwing it up. Things can still be salvaged, as it's only the 11th, but waiting until crowded September, where he'll also have to fight Paulie farewell sentiment PA's, would just be wrong.

 

In general, this kind of points to July 31, 2014 as the day the rebuild went askew, and RH hasn't yet recovered. It was a sort of triple whammy:

 

- they failed to improve the team by acquiring near mlb ready talent in exchange for veterans that aren't part of the future

- they failed to provide opportunity for learning about young players by clearing the dead weight

- by not unloading any payroll midseason, there's less in the offseason till to acquire positions of need

 

Of course, most of this is on the players non-performance - essentially, Beckham, De Aza, Dunn and Danks played themselves into untradeability, so Plan A went out the window. But if Plan B is to merely wait it out, that's another fail.

 

This midseason stumble, coupled with the failure of most of the young/reclamation pitchers, necessitates some new strategy from RH to get the train back on the rails, imo.

 

Another point, which I made in a previous post, is that a left handed power hitter, to protect Abreu, is a top priority of the organization. There are very few candidates to fill that role, whom they could acquire in free agency, even if they were that eager to spend big money. Wilkins is the only player in the organization who could potentially fill that need. Why not do everything possible to try to get a better "read" on his chances? What is the point of leaving him in AAA?

 

^^^

Edited August 11, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[witesoxfan]

No, it's terribly misguided. Yes, more playing time represents a more significant sample size, but if people are really swayed by 40-50 additional at bats, then I have ocean view property in North Dakota to sell them.

 

The guy absolutely deserves a chance, and I've never denied this, but there's no rush to get him to the majors. The larger outcry should come from the group that wants to see Semien/Johnson/Sanchez given an extended look at 2B, but even I've admitted that there's not going to be a signficant difference in how we feel about those guys going into next year no matter what they do.

 

Frankly, getting Wilkins some starts in the OF, even if he's got absolutely no range out there, isn't the worst thing in the world for his prospects of making the MLB roster out of Spring Training.

[witesoxfan]

Also, lineup protection is largely a myth unless the guy hitting behind you is Barry Bonds. They're going to pitch to or around Abreu early in the game no matter what, and if they bring a lefty to hit behind him in, they'll still pitch to or around (or walk) Abreu regardless of the lefty behind him.

[ILMOU]

Also, lineup protection is largely a myth unless the guy hitting behind you is Barry Bonds. They're going to pitch to or around Abreu early in the game no matter what, and if they bring a lefty to hit behind him in, they'll still pitch to or around (or walk) Abreu regardless of the lefty behind him.

VMart behind Miggy to the tune of back2back MVP's says otherwise. If there's a huge dropoff in quality after Oso, he won't get pitched honestly, ever.

 

No, it's terribly misguided. Yes, more playing time represents a more significant sample size, but if people are really swayed by 40-50 additional at bats, then I have ocean view property in North Dakota to sell them.

 

The guy absolutely deserves a chance, and I've never denied this, but there's no rush to get him to the majors. The larger outcry should come from the group that wants to see Semien/Johnson/Sanchez given an extended look at 2B, but even I've admitted that there's not going to be a signficant difference in how we feel about those guys going into next year no matter what they do.

 

Frankly, getting Wilkins some starts in the OF, even if he's got absolutely no range out there, isn't the worst thing in the world for his prospects of making the MLB roster out of Spring Training.

A player will get closer to 100-120 PA's in a whole month of action - there's still about 80 to be had before September. Not insignificant.

 

Been calling for the idea of trying him in LF for a month now.

Edited August 11, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[southsider2k5]

VMart behind Miggy to the tune of back2back MVP's says otherwise. If there's a huge dropoff in quality after Oso, he won't get pitched honestly, ever.

 

 

A player will get closer to 100-120 PA's in a whole month of action - there's still about 80 to be had before September. Not insignificant.

 

Been calling for the idea of trying him in LF for a month now.

 

Prince hit behind Miguel during his MVP years.