Anderson and Rodon top 100 prospects

[NorthSideSox72]

Any publication that has Rodon and Adolfo arriving in the same year shouldn't be taken seriously.

 

And since it's an MLB piece, it shouldn't be taken seriously to be begin with.

It's funny, Jim Callis was really good for Baseball America. And he knows a ton. But I think what happens is, MLB is heavily influenced by input from the clubs themselves. So even with Callis there, you still get a lot of noise. So the list has value, but not in the way you may think - it may tell you how the team is looking at certain players.

 

[witesoxfan]

Ravelo is 22, showing fantastic doubles power, and absolutely murdering the ball otherwise. He's not a small guy and he's showing everything you want a prospect to show.

 

Ravelo is absolutely higher on my list. I'd like to see the power translate a little better, but I have no problem with what he's done thus far.

[harfman77]

Aside from the fact that Ravelo nearly matched Barnum's ISO last year and has a bigger one this year (.146 to .127), even if Barnum hit for more power but with a worse wRC+ in the majors, how does that make him more valuable than Ravelo? I get that people want power from certain positions, but I'm taking the .290/.380/.450 1B over the .250/.310/.500 guy, and even then in my opinion Ravelo's more likely to produce the former line than Barnum the latter.

 

That has nothing to do with projections. Barnum has a ton of raw power that he needs to translate into games, Ravelo does not. We are talking about prospects and trying to determine their ceilings based on the tools they present. The list is basically saying that Barnum has a better chance of refining his swing to make more consistent contact than Ravelo is going to all of a sudden develop power. Again these are projections based on upside and it is hard to see Ravelo developing into much more than he is now. If Ravelo were a LF, 2B, or even would have been able to stay at 3B, his profile looks a lot better long term, but if he is indeed limited to 1B, his value is not very high.

 

[witesoxfan]

That has nothing to do with projections. Barnum has a ton of raw power that he needs to translate into games, Ravelo does not. We are talking about prospects and trying to determine their ceilings based on the tools they present. The list is basically saying that Barnum has a better chance of refining his swing to make more consistent contact than Ravelo is going to all of a sudden develop power. Again these are projections based on upside and it is hard to see Ravelo developing into much more than he is now. If Ravelo were a LF, 2B, or even would have been able to stay at 3B, his profile looks a lot better long term, but if he is indeed limited to 1B, his value is not very high.

 

This disagrees with Nathaniel Stoltz's scouting report on him. Stoltz has said previously that, while he may not be a lock to become a 20 homer guy, he definitely has the talent and ability to do so. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rangel-ravelo-1b-sleeper/

 

I like the prospects of Ravelo becoming a regular at the MLB level far more than I do Barnum's.

[harfman77]

This disagrees with Nathaniel Stoltz's scouting report on him. Stoltz has said previously that, while he may not be a lock to become a 20 homer guy, he definitely has the talent and ability to do so. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rangel-ravelo-1b-sleeper/

 

I like the prospects of Ravelo becoming a regular at the MLB level far more than I do Barnum's.

 

I would agree with that. When you are measuring upside though Barnum has a ton of upside and Ravelos is pretty limited. The MLB.com article says that the Sox have given Barnums power an 80 grade on the 80 point system. In my mind Ravelo's closest ML comp right now would be Gaby Sanchez.

 

EDIT: Barnum is by far one of the biggest boom or bust guys in the system, if he hits you have a gold mine. Ravelo just doesn't have that upside, Ravelo does have a much better chance of reaching the majors though his ceiling right now would seem to be a bat off the bench.

Edited July 28, 2014 by IowaSoxFan

[Y2Jimmy0]

Here is the link.:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/cws/new-dr...p;vkey=news_cws

 

And the list (bottom line is they always favor athletes -- guys who can run -- over baseball players -- guys who can hit):

 

1. Rodon

2. Anderson.

3. Montas

4. Johnson

5. Hawkins

6. Adams.

7. Danish

8. Davidson

9. Michalczewski

10. Sanchez

11. Beck

12. May

13. Thompson (not in Ravelo's class as a hitter)

14. Engel

15. Barnum

16. Lopez

17. Zapata

18. Ortiz

19. Mitchell

20. Smith

 

I think Rondon should be on this list also. From everyone I talked to including Nathaniel Stoltz and others; his defense is so good that if he stays above the Mendoza Line he will be a for sure big leaguer.

 

[Feeky Magee]

That has nothing to do with projections. Barnum has a ton of raw power that he needs to translate into games, Ravelo does not. We are talking about prospects and trying to determine their ceilings based on the tools they present. The list is basically saying that Barnum has a better chance of refining his swing to make more consistent contact than Ravelo is going to all of a sudden develop power. Again these are projections based on upside and it is hard to see Ravelo developing into much more than he is now. If Ravelo were a LF, 2B, or even would have been able to stay at 3B, his profile looks a lot better long term, but if he is indeed limited to 1B, his value is not very high.

Actually Ravelo does have power that hasn't yet translated into games, I've seen it written that he puts on power shows in BP. He hits an absolute ton of doubles, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of those started turning into homers. I'd be more surprised if Barnum started making acceptable contact all of a sudden.

 

Of course he'd be a way better prospect anywhere other than 1B (I'd like to see him at least tried in the corner outfield), and not to be a complete stats scout but at the moment, I think he and his 145 wRC+ at AA aged 22 has a better chance than Barnum and his 90 wRC+ aged 6 months younger at A+.

[witesoxfan]

I would agree with that. When you are measuring upside though Barnum has a ton of upside and Ravelos is pretty limited. The MLB.com article says that the Sox have given Barnums power an 80 grade on the 80 point system. In my mind Ravelo's closest ML comp right now would be Gaby Sanchez.

 

EDIT: Barnum is by far one of the biggest boom or bust guys in the system, if he hits you have a gold mine. Ravelo just doesn't have that upside, Ravelo does have a much better chance of reaching the majors though his ceiling right now would seem to be a bat off the bench.

 

I think his expected role will be bat off the bench. I think his ceiling is that of a solid to good starting 1B, a .300/.370/.480, 40 2B, 20 HR kind of player.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I would agree with that. When you are measuring upside though Barnum has a ton of upside and Ravelos is pretty limited. The MLB.com article says that the Sox have given Barnums power an 80 grade on the 80 point system. In my mind Ravelo's closest ML comp right now would be Gaby Sanchez.

 

EDIT: Barnum is by far one of the biggest boom or bust guys in the system, if he hits you have a gold mine. Ravelo just doesn't have that upside, Ravelo does have a much better chance of reaching the majors though his ceiling right now would seem to be a bat off the bench.

 

Could Ravelo be similar to a RH Nick Johnson type offensively?

[Feeky Magee]

I would agree with that. When you are measuring upside though Barnum has a ton of upside and Ravelos is pretty limited. The MLB.com article says that the Sox have given Barnums power an 80 grade on the 80 point system. In my mind Ravelo's closest ML comp right now would be Gaby Sanchez.

 

EDIT: Barnum is by far one of the biggest boom or bust guys in the system, if he hits you have a gold mine. Ravelo just doesn't have that upside, Ravelo does have a much better chance of reaching the majors though his ceiling right now would seem to be a bat off the bench.

I'm not sure of this whole "boom or bust" concept. I think there's a solid argument to be made that Ravelo's ceiling is higher. We've seen what he can do with limited power, if he starts hitting for power he can be really something. Barnum might have huge power, but even if it starts showing up in games, with his hit-tool and plate discipline being so meh, does that really equate a gold mine? If you asked me who's more likely to put up, say, a 150 wRC+ in the majors, I'd say Ravelo. That to me is better upside.

[southsider2k5]

This disagrees with Nathaniel Stoltz's scouting report on him. Stoltz has said previously that, while he may not be a lock to become a 20 homer guy, he definitely has the talent and ability to do so. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/rangel-ravelo-1b-sleeper/

 

I like the prospects of Ravelo becoming a regular at the MLB level far more than I do Barnum's.

 

This is how I look at it in terms of grading. Out of 10, Ravelo is a 5 now, with a chance at 7, all things considered (minuses for position and lack of power). Barnum is a 3 now, with at chance at 9 because of his huge power.

 

It is all in how you want to grade for the minors. How much do you weigh a ceiling against a guys chances at actually making it to that ceiling? Ravelo has a much better chance of making it, but IF Barnum makes it, he could have MLB leading type power.

[harfman77]

I'm not sure of this whole "boom or bust" concept. I think there's a solid argument to be made that Ravelo's ceiling is higher. We've seen what he can do with limited power, if he starts hitting for power he can be really something. Barnum might have huge power, but even if it starts showing up in games, with his hit-tool and plate discipline being so meh, does that really equate a gold mine? If you asked me who's more likely to put up, say, a 150 wRC+ in the majors, I'd say Ravelo. That to me is better upside.

 

If everything clicks for Barnum you have a Ryan Howard in his prime type of player. If everything clicks for Ravelo you have Billy Butler. These are prospects lists that are all based on projectability. Ravelo's got a better shot at making the majors but Barnum has better shot at being an all-star in my view. It is a gold mine if Barnum learns better pitch recognition and fixes the hole in his swing, skills that can be learned through repetition. While Ravelo is only 10 months older, he has almost 1000 more PA's than Barnum does (1603-674).

[Feeky Magee]

If everything clicks for Barnum you have a Ryan Howard in his prime type of player. If everything clicks for Ravelo you have Billy Butler. These are prospects lists that are all based on projectability. Ravelo's got a better shot at making the majors but Barnum has better shot at being an all-star in my view. It is a gold mine if Barnum learns better pitch recognition and fixes the hole in his swing, skills that can be learned through repetition. While Ravelo is only 10 months older, he has almost 1000 more PA's than Barnum does (1603-674).

Ryan Howard in his prime hit .313/.425/.659. Where's the evidence that Barnum has anything even approaching that hit-tool or plate discipline? If by "if everything clicks" for Barnum you mean "if he totally changes his skill-set" then sure, but you could say that for anyone. Billy Butler's a pretty good comp for Ravelo and insanely more realistic than Howard to Barnum. Butler was also an All-Star. That would give Ravelo a better shot of being an All-Star.

[SoxAce]

Could Ravelo be similar to a RH Nick Johnson type offensively?

He can be anywhere from Johnson to Casey Kotchman (who ironically I liked alot as well as a prospect in the past) in all honesty. He is a serious wildcard in regsrds to his power.

[southsider2k5]

Ryan Howard in his prime hit .313/.425/.659. Where's the evidence that Barnum has anything even approaching that hit-tool or plate discipline? If by "if everything clicks" for Barnum you mean "if he totally changes his skill-set" then sure, but you could say that for anyone. Billy Butler's a pretty good comp for Ravelo and insanely more realistic than Howard to Barnum. Butler was also an All-Star. That would give Ravelo a better shot of being an All-Star.

 

Billy Butler is realistic?

[Feeky Magee]

Billy Butler is realistic?

More realistic than Ryan Howard in his prime to Keon Barnum? Sure.

[southsider2k5]

More realistic than Ryan Howard in his prime to Keon Barnum? Sure.

 

Billy Butler is not a "pretty good comp" for Ravelo.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If everything clicks for Barnum you have a Ryan Howard in his prime type of player. If everything clicks for Ravelo you have Billy Butler. These are prospects lists that are all based on projectability. Ravelo's got a better shot at making the majors but Barnum has better shot at being an all-star in my view. It is a gold mine if Barnum learns better pitch recognition and fixes the hole in his swing, skills that can be learned through repetition. While Ravelo is only 10 months older, he has almost 1000 more PA's than Barnum does (1603-674).

 

I think a better comp for Barnum is former WhiteSox prospect Chris Carter.

[Feeky Magee]

Billy Butler is not a "pretty good comp" for Ravelo.

First baseman with a good hit-tool who can take a walk and has decent but limited power?

[Jake]

It's funny, Jim Callis was really good for Baseball America. And he knows a ton. But I think what happens is, MLB is heavily influenced by input from the clubs themselves. So even with Callis there, you still get a lot of noise. So the list has value, but not in the way you may think - it may tell you how the team is looking at certain players.

 

I think the issue is staff. Jim Callis is great, but BA has people everywhere scouting and giving input on these lists. It very well may be that Callis and Mayo have to come up with these lists with little input outside of themselves.

[southsider2k5]

First baseman with a good hit-tool who can take a walk and has decent but limited power?

 

If he was really there, he'd be the #2 or #3 prospect in the system right now. Ceiling? Maybe. Realistic, not really.

[Feeky Magee]

If he was really there, he'd be the #2 or #3 prospect in the system right now. Ceiling? Maybe. Realistic, not really.

We were specifically talking about ceiling comps

 

If everything clicks for Barnum you have a Ryan Howard in his prime type of player. If everything clicks for Ravelo you have Billy Butler.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Feeky Magee

[Dunt]

I really dont understand how some of these pitchers made the list over Montas

[harfman77]

Billy Butler is realistic?

 

No, those are the extreme upsides of each player. Gaby Sanchez is a much more realistic comp.

[Feeky Magee]

One thing I found funny is Andrew Mitchell's control getting a 40, whilst Spencer Adams got a 45. Mitchell has walked 22.4% of batters faced, Adams 2%.