Open Letter to RH

[greg775]

Dunn will be moved (assuming the Sox don't go on a big winning streak). He has an .858 OPS in 300+ PAs this year against righties. That is a lot better than most baseball players.

 

I truly don't think teams care about Dunn's stats and perceived value. They think about the reality of having Adam Dunn around and the idea of that does not sit well with them. If you were a contender would you want to risk Dunn going in a 1-for-30 with 20 strikeouts? A GM can't take that risk; he'd be run out of his town by irate fans.

[witesoxfan]

As a professional baseball organization, there is no good reason for them to give away players that they are still paying. If we had superior replacements available, that would be one thing. We don't.

 

In the case of Beckham, I do not believe this to be true. I won't argue it, but I believe Semien is a superior option at this point.

[LittleHurt05]

In the case of Beckham, I do not believe this to be true. I won't argue it, but I believe Semien is a superior option at this point.

 

I don't disagree, but I think Semiem may be better served finishing the year off at AAA and starting anew at the MLB level in 2015. He didn't exactly prosper in April or May, other than a few timely hits. Let Beckham finish the year, and give Semien the job next year.

[witesoxfan]

I don't disagree, but I think Semiem may be better served finishing the year off at AAA and starting anew at the MLB level in 2015. He didn't exactly prosper in April or May, other than a few timely hits. Let Beckham finish the year, and give Semien the job next year.

 

My thing is this: if this is in fact a rebuilding year, which, for all intents and purposes, it is, then you want guys who will be contributing in the future working towards that right now. Gordon Beckham is not. Marcus Semien is (or Carlos Sanchez or Micah Johnson. I personally like Semien, but I'm not in the front office nor do I have the scouting capabilities to know how well any of them will do in the majors).

 

My qualm is that the Sox believe there is still something there with Beckham - it's hard for me to say that the talent isn't there, but we havent seen it. And then, how is 2 months going to change 4 and a half years of ineptitude? Why not just move on and see if we have something in the next guy? I personally think Semien is that next guy, but given the way the organization has handled Semien, they obviously feel he can be [hopefully] an ultra sub, where he plays every day but maybe in a different position.

 

I don't know. I'm drunk and like my Semien and don't like Beckham and don't see much incentive in keeping him around, and I'm not alone, but I don't make decisions.

[cabiness42]

I truly don't think teams care about Dunn's stats and perceived value. They think about the reality of having Adam Dunn around and the idea of that does not sit well with them. If you were a contender would you want to risk Dunn going in a 1-for-30 with 20 strikeouts? A GM can't take that risk; he'd be run out of his town by irate fans.

 

Look at Seattle's DH numbers from this year. They are already having a lot of 1-for-30s in that slot. Dunn's worst month is still better than what they have.

[ron883]

I truly don't think teams care about Dunn's stats and perceived value. They think about the reality of having Adam Dunn around and the idea of that does not sit well with them. If you were a contender would you want to risk Dunn going in a 1-for-30 with 20 strikeouts? A GM can't take that risk; he'd be run out of his town by irate fans.

Lmao does anybody take you seriously around here? So GMs should ignore stats and make decisions based on emotion pretty much?

[Dick Allen]

My thing is this: if this is in fact a rebuilding year, which, for all intents and purposes, it is, then you want guys who will be contributing in the future working towards that right now. Gordon Beckham is not. Marcus Semien is (or Carlos Sanchez or Micah Johnson. I personally like Semien, but I'm not in the front office nor do I have the scouting capabilities to know how well any of them will do in the majors).

 

My qualm is that the Sox believe there is still something there with Beckham - it's hard for me to say that the talent isn't there, but we havent seen it. And then, how is 2 months going to change 4 and a half years of ineptitude? Why not just move on and see if we have something in the next guy? I personally think Semien is that next guy, but given the way the organization has handled Semien, they obviously feel he can be [hopefully] an ultra sub, where he plays every day but maybe in a different position.

 

I don't know. I'm drunk and like my Semien and don't like Beckham and don't see much incentive in keeping him around, and I'm not alone, but I don't make decisions.

In his last 10 games in a league Jordan Danks rakes, he's hitting under .220 with an OBP under .320. Why call him up when he's going bad? Wait until he's on a bit of a role. It's sort of a pet peeve of mine. A couple of years ago, the Sox needed a bat and Viciedo was on fire in Charlotte. They eventually called him up when he was struggling. Facing better pitchers usually doesn't turn that around. Call him up when he's hot, maybe he stays on a roll and gains some confidence. If he doesn't get hot, call him up in September. Marcus Semien staying in Charlotte the next 27 games isn't going to hurt his development. People complain the Sox rush prospects, yet anyone that looks decent in Charlotte needs to replace someone in Chicago all the time. Semien was already rushed.

[witesoxfan]

In his last 10 games in a league Jordan Danks rakes, he's hitting under .220 with an OBP under .320. Why call him up when he's going bad? Wait until he's on a bit of a role. It's sort of a pet peeve of mine. A couple of years ago, the Sox needed a bat and Viciedo was on fire in Charlotte. They eventually called him up when he was struggling. Facing better pitchers usually doesn't turn that around. Call him up when he's hot, maybe he stays on a roll and gains some confidence. If he doesn't get hot, call him up in September. Marcus Semien staying in Charlotte the next 27 games isn't going to hurt his development. People complain the Sox rush prospects, yet anyone that looks decent in Charlotte needs to replace someone in Chicago all the time. Semien was already rushed.

 

That also shows how limited a sample size 10 games is, and on top of it, he's been hitting for power too. You didn't mention that he's got a .486 slugging percentage thanks to two doubles, a triple, and two homers. And in July, he's hitting .290/.384/.570/.954. He's hitting the ball really well right now. If you have to wait for a 10 game sample of when a guy is hitting well as opposed to just calling guys up when they're ready, you may miss it.

 

I don't think the Sox will do it, but I'd really like them to get Semien every day playing time right now. Frankly, I'm wondering if the Sox aren't keeping him in AAA to retain trade value.

[Dick Allen]

That also shows how limited a sample size 10 games is, and on top of it, he's been hitting for power too. You didn't mention that he's got a .486 slugging percentage thanks to two doubles, a triple, and two homers. And in July, he's hitting .290/.384/.570/.954. He's hitting the ball really well right now. If you have to wait for a 10 game sample of when a guy is hitting well as opposed to just calling guys up when they're ready, you may miss it.

 

I don't think the Sox will do it, but I'd really like them to get Semien every day playing time right now. Frankly, I'm wondering if the Sox aren't keeping him in AAA to retain trade value.

If 10 games is really limited, why fret about keeping him in Charlotte 27 more games? You never know, Beckham may get hot and someone may give up at least something for him.

 

And again, you made my point. He WAS hot. He really isn't right now. Call him up when he's on a roll.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[cabiness42]

My thing is this: if this is in fact a rebuilding year, which, for all intents and purposes, it is, then you want guys who will be contributing in the future working towards that right now. Gordon Beckham is not. Marcus Semien is (or Carlos Sanchez or Micah Johnson. I personally like Semien, but I'm not in the front office nor do I have the scouting capabilities to know how well any of them will do in the majors).

 

My qualm is that the Sox believe there is still something there with Beckham - it's hard for me to say that the talent isn't there, but we havent seen it. And then, how is 2 months going to change 4 and a half years of ineptitude? Why not just move on and see if we have something in the next guy? I personally think Semien is that next guy, but given the way the organization has handled Semien, they obviously feel he can be [hopefully] an ultra sub, where he plays every day but maybe in a different position.

 

I don't know. I'm drunk and like my Semien and don't like Beckham and don't see much incentive in keeping him around, and I'm not alone, but I don't make decisions.

 

I don't think anybody disputes that Semien has more of a future than Beckham. The question is where is the best place to have Semien right now. I think AAA has been the best place for him up to this date. Pehaps he will reach a point within the next month or so where it's time for him to face big league pitching again. At that point, it would be dumb to keep giving playing time at 2B to Beckham.

[witesoxfan]

If 10 games is really limited, why fret about keeping him in Charlotte 27 more games? You never know, Beckham may get hot and someone may give up at least something for him.

 

And again, you made my point. He WAS hot. He really isn't right now. Call him up when he's on a roll.

 

But in his previous 6, he's hitting .333 with a .370 OBP, so he is on a roll. Do you see how silly that is? The guy has hit well recently and I think it would be worthwhile to see him for the next two months.

 

Either way, I just don't see any team giving up anything for Beckham, even if he gets hot. I also don't see the Sox DFA'ing Beckham or calling up Semien. It's just what I think they should do, but, again, I don't see it happening.

[Eminor3rd]

Hot/cold streaks aren't predictive at all. You need the coaching staff to evaluate whether or not a guy needs work or has nothing left to learn.

[Dick Allen]

Hot/cold streaks aren't predictive at all. You need the coaching staff to evaluate whether or not a guy needs work or has nothing left to learn.

When guys are hot at the plate, there is a far better chance they will have some success when they get called up than guys who are presently struggling. This, because hitting is not just physical, can lead to an increase in confidence which can traslate to success. Guys struggle at first and have big careers. Guys start out on fire and fizzle. I get that. But I would rather have a guy seeing the ball really well at the time of his promotion.

 

BTW, if Marcus Semien has nothing left to learn, he is going to be a HOFer.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

When guys are hot at the plate, there is a far better chance they will have some success when they get called up than guys who are presently struggling. This, because hitting is not just physical, can lead to an increase in confidence which can traslate to success. Guys struggle at first and have big careers. Guys start out on fire and fizzle. I get that. But I would rather have a guy seeing the ball really well at the time of his promotion.

 

BTW, if Marcus Semien has nothing left to learn, he is going to be a HOFer.

 

I'm not saying Marcus doesn't have anything left to learn, I'm just saying that him having a hot ten days is not the sign that he's ready. I think there's something to his confidence maybe being up if he's called up when he's hot, but the problem with "when he's seeing the ball well" is that guys are in that mode until they suddenly aren't, and there's just no way to tell when that will stop. It's literally no more likely a "hot" guy will get a hit in his next at bat than a "cold" guy, assuming of course that you control for talent.

 

Now, if a guy has suddenly mastered something he's been working on, an improvement at the plate can be a by-product of course, but that's what you need the evaluators for, because they know what he's trying to do and they'll know why he's successful or not. Simply that he's been "seeing the ball well" doesn't translate even from day to day, let alone from league to league.

 

Next time he gets hot though, I don't think there's any way we will be able to tell if it's because of a mechanical or approach tweak. We just have to trust the staff.

[hogan873]

I truly don't think teams care about Dunn's stats and perceived value. They think about the reality of having Adam Dunn around and the idea of that does not sit well with them. If you were a contender would you want to risk Dunn going in a 1-for-30 with 20 strikeouts? A GM can't take that risk; he'd be run out of his town by irate fans.

Teams will look at a player's stats and perceived value before they look at it emotionally. I personally think there's a decent chance that Dunn gets claimed and will be dealt. The Sox probably won't get much (or anything) for him, but his salary would be gone, and the Sox could start planning for the next DH.

 

We all know you don't like Dunn (it's eerily like your hate for Rios when he was here), but he's not having a terrible year. He would be a good piece for a team looking for a bat to play against right-handed pitching.

[caulfield12]

They probably want Beckham for his ability to turn the double play and his history with Ramirez up the middle...because otherwise they'd be better off just running him through waivers and seeing if anyone bites. Personally, I think Semien learned a lot and would inject some life and excitement into the line-up again, to go along with Eaton at the top. But that's just me, I'm sick and tired of Beckham, and Viciedo/DeAza too, for that matter.

 

I have a feeling that Dunn MIGHT be claimed or a deal could be worked out, but then the White Sox are still theoretically close enough to the Wild Card and .500 that trading him while the Sox are in the race to give Wilkins a shot isn't in the cards...if they really believed in Wilkins, they'd have done something like DL or send down Garcia or Konerko or some other piece of chicanery.

 

Finally, DeAza's definitely needed in the OF until Avisail comes back, unless you're going to run Sierra/Jordan Danks/Michael Taylor out there instead. That's not exactly a move that a team on the cusp of wild card contention makes yet, either.

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I'm not saying Marcus doesn't have anything left to learn, I'm just saying that him having a hot ten days is not the sign that he's ready. I think there's something to his confidence maybe being up if he's called up when he's hot, but the problem with "when he's seeing the ball well" is that guys are in that mode until they suddenly aren't, and there's just no way to tell when that will stop. It's literally no more likely a "hot" guy will get a hit in his next at bat than a "cold" guy, assuming of course that you control for talent.

 

Now, if a guy has suddenly mastered something he's been working on, an improvement at the plate can be a by-product of course, but that's what you need the evaluators for, because they know what he's trying to do and they'll know why he's successful or not. Simply that he's been "seeing the ball well" doesn't translate even from day to day, let alone from league to league.

 

Next time he gets hot though, I don't think there's any way we will be able to tell if it's because of a mechanical or approach tweak. We just have to trust the staff.

Anybody that's played the game beyond little league would disagree with this. Seriously. The mental/confidence aspect of hitting is huge. When you're going well and confidence level is high, you truly are seeing the ball better. When I was in a funk, I knew I wasn't seeing the ball well and more often than not knew I was in for a rough game at the plate. I often knew this during BP prior to the game. The mental component of this game is very important, especially when it comes to hitting.

 

Just take a look at Flowers right now. Sometimes you change one thing (start wearing glasses), have success, and you start to attribute this change to your success (increased confidence) even if it didn't. Now maybe the glasses really have improved his vision and his success is a direct result of this physical change but more than likely it just comes down to his increased confidence level resulting from the success he experienced when he started wearing the glasses. I think we would all agree that there is a greater probability Flowers gets a hit in his next at-bat today than any at-bat in June or the first week in July. It sounds silly but there's a reason hitting is so cyclical and guys often experience extended hot/cold stretches. This isn't coincidence or as simple as saying his BABIP is unusually high/low through these stretches. The numbers guys like to think it is but typically there is a reason for stretches in which a hitter experiences a low/high BABIP and it's not just a matter of luck.

[Eminor3rd]

Anybody that's played the game beyond little league would disagree with this. Seriously. The mental/confidence aspect of hitting is huge. When you're going well and confidence level is high, you truly are seeing the ball better. When I was in a funk, I knew I wasn't seeing the ball well and more often than not knew I was in for a rough game at the plate. I often knew this during BP prior to the game. The mental component of this game is very important, especially when it comes to hitting.

 

Just take a look at Flowers right now. Sometimes you change one thing (start wearing glasses), have success, and you start to attribute this change to your success (increased confidence) even if it didn't. Now maybe the glasses really have improved his vision and his success is a direct result of this physical change but more than likely it just comes down to his increased confidence level resulting from the success he experienced when he started wearing the glasses. I think we would all agree that there is a greater probability Flowers gets a hit in his next at-bat today than any at-bat in June or the first week in July. It sounds silly but there's a reason hitting is so cyclical and guys often experience extended hot/cold stretches. This isn't coincidence or as simple as saying his BABIP is unusually high/low through these stretches. The numbers guys like to think it is but typically there is a reason for stretches in which a hitter experiences a low/high BABIP and it's not just a matter of luck.

 

I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day.

 

If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level."

[Dick Allen]

I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day.

 

If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level."

No you can't. But generally if you are banking on someone's slump ending because they are being promoted to the major leagues, you are going to be dissappointed. Guys generally do get called up when they are going well.

[Eminor3rd]

No you can't. But generally if you are banking on someone's slump ending because they are being promoted to the major leagues, you are going to be dissappointed. Guys generally do get called up when they are going well.

 

Right, because good performance also correlates with "figuring something out." I'm just saying there isn't value to a callup just because of a hot hand. You need more information than any of us are privy to in order to identify if a player has taken a stride forward versus just "seeing the ball well."

 

I would have some killer hot streaks in Legion too, but there weren't any D1 colleges making recruiting calls because anyone could see that I was undersized and unathletic. A longer look would reveal that I was guessing right on fastballs a lot and as soon as I saw anything resembling a slider, I was fooled every time. I never figured the slider out, though I did have some streaks where I was able to track it enough to shank a few in. Those streaks weren't predictive because they weren't the result of any change I was making.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day.

 

If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level."

We'll agree to disagree because while you might not be able to predict the length of hot streaks, I do think there is a greater probability of a minor league callup experiencing immediate success at the major league level if he is coming in hot and confidence is high compared to struggling and confidence low.

[Dick Allen]

Right, because good performance also correlates with "figuring something out." I'm just saying there isn't value to a callup just because of a hot hand. You need more information than any of us are privy to in order to identify if a player has taken a stride forward versus just "seeing the ball well."

If all this information that none of us are privy to is needed for a call up, why are you just arguing with my view and not the others who want him called up? The White Sox haven't called him up. Wouldn't that suggest this information we cannot possibly have is saying don't call him up?

[Eminor3rd]

We'll agree to disagree because while you might not be able to predict the length of hot streaks, I do think there is a greater probability of a minor league callup experiencing immediate success at the major league level if he is coming in hot and confidence is high compared to struggling and confidence low.

 

I'm with you on the confidence component, but as I explained in the post above, the success that comes before a promotion needs to borne of real change, NOT a hot hand. Success and confidence will accompany both real change and a hot hand, but only the former is a good recipe for continued success after a promotion.

[Eminor3rd]

If all this information that none of us are privy to is needed for a call up, why are you just arguing with my view and not the others who want him called up? The White Sox haven't called him up. Wouldn't that suggest this information we cannot possibly have is saying don't call him up?

 

I picked your post because I wanted to argue the point of using a hot or cold hand to decide. I have no opinion on whether or not he's ready.

[Dick Allen]

We'll agree to disagree because while you might not be able to predict the length of hot streaks, I do think there is a greater probability of a minor league callup experiencing immediate success at the major league level if he is coming in hot and confidence is high compared to struggling and confidence low.

Exactly. He's hitting well for a reason. So his mechanics are probably really good, and the confidence. Like Flowers who was mentioned. Sure, the glasses may have made a physical difference in his hitting. But he's hitting around .500 since he put them on. Nobody's that good. He got a couple of hits, and suddenly he doesn't have 1000 things going through his mind when he steps into the box, and he hits. He'll be back to a bum soon enough, but the mental aspect is huge.