Realistic 2015 Lineup

[Dick Allen]

The Sox have lost 6 games when leading in the 9th inning. They have won 3 games when trailing in the 9th.

 

Make that a .500 record, and they are contending for a playoff birth.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

They very well might struggle, but there's that and there's producing what Leury has at the plate. Anyway, it sounds like that with both our arguments he's better off in the minors. You think he's in a situation where it's really difficult for him to improve, I think he's a liability at the major league level and for any slight chance of him making it should be in the minors, so don't we think the same thing?

 

And Saladino should be back in around mid-April.

Regular ABs would help him. To judge him based on what he's done and point out no improvement is just not fair. He was a decent offensive little player in AA and AAA, and the scouting report said he could develop into a wizard defensively.

 

It's hard to place judgement on young players in the major leagues. It's harder to judge them if they barely play.

[Jose Abreu]

I'm not saying if they add some bullpen guys right now they would compete. I'm saying if they had a better pen all year they more than likely wouldn't be 6.5 back from the WC. I think you could realistically say they could be 3.5 back if not closer, which to me is contending for the WC.

When you think about all the LOOGY situations Downs failed us in, it's possible. All the times he came in with two on, one out, and walks the guy or allows a double or something. We could easily be just a couple games back for the WC.

[beautox]

I think you are severely overestimating the value of Davidson, Rusney Castillo and Maeda. Comparing him to Anibal Sanchez...that dude has one of the best ERA's in baseball over the last 2-3 seasons. Expecting that out of an even more unknown Japanese pitcher is just a recipe for disaster.

I disagree, Davidson is still on pace to hit 25HR and while his other stats are depressed I can see there being a real interest in him because power is down across the game and he could possibly be a cornerstone for their organization in the wake of moving headley. Also Grandal is having a very down year because he is attempting to hit more home runs and mortgaging his batting eye for it, career low 12% walk rate career high 27% strike out rate and career high iso of .170.

 

At this stage of the game international free agents are quickly becoming less of an unknown. Castillo has played on all the biggest stages sans MLB and his stats in cuba transfer over very nicely and Maeda was the other ace of the '13WBC japanese team, everything about his scouting report screams a #3 just like Anibal Sanchez. Lastly between '10 and '14 which of Sanchez's years look like the outlier? he pitched out of his mind last year but hes a very solid middle of the rotation starter.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't see why we can't give Dunn a qualifying offer and then try HIM at shortstop.

[Jose Abreu]

I believe that even with a healthy Lindstrom and Jones this year, they are a few games better for sure. That puts them two games out of the WC instead of 5.

It's not the RH relievers that have failed us. Petricka and Putnam have been great. Webb has been good. Guerra has been OK. Belisario has not been very good, but he's really our only bad RH reliever. Sure, Lindstrom and Jones would help, but what we really needed early this year was a LOOGY who actually gets outs. Downs was terrible, Surkamp hasn't really gotten many chances- but regardless, we need another lefty in the bullpen.

[Feeky Magee]

Regular ABs would help him. To judge him based on what he's done and point out no improvement is just not fair. He was a decent offensive little player in AA and AAA, and the scouting report said he could develop into a wizard defensively.

 

It's hard to place judgement on young players in the major leagues. It's harder to judge them if they barely play.

He only had one stop where he was anything other than bad offensively and that was fueled by BABIP. He's also on pace for nearly 200 PA this year. That's not barely playing. Saladino is the better option next year once he's back and it's not even close.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I don't see why we can't give Dunn a qualifying offer and then try HIM at shortstop.

Why do you have to say these things?

 

Why?

 

If Marty34 ever comes back here then he & I will form a tag team & will fight you guys (you & wite) for real pro-wrestling style and you guys will have to lose it will be in the script.

Edited August 1, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[cabiness42]

It's not the RH relievers that have failed us. Petricka and Putnam have been great. Webb has been good. Guerra has been OK. Belisario has not been very good, but he's really our only bad RH reliever. Sure, Lindstrom and Jones would help, but what we really needed early this year was a LOOGY who actually gets outs. Downs was terrible, Surkamp hasn't really gotten many chances- but regardless, we need another lefty in the bullpen.

 

Jones has actually been better vs lefties in his career than righties. Not sure Robin would have ever used him that way, but it could have helped.

[Eminor3rd]

Why do you have to say these things?

 

Why?

 

If Marty34 ever comes back here then he & I will form a tag team & will fight you guys (you & wite) for real pro-wrestling style and you guys will have to lose it will be in the script.

 

I met Sgt. Slaughter last night at our game and he was nice and I bet he would help us! He is a big man and I bet he would stand up for the rights for other big men to play shortstop!

[Eminor3rd]

Amazing that people pencil in Viciedo and Flowers again but give up Ramirez like he's trash. Alexei's value won't be fully understood until he's gone.

 

Alexei isn't trash. He's a declining asset that has trade value and he plays the position the we're deepest in in the upper minors. He's a perfect candidate to be traded.

[The Ultimate Champion]

He only had one stop where he was anything other than bad offensively and that was fueled by BABIP. He's also on pace for nearly 200 PA this year. That's not barely playing. Saladino is the better option next year once he's back and it's not even close.

Leury's value on the diamond is not in his bat. It's the glove, the versatility, the speed. All that together gives you something you care about becasue in terms of defense and speed and versatility he's more valuable and more elite than most UT type players are. The bat, you are penciling in an 0fer everytime out. That is why he is kind of a prototypical NL contender's 25th piece.

 

Re: Saladino neither the bat nor the defense nor the speed makes your panties wet. He has a chance at being a MLB player but he has fewer tools than say a Jayson Nix or something. No one will really care about gaining or losing his services.

[Dick Allen]

He only had one stop where he was anything other than bad offensively and that was fueled by BABIP. He's also on pace for nearly 200 PA this year. That's not barely playing. Saladino is the better option next year once he's back and it's not even close.

He has had 112 PA in 109 games. That is barely 1 a game and a 166 plate appearance pace for a 162 game season.

 

That's barely playing.

 

Tossing Saladino? Really?

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Jake]

Shocked at the amount of people happy to put Leury Garcia back on the bench. What would he have to hit before the fact he can play a few positions and pinch-run is outweighed?

 

I actually wouldn't mind putting him back in the minors. He's got several intriguing tools, he's young, and he's never repeated a level. While I think he's a nice enough little bench player, he's not irreplaceable so I'd like for him to get a chance to turn his bat into something serviceable. He doesn't have to post an .850 OPS to be a major league regular.

 

He just has to not have a .500 OPS and strike out as much as Adam Dunn.

[Jose Abreu]

Why do you have to say these things?

 

Why?

 

If Marty34 ever comes back here then he & I will form a tag team & will fight you guys (you & wite) for real pro-wrestling style and you guys will have to lose it will be in the script.

What happened to Marty34?

[The Ultimate Champion]

I met Sgt. Slaughter last night at our game and he was nice and I bet he would help us! He is a big man and I bet he would stand up for the rights for other big men to play shortstop!

Sgt Slaughter is all skiunny now though. He's also Canadian. He could be your manager, that's fine, I will find Captain Lou Albano if he isn't dead yet (is he dead?) and he will have a parrot & Marty & I will use this parrot to kick your asses in the script!

[The Ultimate Champion]

What happened to Marty34?

Such things I do not know.

[Dick Allen]

Alexei isn't trash. He's a declining asset that has trade value and he plays the position the we're deepest in in the upper minors. He's a perfect candidate to be traded.

You have been saying he is a declining asset for a couple years. Eventually you will be correct, but he's a nice guy to have around now.

[Eminor3rd]

Sgt Slaughter is all skiunny now though. He's also Canadian. He could be your manager, that's fine, I will find Captain Lou Albano if he isn't dead yet (is he dead?) and he will have a parrot & Marty & I will use this parrot to kick your asses in the script!

 

He told me he was from Minnesota, so... wait, yeah I guess that's Canada.

 

He is still very large, though.

[Eminor3rd]

You have been saying he is a declining asset for a couple years. Eventually you will be correct, but he's a nice guy to have around now.

 

Again you misunderstand and make it sound like I have been falsely saying he's bad for years, which is not true. I love Alexei and have always been a champion for him.

 

He is good now, will be declining/have declined when we really need to have solid production from SS, in a year or two. Since we have a ton of guys ready to try the position, he has to go. If for no other reason than we need to get his replacement some ABs and development time. Also because we still have a lot of holes to fill and have to move someone to get talent back.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Jones has actually been better vs lefties in his career than righties. Not sure Robin would have ever used him that way, but it could have helped.

 

This. Lefties are hitting just .203 with a .629 OPS against Jones in his career. He's essentially a RHLOOGY.

[Feeky Magee]

Leury's value on the diamond is not in his bat. It's the glove, the versatility, the speed. All that together gives you something you care about becasue in terms of defense and speed and versatility he's more valuable and more elite than most UT type players are. The bat, you are penciling in an 0fer everytime out. That is why he is kind of a prototypical NL contender's 25th piece.

 

Re: Saladino neither the bat nor the defense nor the speed makes your panties wet. He has a chance at being a MLB player but he has fewer tools than say a Jayson Nix or something. No one will really care about gaining or losing his services.

Is Garcia's defence and baserunning better enough than Saladino's to justify the quite large difference in the bat? I don't think so. Saladino plays a cromulent shortstop, so I imagine he's fine elsewhere on the diamond. His speed has good reviews. And he can hit. And he's a good platoon candidate. That's a much better bench piece to me than someone who probably pinch-runs better and maybe has a slightly better glove (and Garcia's defence, particularly at second has actually been quite meh this year. I've liked him at third.)

 

He has had 112 PA in 109 games. That is barely 1 a game and a 166 plate appearance pace for a 162 game season.

 

That's barely playing.

Again, though we get there differently, it sounds like from both of our arguments he should be in the minors.

[Feeky Magee]

Who called Alexei trash? As far as I can make out, there's a couple of us advocating trading him to the Yankees for some really good prospects.

[Dick Allen]

Again you misunderstand and make it sound like I have been falsely saying he's bad for years, which is not true. I love Alexei and have always been a champion for him.

 

He is good now, will be declining/have declined when we really need to have solid production from SS, in a year or two. Since we have a ton of guys ready to try the position, he has to go. If for no other reason than we need to get his replacement some ABs and development time. Also because we still have a lot of holes to fill and have to move someone to get talent back.

Go back to your posts 2 years ago and last year. There is no way you thought he would be anywhere near as valuable this year.

 

He doesn't have to go. There aren't a ton of guys the White Sox have ready to try the position. Face it, if the Sox thought Semien was a SS, he'd be playing SS everyday. If they thought Sanchez was a SS, he wouldn't have been playing 2B the past few years. Odds are very long either is an everyday calibur major league SS. The White Sox have basically conceded that.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[The Ultimate Champion]

Is Garcia's defence and baserunning better enough than Saladino's to justify the quite large difference in the bat? I don't think so. Saladino plays a cromulent shortstop, so I imagine he's fine elsewhere on the diamond. His speed has good reviews. And he can hit. And he's a good platoon candidate. That's a much better bench piece to me than someone who probably pinch-runs better and maybe has a slightly better glove (and Garcia's defence, particularly at second has actually been quite meh this year. I've liked him at third.)

 

I think you're missing the larger view/point:

1) Leury has MLB defense at multiple positions, while Saladino does not

2) Leury has elite speed, while Saladino does not

3) Because of 1 + 2 Leury can be a PR for an MLB team as well as a late inning replacement and spot starter for an MLB team defensively, while Saladino really cannot

4) In terms of bat Leury has no bat whatsoever, but Saladino's bat is fringey

 

Is Saladino's fringey bat enough to make him more valuable to an MLB team than Leury? No, because these players exist absolutely everywhere. Saladino really has a very small chance of playing in the Majors, and if he does, he will have to be a Keppinger type and hit his way into the picture. Chris Getz by comparison was a much better prospect than Saladino & look at how long he stuck around. Pablo Ozuna was a SS coming up, look at how long he stuck around, and Pablo was long ago also a much better prospect than Saladino & better than Getz by quite a bit as well.

 

The general rule of thumb is that whatever the prospect is, he'll probably be a whole lot lesser at the MLB level than the "trajectory" indicated by his MiLB performance. Most of the tools you read about pretty much define the player and what he is and could be, and the difference is made up "between the ears" as Hawk would say, ie can he make the adjustments, is he mentally capable of dealing with failure, etc. In Saladino's case the tools aren't really there unlike Leury, and if he makes himself an MLB career he will have to do it by overachieving with the bat and so on.

 

You just can't expect that, and MiLB numbers you should ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS take with a grain of salt. Just because a player performs well against a bunch of guys who will never ever even in their wildest dreams sniff the MLB level doesn't mean he has a shot at dealing with the MLB game and MLB pitching specifically. MLB pitching is smarts/experience + stuff most of the time with each player having 2-4 pitches he can throw over for a strike, and in the minors it's just one or the other mostly, stuff (1 pitch usually, maybe a second) OR smarts/experience. You get a guy with a big fastball who can't throw good strikes and has a s***ty secondary offering or an Axelrod or something with a very limited arm but who knows how to attack a hitter's vulnerabilities. The MLB level - just think of how much money is in the game as a clue to how much more sophisiticated the MLB level is strategically vs. the minors (Robin the Genius notwithstanding).