Realistic 2015 Lineup

[Dick Allen]

Even ignoring the whole minor-league track record thing which I talked about extensively, 73 wRC+ is slightly more than 22

Yes, but it isn't very good.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

In 2012 both Leury and Saladino even though Saladino is 2 years older played in AA. Leury's wRC+ was 104, Saladino's 99. Last year Leury put up an 89 in AAA. Saladino repeated AA and put up an 87.

 

I AM SHOCKED YOU MISSED THIS.

 

BTW, if wRC+ in the minor leagues is really the end all, the White Sox and the rest of baseball are really missing the boat on Jordan Danks.

 

There is a tool difference here that the Sox are exploiting for specific situations. #1, the kid is a plus defender at multiple positions, including the OF. He has great range, and he has a surprisingly good arm for a guy his size. #2 he is one of the fastest runners in all of baseball. The Sox have used his baserunning skills in a lot of situations. To be 10/11 in steals and barely having played this season is kind of amazing. Has he hit? No he hasn't, but that isn't why he is here. He is the bench equivilant of a LOOGY. He has a couple of very specific roles, and he is really damned good at them. No one in the entire organization can do for the White Sox what Leury Garcia is doing right now.

[Feeky Magee]

Yes, but it isn't very good.

I have a lot more faith in the guy who put up 167 at age-appropriate AA and then 73 in the majors than 104 and 22 respectively. Also Marcus has 131, 123 and 113 at other stops. That's a strong history of being a well above-average hitter for the level. Leury has practically nothing else. What Semien has done in the minors and then initially in the majors is similar-ish to Adam Eaton. I don't doubt Leury would improve with more at-bats but he's starting from such a low base, he has an enormous mountain to climb.

 

Anyway, if you think he has potential to be a productive super-utility player, shouldn't he be in the minors anyway, considering his conditions have been so difficult to do anything with, according to you?

[witesoxfan]

Yes, but not in the major leagues and he has more plate appearances than Leury.

 

This is what I get for sticking my nose in places it doesn't belong.

 

I am going to butt out. I like Leury and I think his skill set plays well off the bench. I do wish he'd get a few more opportunities at SS.

[Eminor3rd]

Why, if you are trying to win, do you trade a reasonably priced SS for some question marks and then really have to be lucky to get half the performance out of his replacement?

 

Two reasons:

 

1. Your team sucks and you cannot create talent out of thin air. You need to trade assets to get assets back.

2. There is no other position on the team where we have a better chance of someone working in our system as soon as next year

 

He had a 1.9 WAR in 2012, 3.2 WAR in 2013 and so far a 2.3 WAR in 2014. He doesn't appear to be slowing down too much or anywhere near being overpaid.

 

So are you going to pretend that guys don't tend to get worse as they approach their mid-30's?

 

The not getting to the playoffs even with his contribution is pretty weak as well. Chris Sale hasn't made the playoffs. Neither has Abreu. Where do you draw the line on that argument?

 

What are you even talking about here? I said the team isn't good enough to make the playoffs with him now, meaning they need to think about the future.

[Jose Abreu]

How long is it until Hahn brings in Jim Johnson?

My guess is a week, tops

[Feeky Magee]

There is a tool difference here that the Sox are exploiting for specific situations. #1, the kid is a plus defender at multiple positions, including the OF. He has great range, and he has a surprisingly good arm for a guy his size. #2 he is one of the fastest runners in all of baseball. The Sox have used his baserunning skills in a lot of situations. To be 10/11 in steals and barely having played this season is kind of amazing. Has he hit? No he hasn't, but that isn't why he is here. He is the bench equivilant of a LOOGY. He has a couple of very specific roles, and he is really damned good at them. No one in the entire organization can do for the White Sox what Leury Garcia is doing right now.

Hitting .184/.220/.243 in 112 PA totally outweighs what he's done on the bases and with the glove. As for defence, he's been relatively disappointing at 2B from what I can recall, particularly given his reputation. I've liked him at third. If you're arguing he can do better at the plate then fair enough, I disagree, but at least it's a debate. But I don't think anyone can claim with a straight face he's been of positive value for the White Sox in 2014.

[southsider2k5]

Hitting .184/.220/.243 in 112 PA totally outweighs what he's done on the bases and with the glove. As for defence, he's been relatively disappointing at 2B from what I can recall, particularly given his reputation. I've liked him at third. If you're arguing he can do better at the plate then fair enough, I disagree, but at least it's a debate. But I don't think anyone can claim with a straight face he's been of positive value for the White Sox in 2014.

 

I'm arguing that in the situations he has been plugged into, no one in the organization could have given more than Garcia has. We have no better pinch runner. We have no better utility defender, especially one that plays all of the positions he can play. While someone else would probably have a better bat, no one else could fill the situational roles that he has filled.

 

Again, it is the pitching equivalent of taking any pitchers over all numbers, and saying they would be better than a particular LOOGY or specific relief role because of those overall numbers. They aren't asking for an overall role. They are asking Leury to play a very specific role off of the bench, that one else in the entire organization can do better than he can. To equate it to the NBA, he is a 3 point or defensive specialist. You don't look at their PPG to see if they are helping the team, you look to see what they are doing in that specific role. To equate it to the NFL, he is a 3rd down rusher. To equate it to hockey, he is a shootout specialist.

[Feeky Magee]

I'm arguing that in the situations he has been plugged into, no one in the organization could have given more than Garcia has. We have no better pinch runner. We have no better utility defender, especially one that plays all of the positions he can play. While someone else would probably have a better bat, no one else could fill the situational roles that he has filled.

 

Again, it is the pitching equivalent of taking any pitchers over all numbers, and saying they would be better than a particular LOOGY or specific relief role because of those overall numbers. They aren't asking for an overall role. They are asking Leury to play a very specific role off of the bench, that one else in the entire organization can do better than he can. To equate it to the NBA, he is a 3 point or defensive specialist. You don't look at their PPG to see if they are helping the team, you look to see what they are doing in that specific role. To equate it to the NFL, he is a 3rd down rusher. To equate it to hockey, he is a shootout specialist.

I'd much rather a bench piece that can hit at least a bit, platoon, be decent defensively and run a bit rather than absolutely cannot hit, cannot platoon, be good defensively and really good pinch-running. There's only so much value you can get from pinch-running.

[Jake]

Eminor3d, when you say SS is the position our system is most likely to be able to replace...are you intentionally leaving out 2B? Because it's 2B

[southsider2k5]

I'd much rather a bench piece that can hit at least a bit, platoon, be decent defensively and run a bit rather than absolutely cannot hit, cannot platoon, be good defensively and really good pinch-running. There's only so much value you can get from pinch-running.

 

The thing is we don't have one guy who was ready for the majors, and can do all of those things. We have some guys who can do one of those things, maybe two. None of them were ready to be in the majors in spring training. I don't think any of them are even ready to be major leaguers now.

 

And if you think of the job that Garcia is paid to do, they don't care about platoons and the like. Robin likes he starters to start and play. When he goes to the bench, it is for a guy in a specific situation. More often than not, that situation is either pinch running, or it is a defensive replacement. He doesn't do a lot of platooning, or playing his bench. He wants a pinch runner for PK/JA/AD when they get on in the 9th in a tie game. He wants a plus defender to put at 3B for Conor. He wants an extra OF in case he has to lift two OF's for some reason.

[Eminor3rd]

Eminor3d, when you say SS is the position our system is most likely to be able to replace...are you intentionally leaving out 2B? Because it's 2B

 

Yeah, you're right. I guess I mean "middle infield." I'd rather replace Beckham than Alexei, but Alexei is the subject because he can actually be traded.

[Feeky Magee]

The thing is we don't have one guy who was ready for the majors, and can do all of those things. We have some guys who can do one of those things, maybe two. None of them were ready to be in the majors in spring training. I don't think any of them are even ready to be major leaguers now.

 

And if you think of the job that Garcia is paid to do, they don't care about platoons and the like. Robin likes he starters to start and play. When he goes to the bench, it is for a guy in a specific situation. More often than not, that situation is either pinch running, or it is a defensive replacement. He doesn't do a lot of platooning, or playing his bench. He wants a pinch runner for PK/JA/AD when they get on in the 9th in a tie game. He wants a plus defender to put at 3B for Conor. He wants an extra OF in case he has to lift two OF's for some reason.

If they don't, they should. There's a lot more value to be gained from platooning than pinch-running.

[The Ultimate Champion]

As it stands right now I would say this:

 

Saladino and Leury could each play 150 games in AAA with whatever teams, and Saladino in the offensive stats department looks like the better player.

 

However in the Majors Leury has one role he can fill and Saladino has zero. Neither player would get in 150 games, in fact, 150 ABs might even be pushing it. And even figuring 150 ABs, the difference in Saladino's bat over Leury's probably doesn't come close to accounting for the defensive versatility and speed advantages Leury provides.

 

Again, the bat doesn't matter with Leury. That's not why he is here. Re: Saladino, the bat seems to be his biggest shot at a career, and yet he's already behind Semien, Sanchez, Johnson, Tim Anderson at least on the depth chart & also behind Leury on the UT depth chart. Even if the Sox trade Leury somewhere, it's very possible (and most likely IMO) that they'd bring in a few non-roster invites to fight Saladino for a UT role rather than just put him on the team.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If they don't, they should. There's a lot more value to be gained from platooning than pinch-running.

I think that is a very bold statement to make at best. It ignores so much in the way of context. Each roster has its own strengths and weaknesses based on its construction. Currently we are a DH-heavy, unathletic team pretty low on speed and without Leury there we don't have s*** for backup defense on the IF. Leury's presence adds a little bit extra to a lot of areas where we need help. This, basically, is what a bench is supposed to be for.

[caulfield12]

 

1) Brandon Moss isn't going to be traded by the A's, just because Cespedes was...

 

2) Those trade ideas for Heyward and Danks.....Viciedo/Anderson, etc., won't work. And buying Miller at his highest value, not usually the best idea for the bullpen. In fact, it seems the Orioles panicked and overpaid when they had some legit options there already, so all they ended up doing was giving a divisional rival a guy who might end up starting against them for 6+ years.

 

And why would we want a player in Heyward who also strikes out a ton and we're going to mightily struggle to control after 2015, anyway...we're not quite in the same situation as the Red Sox, where we can trade a basket of assets for an immediate payoff.

 

We need those players who will help us the most 2016-18.

 

3) This board isn't going to be very enjoyable in the off-season if they bring Adam Dunn back, no matter what the price.

[caulfield12]

What is the White Sox record when tied going into the 7th, 8th and 9th innings?

 

It has to be one of the worst in baseball. We pretty much agreed a better bullpen would have us around 3 games over .500. They've lost 6 games they were leading in the 9th and come back to win 3 times, but what's our record in tie games? Feels like we have had a ton of those swing against us in the 7th-9th, especially on the road (and yes, this tends to happen more, as closers are used more frequently to preserve tie games at home in hopes the offense will mount a quick assault to win in the bottom half of a late inning.)

[2nd_city_saint787]

1) Brandon Moss isn't going to be traded by the A's, just because Cespedes was...

 

2) Those trade ideas for Heyward and Danks.....Viciedo/Anderson, etc., won't work. And buying Miller at his highest value, not usually the best idea for the bullpen. In fact, it seems the Orioles panicked and overpaid when they had some legit options there already, so all they ended up doing was giving a divisional rival a guy who might end up starting against them for 6+ years.

 

And why would we want a player in Heyward who also strikes out a ton and we're going to mightily struggle to control after 2015, anyway...we're not quite in the same situation as the Red Sox, where we can trade a basket of assets for an immediate payoff.

 

We need those players who will help us the most 2016-18.

 

3) This board isn't going to be very enjoyable in the off-season if they bring Adam Dunn back, no matter what the price.

 

I disagree. I think it'd be fantastic. As a Dunn fan I've come to enjoy the Dunn hate in a Sharknado, "this is awful but I can't stop watching", kinda way.

[Jake]

Saladino is a good defensive player. He's very much competent at SS and probably well above average at 2B. He's also not slow. Is he a base stealing specialist? No. But don't assume a player is useless as a pinch runner just because he doesn't have 80 speed.

[Feeky Magee]

However in the Majors Leury has one role he can fill and Saladino has zero. Neither player would get in 150 games, in fact, 150 ABs might even be pushing it. And even figuring 150 ABs, the difference in Saladino's bat over Leury's probably doesn't come close to accounting for the defensive versatility and speed advantages Leury provides.

That's just flat-out wrong. I've said earlier that Saladino is cromulent at SS and probably above average elsewhere. He can also pinch-run. The point is that his bat is so much better than Leury that even if you think Leury edges him on defence (probably) and speed (definitely), the bat more than makes up for it. There's just no way to hit with a 20 wRC+ at the majors and provide positive value.

[Eminor3rd]

That's just flat-out wrong. I've said earlier that Saladino is cromulent at SS and probably above average elsewhere. He can also pinch-run. The point is that his bat is so much better than Leury that even if you think Leury edges him on defence (probably) and speed (definitely), the bat more than makes up for it. There's just no way to hit with a 20 wRC+ at the majors and provide positive value.

 

Sure there is! You just have to be a pitcher.

 

Hey, wait.... Leury pitched once!

[southsider2k5]

That's just flat-out wrong. I've said earlier that Saladino is cromulent at SS and probably above average elsewhere. He can also pinch-run. The point is that his bat is so much better than Leury that even if you think Leury edges him on defence (probably) and speed (definitely), the bat more than makes up for it. There's just no way to hit with a 20 wRC+ at the majors and provide positive value.

 

Except that isn't Garcia's main job. His job is to be really good at defense and speed.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Well I sure hope you guys are right about Tyler Saladino. I don't find him exciting in the least or a viable option anywhere, but of course I hope the best for all our prospects because the more value we have to work with the better we will be. Personally I wouldn't call him a bum or anything but he's the type of prospect IMO that you just completely forget about & if he makes it, terrific, if not, well... to be expected.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Except that isn't Garcia's main job. His job is to be really good at defense and speed.

Yep.

 

And people can think it's unnecessary, wrong, whatever... but again, look at the way we are constructed and compare that to what Leury brings. What is a bench for?

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

As it stands right now I would say this:

 

Saladino and Leury could each play 150 games in AAA with whatever teams, and Saladino in the offensive stats department looks like the better player.

 

However in the Majors Leury has one role he can fill and Saladino has zero. Neither player would get in 150 games, in fact, 150 ABs might even be pushing it. And even figuring 150 ABs, the difference in Saladino's bat over Leury's probably doesn't come close to accounting for the defensive versatility and speed advantages Leury provides.

 

Again, the bat doesn't matter with Leury. That's not why he is here. Re: Saladino, the bat seems to be his biggest shot at a career, and yet he's already behind Semien, Sanchez, Johnson, Tim Anderson at least on the depth chart & also behind Leury on the UT depth chart. Even if the Sox trade Leury somewhere, it's very possible (and most likely IMO) that they'd bring in a few non-roster invites to fight Saladino for a UT role rather than just put him on the team.

 

Don't forget, Saladino is now coming back from TJ, so that is going to push him back even more now. How much faster (if this is even correct) does a position player return from TJ? I can't imagine it is quite as long as a pitcher because they aren't pitching.