FutureSox Top 25 Prospects List - Midseason

[Chisoxfn]

Yeah, I am glad too. It's hard to sit here and say that Johnson would have dropped such a great deal and Davidson wouldn't even though both have had incredibly disappointing years, but Johnson's velocity is down like 2-3 MPH from last year and his command is way worse.

Both of them dropped significantly from my personal opening day rankings. To be frank, while I listed Davidson in the top 10, I struggle even with that. I have zero faith in him panning out. That lack of faith is largely driven by the Sox inability to fix any of our young position players issues around strikeouts.

[GreenSox]

Interesting list.

Wendelkin should be close to the top 25.

[NorthSideSox72]

Interesting list.

Wendelkin should be close to the top 25.

Wendelken was one of the names that fell short but wasn't far out from the T25.

 

[Feeky Magee]

I know Eric Johnson has graduated, but I was wondering where in the top 25 you all thought he would rank if he was still eligible after this season. Particularly in relationship to Adams/Montas/Danish.

 

Thanks

Interesting question. Below all three for me.

[NorthSideSox72]

Full T25 goes up tomorrow morning. I'll update the thread and OP then. That will also have a list of the guys who received votes but fell short of the list (there are a lot of those this year for some reason).

 

[witesoxfan]

Full T25 goes up tomorrow morning. I'll update the thread and OP then. That will also have a list of the guys who received votes but fell short of the list (there are a lot of those this year for some reason).

 

That reason is because the system is a lot deeper than it's been in the past.

[winninguglyin83]

Too soon to include Brett Austin or Jake Peter?

[NorthSideSox72]

Too soon to include Brett Austin or Jake Peter?

Maybe. You'll see the list of just-missed very soon, but both of those guys' names came up in discussion. Austin got a few votes on people

s' T30's, and I think someone had Jake Peter at the back end of theirs but then made a last minute change.

 

Thing is, as wite said above, there is significantly more depth in that lower end than I can ever remember seeing. There are guys I'd consider interesting all the way down to about 40, maybe even slightly more that.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Here it is - the full Midseason Top 25 Prospects list by FutureSox.

 

Let's hear your thoughts! And of course, feel free to spread the link around if you see fit.

 

[witesoxfan]

I think the biggest point of contention, by far, on this list is going to be Davidson. I think he'll remain right around this area for the next list too (depending on who the Sox bring in and ship out), but a lot of that depends on how he handles the end of the season, any fall instructs, and then any possible winter leagues as well.

[Eminor3rd]

Here it is - the full Midseason Top 25 Prospects list by FutureSox.

 

Let's hear your thoughts! And of course, feel free to spread the link around if you see fit.

 

This is a really, really good list with really, really good write-ups.

 

Only things I'd disagree with are: Adolfo's ranking seems very aggressive, Engel's ranking seems a bit low. I'm getting more comfortable with seeing Davidson below Montas and Adams, but I think it's spot on that he's still above Danish.

 

Good list, guys. Thanks

[Buehrle>Wood]

General thoughts right now.

 

 

Too high:

 

Spencer Adams- Top 5 is a stretch for me for a high schooler in front of guys putting up some gaudy minor league stats.

 

Francellis Montas- We only have ten starts to go by when it comes to being impressed.

 

Matt Davidson- With so many guys having great seasons I wouldn't have been surprised to see him at ten or lower

 

Micker Adolfo- Maybe not too high, maybe not too low but right now he's a crap shoot prospect who hasn't done anything in limited time.

 

Cleulius Rondon- He will never make the majors with his current bat. He makes way too many errors as well for supposedly being a plus glove. I know MiL errors don't matter much but when it's you're one tool you better be Rey Ordonez.

 

 

Too low:

 

Tyler Danish- the second best pitching prospect in my mind with how he's dominated every level at his age aside from a 10 inning adjustment.

 

Carlos Sanchez- Seems like a very high floor player. Hope we see him again soon.

 

Trey Michalczewski- . I think he's a top 10 prospect now

 

Kevin Smith- A catcher destroying the ball and can be up by next year? Sign me up.

 

 

 

Nice to see Jace Fry in there as well. Really think he's going to be a good one for us.

 

 

[Quin]

General thoughts right now.

 

 

Too high:

 

Spencer Adams- Top 5 is a stretch for me for a high schooler in front of guys putting up some gaudy minor league stats.

 

Francellis Montas- We only have ten starts to go by when it comes to being impressed.

 

Matt Davidson- With so many guys having great seasons I wouldn't have been surprised to see him at ten or lower

 

Micker Adolfo- Maybe not too high, maybe not too low but right now he's a crap shoot prospect who hasn't done anything in limited time.

 

Cleulius Rondon- He will never make the majors with his current bat. He makes way too many errors as well for supposedly being a plus glove. I know MiL errors don't matter much but when it's you're one tool you better be Rey Ordonez.

 

 

Too low:

 

Tyler Danish- the second best pitching prospect in my mind with how he's dominated every level at his age aside from a 10 inning adjustment.

 

Carlos Sanchez- Seems like a very high floor player. Hope we see him again soon.

 

Trey Michalczewski- . I think he's a top 10 prospect now

 

Kevin Smith- A catcher destroying the ball and can be up by next year? Sign me up.

 

 

 

Nice to see Jace Fry in there as well. Really think he's going to be a good one for us.

 

Rondon might make more errors because he gets to more balls.

 

[witesoxfan]

General thoughts right now.

 

 

Too high:

 

Spencer Adams- Top 5 is a stretch for me for a high schooler in front of guys putting up some gaudy minor league stats.

 

Francellis Montas- We only have ten starts to go by when it comes to being impressed.

 

Matt Davidson- With so many guys having great seasons I wouldn't have been surprised to see him at ten or lower

 

Micker Adolfo- Maybe not too high, maybe not too low but right now he's a crap shoot prospect who hasn't done anything in limited time.

 

Cleulius Rondon- He will never make the majors with his current bat. He makes way too many errors as well for supposedly being a plus glove. I know MiL errors don't matter much but when it's you're one tool you better be Rey Ordonez.

 

 

Too low:

 

Tyler Danish- the second best pitching prospect in my mind with how he's dominated every level at his age aside from a 10 inning adjustment.

 

Carlos Sanchez- Seems like a very high floor player. Hope we see him again soon.

 

Trey Michalczewski- . I think he's a top 10 prospect now

 

Kevin Smith- A catcher destroying the ball and can be up by next year? Sign me up.

 

 

 

Nice to see Jace Fry in there as well. Really think he's going to be a good one for us.

 

-Adams was a first round talent that fell, and we judged him as such. And, even if it's the AZL, he's putting up gaudy minor league numbers too - a K/BB of 20, K/9 of 12.6, and HR/9 of 0.9 are incredible. He's given up hits but that means very, very little to me personally in the AZL due to how inexperienced those fielders are.

-Adolfo has hit for very good power as a 17 year old and at this point, that's what we wanted to see. Reports are that he has incredible measurables and you want to see that right way. As he improves and refines his swing, his consistency should improve as well.

-By all accounts, Rondon's glove IS that good. He's also hit .252/.320/.360/.680 at A+ as a 20 year old, which to me is really encouraging. Rondon's a guy that's really only going to have to hit about .250 to have really positive value at the MLB level.

-Regarding Trey, I'm really excited about him too, but his overall line is still just .273/.352/.439/.790 with a 3 K/BB and a 27.8% K rate. There is a lot of improvement needed there, but it has been an encouraging season thus far.

 

I will follow up and say that I won't disagree if you feel that Danish is the #2 pitching prospect. Regarding the pitching prospects, it seems to me we have:

 

1. Rodon

 

2a. Adams

2b. Montas

2c. Danish

 

3. Everybody else

[NorthSideSox72]

This is a really, really good list with really, really good write-ups.

 

Only things I'd disagree with are: Adolfo's ranking seems very aggressive, Engel's ranking seems a bit low. I'm getting more comfortable with seeing Davidson below Montas and Adams, but I think it's spot on that he's still above Danish.

 

Good list, guys. Thanks

 

Thanks, we really like doing the twice-annual rankings. Lots of good discussion.

 

-Adams was a first round talent that fell, and we judged him as such. And, even if it's the AZL, he's putting up gaudy minor league numbers too - a K/BB of 20, K/9 of 12.6, and HR/9 of 0.9 are incredible. He's given up hits but that means very, very little to me personally in the AZL due to how inexperienced those fielders are.

-Adolfo has hit for very good power as a 17 year old and at this point, that's what we wanted to see. Reports are that he has incredible measurables and you want to see that right way. As he improves and refines his swing, his consistency should improve as well.

-By all accounts, Rondon's glove IS that good. He's also hit .252/.320/.360/.680 at A+ as a 20 year old, which to me is really encouraging. Rondon's a guy that's really only going to have to hit about .250 to have really positive value at the MLB level.

-Regarding Trey, I'm really excited about him too, but his overall line is still just .273/.352/.439/.790 with a 3 K/BB and a 27.8% K rate. There is a lot of improvement needed there, but it has been an encouraging season thus far.

 

I will follow up and say that I won't disagree if you feel that Danish is the #2 pitching prospect. Regarding the pitching prospects, it seems to me we have:

 

1. Rodon

 

2a. Adams

2b. Montas

2c. Danish

 

3. Everybody else

 

I'll add two more responses.

 

Smith: I personally had him slightly higher than the final list, but not a LOT higher. He's well behind the age curve, the org is keeping him behind Phegley, and we have only sporadic and incomplete reports on his defense. I like him more than many, but he needs to hit in AAA (hopefully this year) and we need some idea how he his behind the plate (beyond the few stats available and a couple scattered reports).

 

Adams: He jumped a few slots on my list because of the scouting reports we are seeing of him in AZL. He's 18 and people are putting CURRENT 6-grade marks on two of his breaking pitches, and he has a late-tailing mid-90's fastball.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Not much of a prospect guy but what exactly separates Micah at 4 from Sanchez at 9? If anything I'd reverse the order. Sanchez is younger, can actually handle 2B now, and might project as a SS.

 

Micah seems like a guy without a position to me. If he can't handle 2B, with that bat, his options are 3B and CF and I don't think he's going to supplant Conor or Eaton anytime soon.

 

We'll see.

[southsider2k5]

Not much of a prospect guy but what exactly separates Micah at 4 from Sanchez at 9? If anything I'd reverse the order. Sanchez is younger, can actually handle 2B now, and might project as a SS.

 

Micah seems like a guy without a position to me. If he can't handle 2B, with that bat, his options are 3B and CF and I don't think he's going to supplant Conor or Eaton anytime soon.

 

We'll see.

 

Johnson has 75/80 speed. Sanchez has no plus tools. From what I understand, their hit tools are very similar, as are their power tools. If Johnson is a guy who shows he can get on base 35-40% of the time, he will steal 50 bases a year. He is a guy you make room for. Sanchez might hit .300, but it will be an empty .300. There will be no power or speed to speak of.

[chitownsportsfan]

Johnson has 75/80 speed. Sanchez has no plus tools. From what I understand, their hit tools are very similar, as are their power tools. If Johnson is a guy who shows he can get on base 35-40% of the time, he will steal 50 bases a year. He is a guy you make room for. Sanchez might hit .300, but it will be an empty .300. There will be no power or speed to speak of.

 

Micah is going to get the bat knocked out of his hands. His absolute best case IMO is decent defensive 2B that hits 270/330/380 and steals 40 bags. That's a 2 WAR player.

 

Sanchez's upside is higher IMO. I'm just skeptical of guys whose best tool is speed. Speed is great, but you gotta get on base first and catch the ball when you get to it. Throw in the fact that Sanchez is a year younger and it's even clearer imo.

 

I'm not really knocking the rankings but some of the scouting logic that goes into them seems outdated imo. Getting on base is a tool and so is locking down a defensive position.

Edited August 7, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[southsider2k5]

Micah is going to get the bat knocked out of his hands. His absolute best case IMO is decent defensive 2B that hits 270/330/380 and steals 40 bags. That's a 2 WAR player.

 

Sanchez's upside is higher IMO. I'm just skeptical of guys whose best tool is speed. Speed is great, but you gotta get on base first and catch the ball when you get to it. Throw in the fact that Sanchez is a year younger and it's even clearer imo.

 

I'm not really knocking the rankings but some of the scouting logic that goes into them seems outdated imo. Getting on base is a tool and so is locking down a defensive position.

 

The two players will be on base at around the same rate, from what I have seen. I think that is a wash. The differences are defense, which can be taught, and speed, which can't.

[cabiness42]

I see Sanchez as a high-floor guy. He seems at worst to be a lock to be a Leury Garcia with a better bat, with at least a chance that he hits well enough to start at a middle infield position.

 

Johnson is a guy who, with his speed, can be an indispensable part of a lineup if he can maintain an OBP over .360 in order to use that speed. But he could also be a bust because he doesn't seem to be strong enough defensively to have utility guy as a backup plan.

[royoung]

The two players will be on base at around the same rate, from what I have seen. I think that is a wash. The differences are defense, which can be taught, and speed, which can't.

 

If defense isn't such a huge factor why is Rondon on this list when he is a .224/.307/.291 career hitter? I'm being a smart ass of course, but I tend to agree there isn't that much difference between Johnson and Sanchez and actually personally value Sanchez more. Sanchez has been across the board better than Johnson this year in Charlotte.

 

Comparing their 2014 in Charlotte

 

Sanchez: .302/.358/.423, 16 of 19 on SB's

 

Johnson: .291/.335/.388, 20 of 32 of SB's (counting Birmingham SB/CS #'s as well)

 

This is a relatively small sample size, but I think people are unfairly judging Sanchez off his awful 2013 which was completely the Sox fault in rushing him up to Charlotte at age 21.

Edited August 7, 2014 by southside hitman

[Y2Jimmy0]

General thoughts right now.

 

 

Too high:

 

Spencer Adams- Top 5 is a stretch for me for a high schooler in front of guys putting up some gaudy minor league stats.

 

Francellis Montas- We only have ten starts to go by when it comes to being impressed.

 

Matt Davidson- With so many guys having great seasons I wouldn't have been surprised to see him at ten or lower

 

Micker Adolfo- Maybe not too high, maybe not too low but right now he's a crap shoot prospect who hasn't done anything in limited time.

 

Cleulius Rondon- He will never make the majors with his current bat. He makes way too many errors as well for supposedly being a plus glove. I know MiL errors don't matter much but when it's you're one tool you better be Rey Ordonez.

 

 

Too low:

 

Tyler Danish- the second best pitching prospect in my mind with how he's dominated every level at his age aside from a 10 inning adjustment.

 

Carlos Sanchez- Seems like a very high floor player. Hope we see him again soon.

 

Trey Michalczewski- . I think he's a top 10 prospect now

 

Kevin Smith- A catcher destroying the ball and can be up by next year? Sign me up.

 

 

 

Nice to see Jace Fry in there as well. Really think he's going to be a good one for us.

 

First of all, everyone I have talked to has said that Rondon's defense is so good that he will be a big leaguer if he hits over the Mendoza Line. Rondon is in the perfect spot. You also need to not scout the stat line at times and weigh production against skills and promise. Adolfo can be a superstar therefore he is ranked where he is. Davidson is having a terrible year but will still end the year with 20+ homers at 3B with a good BB%. Spencer Adams and Francellis Montas both project as front of the rotation starters (#2 probably). If the Sox were picking in the 20's this year and took Adams in round 1, he'd be a top 5 prospect in the system, therefore he still should be. I am a fan of Danish and Michalczewski as well. Overall, I think the list was very fair and well done.

[witesoxfan]

Just from reading scouting reports and looking at numbers previously, Johnson seems to have a bit more power and much, much better speed, leading me to believe he is a more athletic overall individual. I've also seen reports (though none this season) that Sanchez has gained bad weight in the past and been slower and more lethargic - I think there's some reason to believe that was partially to blame for his lackluster year in 2013 on top of being overly challenged.

 

That athleticism is what led me to putting Johnson over Sanchez.

 

That said, it's not a stretch to say Sanchez is a better prospect than Johnson right now. It's all based upon what people feel.

[witesoxfan]

If defense isn't such a huge factor why is Rondon on this list when he is a .224/.307/.291 career hitter? I'm being a smart ass of course, but I tend to agree there isn't that much difference between Johnson and Sanchez and actually personally value Sanchez more. Sanchez has been across the board better than Johnson this year in Charlotte.

 

Comparing their 2014 in Charlotte

 

Sanchez: .302/.358/.423, 16 of 19 on SB's

 

Johnson: .291/.335/.388, 20 of 32 of SB's (counting Birmingham SB/CS #'s as well)

 

This is a relatively small sample size, but I think people are unfairly judging Sanchez off his awful 2013 which was completely the Sox fault in rushing him up to Charlotte at age 21.

 

As suggested, I don't believe Sanchez got himself into the best shape last year either. I'm making assumptions here, but my gut says that he took for granted his success and didn't work as hard heading into last season. Having seen AAA pitching previously and working a bit harder, you see the results you do.

[chitownsportsfan]

If defense isn't such a huge factor why is Rondon on this list when he is a .224/.307/.291 career hitter? I'm being a smart ass of course, but I tend to agree there isn't that much difference between Johnson and Sanchez and actually personally value Sanchez more. Sanchez has been across the board better than Johnson this year in Charlotte.

 

Comparing their 2014 in Charlotte

 

Sanchez: .302/.358/.423, 16 of 19 on SB's

 

Johnson: .291/.335/.388, 20 of 32 of SB's (counting Birmingham SB/CS #'s as well)

 

This is a relatively small sample size, but I think people are unfairly judging Sanchez off his awful 2013 which was completely the Sox fault in rushing him up to Charlotte at age 21.

 

These are pretty much my thoughts. I expect him to maintain a fairly high OBP in MLB based on what he's done in MilB. He taken his walks with an acceptable level of strikeouts. That will translate imo.

 

From what I've read Rondon is a special defensive SS, talking Andreton Simmons level. You don't have to hit much over your weight to have value if that's the case.