FutureSox Top 25 Prospects List - Midseason

[fathom]

I think Hawkins is rated too high at 3, as Montas would be higher on my list and Danish might also. Looking over Hawkins' splits, and one shocking stat is how bad he has been against LHP this year: 193/294/303

 

Another thing that concerns me a bit about Hawkins is that for as much power as he has, it hasn't resulted in a significant amount of home runs. He's going to need to get his HR total into the high 20s/low 30s for me to get optimistic about that tool playing up. Also, the fact that the scouting experts that saw Hawkins had generally nothing positive to say about his in-game ability makes me lower on him than most.

[oldsox]

Where did you have Hawkins after the year he had last year? Hawkins has rebounded a little bit this year. This is Davidson's first bad year in 6 minor league seasons and a brief MLB stint.

You're right about Hawkins. He has rebounded a little bit, as you said. He's hitting around .250, not as many strikeouts, decent extra base hit numbers, good speed, -- he has improved. It'll be interesting to see how he handles AA next year. I don't know what that has to do with my placing Davidson in the bottom half of the top 25. But you said it -- 6, count 'em 6 seasons in pro ball. That's a lot of experience to have this bad of a year.

 

It's not out of the question to see both Davidson and Ravelo as teammates next year at Charlotte. Who do you think will have better numbers? I say Ravelo, who is younger and a better prospect IMO.

[ILMOU]

You're right about Hawkins. He has rebounded a little bit, as you said. He's hitting around .250, not as many strikeouts, decent extra base hit numbers, good speed, -- he has improved. It'll be interesting to see how he handles AA next year. I don't know what that has to do with my placing Davidson in the bottom half of the top 25. But you said it -- 6, count 'em 6 seasons in pro ball. That's a lot of experience to have this bad of a year.

 

It's not out of the question to see both Davidson and Ravelo as teammates next year at Charlotte. Who do you think will have better numbers? I say Ravelo, who is younger and a better prospect IMO.

 

Hawkins and Davidson especially are ridiculously too high. Apparently the "still looks awful" scouting reports about Hawkins are being largely ignored. Davidson's the only guy in Charlotte who can't hit. I have serious doubt that either contributes anything at the MLB level.

 

Don't let anyone give you crap about Davidson, oldsox. Denial dies hard.

 

Adams also a little crazy-high due to SSS.

Edited August 8, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[NorthSideSox72]

Hawkins and Davidson especially are ridiculously too high. Apparently the "still looks awful" scouting reports about Hawkins are being largely ignored. Davidson's the only guy in Charlotte who can't hit. I have serious doubt that either contributes anything at the MLB level.

 

Don't let anyone give you crap about Davidson, oldsox. Denial dies hard.

 

Adams also a little crazy-high due to SSS.

Evaluating talent in the minors cannot be as fully about stats as you want it to be. The question being asked is about future MLB value, not who is doing best in the minors. Those are sometimes two different things.

 

On Hawkins, you have to keep in mind: A) He was assigned far too aggressively last year, B) He's still quite young, C) his physical tools in a number of areas dwarf that of some of the prospects you'd bump him for and D) no one is ignoring any reports. On that last point, there's one particularly loud BP kid who fancies himself as a younger Jason Parks, who has been saying his ceiling is a 4th OF. Ceiling. Someone like that should be ignored - and if you read the rest of his tweets, he's obviously immature and lacking in much idea of the gray reality of prospects. Hawkins has improved, a lot, while still quite young for his level.

 

On both Hawkins AND Davidson, you can't fully abandon ship based on part of a, or even one entire, season. You have to look at the complete picture. It's easy to ask what someone as done for you lately, but that isn't always the right question to ask.

 

Numbers in the minors can tell you things, especially if you look at the right ones. But they are only part of the picture, especially at the younger/lower levels.

 

[royoung]

I think his floor is Brendan Ryan.

 

His floor is not being able to hit his way out of A+, which is a real possibility since in 77 games in Kannapolis he posted a .233/.295/.262 line. His numbers thus far in Winston-Salem are very encouraging, but he has a long way to go with the bat to become a useful major leaguer like Ryan.

[witesoxfan]

His floor is not being able to hit his way out of A+, which is a real possibility since in 77 games in Kannapolis he posted a .233/.295/.262 line. His numbers thus far in Winston-Salem are very encouraging, but he has a long way to go with the bat to become a useful major leaguer like Ryan.

 

His glove alone is going to get him to AAA and major league call ups. His bat will hold him back from being a starter or not, and that's only if he's putting up sub .600 OPS's. He has to hit like a pitcher to not make appearances in the majors.

[ILMOU]

Evaluating talent in the minors cannot be as fully about stats as you want it to be. The question being asked is about future MLB value, not who is doing best in the minors. Those are sometimes two different things.

 

On Hawkins, you have to keep in mind: A) He was assigned far too aggressively last year, B) He's still quite young, C) his physical tools in a number of areas dwarf that of some of the prospects you'd bump him for and D) no one is ignoring any reports. On that last point, there's one particularly loud BP kid who fancies himself as a younger Jason Parks, who has been saying his ceiling is a 4th OF. Ceiling. Someone like that should be ignored - and if you read the rest of his tweets, he's obviously immature and lacking in much idea of the gray reality of prospects. Hawkins has improved, a lot, while still quite young for his level.

 

On both Hawkins AND Davidson, you can't fully abandon ship based on part of a, or even one entire, season. You have to look at the complete picture. It's easy to ask what someone as done for you lately, but that isn't always the right question to ask.

 

Numbers in the minors can tell you things, especially if you look at the right ones. But they are only part of the picture, especially at the younger/lower levels.

There's been more than just a few negative reports coming on Hawkins. He's young, as you say. There's definitely hope. I have him between 5-6.

 

I'm much more concerned about Davidson's prospects. He just looks a guy whose contact issues will overwhelm any usefulness against advanced pitching. Struggling mightily in repeat full year of AAA in apparent hitter's paradise. I have him between 11-13.

 

And you can spare the condescending attitude about the relative meaning of MiLB numbers - been following this s*** a long time, and I think I know what I'm seeing and not seeing.

 

One thing that is hard not to notice, is that when a player such as Davidson repeats an upper level of the minors, for a full season, and he regresses badly in it, and it's not due to injury, and the previous season was already a significant downgrade from the prior, and he doesn't have the physical gifts or the youth/inexperience (like a Hawkins) to earn the complimentary raw label - then his chances of becoming an effective big league player are miniscule.

Edited August 8, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[witesoxfan]

Davidson is playing in an entirely different league though, even if it's still AAA.

 

There are reasons to be concerned, but he still needs more time.

[Balta1701]

His glove alone is going to get him to AAA and major league call ups. His bat will hold him back from being a starter or not, and that's only if he's putting up sub .600 OPS's. He has to hit like a pitcher to not make appearances in the majors.

One thing to remember with a guy like that is that his glove could also be good enough to get him enough time in the bigs to learn how to hit big league pitching. We've seen this happen with guys before like Vizquel, maybe Alcides Escobar; you tolerate a low .600's OPS for a good long time because of great defense and after 2500 PA's a guy starts figuring out how to hit.

[royoung]

His glove alone is going to get him to AAA and major league call ups. His bat will hold him back from being a starter or not, and that's only if he's putting up sub .600 OPS's. He has to hit like a pitcher to not make appearances in the majors.

 

I know he makes excellent defense plays, but he has 24 errors so far this season. If Alexei had 24 errors in Chicago we would be crucifying him. You guys are making me feel real s***ty playing devil's advocate on this guy because I really do like his tools, but I am just pointing out he's very raw.

Edited August 8, 2014 by southside hitman

[NorthSideSox72]

There's been more than just a few negative reports coming on Hawkins. He's young, as you say. There's definitely hope. I have him between 5-6.

 

I'm much more concerned about Davidson's prospects. He just looks a guy whose contact issues will overwhelm any usefulness against advanced pitching. Struggling mightily in repeat full year of AAA in apparent hitter's paradise. I have him between 11-13.

 

And you can spare the condescending attitude about the relative meaning of MiLB numbers - been following this s*** a long time, and I think I know what I'm seeing and not seeing.

 

One thing that is hard not to notice, is that when a player such as Davidson repeats an upper level of the minors, for a full season, and he regresses badly in it, and it's not due to injury, and the previous season was already a significant downgrade from the prior, and he doesn't have the physical gifts or the youth/inexperience (like a Hawkins) to earn the complimentary raw label - then his chances of becoming an effective big league player are miniscule.

I wasn't trying to be condescending. Look around this thread - there are people in here with a wide range of knowledge on this stuff. I don't really know how much you do or don't know, so I start simple. Wasn't meant to offend.

 

[Ozzie Ball]

I know he makes excellent defense plays, but he has 24 errors so far this season. If Alexei had 24 errors in Chicago we would be crucifying him. You guys are making me feel real s***ty playing devil's advocate on this guy because I really do like his tools, but I am just pointing out he's very raw.

He's 20, of course he's raw. Young, inexperienced players with great range are going to make errors. Andrelton Simmons made 28 errors as an older 21 year old in A+. Elvis Andrus regularly put up 30+ error seasons in the Minors, Alcides Escobar has several 20 error seasons (and even a 40 error season). They all became excellent defensive MLB SS's.

 

If there are bad scouting reports and errors you can be concerned (Tim Anderson, perhaps). When everyone is calling him a plus-plus defender and he is making errors it's not a concern.

[ILMOU]

I wasn't trying to be condescending. Look around this thread - there are people in here with a wide range of knowledge on this stuff. I don't really know how much you do or don't know, so I start simple. Wasn't meant to offend.

No problem. It's AG

[greg775]

Scary to read about Micah's lack of defense as well as Anderson. Also is Hawkins good or not?

[caulfield12]

Scary to read about Micah's lack of defense as well as Anderson. Also is Hawkins good or not?

 

 

Hawkins is just fine for a corner outfielder, probably a tick above major league average from the video I've seen (granted, those are usually "good/highlight" plays and not errors.)

 

Anderson has the raw tools, but is not refined yet. Jury's still out. Scouts seem to love him, almost across the board, in terms of projecting his future.

 

I think there's more concern about Micah Johnson being a lesser version (both offensively and even defensively) of Ray Durham, and lacking some of Sugar Ray's XB pop at the major league level as well. He had all the steals last season and seems to be concentrating on other aspects of his game, so I'm not sure how easily he could put up a 40-50 steal year in the majors. It might take him some refining that technique and time to learn opposing pitchers and catchers. He's not an absolute terror like Billy Hamilton, at least not this season. At any rate, he's got to steal a lot more than Adam Eaton (successful at an 80% clip or higher) to be a major league regular.

Edited August 8, 2014 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

Scary to read about Micah's lack of defense as well as Anderson. Also is Hawkins good or not?

On Hawkins, it's way too early to say if he's good or not. All you can really say right now is that he has some big semi-raw tools, that he's improved a lot since last year, he's young for the level he's playing at, and next year will tell us a lot.

 

Micah's lack of defense has been known for a while, but it is still very possible he improves enough to be an average defensive 2B. Heck, even if his glove is slightly below average, if he can play his speed into his range, he'd make up for it and then some.

 

Anderson is very, very raw, and it is too early to say how (and where) he ends up defensively.

 

[oldsox]

On the subject of minor league defense, there are some factors that contribute to bad defensive stats:

 

1. Young players whose skills are improving

2. Minor league coaches.

3. Minor league infields.

4. And lastly, minor league official scorers.

[GGajewski18]

All I have to say is FutureSox list is 10 times better than the list on mlb.com

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

All I have to say is FutureSox list is 10 times better than the list on mlb.com

 

 

I think Jonathan Mayo writes the MLB.com lists and I seriously doubt he has ever scouted Sox minor league affiliates. Its all likely secondhand info he uses.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Between Bassitt, Recchia, Dykstra, and Snodgress, Bassitt is the only one with a plus fastball, which tops out at 95 mph when he starts. If he continues to improve on his change and curve, he has a good chance of sticking as a starter. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, he can be an effective high leverage reliever, which you can't say for most of the other guys. That's why I'd put him over the others.

 

The other thing to consider is that Bassett looks like a baseball player. He has "that" face. Baseball face.

[witesoxfan]

The other thing to consider is that Bassett looks like a baseball player. He has "that" face. Baseball face.

 

More than anything else, this is what I look for in a baseball player.

[ILMOU]

I think Jonathan Mayo writes the MLB.com lists and I seriously doubt he has ever scouted Sox minor league affiliates. Its all likely secondhand info he uses.

Somebody here informed me it was Callis that did the mlb.com stuff.

[chitownsportsfan]

More than anything else, this is what I look for in a baseball player.

 

Tragically you don't work for the Yankees, they would have snatched up Beckham.