Prospect Tiers - Position Players

[QuickJones81]

Instead of a ranking I wanted to look at the farm system from a tier perspective. I am splitting this into two posts, one for pitchers and one for position players. I created my own tiers, and players are binned based on my own subjective projection (fully ready to be torn to bits by you guys). As you'll see my method gives young guys a much bigger benefit of the doubt.

 

Here are the position players, let the debate begin:

 

Tier 1: Superstar

None

 

Tier 2: Star / Above Average

Tim Anderson

Courtney Hawkins

Matt Davidson

Trey Michalczewski

Micker Adolfo

Adam Engel

Jake Peter

Micah Johnson

 

Tier 3: Starter

Cleuluis Rondon

Rangel Ravelo

Carlos Sanchez

Brett Austin

Jose Barraza

Zach Fish

 

Tier 4: Bench/Role Player/AAAA

Marcus Semien

Tyler Saladino

Jacob May

Josh Phegley

Toby Thomas

Mason Robbins

Andy Wilkins

Jason Coats

Trayce Thompson

Keon Barnum

Nick Basto

Edited August 6, 2014 by QuickJones81

[Jake]

You are way, way, way too low on Marcus Semien.

[witesoxfan]

You are way, way, way too low on Marcus Semien.

 

I agree, but it also depends on how we're laying this out. Like, if it's ceiling, I think you can say both Hawkins and Anderson have the talent to be superstars, but the likelihood either gets there is slim. However, I think the odds of Hawkins reaching starter capabilities is far worse than that of Tim Anderson.

 

Personally, I'd probably drop Davidson down to starter and Semien up to star/above average, though I think those two should be separated.

[NorthSideSox72]

Sammy Ayala was released.

 

Good thread ideas though, I may put lists in here too.

 

[oldsox]

You are way, way, way too low on Marcus Semien.

A year ago I would have agreed with you. I think he is pegged correctly.

[witesoxfan]

A year ago I would have agreed with you. I think he is pegged correctly.

 

I don't agree. If anything, he's moved up for me. He's getting very unlucky on balls in play - .238 BABIP in AAA right now where he's been .290-.320 for his career - and even still, he's actually increased his power production overall (ISO of .216 in AAA right now) while he has also improved his BB percentage.

 

With normal luck, he could legitimately be hitting something like .270/.370/.500 right now. I hope he gets an extended look at 2B at some time soon, as I think he could be a very good 2B moving forward.

[QuickJones81]

I agree, but it also depends on how we're laying this out. Like, if it's ceiling, I think you can say both Hawkins and Anderson have the talent to be superstars, but the likelihood either gets there is slim. However, I think the odds of Hawkins reaching starter capabilities is far worse than that of Tim Anderson.

 

Personally, I'd probably drop Davidson down to starter and Semien up to star/above average, though I think those two should be separated.

 

 

In my eyes I take initial perceived talent, then offset by track record to date. This is where young guys get the benefit of the doubt. With less data, projections can still point you towards a high ceiling. Inevitably with time, and info, the ceiling naturally comes down, unless they are that ultra rare player who lives up to their hype. Think of how good Trayce's ceiling looked a few years ago. Now, with time, and more info you'd be hard pressed to find someone as high on him as they were back then.

 

My take on Semien after seeing limited time in the majors is that he lacks the consistency at the plate to start everyday. He still in my mind could make a fantastic utility guy who could have his off days blend into the background, yet put together enough memorable moments to justify keeping him on the big league roster.

[QuickJones81]

Sammy Ayala was released.

 

Good thread ideas though, I may put lists in here too.

 

I missed that news, good catch.

[witesoxfan]

In my eyes I take initial perceived talent, then offset by track record to date. This is where young guys get the benefit of the doubt. With less data, projections can still point you towards a high ceiling. Inevitably with time, and info, the ceiling naturally comes down, unless they are that ultra rare player who lives up to their hype. Think of how good Trayce's ceiling looked a few years ago. Now, with time, and more info you'd be hard pressed to find someone as high on him as they were back then.

 

My take on Semien after seeing limited time in the majors is that he lacks the consistency at the plate to start everyday. He still in my mind could make a fantastic utility guy who could have his off days blend into the background, yet put together enough memorable moments to justify keeping him on the big league roster.

 

I don't think our assessments would be far off, except that I think Semien can still provide value when he's not producing due to his ability to draw a walk. It just seems that once he gets comfortable at a level, he really takes well to it. He's has struggles with his average this year, but there's enough evidence to suggest that it may not be low because he's a bad hitter but because he's been unlucky.

[BaconOnAStick]

Semien is by a decent margin the best positional prospect we have, an easy argument could be made he's projects as well (or even better than) Rodon. Just because he struggled in his one month in the majors, albeit while seeing an AL-leading pitches per at bat, and has since hit line drives exactly where fielder's are standing at Charlotte changes nothing. Plenty of guys take a couple months to adjust to major league pitching, and I'm still aggravated that we upset that process because GORDON BECKHAM MUST PLAY.

[Boopa1219]

I know he's only 17, but if everything comes together for Micker, I believe that he can be a superstar player for the White Sox down the line. His tools offer so much upside and his ceiling is so high, and his power potential is insane. Its going to be fun watching him develop over the next few years.

[ron883]

Semien is by a decent margin the best positional prospect we have, an easy argument could be made he's projects as well (or even better than) Rodon. Just because he struggled in his one month in the majors, albeit while seeing an AL-leading pitches per at bat, and has since hit line drives exactly where fielder's are standing at Charlotte changes nothing. Plenty of guys take a couple months to adjust to major league pitching, and I'm still aggravated that we upset that process because GORDON BECKHAM MUST PLAY.

Please make this argument. I just don't see it at all.

[southsider2k5]

Semien is by a decent margin the best positional prospect we have, an easy argument could be made he's projects as well (or even better than) Rodon. Just because he struggled in his one month in the majors, albeit while seeing an AL-leading pitches per at bat, and has since hit line drives exactly where fielder's are standing at Charlotte changes nothing. Plenty of guys take a couple months to adjust to major league pitching, and I'm still aggravated that we upset that process because GORDON BECKHAM MUST PLAY.

 

I hope you mean Rondon and not Rodon.

[GreenSox]

I wouldn't put Anderson in his own tier, but I think he's a grade ahead of any other positional player we have.

[witesoxfan]

I think he means in projectability and assuredness of making it in the majors, not talking about the ceiling. I don't disagree with that assessment. Semien has a major league approach at the plate and he's shown good power too. If nothing else, I could see Semien turning into a .230/.300/.400 type of player, which is a starter at the MLB level at 2B or, at the very least, a very valuable super utility player. I personally see him projecting better than that.

[harfman77]

My tiers:

 

Tier 1: Superstar

Tim Anderson

 

Tier 2: Star / Above Average

 

Courtney Hawkins

Trey Michalczewski

Micker Adolfo

Carlos Sanchez

 

Tier 3: Starter

Micah Johnson

Matt Davidson

Brett Austin

Jacob May

Marcus Semien

Adam Engel

Jake Peter

 

Tier 4: Bench/Role Player/AAAA

Cleuluis Rondon

Rangel Ravelo

Zach Fish

Tyler Saladino

Mason Robbins

Andy Wilkins

Keon Barnum

 

 

[Rowand44]

Outside of Rodon, I think Marcus is the most sure thing in our system. He might not have the ceiling of a Tim Anderson but to me, Semien is going to be at least an average mlb starter for a long, long time.

[Chicago White Sox]

A year ago I would have agreed with you. I think he is pegged correctly.

Stop evaluating players by only using batting average.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm sorry but Jake Peter being rated so highly is ridiculous, although not quite as bad as Semien being in the the sub category. Marcus won the AA MVP last year, has performed extremely well at AAA other than being unlucky, and yet you judge him based on a month or so of big league plate appearances when he had essentially skipped AAA? On the other hand, you base Peter's high rating on a small sample of inflated Pioneer League stats.

 

I know these lists are just for fun, but the above bothers me greatly.

[Ozzie Ball]

I'm sorry but Jake Peter being rated so highly is ridiculous, although not quite as bad as Semien being in the the sub category. Marcus won the AA MVP last year, has performed extremely well at AAA other than being unlucky, and yet you judge him based on a month or so of big league plate appearances when he had essentially skipped AAA? On the other hand, you base Peter's high rating on a small sample of inflated Pioneer League stats.

 

I know these lists are just for fun, but the above bothers me greatly.

Those two should be flipped definitely. I can't see Peter as more than a tier 4 type at this moment. If he maintains elite contact rates going forward then he'll move up but right now he's just a 7th round college guy who was beating up on rookie ball.

[QuickJones81]

I'm sorry but Jake Peter being rated so highly is ridiculous, although not quite as bad as Semien being in the the sub category. Marcus won the AA MVP last year, has performed extremely well at AAA other than being unlucky, and yet you judge him based on a month or so of big league plate appearances when he had essentially skipped AAA? On the other hand, you base Peter's high rating on a small sample of inflated Pioneer League stats.

 

I know these lists are just for fun, but the above bothers me greatly.

 

Peter dominated rookie ball, and the fact that the Sox promoted him straight to Winston Salem might indicate they see more than a guy who had a flukey streak in rookie ball. We shall see...

[Chicago White Sox]

Peter dominated rookie ball, and the fact that the Sox promoted him straight to Winston Salem might indicate they see more than a guy who had a flukey streak in rookie ball. We shall see...

Here's the list of guys who posted .900+ OPSs for the Great Falls White Sox from 2003 to 2007. This period represents the entire time Great Falls was a Sox affiliate before they changed their name to the Voyagers.

 

Brian Anderson: 1.081 (2003)

Ricardo Nanita: .991 (2003)

David Cook: .968 (2004)

Francisco Hernandez: .929 (2005)

Chris Carter: .968 (2006)

C.J Retherford: 1.002 (2007)

Jim Gallagher: .953 (2007)

Christian Marrero: .945 (2007)

Salvador Sanchez: .938 (2007)

.

.

.

Jake Peter: 1.023 (2014)

 

[QuickJones81]

Here's the list of guys who posted .900+ OPSs for the Great Falls White Sox from 2003 to 2007. This period represents the entire time Great Falls was a Sox affiliate before they changed their name to the Voyagers.

 

Brian Anderson: 1.081 (2003)

Ricardo Nanita: .991 (2003)

David Cook: .968 (2004)

Francisco Hernandez: .929 (2005)

Chris Carter: .968 (2006)

C.J Retherford: 1.002 (2007)

Jim Gallagher: .953 (2007)

Christian Marrero: .945 (2007)

Salvador Sanchez: .938 (2007)

.

.

.

Jake Peter: 1.023 (2014)

 

I'm probably just slow, but your point is getting past me

[daggins]

I think the point is that none of those guys panned out.

 

I know each prospect is their own person, etc, but Jake Peter is just a guy right now.

[daggins]

Superstars:

 

Stars:

Tim Anderson

 

MLB Regulars:

Courtney Hawkins

Marcus Semien

Cleuluis Rondon

Micah Johnson

Trey Michalczewski

 

Bench/Utility/Role:

Carlos Sanchez

Trayce Thompson

Matt Davidson

Jacob May

Saladino

Wilkins

 

Probably traded to a team that can use him:

Rangel Ravelo

 

Just a guy:

Jake Peter

Keon Barnum

Everyone else