It's about that time of the year again...

[caulfield12]

I don't know, and I don't know why you're limiting it to just those guys. If you offered Semien, Montas, Hawkins, and Michaczewski for Stanton, and they said they'd do it if you substituted Anderson for Semien and Beck for Montas, are you really going to say "NO ANDERSON IS OUR FUTURE WE CANNOT DEAL HIM AT ANY COST!" when Stanton is that good? Of course, not, you'd make that move in a second. (they likely wouldn't say that, this was merely a hypothetical example of when you'd trade certain players).

 

So much of what you are saying is subject to the teams with whom you'd be doing business, how they value the players, and who you're trying to acquire. A team like the Astros or Padres are likely going to value prospects over established players, while you may be looking to make 2-3 smaller upgrades or looking to acquire a bad contract or a lesser player via trade instead.

 

Speculation like this is idle and pointless. I'm saying three things - that the Sox are almost certainly not going to sign a free agent tied to draft compensation, they will still be active in free agency otherwise, and that they will likely seek upgrades through trades. I'm really not saying anything else. It's not profound or bold in any way.

 

No, I wouldn't.

 

Because we'd still be left with our crappy crappy bullpen that lacks any leadership, Ventura as manager, expected/predictable below-average offensive production from every position in the line-up going into 2015 but Stanton/Abreu/Eaton and maybe Ramirez and Avisail Garcia...stuck with John Danks in the rotation for two more years and also not 100% sure what Noesi's going to produce, and lacking plus defenders all around the diamond and not an extraordinary amount of team speed or fundamentally-inclined players. Heck, we don't even have any type of guarantee that Rodon's going to be a #2 as early as 2016.

 

Assuming Micah and Semien both played a lot and gained experience in 2015, they'd have enough speed finally...which means that acquiring Mike Stanton would be the ultimate "win now/all in" move for one season only, 2016, even moreso than Adam Dunn was.

 

If I firmly believed that Anderson was going to be a franchise player and cornerstone to build around and would stick at either SS or 2B, there's just no way I'm making that gamble if I'm Hahn.

 

It's only an interesting question because of that final 2016 contract year. That's where the calculus of risk of NOT doing anything significant and having Abreu/Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Avisail get injured starts to weigh on your mind as a GM.

 

However, it's not the kind of move that fits Hahn's suggested pattern of "sustainable success" by any sort of definition.

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

You don't have to bring in Heyward or Stanton. You don't have to trade someone from the major league team. You can, but you don't have to.

 

The Sox right now have plenty of good prospects that, while nice to have, are non-essential.

 

If I was reasonably sure we could extend Heyward or Stanton, there is literally no one in the system I wouldn't part with to get either.

 

Actually maybe I would say no to Rodon in a Heyward trade.

[witesoxfan]

No, I wouldn't.

 

Because we'd still be left with our crappy crappy bullpen that lacks any leadership, Ventura as manager, expected/predictable below-average offensive production from every position in the line-up going into 2015 but Stanton/Abreu/Eaton and maybe Ramirez and Avisail Garcia...stuck with John Danks in the rotation for two more years and also not 100% sure what Noesi's going to produce, and lacking plus defenders all around the diamond and not an extraordinary amount of team speed or fundamentally-inclined players. Heck, we don't even have any type of guarantee that Rodon's going to be a #2 as early as 2016.

 

Assuming Micah and Semien both played a lot and gained experience in 2015, they'd have enough speed finally...which means that acquiring Mike Stanton would be the ultimate "win now/all in" move for one season only, 2016, even moreso than Adam Dunn was.

 

If I firmly believed that Anderson was going to be a franchise player and cornerstone to build around and would stick at either SS or 2B, there's just no way I'm making that gamble if I'm Hahn.

 

It's only an interesting question because of that final 2016 contract year. That's where the calculus of risk of NOT doing anything significant and having Abreu/Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Avisail get injured starts to weigh on your mind as a GM.

 

However, it's not the kind of move that fits Hahn's suggested pattern of "sustainable success" by any sort of definition.

 

Sorry to cross sports here, but this logic sounds exactly like the Bulls under GarPax.

 

I truly do believe that Tim Anderson will be a good shortstop at the major league level, but if you were put into an opportunity like that to acquire (another) bonafide superstar, you absolutely pull the trigger and you don't look back. In this instance, it wouldn't solely be a win-now move because Stanton is going to be 25 years old next year and you would re-sign him to a huge deal - sometimes, that's the price of business. It would be a move for the short-term and the long-term.

 

This does fit sustainable success because you'd have 2 top 30 hitters in the game and 2 top 30 pitchers in the game for like the next 5 years at the very minimum. You can seriously fill in around that and let it roll for a while. Plus, that intial offer wasn't including Rodon either, who could be good.

 

You constantly criticize and say that the plan wouldn't be to compete until 2017 or whatever and then wouldn't trade 4 prospects for Giancarlo Stanton because those prospects could be good? That is why the phrase "talking out of both sides of your mouth" was invented.

 

There's no need to talk about Stanton anymore because it's beyond a pipe dream.

[witesoxfan]

If I was reasonably sure we could extend Heyward or Stanton, there is literally no one in the system I wouldn't part with to get either.

 

Actually maybe I would say no to Rodon in a Heyward trade.

 

I am making the assumption that you're talking minor leagues. Abreu and Sale are obvious off-limits at this point. Where's Quintana on this list for you?

[Eminor3rd]

No one in the White Sox minor league system has the ceiling of what Stanton currently is.

 

We'll never get him because someone else will beat our absolute best offer and moving those kind of prospects is dumb without virtually guaranteeing a long-term extension, which will be $200m+, which the WHite Sox probably wouldn't consider.

[Eminor3rd]

I am making the assumption that you're talking minor leagues. Abreu and Sale are obvious off-limits at this point. Where's Quintana on this list for you?

 

Yes, minors.

 

I love Quintana, but I would trade him for Stanton (assuming we'd extend him, even at 8yr/$200m or something), if for no other reason than the position player has a much safer long-term outlook. Would not move Quintana for Heyward, partially because Quintana + his contract is more desirable than Heyward + his likely extension value.

Edited September 4, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

No, I wouldn't.

 

Because we'd still be left with our crappy crappy bullpen that lacks any leadership, Ventura as manager, expected/predictable below-average offensive production from every position in the line-up going into 2015 but Stanton/Abreu/Eaton and maybe Ramirez and Avisail Garcia...stuck with John Danks in the rotation for two more years and also not 100% sure what Noesi's going to produce, and lacking plus defenders all around the diamond and not an extraordinary amount of team speed or fundamentally-inclined players. Heck, we don't even have any type of guarantee that Rodon's going to be a #2 as early as 2016.

 

Assuming Micah and Semien both played a lot and gained experience in 2015, they'd have enough speed finally...which means that acquiring Mike Stanton would be the ultimate "win now/all in" move for one season only, 2016, even moreso than Adam Dunn was.

 

If I firmly believed that Anderson was going to be a franchise player and cornerstone to build around and would stick at either SS or 2B, there's just no way I'm making that gamble if I'm Hahn.

 

It's only an interesting question because of that final 2016 contract year. That's where the calculus of risk of NOT doing anything significant and having Abreu/Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Avisail get injured starts to weigh on your mind as a GM.

 

However, it's not the kind of move that fits Hahn's suggested pattern of "sustainable success" by any sort of definition.

 

Giancarlo Stanton is 24. You would only make this move if you felt 95% sure you could extend him, and there's no way that would be less than a seven year deal at the absolute minimum. That would absolutely be a better bet for production than all of those guys. Can you think of a better and more likely sourced of sustained production than Stanton's age 25-32 seasons?

 

I like Anderson, but I'd be shocked if the chances he ever becomes as productive as Stanton are more than 1%.

[caulfield12]

Sorry to cross sports here, but this logic sounds exactly like the Bulls under GarPax.

 

I truly do believe that Tim Anderson will be a good shortstop at the major league level, but if you were put into an opportunity like that to acquire (another) bonafide superstar, you absolutely pull the trigger and you don't look back. In this instance, it wouldn't solely be a win-now move because Stanton is going to be 25 years old next year and you would re-sign him to a huge deal - sometimes, that's the price of business. It would be a move for the short-term and the long-term.

 

This does fit sustainable success because you'd have 2 top 30 hitters in the game and 2 top 30 pitchers in the game for like the next 5 years at the very minimum. You can seriously fill in around that and let it roll for a while. Plus, that intial offer wasn't including Rodon either, who could be good.

 

You constantly criticize and say that the plan wouldn't be to compete until 2017 or whatever and then wouldn't trade 4 prospects for Giancarlo Stanton because those prospects could be good? That is why the phrase "talking out of both sides of your mouth" was invented.

 

There's no need to talk about Stanton anymore because it's beyond a pipe dream.

 

Now we have no choice but to universally praise the front office around here? Two months ago, most of SoxTalk was TALKING about the possibility/probability of competing as early as next season. Now that talk has pretty much been completely shelved and we're revising/walking it back to say that it was 2016 all along, which does sound a lot like what the Cubs do, and why it won't play with Sox fans.

 

But c'mon.

 

This is stupid. Because the White Sox are never going to give Mike Stanton the $150-200 million that some other team will give. (btw, didn't our owners just try to lead a rebellion of other owners because he believed Manfred was too chummy with the players' union and wasn't dedicated enough to controlling the escalation of salaries???)

 

You call it the cost of doing business, but the White Sox have proven time and time again more than MOST teams that business/profit/sustainability comes before the anomalous Albert Belle and Adam Dunn-like splashy moves and signings.

 

Of course, in a VACUUM not connected to reality, if I knew I would control Mike Stanton's rights through 2021 or 2022, I'd make that trade.

 

It's not my money. I'm not Mike Ilitch or Mark Cuban or Arte Moreno or the LA Dodgers/Walter/Guggenheim partnership.

 

Essentially, we've made essentially two prospect trades like this in the past 10-15 years, for Freddie Garcia (because we knew we could extend him) and for Nick Swisher, which obviously was a disaster. And then there was the White Flag Trade. So three.

Edited September 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[fathom]

Stanton is phenomenal, but there are quite a few other teams that can easily outbid the White Sox. Most people seem to think the Red Sox will put together an impressive package of players in order to try and get him. Just based on Hahn's desire to get some lefty power into the lineup, Pedro Alvarez seems to be someone that I could see the Sox going after.

[witesoxfan]

Yes, minors.

 

I love Quintana, but I would trade him for Stanton (assuming we'd extend him, even at 8yr/$200m or something), if for no other reason than the position player has a much safer long-term outlook. Would not move Quintana for Heyward, partially because Quintana + his contract is more desirable than Heyward + his likely extension value.

 

I feel the same way and you worded it much better than I did.

 

I think where we disagree on this one is that I don't think the Sox would have any problem giving Stanton $25 mill a year. Thanks to the contracts they've signed with Sale and Quintana (assuming you didn't use Quintana to acquire him), they've gained some leeway in giving out extra money, and he'd clearly be worth it. Beyond that, I think he's the type of player who you can trade too if you need to recoup some value. He's also a very good candidate for an opt out after 4 years, which hurts the club long-term but assures you get more than the initial service time guarantee.

 

Again, all hypothetical, but it's fun to try and quantify the value of certain players on the team.

[fathom]

I feel the same way and you worded it much better than I did.

 

I think where we disagree on this one is that I don't think the Sox would have any problem giving Stanton $25 mill a year. Thanks to the contracts they've signed with Sale and Quintana (assuming you didn't use Quintana to acquire him), they've gained some leeway in giving out extra money, and he'd clearly be worth it. Beyond that, I think he's the type of player who you can trade too if you need to recoup some value. He's also a very good candidate for an opt out after 4 years, which hurts the club long-term but assures you get more than the initial service time guarantee.

 

Again, all hypothetical, but it's fun to try and quantify the value of certain players on the team.

 

Stanton's going to get more than 25 million per year, it would seem.

 

[witesoxfan]

Stanton's going to get more than 25 million per year, it would seem.

 

Even if he does, I still don't think the Sox would have a problem with it. His $/WAR (which is what teams will pay for players on the open market) is anywhere between $30-40 mill per season, depending on which dollar figure you look at, and when you get true stars like that who are incredibly marketable, you also increase the value of the franchise a small percentage too with both ticket sales and tv ratings, so they can further justify it that way.

 

I think you're right, he'd get closer to $30 mill a year.

[SHAH]

Stanton is phenomenal, but there are quite a few other teams that can easily outbid the White Sox. Most people seem to think the Red Sox will put together an impressive package of players in order to try and get him. Just based on Hahn's desire to get some lefty power into the lineup, Pedro Alvarez seems to be someone that I could see the Sox going after.

 

 

Like I said in the other thread...MR. Ryan Howard LOL :lol:

[caulfield12]

Giancarlo Stanton is 24. You would only make this move if you felt 95% sure you could extend him, and there's no way that would be less than a seven year deal at the absolute minimum. That would absolutely be a better bet for production than all of those guys. Can you think of a better and more likely sourced of sustained production than Stanton's age 25-32 seasons?

 

I like Anderson, but I'd be shocked if the chances he ever becomes as productive as Stanton are more than 1%.

 

 

And what makes you believe the White Sox, as of right now, or going into this off-season, would be in a position to convince him to sign that type of long-term extension to a 95% degree of certainty?

 

If he's not happy with the Marlins and they managed to compete all season without Jose Fernandez, why wouldn't he want to sign a contract with a team like the Cardinals, Giants or Red Sox that are setting up to compete for the playoffs each and every season?

 

It's POSSIBLE, merely because of the presence/s of Sale/Abreu/Rodon, but Carlos would have to emerge by June/July next year as a legit #2 already for this type of move (and accompanying extension) to work out.

 

 

 

And maybe that's why Stanton hesitates. On Monday afternoon, he declined to discuss something so wispy as an MVP award, but did talk about the dedication to an offseason program that has kept him on the field. He's played in every game, starting all but one.

 

"The way I felt last year, with the whole situation of losing and not playing my best, that was one of the worst feelings I ever had," he said. "I put it as a waste of time. I spent all that time in the offseason. To lose 100 games and to not do my best? It was like, 'What'd I do all that in the offseason for?' "

 

Now he's a .300 hitter, .322 with runners in scoring position. He leads the National League in on-base percentage, in part because he leads the league in intentional walks, and OPS. He's become an elite right fielder. He walks by and big leaguers look him up and down, shake their heads and mutter a single word: "Beast."

 

So, who's with him? The Marlins? Loria? And what about tomorrow? How about then?

 

"We've definitely done better than anyone thought we would do," Stanton said. "At the same time, we're still not where we need to be to keep playing beyond the designed schedule. …I want to be the only game on TV at the end of the day. (sounds a LOT like the White Sox right now.)

 

"We're definitely in a positive direction. But we have a month to go to make the playoffs."

 

The question, then, again: Does this season, one that is just OK but brighter than most, change anything?

 

He thought again, perhaps of these five months, perhaps of these five years.

 

"There's still a long ways to go to be in the same conversation with the best of the best," he said. "I'm hungry for that."

 

 

Tim Brown www.yahoo.com/sports

Edited September 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[2nd_city_saint787]

If you can get Stanton, you do it. If he decides to walk after a season then ya, you're f***ed, but he is absolutely worth the shot. I'd give up Q AND Anderson at a shot to get him. He's a game changer.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Now we have no choice but to universally praise the front office around here? Two months ago, most of SoxTalk was TALKING about the possibility/probability of competing as early as next season. Now that talk has pretty much been completely shelved and we're revising/walking it back to say that it was 2016 all along, which does sound a lot like what the Cubs do, and why it won't play with Sox fans.

 

But c'mon.

 

This is stupid. Because the White Sox are never going to give Mike Stanton the $150-200 million that some other team will give. (btw, didn't our owners just try to lead a rebellion of other owners because he believed Manfred was too chummy with the players' union and wasn't dedicated enough to controlling the escalation of salaries???)

 

You call it the cost of doing business, but the White Sox have proven time and time again more than MOST teams that business/profit/sustainability comes before the anomalous Albert Belle and Adam Dunn-like splashy moves and signings.

 

Of course, in a VACUUM not connected to reality, if I knew I would control Mike Stanton's rights through 2021 or 2022, I'd make that trade.

 

It's not my money. I'm not Mike Ilitch or Mark Cuban or Arte Moreno or the LA Dodgers/Walter/Guggenheim partnership.

 

Essentially, we've made essentially two prospect trades like this in the past 10-15 years, for Freddie Garcia (because we knew we could extend him) and for Nick Swisher, which obviously was a disaster. And then there was the White Flag Trade. So three.

 

 

You are probably light by $100 million or so.

[southsider2k5]

Even if he does, I still don't think the Sox would have a problem with it. His $/WAR (which is what teams will pay for players on the open market) is anywhere between $30-40 mill per season, depending on which dollar figure you look at, and when you get true stars like that who are incredibly marketable, you also increase the value of the franchise a small percentage too with both ticket sales and tv ratings, so they can further justify it that way.

 

I think you're right, he'd get closer to $30 mill a year.

 

On the open market, $25 million a year is an opening bid. We are talking something like Arod or Cabrera money, could be more.

[caulfield12]

Everyone's suddenly forgetting how we won a championship in 2005.

 

That team didn't have any superstars or HOF players, other than Thomas on his last legs and sitting out.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

And solid players at every position who played together as a team, and played the game the right way.

 

And an amazing bullpen, a once in every 20-30 years performance out of all the pitchers.

 

 

Creating this superstar-driven team with Sale, Abreu and Stanton just isn't the way to get there.

[Big Hurtin]

I have a question for those who follow this closely. Where is the predicted drop-off? In other words, are the top five ( for example) players close enough that any of them would be a great pick? Is there one player who is the slam-dunk, can't miss number one guy?

 

Obviously, there is always a chance of a bust regardless.

[hi8is]

Everyone's suddenly forgetting how we won a championship in 2005.

 

That team didn't have any superstars or HOF players, other than Thomas on his last legs and sitting out.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

And solid players at every position who played together as a team, and played the game the right way.

 

And an amazing bullpen, a once in every 20-30 years performance out of all the pitchers.

 

 

Creating this superstar-driven team with Sale, Abreu and Stanton just isn't the way to get there.

I concur, Good Sir

[BlackSox13]

I concur, Good Sir

I second this.

 

Not that I'm against Stanton, dude is a f***ing stud, but I'm not willing to give up an outlandish price for him. Fortunately there are others teams that would and have more to offer. Someone ,I forget who, mentioned Boston. This is the likely team considering Boston has the desire, the prospects and the history of making big trades with the Marlins.

[caulfield12]

I second this.

 

Not that I'm against Stanton, dude is a f***ing stud (BEAST MODE), but I'm not willing to give up an outlandish price for him. Fortunately there are others teams that would and have more to offer. Someone ,I forget who, m

 

 

 

Fathom, and I also said Giants/Dodgers/Cardinals/Red Sox.

 

Well, LA just doesn't make sense unless they clear that OF logjam, as it is, they can't find a place for Joc Pederson to play.

 

So we'll be offered Andre Ethier, Kemp and Carl Crawford again, with salary subsidies attached.

 

 

 

The Giants and Braves (although I doubt they'd spend that time of money, not to mention they have to consider what to do with Heyward)....always seem to have the pitching but lack hitting.

 

 

The Cardinals, it's scary to think of him there, but they have never been a franchise to give out a $175-250 million contract (see their own home-grown superstar, Pujols' exit).

 

The Red Sox make a TON of sense. You have Cespedes just for one more year, Ortiz/Pedroia/Napoli aging, if they could bring back Lester and pair that with acquiring Stanton, they'd have a real shot next year.

 

They would definitely have to part with Bradley/Bogaerts/Middlebrooks and 2-3 more pieces, like De La Rosa or one of their other young pitchers, Ranaudo, etc.entioned Boston. This is the likely team considering Boston has the desire, the prospects and the history of making big trades with the Marlins.

[caulfield12]

I second this.

 

Not that I'm against Stanton, dude is a f***ing stud, but I'm not willing to give up an outlandish price for him. Fortunately there are others teams that would and have more to offer. Someone ,I forget who, mentioned Boston. This is the likely team considering Boston has the desire, the prospects and the history of making big trades with the Marlins.

 

 

Fathom, and I also said Giants/Dodgers/Cardinals/Red Sox.

 

Well, LA just doesn't make sense unless they clear that OF logjam, as it is, they can't find a place for Joc Pederson to play.

 

So we'll be offered Andre Ethier, Kemp and Carl Crawford again, with salary subsidies attached.

 

 

 

The Giants and Braves (although I doubt they'd spend that time of money, not to mention they have to consider what to do with Heyward)....always seem to have the pitching but lack hitting.

 

 

The Cardinals, it's scary to think of him there, but they have never been a franchise to give out a $175-250 million contract (see their own home-grown superstar, Pujols' exit).

 

The Red Sox make a TON of sense. You have Cespedes just for one more year, Ortiz/Pedroia/Napoli aging, if they could bring back Lester and pair that with acquiring Stanton, they'd have a real shot next year.

 

They would definitely have to part with Bradley/Bogaerts/Middlebrooks and 2-3 more pieces, like De La Rosa or one of their other young pitchers, Ranaudo, Workman, etc. I'm the Marlins, I would probably go after Swihart, Bogaerts (buying low), Mookie Betts and two pitchers.

Edited September 5, 2014 by caulfield12

[2nd_city_saint787]

Everyone's suddenly forgetting how we won a championship in 2005.

 

That team didn't have any superstars or HOF players, other than Thomas on his last legs and sitting out.

 

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

And solid players at every position who played together as a team, and played the game the right way.

 

And an amazing bullpen, a once in every 20-30 years performance out of all the pitchers.

 

 

Creating this superstar-driven team with Sale, Abreu and Stanton just isn't the way to get there.

 

Certainly not wrong, but that team still had a big time offense. We need a Dye to our PK(Abreu).

 

If they can snag Stanton they're probably gonna be willing to put that payroll back up into the 120 range. Say Stanton gets 25M a year, that'll put the Sox salary at ~75M next year, 71M in 2016, Danks and Lexi's 25M come off the books in 2017, and Abreu/Sale are the only guys locked up in 2018.

 

Trading Lexi for pitching could also free up even more $$.

 

If they do decide to get that payroll back up to ~120 Stantons ~25 wouldn't prevent them from adding pitching.

[Eminor3rd]

And what makes you believe the White Sox, as of right now, or going into this off-season, would be in a position to convince him to sign that type of long-term extension to a 95% degree of certainty?

 

I don't believe that. I was just commenting on the notion that someone wouldn't give up those prospects for him. The answer is they WOULD if the situation was right, which is one where they have some sort of preliminary communication with Stanton's agent about his willingness to extend (essentially in return for getting out of Miami) and that the White Sox understand and are comfortable with their projections about what it's gonna take to get it done.

 

The Sox can't get him anyway, and that's because another team can easily outbid our best offer, assuming that offer does not include Sale/Abreu, which it shouldn't and never would.