What to work on for 2015

[LDF]

I was reading about the game tonite and found an interesting tidbit. according to cbs sports

the Sox bullpen has 18 blown saves this season. however of those blown saves I wonder the

the numerical number of those were actually losses.

 

what is an average blown save would be for a good team?

I wonder how many more wins would have been added to the w/l record?

(enuf for the playoff)

does the team have a viable option next yr on the team or in the minors?

 

 

BULLPEN BLUES

 

The White Sox won despite the bullpen blowing a save for the 18th time this season,

tied with the Pirates for third most in the majors.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/r...20140812_CHW@SF

 

[caulfield12]

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=93013

 

This is just part of the story.

 

Most would posit the viewpoint that there's a 3-4 game shift with a league average or slightly above average bullpen, from top to bottom. Or if Addison Reed had been the closer all season long, and the Davidson deal had never been made...which would have left Putnam, Petricka and Belisario in their more customary/comfortable set-up roles.

 

That would put them around 6-8 games over .500 (of course, a big assumption, and one that can never be proven one way or the other). Fwiw, Royals are 10 games over, Detroit and Seattle are tied for the wild card lead at 9 over .500 currently.

 

OTOH, we have a -54 run differential (a lot of that was due to three huge beatings in the last week or so) and are currently tied with the Mets and Padres for the 9th worst record in baseball.

 

 

 

As far as the future, Daniel Webb's a huge question mark. Nate Jones is out for 2015 and might not be re-signed even. Do we bring back Lindstrom, and to what purpose, just to try to flip him again in July or August, 2014? Wouldn't it be better to choose Petricka (for example) and give him a chance to learn and grow as closer and stick around into our competitive window?

 

It seems pretty clear Hahn's not going to forfeit a first round draft pick on bringing in a closer like Koji Uehara, David Robertson, K-Rod (leading the NL and maybe all of baseball in saves), Casey Janssen or Rafael Soriano. That's why you'll see the huge back-and-forth argument about the benefits of finishing with a bottom 10 MLB record, which would protect that pick if we signed a top FA.

 

The Mariners, for example, signed Fernando Rodney for $14 million over 2 years and that was a huge bargain, so far (when you look at our spending on Downs, Belisario and Paulino, comparatively). But can Hahn pick the right guy from that list of five and not have it blow up in his face like Keppinger or Downs? We'll find out.

 

Our three best arms in the minors are Rodon, Montas and Adams, and it's unlikely any of them would be converted to closer with the dearth of rotation depth at the major league level. Fwiw, I might switch Erik Johnson into a bullpen role to see if he can contribute anything or figure out a way to get more juice on his pitches in shorter stints. But closer, no way....just an experiment.

Edited August 13, 2014 by caulfield12

[chisoxt]

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=93013

 

This is just part of the story.

 

Most would posit the viewpoint that there's a 3-4 game shift with a league average or slightly above average bullpen, from top to bottom. Or if Addison Reed had been the closer all season long, and the Davidson deal had never been made...which would have left Putnam, Petricka and Belisario in their more customary/comfortable set-up roles.

 

That would put them around 6-8 games over .500 (of course, a big assumption, and one that can never be proven one way or the other). Fwiw, Royals are 10 games over, Detroit and Seattle are tied for the wild card lead at 9 over .500 currently.

Nicely done

OTOH, we have a -54 run differential (a lot of that was due to three huge beatings in the last week or so) and are currently tied with the Mets and Padres for the 9th worst record in baseball.

 

As far as the future, Daniel Webb's a huge question mark. Nate Jones is out for 2015 and might not be re-signed even. Do we bring back Lindstrom, and to what purpose, just to try to flip him again in July or August, 2014? Wouldn't it be better to choose Petricka (for example) and give him a chance to learn and grow as closer and stick around into our competitive window?

 

It seems pretty clear Hahn's not going to forfeit a first round draft pick on bringing in a closer like Koji Uehara, David Robertson, K-Rod (leading the NL and maybe all of baseball in saves), Casey Janssen or Rafael Soriano. That's why you'll see the huge back-and-forth argument about the benefits of finishing with a bottom 10 MLB record, which would protect that pick if we signed a top FA.

 

The Mariners, for example, signed Fernando Rodney for $14 million over 2 years and that was a huge bargain, so far (when you look at our spending on Downs, Belisario and Paulino, comparatively). But can Hahn pick the right guy from that list of five and not have it blow up in his face like Keppinger or Downs? We'll find out.

 

Our three best arms in the minors are Rodon, Montas and Adams, and it's unlikely any of them would be converted to closer with the dearth of rotation depth at the major league level. Fwiw, I might switch Erik Johnson into a bullpen role to see if he can contribute anything or figure out a way to get more juice on his pitches in shorter stints. But closer, no way....just an experiment.

 

Great analysis

 

[southsider2k5]

The White Sox are not going to spend a lot of money on their pen at this stage. The might sign a set up guy, but it will be mostly reclaimation projects and internal promotions.

[caulfield12]

The White Sox are not going to spend a lot of money on their pen at this stage. The might sign a set up guy, but it will be mostly reclaimation projects and internal promotions.

 

 

With the Tigers being vulnerable finally, I think they have to give some serious consideration to making a more than half-hearted attempt to compete in 2015.

 

If nothing else, take away Butler from the Royals or Victor Martinez from the Tigers.

 

For example, if Matt Lindstrom's projected to be the closer again next season...forget selling any season tickets. I'm with the crowd who says you can't keep wasting years of Sale and Abreu in their prime.

 

That doesn't mean sign Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Hanley Ramirez or Sandoval...but they can definitely compete in 2015 if Hahn makes the right moves and all of the core pieces (Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Garcia/Abreu) can stay healthy.

[BaconOnAStick]

I'm not even worried about the Tigers anymore. They are struggling big time in a year they should've run away with this division, and with some of the absolutely terrible money they'll be on the hook for I don't see them improving.

 

The Twins are the team going forward I'm really worried about. Maybe the Royals.

[southsider2k5]

With the Tigers being vulnerable finally, I think they have to give some serious consideration to making a more than half-hearted attempt to compete in 2015.

 

If nothing else, take away Butler from the Royals or Victor Martinez from the Tigers.

 

For example, if Matt Lindstrom's projected to be the closer again next season...forget selling any season tickets. I'm with the crowd who says you can't keep wasting years of Sale and Abreu in their prime.

 

That doesn't mean sign Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Hanley Ramirez or Sandoval...but they can definitely compete in 2015 if Hahn makes the right moves and all of the core pieces (Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Garcia/Abreu) can stay healthy.

 

Top of the list, is that anyone who expects the Sox to spend $100 million on a starting pitcher is delusional. All the John Danks experience has done is probably strengthen the resolve that long terms deals for SPs are not a brilliant idea. Maybe they hit on a guy who is down, that the teams thinks can be fixed, but they aren't going to spend top dollar in the free agent market for a pitcher.

[Vance Law]

Sox are 3rd worst in MLB with 18 blown saves, tied with Pittsburgh.

 

There are 11 teams with at least 15, mostly rebuilding type teams, but also (the aforementioned) Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Baltimore, and Cincy.

Edited August 13, 2014 by Vance Law

[caulfield12]

Top of the list, is that anyone who expects the Sox to spend $100 million on a starting pitcher is delusional. All the John Danks experience has done is probably strengthen the resolve that long terms deals for SPs are not a brilliant idea. Maybe they hit on a guy who is down, that the teams thinks can be fixed, but they aren't going to spend top dollar in the free agent market for a pitcher.

 

 

And of course when the Cubs eventually/finally do sign an ace (probably Lester) and the White Sox don't, there will be the usual penny-pinching stories in the media, despite our payrolls from 2006-2013 being evidence to the contrary.

[southsider2k5]

And of course when the Cubs eventually/finally do sign an ace (probably Lester) and the White Sox don't, there will be the usual penny-pinching stories in the media, despite our payrolls from 2006-2013 being evidence to the contrary.

 

 

Of course nothing has changed since 2006 in the White Sox organization, so it would be just lazy to insinuate otherwise.

[witesoxfan]

And of course when the Cubs eventually/finally do sign an ace (probably Lester) and the White Sox don't, there will be the usual penny-pinching stories in the media, despite our payrolls from 2006-2013 being evidence to the contrary.

 

Why do the Sox need to sign an ace? They have one of the best pitchers in the majors and a great #2.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I really dislike the blown save stat they're presenting. It includes "blown saves" in none save opportunities as well. From what I can tell they blew 9 games in save opportunities....4 less than Addison Reed

 

[greg775]

For example, if Matt Lindstrom's projected to be the closer again next season...forget selling any season tickets. I'm with the crowd who says you can't keep wasting years of Sale and Abreu in their prime.

 

That doesn't mean sign Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Hanley Ramirez or Sandoval...but they can definitely compete in 2015 if Hahn makes the right moves and all of the core pieces (Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Garcia/Abreu) can stay healthy.

 

Hahn has some great players and a lot of lousy ones. It is unacceptable, though, to not be able to build a team around Sale, Q and Abreu. Hawk said it all last night when I believe it was Petricka (the names are different; they all are lousy) blew that 2-0 lead. He said starting pitching doesn't matter at all when you have a bullpen like that.

Sox in my opinion will not climb over .500 without better bullpen and defense. Once you improve that, you still have holes on the starting staff if Rodon isn't on the staff next year and you still need bats.

I disagree with those who say Sox are near contention for next year. Still one of the worst teams in the league on paper.

[LittleHurt05]

I'm confused. Addison Reed would have this team in playoff contention, yet without him alone it's one of the worst teams in the league?

[caulfield12]

I'm confused. Addison Reed would have this team in playoff contention, yet without him alone it's one of the worst teams in the league?

 

 

Welcome to extreme parity among teams 6-24.

[southsider2k5]

I'm confused. Addison Reed would have this team in playoff contention, yet without him alone it's one of the worst teams in the league?

 

Subtract Robin, and add back Addison, and we are 30 games better.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Subtract Robin, and add back Addison, and we are 30 games better.

 

 

I think we'd be undefeated actually. Stop selling the team short.

[greg775]

I don't know why some of you guys aren't more mad at Hahn for the Addison Reed thing. I mean it's inexcusable to trade away a good closer (a proven closer for those of you who don't think he was good) when you have no closer candidates in the current organization. It's pretty bad GM'ing I think.

 

You know, he did acquire some pieces in putting together his version of a bullpen. It's not like he didn't try. He just failed. That's what makes me shake my head at you guys giving him a free pass. He thought he was building a bullpen, but he failed miserably. It's just plain ridiculous to see all these bullpen implosions. If I was a season ticket holder, I'd surely be mad.

[MEANS]

I don't know why some of you guys aren't more mad at Hahn for the Addison Reed thing. I mean it's inexcusable to trade away a good closer (a proven closer for those of you who don't think he was good) when you have no closer candidates in the current organization. It's pretty bad GM'ing I think.

 

You know, he did acquire some pieces in putting together his version of a bullpen. It's not like he didn't try. He just failed. That's what makes me shake my head at you guys giving him a free pass. He thought he was building a bullpen, but he failed miserably. It's just plain ridiculous to see all these bullpen implosions. If I was a season ticket holder, I'd surely be mad.

 

 

I don't know why we have to explain this to you for the 200th time.....stop beating a dead horse.

[LittleHurt05]

greg: I can't believe Rick Hahn didn't have a replacement closer in place after trading Addison Reed

 

Soxtalk: Actually, Hahn thought Nate Jones was a more than suitable replacement. Unfortunately, he succumbed to two major injuries and only faced four batters this year.

 

greg: Nate Jones is a bum, he's not a closer!

 

 

Rinse and repeat.

[caulfield12]

greg: I can't believe Rick Hahn didn't have a replacement closer in place after trading Addison Reed

 

Soxtalk: Actually, Hahn thought Nate Jones was a more than suitable replacement. Unfortunately, he succumbed to two major injuries and only faced four batters this year.

 

greg: Nate Jones is a bum, he's not a closer!

 

 

Rinse and repeat.

 

Nate Jones has horrible mechanics and no control...

 

Lindstrom sucks too!

 

Oh, forgot, Downs and Belisario suck as well. 85% of the team sucks. Why can't we be like the Royals, who always beat the White Sox with Chen and Guthrie.

 

Oh, by the way, Adam Dunn sucks. Paulie and Ozzie rule. Any member of the 2005 White Sox....should have their own statue on the concourse. (Even Joe Borchard.)

Edited August 14, 2014 by caulfield12

[greg775]

Nate Jones has horrible mechanics and no control...

 

Lindstrom sucks too!

 

Oh, forgot, Downs and Belisario suck as well. 85% of the team sucks. Why can't we be like the Royals, who always beat the White Sox with Chen and Guthrie.

 

Oh, by the way, Adam Dunn sucks. Paulie and Ozzie rule. Any member of the 2005 White Sox....should have their own statue on the concourse. (Even Joe Borchard.)

 

I'm not the only guy who rinses and repeats. The reason I reply is somebody makes a controversial point, usually for the 10th time as well. I also get sick of seeing Hahn get a free pass so I bring up Reed.

I hate seeing Paulie get ripped when Dunn doesn't (by many) so I praise Paulie and blast Dunn mostly in response to others.

 

I don't like the Royals BTW. Since they haven't won anything in 25 years and I live around here I wouldn't mind seeing them do the playoff thing this year. As far as whether I'd root for them if they make it, not actively. I'll observe it. I've never rooted for the Royals, not once.

 

The Chen thing bothers me greatly. I'm not cheering it. Can't see how he can take the mound and dominate the White Sox 90 percent of the time when he can't get anybody else out. It amazes me one team has been responsible for his MLB paycheck.

Edited August 14, 2014 by greg775

[witesoxfan]

I don't know why some of you guys aren't more mad at Hahn for the Addison Reed thing. I mean it's inexcusable to trade away a good closer (a proven closer for those of you who don't think he was good) when you have no closer candidates in the current organization. It's pretty bad GM'ing I think.

 

You know, he did acquire some pieces in putting together his version of a bullpen. It's not like he didn't try. He just failed. That's what makes me shake my head at you guys giving him a free pass. He thought he was building a bullpen, but he failed miserably. It's just plain ridiculous to see all these bullpen implosions. If I was a season ticket holder, I'd surely be mad.

 

You know who else was a good closer for the White Sox? Sergio Santos. The Sox did the same exact thing, and the exact same thing has happened. Even still, I'd prefer to have Nestor Molina at this point in time, given the contract and prospect status, over Sergio Santos.

 

He acquired guys with talent, and those guys with talent have either gotten injured or have underperformed their talent level. Write them off and move on. I have no problem with that whatsoever. Actual "consistent" middle relievers cost a lot of money and they do not win you a lot of games. If you have a bad team, you are paying guys $7-10 mill a year to come in to preserve 5-4 losses. That's not a smart business move. It's better to do that when you can at least have a good team for these bullpens to work for.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I don't know why some of you guys aren't more mad at Hahn for the Addison Reed thing. I mean it's inexcusable to trade away a good closer (a proven closer for those of you who don't think he was good) when you have no closer candidates in the current organization. It's pretty bad GM'ing I think.

 

You know, he did acquire some pieces in putting together his version of a bullpen. It's not like he didn't try. He just failed. That's what makes me shake my head at you guys giving him a free pass. He thought he was building a bullpen, but he failed miserably. It's just plain ridiculous to see all these bullpen implosions. If I was a season ticket holder, I'd surely be mad.

 

i have no problem sounding like a broken record so I'll take the bait.

 

They didn't have any closer candidates in the org??

 

Hahn didn't trade Reed after Nate Jones got hurt. Hahn didn't trade Reed after Daniel Webb went from a dominant reliever to what he is today. Hahn didn't trade Reed after Lindstrom (Who when he was a full time closer back in the day save 83% of his saves, Reed is at 85% for his career) got hurt.

 

 

 

 

[greg775]

You know who else was a good closer for the White Sox? Sergio Santos. The Sox did the same exact thing, and the exact same thing has happened. Even still, I'd prefer to have Nestor Molina at this point in time, given the contract and prospect status, over Sergio Santos.

 

He acquired guys with talent, and those guys with talent have either gotten injured or have underperformed their talent level. Write them off and move on. I have no problem with that whatsoever. Actual "consistent" middle relievers cost a lot of money and they do not win you a lot of games. If you have a bad team, you are paying guys $7-10 mill a year to come in to preserve 5-4 losses. That's not a smart business move. It's better to do that when you can at least have a good team for these bullpens to work for.

 

Good post.

I guess the question is ... when do you decide you have a "good" team and thus want to pay for some good relievers? There's also no guarantee paying a guy means he's good (Thornton in his later years). I hope one of these years the no name bullpen clicks and is reliable. It's insane to blow all these leads.