Is This a Playoff Team in 2015?

[Kyyle23]

I think that a variety of trades for guys we haven't even guessed about yet, as happened last offseason, is much more likely than the White Sox spending $50 million and giving up several draft picks and much of their signing bonus pool.

 

I believe that they have the framework of a deal worked out, based on Hahns comments after the deadline. Hopefully it means shipping Danks out and bringing a RHP in

[caulfield12]

No one is against spending money in FA in general, but many are against spending it simply for the sake of spending it, because that's how you end up painted in a corner. Hahn's plan is much larger than Chris Sale and Jose Abreu and how both fit into a "contention window" -- it's about building a healthy organization that can enjoy sustained success. Panicking and buying marginal upgrades at market rate simply because they were the best available is precisely how we ended up in this "mess" to begin with.

 

I think that, fortunately, KW's willingness to pay out the nose for upgrades without long-term commitments has afforded us the ability to crawl out of the "rock bottom" phase of the rebuild sooner, but that doesn't mean we should forget the big picture in year two and start acting like Jim Hendry all of a sudden.

 

 

That's all fine and good, but rebuilding and competing on the go requires more immediate results for the Sox fanbase. Everyone knows this.

 

So while the Cubs were in a position to pass on those free agency markets due to timing issues, and put out some tentative "we will fix things with our pitching staff sometime between 18 to 24 months from now" mantras, that's not going to work for the Sox.

 

Hahn never presented that blueprint of waiting from 2011 until 2017 for a World Series-contending team like Epstein and Hoyer have consistently done. Of course, he wasn't in a position to sell the future when the "shorter term" has always been more important to the White Sox as a means of running a business.

 

Sooner or later, his hand is going to be forced.

 

Remember last season when people were saying the Cubs simply HAVE to sign a starting pitcher. Well, they passed on Tanaka, and have maximized the values of Garza, Feldman, Samardzija and Hammel. They now have a potential ace in Arrieta who needs to be paired with Lester/Scherzer/Shields for their fans to really start to believe...

Edited August 20, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Not a playoff team

 

We can be happy about Jerry's wallet though, if that's your thing.

 

Next to "White Flag" and "attendance", this is my least favorite White Sox meme.

[Eminor3rd]

That's all fine and good, but rebuilding and competing on the go requires more immediate results for the Sox fanbase. Everyone knows this.

 

So while the Cubs were in a position to pass on those free agency markets due to timing issues, and put out some tentative "we will fix things with our pitching staff sometime between 18 to 24 months from now" mantras, that's not going to work for the Sox.

 

Hahn never presented that blueprint of waiting from 2011 until 2017 for a World Series-contending team like Epstein and Hoyer have consistently done. Of course, he wasn't in a position to sell the future when the "shorter term" has always been more important to the White Sox as a means of running a business.

 

Sooner or later, his hand is going to be forced.

 

Why is it different for the Sox fanbase? Attendance has been declining for seven years, there's no reason to believe it won't continue. The only way to reverse that trend is to build a successful franchise, and so Hahn needs to build a successful franchise as quickly as possible. Straying from that path will only delay him from the goal. 2012 proved to us that 4 months of competitive baseball is NOT enough to bring the fans back. Flash-in-the-pan signings that hurt the long-term value of the system are hail maries that have not duped Sox fans in the past, and if that was Hahn's plan, he wouldn't have been hired. We all like to point out that Jerry has plenty of money and we all agree that his goal is to make more of it -- I'd argue that the only logical path is to get to profitability the quickest, and that he easily has the means to weather the "investment" in time required to get there.

 

hahn's a smart man who has had a lot of time to come up with a plan that makes sense to him and that was approved by ownership. The best move for him is to sink or swim with his best plan. Guys don't usually get to his station without understanding that.

Edited August 20, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

If they keep Danks in the rotation, then they're just a different version of the Cubs sitting on the Edwin Jackson contract

 

 

That's a hell of an idea.

 

Swap Danks and Jackson. The Sox can pick up the difference or they can still pay Jackson $13 million while the Cubs pay Danks $11 mill (which, if you figure the Danks contract is a sunk cost anyways, is the same thing as DFA'ing Danks and taking a 2 year, $4 million flyer on Jackson). Frankly, Jackson had the most success of his career pitching for the Sox under Cooper, and his stuff is still solid. If he flops in the rotation, you can then try him out of the bullpen as a middle reliever and set up guy, as he's always had the stuff to succeed in that role too. The Cubs want out of that contract and Danks seems to be more of an NL pitcher at this point anyways where he can pitch around guys a little easier.

 

Just an idea.

[Balta1701]

This is by far the most important factor people are ignoring. We need to build around these guys RIGHT NOW, as Sale or Quintana could down at any point in time. Wasting the surplus value these players are currently providing is the dumbest thing we could do.

 

It blows my mind people are so concerned about draft picks and the lack of surplus value free agents will provide. We have $46M in payroll commitments for next year and yet some posters are against spending anything of significance in free agency. Having financial flexibility is great, but it's damn near worthless if you're afraid to spend it.

Take a look at what happened last year...the White Sox had their 1b fall completely apart and had an immediate opening for a 1b who could provide offense. They had no near-future options at that position and there was a long-term option available as a FA that immediately matched up with the White Sox's needs. The White Sox then landed that player.

 

I don't think the Sox will hesitate to spend money if they have a solid fit available, but so far no one has convinced me that there are options worth spending on. A right handed starting pitcher would fit this team, but just with Noesi we're talking about a fairly young guy who has a good shot of being a >1 WAR pitcher. Sure a $15 million/middle rotation guy is an upgrade over that but if it involves casting aside the young guy who has outperformed what he's being paid it isn't as big of an upgrade as we'd like.

 

If the guys we're talking about are James Shields and Nick Markakis, they're not exactly names that excite me a whole lot. They're not guys who I look at and say "This is the last piece we need" unless a bunch of other things happen first.

[Balta1701]

 

That's a hell of an idea.

 

Swap Danks and Jackson. The Sox can pick up the difference or they can still pay Jackson $13 million while the Cubs pay Danks $11 mill (which, if you figure the Danks contract is a sunk cost anyways, is the same thing as DFA'ing Danks and taking a 2 year, $4 million flyer on Jackson). Frankly, Jackson had the most success of his career pitching for the Sox under Cooper, and his stuff is still solid. If he flops in the rotation, you can then try him out of the bullpen as a middle reliever and set up guy, as he's always had the stuff to succeed in that role too. The Cubs want out of that contract and Danks seems to be more of an NL pitcher at this point anyways where he can pitch around guys a little easier.

 

Just an idea.

You know how much I despised the Sox deal for Edwin Jackson. I'd consider this.

[Balta1701]

I believe that they have the framework of a deal worked out, based on Hahns comments after the deadline. Hopefully it means shipping Danks out and bringing a RHP in

I worry about the hesitation I'm seeing this year, the total lack of moves even just to clear guys out. Last year we at least cleared some guys out to create roles for people or signings. That hasn't happened since training camp started and it should have.

[Kyyle23]

I worry about the hesitation I'm seeing this year, the total lack of moves even just to clear guys out. Last year we at least cleared some guys out to create roles for people or signings. That hasn't happened since training camp started and it should have.

 

I dont think it is hesitation as much as lack of interest. Peavy was far more interesting and affordable than Danks could ever be right now. Rios also trumps Beckham and Dunn.

 

I think injuries to Lindstrom/Jones and belly flops from Beckham and Belisario really hurt any dealings that Hahn could get going, and probably resulted in the Sox having to pay too much to make it worth it.

 

I wanted these guys moved too, but we see these guys every day. We know what they are really worth

[fathom]

I worry about the hesitation I'm seeing this year, the total lack of moves even just to clear guys out. Last year we at least cleared some guys out to create roles for people or signings. That hasn't happened since training camp started and it should have.

 

Considering Semien's track record of having to adjust to a new level before he starts to excel, it's frustrating he hasn't gotten more at bats this month with the big league team.

[Balta1701]

I dont think it is hesitation as much as lack of interest. Peavy was far more interesting and affordable than Danks could ever be right now. Rios also trumps Beckham and Dunn.

 

I think injuries to Lindstrom/Jones and belly flops from Beckham and Belisario really hurt any dealings that Hahn could get going, and probably resulted in the Sox having to pay too much to make it worth it.

 

I wanted these guys moved too, but we see these guys every day. We know what they are really worth

In order to actually play on the FA market, the Sox are going to have to get rid of some of these guys at near zero value. If they want a rotation spot available for Rodon they don't have room to sign a big time starting pitcher unless they can clear Danks out of the way somehow. They have held onto Dunn, De Aza, and Beckham, when there are teams that would be upgraded by each of those guys and doing so would save the Sox a small portion of their contract. 2 of those guys need to be non-tendered this offseason but why would they hold onto them until the end of the season and then non-tender them if they could save a small bit of salary?

[Rowand44]

I think Rick is going to spend a bit of money in the offseason to make the Sox a legit 2015 contender. There's definitely some holes on the roster right now but there's a lot of talent here too.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Fix the bullpen first... then:

 

Add a starting pitcher (does Rodon count?)

Add a leftie bat to replace Dunn (thank God!)

Add a 2/3 WAR OF (not easy to do)

Keep Eaton healthy for 162 (not likely)

 

Yes, it can be done!

 

[maggsmaggs]

I think Rick is going to spend a bit of money in the offseason to make the Sox a legit 2015 contender. There's definitely some holes on the roster right now but there's a lot of talent here too.

The main problem with our team is the lack of pitching, in the rotation and the bullpen. Obviously, we have 1-2 in the rotation set. But 3-4-5 is a complete mystery. Offensively, we are 7th in the AL in runs scored, right in the middle of the pack. The offensive is probably fine with hopefully full seasons from Eaton and Garcia. Then add that Semien will probably outperform Beckham. You don't need to spend that much for a LF in order to replace ADA. And Flowers is what he is, a mediocre catcher that will be hard to upgrade due to the lack of quality catching options.

 

 

But we are going to have to spend to fix the rotation. I hope Rodon can handle a rotation spot, but Danks and Noesi are complete wildcards. Frankly, Rodon is, too, and he can't be counted on for 35 starts.

 

Of the 43 qualifying pitchers for WAR in the AL, Noesi and Danks are 41 and 43, respectively (though Noesi has been better with the Sox). IMO, the rotation is the biggest need, followed by the bullpen. Either Rick is going to have to spend big on pitching (which he is probably averse to) or we are going to have to pray that we find the next Jake Arrieta and not Felipe Paulino.

Edited August 20, 2014 by maggsmaggs

[Balta1701]

The main problem with our team is the lack of pitching, in the rotation and the bullpen. Obviously, we have 1-2 in the rotation set. But 3-4-5 is a complete mystery. Offensively, we are 7th in the AL in runs scored, right in the middle of the pack. The offensive is probably fine. But we are going to have to spend to fix the rotation. I hope Rodon can handle a rotation spot, but Danks and Noesi are complete wildcards. Of the 43 qualifying pitchers for WAR in the AL, Noesi and Danks are 41 and 43, respectively. IMO, the rotation is the biggest need, followed by the bullpen. Either Rick is going to have to spend big on pitching (which he is probably averse to) or we are going to have to pray that we find the next Jake Arrieta and not Felipe Paulino.

Again, for Noesi this really doesn't express what he's actually done this season. He's on the verge of being a >1 WAR pitcher with the White Sox and a -0.3 WAR pitcher with the Rangers/Mariners this season, and that's as a pitcher who still has room to grow in this league.

 

I wouldn't pay him $13.5 million for that performance and I wouldn't pencil him into my number 2 slot in the rotation, but if Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher and James Shields or Justin Masterson is a 3 WAR pitcher, then we're talking about paying maybe 5/$100 to a guy who will add ~$10 million in value to the rotation. That's a very different question.

 

Danks, yes, he remains a problem and I'm disappointed we didn't do something to deal with that problem at the trading deadline when maybe you could have gotten a team to pay a premium "win-now" price in terms of how much of that contract they'd pick up.

[maggsmaggs]

Again, for Noesi this really doesn't express what he's actually done this season. He's on the verge of being a >1 WAR pitcher with the White Sox and a -0.3 WAR pitcher with the Rangers/Mariners this season, and that's as a pitcher who still has room to grow in this league.

 

I wouldn't pay him $13.5 million for that performance and I wouldn't pencil him into my number 2 slot in the rotation, but if Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher and James Shields or Justin Masterson is a 3 WAR pitcher, then we're talking about paying maybe 5/$100 to a guy who will add ~$10 million in value to the rotation. That's a very different question.

 

Danks, yes, he remains a problem and I'm disappointed we didn't do something to deal with that problem at the trading deadline when maybe you could have gotten a team to pay a premium "win-now" price in terms of how much of that contract they'd pick up.

I added in my original post that Noesi has been better with the Sox. He still is a complete unknown though. As your fifth starter, I think he would be fine. But when you also have Danks and an unproven third starter, it exacerbates the problem.

[Balta1701]

I added in my original post that Noesi has been better with the Sox. He still is a complete unknown though. As your fifth starter, I think he would be fine. But when you also have Danks and an unproven third starter, it exacerbates the problem.

I saw that after I added my post.

 

The "unproven" third starter is where I'll come down on you in this one. If your "Unproven third starter" in 2012 is Chris Sale...you're ok with that. If your "unproven third starter" in 2015 is Carlos Rodon...yeah, I'm ok with that, and frankly I'd be disappointed if we went into the season having him obviously blocked.

 

If there was a Felipe Paulino type added to the rotation to give Rodon time in the minors, that's fine and probably a solid idea, but you can't add Justin Masterson to this rotation and think "Oh we'll move Danks or release Noesi when Rodon is ready" because that's pretty messy and Noesi at this performance level would be a nice piece to have for the next couple years.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I don't want to see Rodon penciled in as a starter at the start of next year. We need to have 5 starters ready to go, and call Rodon up in event of injury or someone gets traded. Ideally, we shouldn't call him up until June.

 

Even if we pencil him in as a starter, I am sure he will be on an inning limit, and he won't be able to help much in a playoff race if we are in one.

[Jose Abreu]

I've said this before and I'll say it again- who specifically do you all want when you ask for a lefty bat to replace Dunn? There just aren't many LH power hitters on the market.

[caulfield12]

Again, for Noesi this really doesn't express what he's actually done this season. He's on the verge of being a >1 WAR pitcher with the White Sox and a -0.3 WAR pitcher with the Rangers/Mariners this season, and that's as a pitcher who still has room to grow in this league.

 

I wouldn't pay him $13.5 million for that performance and I wouldn't pencil him into my number 2 slot in the rotation, but if Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher and James Shields or Justin Masterson is a 3 WAR pitcher, then we're talking about paying maybe 5/$100 to a guy who will add ~$10 million in value to the rotation. That's a very different question.

 

Danks, yes, he remains a problem and I'm disappointed we didn't do something to deal with that problem at the trading deadline when maybe you could have gotten a team to pay a premium "win-now" price in terms of how much of that contract they'd pick up.

 

 

I think those 2-3 terrible starts he had in July really submarined his trade value and forced Hahn's hand in terms of holding onto him.

 

There were too many options out there who were affordable or whose contracts weren't longer-term commitments....guys like McCarthy, Capuano, Correia, Robert Hernandez/Fausto Carmona, Jake Peavy, etc.

[maggsmaggs]

I've said this before and I'll say it again- who specifically do you all want when you ask for a lefty bat to replace Dunn? There just aren't many LH power hitters on the market.

That is why it is imperative to see what you have in Wilkins. He may suck and I would argue that is more likely than feeling confident to place him as your DH next year, but you gotta see what you have.

[Balta1701]

I don't want to see Rodon penciled in as a starter at the start of next year. We need to have 5 starters ready to go, and call Rodon up in event of injury or someone gets traded. Ideally, we shouldn't call him up until June.

 

Even if we pencil him in as a starter, I am sure he will be on an inning limit, and he won't be able to help much in a playoff race if we are in one.

To make this happen we need to have an obvious guy we'd be willing to either trade, demote, or release if Rodon is tearing up the minors in May. If they're not willing to eat Danks's contract and Noesi is pitching as well as he has with the Sox, then that means they need to find an expendable arm to fill that rotation slot in April and May.

[Balta1701]

I think those 2-3 terrible starts he had in July really submarined his trade value and forced Hahn's hand in terms of holding onto him.

 

There were too many options out there who were affordable or whose contracts weren't longer-term commitments....guys like McCarthy, Capuano, Correia, Robert Hernandez/Fausto Carmona, Jake Peavy, etc.

The reality though is that teams gave up actually talented players for some of those guys. That's where Danks could have fit in if the Sox were willing to eat a little bit of money or if the Sox were more aggressive in dumping him in June.

[thxfrthmmrs]

To make this happen we need to have an obvious guy we'd be willing to either trade, demote, or release if Rodon is tearing up the minors in May. If they're not willing to eat Danks's contract and Noesi is pitching as well as he has with the Sox, then that means they need to find an expendable arm to fill that rotation slot in April and May.

 

I can't think of any recent years where the Sox didn't have to bring in anyone outside of their opening day rotation to start games during the season. And given the number of holes we have to fill in the lineup and bullpen, I don't think we will have a very strong back of the rotation heading into next year.

[southsider2k5]

I don't want to see Rodon penciled in as a starter at the start of next year. We need to have 5 starters ready to go, and call Rodon up in event of injury or someone gets traded. Ideally, we shouldn't call him up until June.

 

Even if we pencil him in as a starter, I am sure he will be on an inning limit, and he won't be able to help much in a playoff race if we are in one.

 

I don't want to either, but it as plain as day to me that he is going to be in the starting rotation in 2015. There is literally no good reason to have him here in September 2014, unless you are planning to have him here in 2015.