Is This a Playoff Team in 2015?

[ChiSox59]

No one took a look at my line up. Back on page 1.

 

I like it, though it is obviously far-fetched.

 

Here it is:

 

Trade Viciedo, Beck, Hawkins and Sanchez for Jay Bruce and Sean Marshall.

Why would the Reds make that trade? Markakis on a FA contract something like 4 years, $48M seems more likely. Keep Viciedo in DH/occasional OF platoon

Sign relievers Andrew Miller and Luke Gregorson.

That's going to cost $35-40M. 3 years at $6M per for Miller; 4 years at $5M per for Gregorson

Trade Danks to anyone that will take on most of his contract.

Don't see that happening.

Sign Justin Masterson to a one year prove it again contract.

Would love this, although I hope the SOX at least dabble with Shields.

Sign Michael Cuddyer to a 2 year contract. DH him and let him play OF for when someone needs a rest.

Like the idea, but Cuddyer's days in the OF are over.

Sign Emilio Bonifacio to play a utility role.

Love it.

 

CF Eaton

SS Ramirez

1B Abreu

RF Bruce

DH Cuddyer

LF Garcia

3B Gillaspie/Davidson

2B Johnson/Semien

C Flowers

 

Bench

Nieto

Bonifacio

Danks/Sierra

Davidson (splits time with Gillaspie)

 

Rotation

Sale

Quintana

Masterson

Rodon

Noesi

 

Bullpen

Petricka

Guerra

Webb

Marshall

Gregorson

Miller

Carroll/Johnson/Rienzo (long relief)

Edited August 20, 2014 by ChiSox59

[maggsmaggs]

If Red Sox want Alexei, I'm asking for Boegarts.

He's struggled this year, but they are not giving up a 21-year-old cost-controlled SS for one year of Alexei Ramirez.

[Jose Abreu]

NO

 

YES

[Balta1701]

I really think the majority of additions to the roster next season come from the trade market. I expect Alexei will be made available for the right return in the winter meetings and that Hahn will make a run at Tomas and probably at Pedro Alvarez as an alternative to re-signing Dunn. I think Alexei could go for a pretty good return as the Red Sox and Yankees are both likely to be in the bidding along with the Dodgers if they feel that Hanley either won't sign or has a future at 3B.

Worth noting that Pedro Alvarez is a 2nd-year arb eligible player with only 2 years of team control remaining prior to FA. His salary next year if offered arb will probably push $6 million, and a repetition of his 2013 struggles with the bat could turn him into a 2016 non-tender candidate.

[caulfield12]

This question is pretty much irrelevant anyway until Opening Day, 2015.

 

To categorically say "yes" or "no" without seeing the changes in the next 7 months...that's a bit premature.

 

However, it's VERY VERY unlikely all the team's issues can be addressed in just two off-seasons.

[ChiSox59]

I really think the majority of additions to the roster next season come from the trade market. I expect Alexei will be made available for the right return in the winter meetings and that Hahn will make a run at Tomas and probably at Pedro Alvarez as an alternative to re-signing Dunn. I think Alexei could go for a pretty good return as the Red Sox and Yankees are both likely to be in the bidding along with the Dodgers if they feel that Hanley either won't sign or has a future at 3B.

 

Tomas' numbers in Cuba are pretty pedestrian. I wouldn't be thrilled with that unless it is on the cheap, and other reinforcements are also brought in.

[ptatc]

No one is against spending money in FA in general, but many are against spending it simply for the sake of spending it, because that's how you end up painted in a corner. Hahn's plan is much larger than Chris Sale and Jose Abreu and how both fit into a "contention window" -- it's about building a healthy organization that can enjoy sustained success. Panicking and buying marginal upgrades at market rate simply because they were the best available is precisely how we ended up in this "mess" to begin with.

 

I think that, fortunately, KW's willingness to pay out the nose for upgrades without long-term commitments has afforded us the ability to crawl out of the "rock bottom" phase of the rebuild sooner, but that doesn't mean we should forget the big picture in year two and start acting like Jim Hendry all of a sudden.

Who are these "marginal upgrade" players that caused the mess?

[GGajewski18]

I like it, though it is obviously far-fetched.

 

Here it is:

 

Trade Viciedo, Beck, Hawkins and Sanchez for Jay Bruce and Sean Marshall.

Why would the Reds make that trade?

Sign relievers Andrew Miller and Luke Gregorson.

That's going to cost $35-40M. 3 years at $6M per for Miller; 4 years at $5M per for Gregorson

Trade Danks to anyone that will take on most of his contract.

Don't see that happening.

Sign Justin Masterson to a one year prove it again contract.

Would love this, although I hope the SOX at least dabble with Shields.

Sign Michael Cuddyer to a 2 year contract. DH him and let him play OF for when someone needs a rest.

Like the idea, but Cuddyer's days in the OF are over.

Sign Emilio Bonifacio to play a utility role.

Love it.

 

They reportedly made Latos available this trade deadline. Phillips is on the wrong side of 30, Votto although great, is very injury prone, Bailey and Latos are both injury prone also and Latos is getting expensive.

 

I would love to get Shields, but I obviously went another route focusing on the bullpen with 2 of the better arms on the market and a starting pitcher in Masterson that can net you a good return if he pitches well, or extend if you feel like he can be part of the future. He's a sinker baller who's experienced in the AL central.

 

Cuddyer would strictly be DH and could even rest Abreu at first too.

 

Every contending team needs a guy like Bonifacio in my opinion.

[caulfield12]

Who are these "marginal upgrade" players that caused the mess?

 

 

Dunn.

 

Keppinger and Downs, to a lesser extent.

 

Swisher.

 

Javy.

 

Edwin Jackson.

 

Manny Ramirez.

 

Liriano, Myers and Youkilis.

 

Griffey, Jr.

 

 

[GGajewski18]

Dunn.

 

Keppinger and Downs, to a lesser extent.

 

Swisher.

 

Javy.

 

Edwin Jackson.

 

Manny Ramirez.

 

Liriano, Myers and Youkilis.

 

Griffey, Jr.

 

Although none of the players that KW gave up for these guys have amounted to anything.

[caulfield12]

Although none of the players that KW gave up for these guys have amounted to anything.

 

 

The biggest problem has clearly been the fact that the Dunn and Danks deals blew up, so it's pretty much been the excuse for the last four years or so for not doing anything.

 

That said, they did go out on a limb with Jose Abreu.

 

If we could apply our track record with Cubans (2 out of 3 or 67%) to everything else we do with the June draft and FA/international signings, this team would be sitting pretty right now.

[Boopa1219]

I think that next year the team finishes .500 or around .500. I think that Hahn is going to make some more moves to improve the team like last offseason. He has to bolster the bullpen up, improve the catching position and get a left handed bat in the middle of the line up. I would also like to see 2 RHP in the starting rotation but that is a want, not a need.

[witesoxfan]

Dunn.

 

Keppinger and Downs, to a lesser extent.

 

Swisher.

 

Javy.

 

Edwin Jackson.

 

Manny Ramirez.

 

Liriano, Myers and Youkilis.

 

Griffey, Jr.

Although none of the players that KW gave up for these guys have amounted to anything.

 

I would say Gio Gonzalez, Chris Young, Dan Hudson, Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Masset all have amounted to something or another at one point in time.

[Balta1701]

The biggest problem has clearly been the fact that the Dunn and Danks deals blew up, so it's pretty much been the excuse for the last four years or so for not doing anything.

 

That said, they did go out on a limb with Jose Abreu.

 

If we could apply our track record with Cubans (2 out of 3 or 67%) to everything else we do with the June draft and FA/international signings, this team would be sitting pretty right now.

Peavy's injury and 2011 Rios fit on that list also along with the other 2 deals blowing up.

[ptatc]

Dunn.

 

Keppinger and Downs, to a lesser extent.

 

Swisher.

 

Javy.

 

Edwin Jackson.

 

Manny Ramirez.

 

Liriano, Myers and Youkilis.

 

Griffey, Jr.

Dunn was not a marginal upgrade. At the time he was one of the most dependable LH HR bats in the league

 

Downs was a very dependable LH reliever, especially LOOGy

 

Keppinger was basucally Gillaspie. A 300 hitter with a fair glove.

 

all the rest cost no money and didn't create any mess what so ever.

[caulfield12]

Peavy's injury and 2011 Rios fit on that list also along with the other 2 deals blowing up.

 

 

Yep. I'm not going to bother picking on Konerko for 2013 too much, but that didn't help, either.

 

Next, future "franchise star" Carlos Quentin never was the same after that self-inflicted hamate injury in 2008. He went from MVP to a near non-tender candidate and marginal trade return.

 

Finally, Gordon Beckham.

Edited August 20, 2014 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Anyone that says Dunn was "a marginal upgrade" is using some excellent revisionist history. Prior to Chicago he was one of the most consistent hitters in the game that almost without fail put up around 3 WAR, 30-40 HRs, and a OPS+ of around 130.

 

At the time he was signed Chicago had little power in the lineup and DH was a big problem. Remember Mark Kotsay?

 

That things didn't work out with Dunn remains one of the biggest puzzles in Sox history IMO. Maybe it was the apendix thing.

[ptatc]

I would say Gio Gonzalez, Chris Young, Dan Hudson, Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Masset all have amounted to something or another at one point in time.

Gonzalez is really the only one maybe Young to a lesser extent. Masset was ok. Hudson only pitched 50 or so after the Sox and Escobar has played in only about 180 with an OPS of 668.

 

That really isn't much compared to all the moves.

[Rowand44]

Anyone that says Dunn was "a marginal upgrade" is using some excellent revisionist history. Prior to Chicago he was one of the most consistent hitters in the game that almost without fail put up around 3 WAR, 30-40 HRs, and a OPS+ of around 130.

 

At the time he was signed Chicago had little power in the lineup and DH was a big problem. Remember Mark Kotsay?

 

That things didn't work out with Dunn remains one of the biggest puzzles in Sox history IMO. Maybe it was the apendix thing.

Ya, he should have been like the biggest upgrade of all time.

[Balta1701]

Gonzalez is really the only one maybe Young to a lesser extent. Masset was ok. Hudson only pitched 50 or so after the Sox and Escobar has played in only about 180 with an OPS of 668.

 

That really isn't much compared to all the moves.

Eduardo Escobar has turned himself into a solid defensive shortstop and has already put up 2 WAR on this season. He's effectively been a $10 million+ player this year. His OPS this year is also >700, which isn't bad from the shortstop spot.

[ptatc]

Peavy's injury and 2011 Rios fit on that list also along with the other 2 deals blowing up.

How can fault a GM for weird injuries in pitchers without a history of arm injuries? Neither deal was one of the crazy 7 year deals. They were considered good deals at the time.

[ptatc]

Eduardo Escobar has turned himself into a solid defensive shortstop and has already put up 2 WAR on this season. He's effectively been a $10 million+ player this year. His OPS this year is also >700, which isn't bad from the shortstop spot.

It's not bad. But he is still mostly a part time player. I don't think anyone still looks at him and says "I'd really like to have him." He was still worth the chance that Liriano could have helped. The Sox aren't really worse off without him.

[witesoxfan]

Gonzalez is really the only one maybe Young to a lesser extent. Masset was ok. Hudson only pitched 50 or so after the Sox and Escobar has played in only about 180 with an OPS of 668.

 

That really isn't much compared to all the moves.

 

Young was a very good, valueable player in the first few years of his career. He's fallen off the map offensively and may be nearing the end of the road simply because he's no longer an effective hitter, but if the Sox had him instead of Brian Anderson in 2006, they could have won the division (using pre-determined destiny and making assumptions and all that).

 

Dan Hudson had a phenomenal year in 2011 but he's been quite injury prone since, requiring two Tommy Johns. In hindsight, that's not a horrendous trade, but it still wasn't a great one.

 

Eduardo Escobar has hit fairly well this year and has gotten fairly good reviews defensively at SS (which was his biggest drawing point as a minor leaguer), so it's fair to assume that will remain solid as well. Like I said, I didn't mind giving him up, but having him in the system right now would have made the decision to move Ramirez a lot easier to justify. (and, to caulfield this post, had the kept Escobar, they may have gotten rid of Alexei sooner which may have influenced Abreu and he might be in Colorado right now instead of Chicago).

 

[Balta1701]

How can fault a GM for weird injuries in pitchers without a history of arm injuries? Neither deal was one of the crazy 7 year deals. They were considered good deals at the time.

The post I replied to did not assign fault, it simply noted that Dunn and Danks were the 2 biggest problems in the last 4 years. I felt Rios's failure and Peavy's injury have to be on that list as they sabotaged the "all-in" season as well.

 

And of course, its worth noting that "deals which seem good at the time" isn't a standard by which a successful GM will be evaluated, but instead it's going to be whether in the long term those deals were correct. If your team spends $100 million per year and half that money is spent on people who get injured or massively underperform their expectation, then a reasonable conclusion is that your GM isn't doing a very good job of making player decisions even if they appear solid at the time.

[ptatc]

The post I replied to did not assign fault, it simply noted that Dunn and Danks were the 2 biggest problems in the last 4 years. I felt Rios's failure and Peavy's injury have to be on that list as they sabotaged the "all-in" season as well.

 

And of course, its worth noting that "deals which seem good at the time" isn't a standard by which a successful GM will be evaluated, but instead it's going to be whether in the long term those deals were correct. If your team spends $100 million per year and half that money is spent on people who get injured or massively underperform their expectation, then a reasonable conclusion is that your GM isn't doing a very good job of making player decisions even if they appear solid at the time.

I agree that the GM should be evaluated based on the players under performance. However, I disagree that it's a reasonable conclusion that injuries should be held against them, if there is no injury history. That is an impossibility to predict. Especially, when the deals were team favorable at the time.

 

the only deal that was really a calculated risk that failed was Rios.

 

when doing evaluations you are really assigning praise for good things and fault for the bad things. If you say bad things happened but did not assign them the fault, then it isn't their fault and the evaluation of the GM would have to be positive.

Edited August 20, 2014 by ptatc