People gotta quit sleeping on Marcus Semien

[thxfrthmmrs]

Since July 4th at AAA Charlotte, Semien has the following line in 50 games:

 

.317 AVG

.431 OBP

.562 SLG

.245 ISO

.387 BABIP

225 PA

183 AB

58 H

35 BB

33 K

41 R

14 2B

2 3B

9 HR

33 RBI

6 SB

0 CS

4 HBP

3 SF

 

I am pretty sure his BABIP is .340, not .387

 

I dont think this is a fluke stretch by any means. With guys like him and Micah, it take a while for them to adjust to the league, and once they adjust, they will stay consistent and rarely go on extended slumps.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Not if we want a rotation spot for Carlos Rodon early next year. If Rodon is in the minors for all of 2015 fine, but if Noesi was just doing what he was doing right now for the Sox next year, replacing him with a rookie would be something of a "white flag" move, a step backwards mid-season.

 

It's not a stretch to imagine Noesi struggling next year. I wouldn't also bank on the other 4 starters staying healthy the entire year, especially Sale.

[Balta1701]

It's not a stretch to imagine Noesi struggling next year. I wouldn't also bank on the other 4 starters staying healthy the entire year, especially Sale.

That's fine. But you can't rely on those things to happen in order to clear Rodon a rotation spot unless you're willing to keep him in the minors the whole year if they don't happen.

 

If Noesi has a solid start and shows he's learning how to be a better starter, do you keep Rodon in AAA the full year? If Sale doesn't get hurt, do you keep Rodon in AAA the whole year?

 

If the goal is for Rodon to enter the rotation you can't have him in a place where you're counting on one of those things to happen. Those issues are an argument that we should have a backup plan other than Rodon if the goal is for him to be in the big leagues early next season.

[Jerksticks]

Semien has AAA figured out. 2B should be his job to lose next spring.

[Dick Allen]

That's fine. But you can't rely on those things to happen in order to clear Rodon a rotation spot unless you're willing to keep him in the minors the whole year if they don't happen.

 

If Noesi has a solid start and shows he's learning how to be a better starter, do you keep Rodon in AAA the full year? If Sale doesn't get hurt, do you keep Rodon in AAA the whole year?

 

If the goal is for Rodon to enter the rotation you can't have him in a place where you're counting on one of those things to happen. Those issues are an argument that we should have a backup plan other than Rodon if the goal is for him to be in the big leagues early next season.

If Rodon is deserving of a spot in the rotation, Rodon will have a spot in the rotation. C'mon man. There is no team in baseball with too much starting pitching. And no team in baseball keeps Carlos Rodon in the minors if he is ready because of guys like Hector Noesi or other mediocrity like him. Just name one season with one team where a spot wouldn't be open for Rodon if he was ready.

 

The Sox have Sale, Q, and then a bunch of guys who can't hold Rodon's jock.

 

Any team that banks on having 5 starters all year long is probably in for a long season. I think the 2005 White Sox tied a record with 6.

Edited August 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

If Rodon is deserving of a spot in the rotation, Rodon will have a spot in the rotation. C'mon man. There is no team in baseball with too much starting pitching. And no team in baseball keeps Carlos Rodon in the minors if he is ready because of guys like Hector Noesi or other mediocrity like him. Just name one season with one team where a spot wouldn't be open for Rodon if he was ready.

 

The Sox have Sale, Q, and then a bunch of guys who can't hold Rodon's jock.

 

Any team that banks on having 5 starters all year long is probably in for a long season. I think the 2005 White Sox tied a record with 6.

 

The White Sox did something very similar with Brandon McCarthy FWIW.

[thxfrthmmrs]

That's fine. But you can't rely on those things to happen in order to clear Rodon a rotation spot unless you're willing to keep him in the minors the whole year if they don't happen.

 

If Noesi has a solid start and shows he's learning how to be a better starter, do you keep Rodon in AAA the full year? If Sale doesn't get hurt, do you keep Rodon in AAA the whole year?

 

If the goal is for Rodon to enter the rotation you can't have him in a place where you're counting on one of those things to happen. Those issues are an argument that we should have a backup plan other than Rodon if the goal is for him to be in the big leagues early next season.

 

My original premise is I believe Hahn should pull the trigger this off season and turn this team into a playoff contender, and I believe it doesn't require a complete overhaul. Though I believe a solid number 2 starter, i.e. Jame Shields, is a must (I still believe Q is more of a 3 than 2).

 

If our goal is to be competitive, we can't center our roster moves around when or how exactly to bring up Rodon. If we believe he's ready to start next year, then maybe we do not need to sign a starter. However, if he needs some fine tuning in the minors, then yes, this team absolutely needs to bring in a guy like Shields. We will bring up Rodon when he's ready and when there is a need for him on the team. And as I said, I think it's highly likely we will be able to insert him into the rotation one way or another.

 

And if he isn't ready to start next year and we do not have a open spot for him mid season, I am completely fine with leaving him down in the minors until September and bring him up to fortify our bullpen for a playoff run.

 

If we want to compete next year, we can't save a roster spot for Rodon and wait till he's ready to take it.

[Balta1701]

My original premise is I believe Hahn should pull the trigger this off season and turn this team into a playoff contender, and I believe it doesn't require a complete overhaul. Though I believe a solid number 2 starter, i.e. Jame Shields, is a must (I still believe Q is more of a 3 than 2).

 

If our goal is to be competitive, we can't center our roster moves around when or how exactly to bring up Rodon. If we believe he's ready to start next year, then maybe we do not need to sign a starter. However, if he needs some fine tuning in the minors, then yes, this team absolutely needs to bring in a guy like Shields. We will bring up Rodon when he's ready and when there is a need for him on the team. And as I said, I think it's highly likely we will be able to insert him into the rotation one way or another.

 

And if he isn't ready to start next year and we do not have a open spot for him mid season, I am completely fine with leaving him down in the minors until September and bring him up to fortify our bullpen for a playoff run.

 

If we want to compete next year, we can't save a roster spot for Rodon and wait till he's ready to take it.

The only way it makes sense to me to go after a guy like Shields, especially given his age, is if John Danks is cleared out of the rotation or there is some other trade that clears a spot.

 

I continue to say that spending $15 million+ on the upgrade from Noesi to Shields is a drop in the bucket move with as many other issues as this team has. It picks up ~2 WAR. This team is >> 2 WAR from being competitive for a playoff spot.

[thxfrthmmrs]

If Rodon is deserving of a spot in the rotation, Rodon will have a spot in the rotation. C'mon man. There is no team in baseball with too much starting pitching. And no team in baseball keeps Carlos Rodon in the minors if he is ready because of guys like Hector Noesi or other mediocrity like him. Just name one season with one team where a spot wouldn't be open for Rodon if he was ready.

 

The Sox have Sale, Q, and then a bunch of guys who can't hold Rodon's jock.

 

Any team that banks on having 5 starters all year long is probably in for a long season. I think the 2005 White Sox tied a record with 6.

 

This.

 

If we want to compete, then let Rodon earn a spot, instead of not signing another quality starter and roll both Carrol and Noesi out there and hope Rodon will be ready at some point.

[thxfrthmmrs]

The only way it makes sense to me to go after a guy like Shields, especially given his age, is if John Danks is cleared out of the rotation or there is some other trade that clears a spot.

 

I continue to say that spending $15 million+ on the upgrade from Noesi to Shields is a drop in the bucket move with as many other issues as this team has. It picks up ~2 WAR. This team is >> 2 WAR from being competitive for a playoff spot.

 

I think WAR is a nice tool to evaluate an individual player, but I don't think it directly correlates to actual wins. But if you want to measure next year's potential team by WAR, we can

 

Replacing Carrol with Shields = +3 WAR

Replacing blackholes in bullpen with let's say Andrew Miller and Sergio Romo = +3 WAR

Replacing Dunn (0 WAR) with league average DH, let's say Delmon Young = +1 WAR

Replacing Leury Garcia, Paul Konerko (- 2 WAR) with let's say Bonifacio or Saladio and Wilkins = +2 WAR (assuming they will be 0 WAR players)

 

Having a full year of Sanchez, Eaton, Avi, Semien, over Beckham, De Aza, and Viciedo, I am projecting + 1.5 WAR

 

This currently a 18.5 WAR team according to Fangraphs, + 11.5 WAR increase, will put us ahead of teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, and Mariners.

 

 

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

I am pretty sure his BABIP is .340, not .387

 

I dont think this is a fluke stretch by any means. With guys like him and Micah, it take a while for them to adjust to the league, and once they adjust, they will stay consistent and rarely go on extended slumps.

 

You are correct. My bad I didn't take out the HRs.

[Balta1701]

I think WAR is a nice tool to evaluate an individual player, but I don't think it directly correlates to actual wins. But if you want to measure next year's potential team by WAR, we can

 

Replacing Carrol with Shields = +3 WAR

Replacing blackholes in bullpen with let's say Andrew Miller and Sergio Romo = +3 WAR

Replacing Dunn (0 WAR) with league average DH, let's say Delmon Young = +1 WAR

Replacing Leury Garcia, Paul Konerko (- 2 WAR) with let's say Bonifacio or Saladio and Wilkins = +2 WAR (assuming they will be 0 WAR players)

 

Having a full year of Sanchez, Eaton, Avi, Semien, over Beckham, De Aza, and Viciedo, I am projecting + 1.5 WAR

 

This currently a 18.5 WAR team according to Fangraphs, + 11.5 WAR increase, will put us ahead of teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, and Mariners.

Worth noting a couple instant problems. Delmon Young has only 200 plate appearances this season, and Adam Dunn is already an above average DH offensively. The reason Young is worth more in WAR than Dunn is that Dunn is a slightly worse fielder. He's also been worse than Dunn the last 2 seasons. Decent chance if you gave him 400+ PA's as your DH that you're talking about a negative value player there as well.

 

Sergio Romo + Andrew Miller this year = 1.4 WAR, not 3.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Worth noting a couple instant problems. Delmon Young has only 200 plate appearances this season, and Adam Dunn is already an above average DH offensively. The reason Young is worth more in WAR than Dunn is that Dunn is a slightly worse fielder. He's also been worse than Dunn the last 2 seasons. Decent chance if you gave him 400+ PA's as your DH that you're talking about a negative value player there as well.

 

Sergio Romo + Andrew Miller this year = 1.4 WAR, not 3.

 

That just proves that you can't look at WAR by itself, because on paper, Young is a +1 WAR player and Dunn is at 0 WAR. The Red Sox, for instance, has a higher team WAR than the Yankees, but they are 11 games worse.

 

Regardless of WAR, I like the prospects of Delmon Young at DH because he historically does very well vs lefties, and you can have him for cheap. Platoon him with Wilkins or whoever, we should have solid offense and also defensive flexibility compared to just Dunn and Konerko, at a fraction of the cost.

 

Romo is having a bad season, but is historically a 1+ WAR player, I think this is the time to get him for cheap. Generally if you spend $5 mil+ for a reliever, you'd expect quality one.

 

I am also underestimating the improvement the collective group of Eaton, Garcia, Sanchez, and Semien is going to make, but you get the point. If we can get a #2 or 3 starter, a couple of quality bullpen arms, solidify our bench, and the young guys take a step forward next year, there's no reason this team can't compete next year.

Edited August 27, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[Balta1701]

That just proves that you can't look at WAR by itself, because on paper, Young is a +1 WAR player and Dunn is at 0 WAR. The Red Sox, for instance, has a higher team WAR than the Yankees, but they are 11 games worse.

 

Regardless of WAR, I like the prospects of Delmon Young at DH because he historically does very well vs lefties, and you can have him for cheap. Platoon him with Wilkins or whoever, we should have solid offense and also defensive flexibility compared to just Dunn and Konerko, at a fraction of the cost.

 

Romo is having a bad season, but is historically a 1+ WAR player, I think this is the time to get him for cheap. Generally if you spend $5 mil+ for a reliever, you'd expect quality one.

 

I am also underestimating the improvement the collective group of Eaton, Garcia, Sanchez, and Semien is going to make, but you get the point. If we can get a #2 or 3 starter, a couple of quality bullpen arms, solidify our bench, and the young guys take a step forward next year, there's no reason this team can't compete next year.

Basically just right there it looks like you're talking about 5+ different free agent signings led by a top of the rotation starter. Do you see why this is getting really rough? And just the guys you listed right there don't include the DH you want and that leaves Viciedo/De Aza as a weakness in the corner OF.

[hi8is]

Basically just right there it looks like you're talking about 5+ different free agent signings led by a top of the rotation starter. Do you see why this is getting really rough?

That's actually not out of the realm of possibility. In the 2004 offseason leading to 2005 - we brought in 8 new players via trades and free agency... if my memory serves me correct.

 

Hanh's real opportunity to shine begins this off season and I've got faith that it's going to be a huge time for our franchise.

[Jerksticks]

The Sox need a badass RHSP. Scherzer, Shields or trade. That would absorb much of the other deficiencies. We need to plug that hole IMO. Use the cash for that. Can't have all pre-arb players.

 

And that bullpen, mercy. Address that s*** for sure but I think adding another 200IP horse would help the bullpen immensely.

[Balta1701]

That's actually not out of the realm of possibility. In the 2004 offseason leading to 2005 - we brought in 8 new players via trades and free agency... if my memory serves me correct.

 

Hanh's real opportunity to shine begins this off season and I've got faith that it's going to be a huge time for our franchise.

If the White Sox pull off something via trade that significantly improves this team it could definitely change the calculus, but as it stands right now I don't believe this team could be turned into a competitive team next year via free agency.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Basically just right there it looks like you're talking about 5+ different free agent signings led by a top of the rotation starter. Do you see why this is getting really rough? And just the guys you listed right there don't include the DH you want and that leaves Viciedo/De Aza as a weakness in the corner OF.

 

If you want to go from a below .500 team to a playoff contender, you got to make moves. Has it ever not been the case? What's the alternative? Wait on your prospects like the Pirates and Royals did?

 

If there's ever a time to make moves, it's this off season. We have ~$55-60 mil committed (including pre-arb, and arb guys in Flowers, Jones, and Noesi) next year. We won't have to risk losing a pick in signing guys, and division is as wide open as ever.

 

With the money coming off the books, it's almost guaranteed we will spend money somewhere, I don't think the guys I am proposing is considered asking for the moon, considering it's 1 starter, 2 bullpen arms, part time DH, and 2 bench players who could be sourced from the farm.

Edited August 27, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[Balta1701]

With the money coming off the books, it's almost guaranteed we will spend money somewhere, I don't think the guys I am proposing is considered asking for the moon, considering it's 1 starter, 2 bullpen arms, part time DH, and 2 bench players who could be sourced from the farm.

I don't think that does it alone. 2 bullpen arms, one of whom is a closing candidate, would IMO have pushed us up to an adequate bullpen this year but it wouldn't have been above average. That'd be maybe 4 decent relievers in the pen, the 2 FA signees, Putnam, and Petricka. Better than this year but still missing a lot of parts. Then you still have a major hole at LF, a DH spot only filled part time, a weak catcher, an OF where 2 guys regularly get hurt and the backups are Sierra and Danks, and an IF where one guy we are iffy about whether to believe in what he's done this season and where the 2b is a rookie.

 

You're not selling me very well on being able to do this for the $30 mil you suggested we might have available.

[hi8is]

You're not selling me very well on being able to do this for the $30 mil you suggested we might have available.

I sure hope that more than 30M is available.

[Jerksticks]

I sure hope that more than 30M is available.

Me too. 60M sounds nice.

[greg775]

Me too. 60M sounds nice.

This truly is an interesting dilemma for the Sox. With Konerko and Dunn leaving and Beckham gone and Viciedo and DeAza probably leaving, the Sox can start to completely change the makeup of the everyday lineup. The Sox also need pitching.

If the Sox finish last again next season, this is one of the bleakest stretches in franchise history. Fans are going to completely give up on the White Sox and you will be seeing crowds of 15,000 pretty much every night.

 

Does the front office realize it's a crisis situation? They should. The team without a major overhaul will be picked last in the division next year again. That's three straight last place finishes. That can DECIMATE a fan base of a franchise like the White Sox. I hope Hahn attacks the offseason as crisis mode and gets some ballplayers.

[Balta1701]

I sure hope that more than 30M is available.

 

 

Me too. 60M sounds nice.

We have ~$55-60 mil committed (including pre-arb, and arb guys in Flowers, Jones, and Noesi) next year.

 

That leaves me thinking that there's probably some money for an extension and probably about $30 million to spend. Don't forget we also spent a ton on the draft and international signing periods this year as well. Including paying the overage penalty on the draft.

[hi8is]

That leaves me thinking that there's probably some money for an extension and probably about $30 million to spend. Don't forget we also spent a ton on the draft and international signing periods this year as well. Including paying the overage penalty on the draft.

It's another reason I'm all for moving Danks. That's another 14M.

[ron883]

I thought this thread was about Marcus?