People gotta quit sleeping on Marcus Semien

[Balta1701]

Not to mention their expenses have gone up a lot this year with the much higher amateur spending.

The Sox started with a 2013 payroll of about $120 million, moved around $10 million out of the way during the season, and lost $5 million as a franchise on the year based on the Forbes numbers. So $105 million would have been the maximum, break-even point that year.

 

This year, they've spent an extra $8 million on amateur signings and have had revenues erode probably by >$5 million again. They've got $20 million in additional TV money, but that basically is eaten up by the revenue erosion and the fact that money was lost last year.

 

It seems like $100 million is pretty close to a hard cap for this team, and it shouldn't be surprising if they're significantly under that, especially coming off a year when Forbes has them losing money.

[Balta1701]

So JR was lying when he said the team will make money this year? And Hahn is lying when he said he was going to spend some money this offseason if his targets are available?

The White Sox's committed payroll next year is $60 million assuming they offer arb to 3 guys and cut loose Viciedo and De Aza. IMO, the Sox's break-even point next year is probably around $100 million, maybe just under it depending on where they wind up in the draft. I don't know how Abreu's signing bonus works out but that is real money that fits somewhere on the list.

 

The reason the team will be profitable this year is that they cut back on the payroll to under $85 million, leaving them some room under the $105 million-ish break even point. That's a 33% payroll decrease compared to last year. They should make money at that level.

 

The Sox have money to spend this offseason, and I think the limit is about $30 million. That doesn't leave a lot of money if there is a single big signing. There's room for 1 and some small pieces alongside, but you do have to ask yourself whether that's the right move this year.

 

Personally, I remain unconvinced that there is any set of moves the White Sox could make for $30 million-ish that would put this team in the playoffs next year, and therefore I hesitate on spending it.

 

If there were a trade that either clears Danks's salary or fills one of the major needs of this team without significantly depleting that money, then I could be convinced that a single big signing and a few bullpen pieces does make this a playoff contender. However, at this time, I'm focusing solely on the free agent side of things.

[Dick Allen]

The White Sox's committed payroll next year is $60 million assuming they offer arb to 3 guys and cut loose Viciedo and De Aza. IMO, the Sox's break-even point next year is probably around $100 million, maybe just under it depending on where they wind up in the draft. I don't know how Abreu's signing bonus works out but that is real money that fits somewhere on the list.

 

The reason the team will be profitable this year is that they cut back on the payroll to under $85 million, leaving them some room under the $105 million-ish break even point. That's a 33% payroll decrease compared to last year. They should make money at that level.

 

The Sox have money to spend this offseason, and I think the limit is about $30 million. That doesn't leave a lot of money if there is a single big signing. There's room for 1 and some small pieces alongside, but you do have to ask yourself whether that's the right move this year.

 

Personally, I remain unconvinced that there is any set of moves the White Sox could make for $30 million-ish that would put this team in the playoffs next year, and therefore I hesitate on spending it.

 

If there were a trade that either clears Danks's salary or fills one of the major needs of this team without significantly depleting that money, then I could be convinced that a single big signing and a few bullpen pieces does make this a playoff contender. However, at this time, I'm focusing solely on the free agent side of things.

 

Fortunately, just like the rest of us, you are just an poster on the internets, and no one really has to convince you of anything when it comes to White Sox player moves.

[Balta1701]

Fortunately, just like the rest of us, you are just an poster on the internets, and no one really has to convince you of anything when it comes to White Sox player moves.

But when people say that the White Sox are going to spend more than that, I think that's a pretty solid case that there's a $35 million-ish ceiling to what they have to play with this year and they might stay well under it.

 

It's like the person who suggested Delmon Young. As you said, it's just a post on the internet, but the odds of the Chairman spending money on a person who ranted about the f***ing Jews seem low to me.

[Dick Allen]

But when people say that the White Sox are going to spend more than that, I think that's a pretty solid case that there's a $35 million-ish ceiling to what they have to play with this year and they might stay well under it.

 

It's like the person who suggested Delmon Young. As you said, it's just a post on the internet, but the odds of the Chairman spending money on a person who ranted about the f***ing Jews seem low to me.

If Delmon Young was a different kind of player, JR could learn to forgive, but he's a RH DH who generally kills the White Sox and is a journeyman against everyone else.

 

IMO, the team showed their cards going after Tanaka. They won't spend to spend, but will if their specific targets are available. They have always seemed to stretch their limits in the past. When they had no money, the found some to add Peavy and Rios. They found some to trade for EJax. They found $4 million laying around for a month of Manny. After they signed Dunn, everyone assumed AJ and Paulie were gone. They were brought back. When JR was asked where he had the money, because the company line had always been they break even every year, he said "you save a little here, save a little there". To say anyone here really has any idea what the payroll limit is would be crazy, but we do know it is usually higher than the White Sox initially claim.They have been a very profitable team except for 2013 the past 25 years. And teams that lose 99 games shouldn't be profitable.

Edited August 28, 2014 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

If Delmon Young was a different kind of player, JR could learn to forgive, but he's a RH DH who generally kills the White Sox and is a journeyman against everyone else.

 

IMO, the team showed their cards going after Tanaka. They won't spend to spend, but will if their specific targets are available. They have always seemed to stretch their limits in the past. When they had no money, the found some to add Peavy and Rios. They found some to trade for EJax. They found $4 million laying around for a month of Manny. After they signed Dunn, everyone assumed AJ and Paulie were gone. They were brought back. When JR was asked where he had the money, because the company line had always been they break even every year, he said "you save a little here, save a little there". To say anyone here really has any idea what the payroll limit is would be crazy, but we do know it is usually higher than the White Sox initially claim.They have been a very profitable team except for 2013 the past 25 years. And teams that lose 99 games shouldn't be profitable.

Under the current revenue structure, this isn't true, however.

[southsider2k5]

But when people say that the White Sox are going to spend more than that, I think that's a pretty solid case that there's a $35 million-ish ceiling to what they have to play with this year and they might stay well under it.

 

It's like the person who suggested Delmon Young. As you said, it's just a post on the internet, but the odds of the Chairman spending money on a person who ranted about the f***ing Jews seem low to me.

 

Exactly. A $100 million dollar payroll is the absolute ceiling for next year with a common sense look at things. It wouldn't be "easy" by any stretch.

[southsider2k5]

Tommy Viola ‏@Tommy_the_V 18m

 

.@KnightsBaseball Marcus Semien enters tonight's game having reached base in 22-straight games. He's hitting .384 over that stretch.

[chitownsportsfan]

Tommy Viola ‏@Tommy_the_V 18m

 

.@KnightsBaseball Marcus Semien enters tonight's game having reached base in 22-straight games. He's hitting .384 over that stretch.

 

The challenged him to respond and he has. I am really feeling OK about a Marcus Semien / De Aza platoon in LF next year with Marcus also able to platoon a bit with Conor at 3B and emergency fill in at 2B. Someone compared Semian to Zobrist and I kinda challenged that notion but if he can hit 270/340/400 and play 3 different positions well that's a poor man's zobrist and that's like a 2-3 WAR player.

 

I really like what Semien has done since the demotion great mental toughness allowing his talent to come through.

[Balta1701]

The challenged him to respond and he has. I am really feeling OK about a Marcus Semien / De Aza platoon in LF next year with Marcus also able to platoon a bit with Conor at 3B and emergency fill in at 2B. Someone compared Semian to Zobrist and I kinda challenged that notion but if he can hit 270/340/400 and play 3 different positions well that's a poor man's zobrist and that's like a 2-3 WAR player.

 

I really like what Semien has done since the demotion great mental toughness allowing his talent to come through.

I am not paying $7 million for a mediocre platoon LF.

[chitownsportsfan]

I am not paying $7 million for a mediocre platoon LF.

 

Cost of doing business these days. It's not like they can't just dump De Aza if Semien is raking or they bring in someone better. I don't think it should be plan A (plan A would be getting another stud young OF similar in upside to Avi) but as a backup plan it's not bad.

[Eminor3rd]

Cost of doing business these days. It's not like they can't just dump De Aza if Semien is raking or they bring in someone better. I don't think it should be plan A (plan A would be getting another stud young OF similar in upside to Avi) but as a backup plan it's not bad.

 

Why don't you want Semien at 2B? If one of them has to move, Micah profiles much better in the OF because of his superior speed and inferior glovework.

[Balta1701]

Cost of doing business these days. It's not like they can't just dump De Aza if Semien is raking or they bring in someone better. I don't think it should be plan A (plan A would be getting another stud young OF similar in upside to Avi) but as a backup plan it's not bad.

Really, I think it's a pretty bad option. If there were any demand for De Aza at $5 million this year I have trouble believing he wouldn't be gone, he doesn't deserve that raise. If you're going to play Semien in the OF just put him out there and see what happens. There have to be more effective backup/platoon OF's available for less than that money. Hell, if you're really focused on a platoon out there, throw Danks in it.

[southsider2k5]

I am not paying $7 million for a mediocre platoon LF.

 

Agreed. De Aza and Viciedo's days in Chicago are numbered.

[Balta1701]

Why don't you want Semien at 2B? If one of them has to move, Micah profiles much better in the OF because of his superior speed and inferior glovework.

Micah also profiles much worse in the OF because of a weaker throwing arm and already having surgery on his arm, making long throws turn him into even more of an injury risk.

 

Micah is the one guy the White Sox org clearly said "He's a 2b". Micah hasn't played anywhere else at all. He's not moving.

[chitownsportsfan]

Why don't you want Semien at 2B? If one of them has to move, Micah profiles much better in the OF because of his superior speed and inferior glovework.

 

I want Sanchez at 2B. I want Alexei to stick around until the deadline (or thereabouts) so they can get another 60 game look at Anderson in AA. If Anderson looks '16 ready then they have some options.

 

I don't think Micah has a future as anything other than a utility guy. Not impressed with his ability to stay healthy or his bat really. Yea he's fast, it's a tool, but he has a lot to improve on to get that speed to play.

Edited August 29, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Listened to a Fangraphs Audio podcast, and Carson Cistulli brought up Marcus Semien as being "one of his guys", and Dave Cameron immediately shot him down saying he's terrible.

 

Just thought I'd leave that here.

[Balta1701]

Listened to a Fangraphs Audio podcast, and Carson Cistulli brought up Marcus Semien as being "one of his guys", and Dave Cameron immediately shot him down saying he's terrible.

 

Just thought I'd leave that here.

I know who 1 of those guys is.

[NorthSideSox72]

Why don't you want Semien at 2B? If one of them has to move, Micah profiles much better in the OF because of his superior speed and inferior glovework.

 

 

Micah also profiles much worse in the OF because of a weaker throwing arm and already having surgery on his arm, making long throws turn him into even more of an injury risk.

 

Micah is the one guy the White Sox org clearly said "He's a 2b". Micah hasn't played anywhere else at all. He's not moving.

 

I agree with Balta. Micah in the OF doesn't make much sense other than speed, and the org has said repeatedly he's a 2B. Semien has a stronger arm, doesn't have multiple instances of surgery on his throwing arm, has already played some OF, has played good defense at multiple positions, and also by the way has some speed (though obviusly not at Micah's level).

 

For you guys arguing these topics, did you read the piece I pinned in the other thread? Any thoughts on the take-aways?

 

[chitownsportsfan]

I know who 1 of those guys is.

 

Cameron was pretty down on another 2B named Robbie Cano and he turned out OK. Cameron famously said that Cano would be a "270/300/380 type with a butcher's glove at 2B".

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I know who 1 of those guys is.

 

Cistulli is a quirky, funny linguist of sorts who hosts these podcasts. His thing is always picking out fringy prospects to love in hopes they will become stars and he can be the guy who believed in them all along. I guess you could say he's a hipster prospect guy. Anyway, one of these such fringy prospects he loves is Marcus Semien, almost exclusively for his expert plate discipline.

 

In fact, here is a feature he does on these types of guys. Semien has been included in the past, I'm almost certain.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-...e-prospects-39/

[Eminor3rd]

Listened to a Fangraphs Audio podcast, and Carson Cistulli brought up Marcus Semien as being "one of his guys", and Dave Cameron immediately shot him down saying he's terrible.

 

Just thought I'd leave that here.

 

Cistulli has been on Semien almost as soon as we all were. He always digs for guys with good plate discipline and tries to blow him up. I posted a bunch of Cistulli's stuff in Semien's AAP last year.

[Eminor3rd]

Cameron was pretty down on another 2B named Robbie Cano and he turned out OK. Cameron famously said that Cano would be a "270/300/380 type with a butcher's glove at 2B".

 

To be fair, almost no one thought Cano would be good.