People gotta quit sleeping on Marcus Semien

[southsider2k5]

I thought this thread was about Marcus?

 

Thankfully on Soxtalk, topics never waiver.

[Balta1701]

It's another reason I'm all for moving Danks. That's another 14M.

If it could be done then I suddenly become strongly in favor of adding an expensive starting pitcher. I don't believe it can be done, especially not in the offseason when teams have FA options available.

 

I was hoping there'd be a chance at the trade deadline where a team would take him on to help satisfy a need right now without having to give anything back, maybe with the Sox chipping in a tad bit of money, but either we weren't willing or more likely we weren't able to do that.

[hi8is]

If it could be done then I suddenly become strongly in favor of adding an expensive starting pitcher. I don't believe it can be done, especially not in the offseason when teams have FA options available.

 

I was hoping there'd be a chance at the trade deadline where a team would take him on to help satisfy a need right now without having to give anything back, maybe with the Sox chipping in a tad bit of money, but either we weren't willing or more likely we weren't able to do that.

I'm still crossing my fingers that we unload him before the waiver deadline or can swap another bad contract for a piece at another position who we feel we can fix. We gotta free up that money to drop on a top shelf right handed starter... Especially if we're only talking 30M to work with.

 

Jesus.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I don't think that does it alone. 2 bullpen arms, one of whom is a closing candidate, would IMO have pushed us up to an adequate bullpen this year but it wouldn't have been above average. That'd be maybe 4 decent relievers in the pen, the 2 FA signees, Putnam, and Petricka. Better than this year but still missing a lot of parts.

 

I lost track of how many games we blew because of bullpen issues, and our backend starting pitching has been spotty at best. I'd focus our needs around pitching this offseason if I were Hahn.

 

One of the primary reasons for the bullpen's downfall is guys were asked to do more than they are capable of. If we stabilize the pen with a couple of high leverage inning guys, I think that puts us in a good spot, and put the other guys in a better position to succeed. Plus, bullpen is one of those areas that can be significantly improved from year to year.

 

If we go for a pen of:

 

Closer: Romo/Petricka

Andrew Miller

Romo/Petricka

Putnam

Lindstrom

Guerra/Webb

Snodgress

 

This should at least be a league average bullpen. (Anything without Beli, Cleto, Veal, Thompson, and guest appearances from Leury and Dunn for that matter)

 

And replacing Carrol with Shield is a significant upgrade, no justification needed.

 

Then you still have a major hole at LF,

 

Marcus Semien. Kid is ready, and he's a high IQ player who can at least provide league average defense in outfield.

 

a DH spot only filled part time,

 

Rotate Wilkins, Young, and Gillapsie. I think it's time to move away from the full time DH philosophy. Rotating DH should gives us better defensive flexibility and matchup options. The combination of Dunn and Konerko has yield a negative offensive value for us this year (despite Dunn's moment of brilliance), I can't see this option being any worse than this year.

 

a weak catcher,

 

Offense from catching has gone down league wide. I'd give a full year for Tyler with his magical glasses. Defensively, he's been good.

 

an OF where 2 guys regularly get hurt and the backups are Sierra and Danks,

 

It's too early to label those two as injury prones. Their injuries this year were flukes. If you run this organization, you have to build this team with faith that these two can stay healthy. Otherwise, you'd look to replace them.

 

and an IF where one guy we are iffy about whether to believe in what he's done this season

 

Fair point. But I'd like to note that part of Gillaspie's success is a result of him cutting down his K%, which is more align with his career number in the minors than last year's %. He might not hit .320 again, but .280-10-60 still within reach.

 

and where the 2b is a rookie.

 

Gordon's set the bar so low offensively, there is no reason to think Sanchez/Micah can't at least replicate or top that.

 

You're not selling me very well on being able to do this for the $30 mil you suggested we might have available.

 

I'd like to hear your plan for this off season.

Edited August 27, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[ron883]

Nobody can stop talking about the Cubs rebuild now a days with Baez and Soler up. If Semien was on the Cubs, they would clamor about him as being a big piece in their minor league system probably. He is a perfect #2 hitter.

[Balta1701]

By the way, since Delmon Young got brought up, it's worth remembering why Delmon Young will never, ever play for the Chicago White Sox.

[Chicago White Sox]

I still don't know where this $30M talk comes from. We have $46M in salary commitments for next year and only a handful of arbitration eligible players likely to be back. There is no reason we can't afford $100M+ payroll if we so choose. That gives us a good $45M to $50M to work with this offseason depending on which arbitration guys we decide to bring back next year.

 

The problem won't be a lack of money, it will be a lack of quality options to spend it on.

[Balta1701]

I still don't know where this $30M talk comes from. We have $46M in salary commitments for next year and only a handful of arbitration eligible players likely to be back. There is no reason we can't afford $100M+ payroll if we so choose. That gives us a good $45M to $50M to work with this offseason depending on which arbitration guys we decide to bring back next year.

 

The problem won't be a lack of money, it will be a lack of quality options to spend it on.

We're at $46 million in commitments right now. Even assuming that we only offer arbitration to guys like Jones and Flowers, non-tendering Viciedo and De Aza, we're still talking about around $10 million, maybe a few million less, for the couple guys we would actually offer. Then, filling out the majority of a roster with minimum salary guys is still going to push another $7-8 million assuming guys like Gillaspie get small raises. That puts us close to $60 million as a good starting point. $30 million in spending would push us beyond this year's payroll, and we also don't know how Abreu's signing bonus is being dealt with.

 

We could afford a $100 million payroll potentially but with the erosion in revenue over the last couple years, I doubt we see that any time soon.

[southsider2k5]

I still don't know where this $30M talk comes from. We have $46M in salary commitments for next year and only a handful of arbitration eligible players likely to be back. There is no reason we can't afford $100M+ payroll if we so choose. That gives us a good $45M to $50M to work with this offseason depending on which arbitration guys we decide to bring back next year.

 

The problem won't be a lack of money, it will be a lack of quality options to spend it on.

 

Considering the team lost money last year, and every revenue stream is pretty much promised to be down this season, and they just spent way more money on the minor league system then they have in the teams history... Yeah, it isn't hard to envision something decently under $100 million.

[BlackSox13]

And with the likelyhood of another high or at least higher draft slot in 2015 they will need some funds for that as well. Not that the Sox won't have money to spend.

[Chicago White Sox]

We're at $46 million in commitments right now. Even assuming that we only offer arbitration to guys like Jones and Flowers, non-tendering Viciedo and De Aza, we're still talking about around $10 million, maybe a few million less, for the couple guys we would actually offer. Then, filling out the majority of a roster with minimum salary guys is still going to push another $7-8 million assuming guys like Gillaspie get small raises. That puts us close to $60 million as a good starting point. $30 million in spending would push us beyond this year's payroll, and we also don't know how Abreu's signing bonus is being dealt with.

 

We could afford a $100 million payroll potentially but with the erosion in revenue over the last couple years, I doubt we see that any time soon.

Do you have access to their financials? How do you know how much erosion there has been to their revenue? I know they are now receiving $20M/year from the MLB TV deal. I also know they spent over $100M in 7 of the past 8 seasons prior to 2014. Furthermore, they made a serious f***ing offer for Tanaka.

 

Just because they decided to cut back on payroll a bit doesn't mean it was due to a lack of revenue. We all knew this was a transitional year and that they weren't going to spend just to spend. I have no doubt we could have gone into this year with a much higher payroll if Hahn wanted to. Next year should be no different, except that it sounds like Rick thinks we're much closer to being serious competitors.

[Chicago White Sox]

Considering the team lost money last year, and every revenue stream is pretty much promised to be down this season, and they just spent way more money on the minor league system then they have in the teams history... Yeah, it isn't hard to envision something decently under $100 million.

The Sox lost $2M last year with a $120M payroll and an absolutely horrific ticket pricing model. Add $20M in incremental revenue from the new national TV deal and it's nearly impossible to think we can't afford a $100M+ payroll.

[Balta1701]

Do you have access to their financials? How do you know how much erosion there has been to their revenue? I know they are now receiving $20M/year from the MLB TV deal. I also know they spent over $100M in 7 of the past 8 seasons prior to 2014. Furthermore, they made a serious f***ing offer for Tanaka.

 

Just because they decided to cut back on payroll a bit doesn't mean it was due to a lack of revenue. We all knew this was a transitional year and that they weren't going to spend just to spend. I have no doubt we could have gone into this year with a much higher payroll if Hahn wanted to. Next year should be no different, except that it sounds like Rick thinks we're much closer to being serious competitors.

Based on the Forbes numbers, the White Sox this year were down $15 million in revenue from previous years (and had the 2nd worst TV ratings in baseball last year). Forbes also had the team losing money last year.

[southsider2k5]

The Sox lost $2M last year with a $120M payroll and an absolutely horrific ticket pricing model. Add $20M in incremental revenue from the new national TV deal and it's nearly impossible to think we can't afford a $100M+ payroll.

 

That extra $20 million replaces most of what the team spent on amateurs and Jose Abreu's signing bonus this year.

[Chicago White Sox]

That extra $20 million replaces most of what the team spent on amateurs and Jose Abreu's signing bonus this year.

We're talking about next year? That $20M will still be there.

[Balta1701]

We're talking about next year? That $20M will still be there.

But we're also down over 1000 tickets per game sold, again, and that's prior to the weak numbers that appear in September. Every reason to believe that revenues outside of that $20 million have continued to decline. At best, we might be using that $20 million to tread water in revenue, and again, the team was estimated to lose money last year.

 

If they are going to bump payroll back up to $100 million, then we better either be certain we can put a winning team on the field and reverse those trends, or we better be ready for the Sox to go back to being hugely under-slot on the draft and international spending to pay for it.

[Chicago White Sox]

But we're also down over 1000 tickets per game sold, again, and that's prior to the weak numbers that appear in September. Every reason to believe that revenues outside of that $20 million have continued to decline. At best, we might be using that $20 million to tread water in revenue, and again, the team was estimated to lose money last year.

 

If they are going to bump payroll back up to $100 million, then we better either be certain we can put a winning team on the field and reverse those trends, or we better be ready for the Sox to go back to being hugely under-slot on the draft and international spending to pay for it.

1,000 tickets a game is worth how much exactly? And how has our average ticket price changed year over year?

 

Also, how much extra money did we spend on the draft and amateur international free agents in 2014 vs. 2013?

[southsider2k5]

1,000 tickets a game is worth how much exactly? And how has our average ticket price changed year over year?

 

Also, how much extra money did we spend on the draft and amateur international free agents in 2014 vs. 2013?

 

They supposedly earmarked $15 million this year. 2013 was around half of that, IIRC.

[Balta1701]

1,000 tickets a game is worth how much exactly? And how has our average ticket price changed year over year?

 

Also, how much extra money did we spend on the draft and amateur international free agents in 2014 vs. 2013?

Average ticket price dropped dramatically before 2013 when ticket prices were lowered & was pretty steady this year.

 

1000 tickets a game *26.05/ticket * 81 regular season games is $2 million in revenue just with that. Then add in all the other things not being paid for, and you're at $3 million+ drop in gate revenues so far this year, and that is likely to accelerate in September.

[southsider2k5]

Average ticket price dropped dramatically before 2013 when ticket prices were lowered & was pretty steady this year.

 

1000 tickets a game *26.05/ticket * 81 regular season games is $2 million in revenue just with that. Then add in all the other things not being paid for, and you're at $3 million+ drop in gate revenues so far this year, and that is likely to accelerate in September.

 

Advertising in the big one. For example... Remember the Jim Beam club? Lots of advertising has dropped as the ratings and team have fallen off.

[Dick Allen]

Considering the team lost money last year, and every revenue stream is pretty much promised to be down this season, and they just spent way more money on the minor league system then they have in the teams history... Yeah, it isn't hard to envision something decently under $100 million.

Incorrect. The TV contract put a healthy bump on White Sox revenues. JR already said the team will turn a profit, like they do just about every year. There is no reason for all the JR heirs on here to be worried. There is plenty of money. If there wasn't, Tanaka wouldn't have even been discussed.

Edited August 28, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

Incorrect. The TV contract put a healthy bump on White Sox revenues.

If the White Sox's revenues this year are $5 million less than the debacle last year, which is more than reasonable given the erosion at the gate I just discussed, then the White Sox's revenues including that TV deal are less than they were in 2012 without it based on the Forbes-reported revenue numbers.

 

Forbes showed White Sox revenues dropping by about $15 million in 2012-2013 and the team losing money in 2013. $20 million would basically just plug that gap if everything else stayed constant. Everything else has not stayed constant.

[southsider2k5]

If the White Sox's revenues this year are $5 million less than the debacle last year, which is more than reasonable given the erosion at the gate I just discussed, then the White Sox's revenues including that TV deal are less than they were in 2012 without it based on the Forbes-reported revenue numbers.

 

Forbes showed White Sox revenues dropping by about $15 million in 2012-2013 and the team losing money in 2013. $20 million would basically just plug that gap if everything else stayed constant. Everything else has not stayed constant.

 

Not to mention their expenses have gone up a lot this year with the much higher amateur spending.

[Dick Allen]

If the White Sox's revenues this year are $5 million less than the debacle last year, which is more than reasonable given the erosion at the gate I just discussed, then the White Sox's revenues including that TV deal are less than they were in 2012 without it based on the Forbes-reported revenue numbers.

 

Forbes showed White Sox revenues dropping by about $15 million in 2012-2013 and the team losing money in 2013. $20 million would basically just plug that gap if everything else stayed constant. Everything else has not stayed constant.

So JR was lying when he said the team will make money this year? And Hahn is lying when he said he was going to spend some money this offseason if his targets are available?

Edited August 28, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

So JR was lying when he said the team will make money this year? And Hahn is lying when he said he was going to spend some money this offseason if his targets are available?

 

You should probably go back and read the rest of the thread and then start over again. This discussion has never been about "losing money".