Better Future Core: Sox or Cubs?

[caulfield12]

Right, huge need for a DH bat, which really ought to be somebody who at the very least outhits Dunn this year.

 

With Gillaspie able to play 3B/1B and Semien able to play 2B/3B/LF, the Sox have the luxury of being able to pursue the two best hitters they can get, regardless of position, as long as at least one of the two can play a position other than DH/1B.

 

If the two best hitters they can get aren't better than Dunn, then just bring Dunn back.

 

Gillaspie at 3B and Dunn at DH >> Gillaspie at DH and Sandoval at 3B, at least from an offensive standpoint. Factor in that Sandoval is probably going to cost more than Dunn and it doesn't really make sense.

 

This is what you have to keep in mind if you want to move Gillaspie from 3B to DH: .812 is a fantastic OPS for a 3B. .812 is a decent OPS for a DH. Find somebody who will put up an OPS better than .812. If that guy happens to be a better 3B than Gillaspie, then fine, move Gillaspie to DH, but moving Gillaspie to DH so you can make room for a .755 OPS guy at 3B is counterproductive.

 

 

If Dunn is as valuable as his metrics would say in 2012/13/14, why has it been so impossible for Hahn to trade him?

 

And has Adam been a run-producing bat this year? Not really. He barely has 50 RBI's, for someone paid quite handsomely to produce them.

 

If you had the preseason 2015 odds for who's the most likely to finish in the Top 10 MVP voting in the AL, would it be Gillaspie, Sandoval or Dunn with the best odds? I just think a LOT of people are nervous about him replicating those same numbers....they can use LD percentages and "unlucky" his doubles haven't turned into more homers or BABIP, but it's still a big unknown.

 

OTOH, it really blocks Matt Davidson to acquire Ramirez/Sandoval, and Hahn's unlikely to do that.

Edited August 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

If Dunn is as valuable as his metrics would say in 2012/13/14, why has it been so impossible for Hahn to trade him?

 

And has Adam been a run-producing bat this year? Not really. He barely has 50 RBI's, for someone paid quite handsomely to produce them.

 

So if Adam Dunn hit .500/.650/.900 with 60 home runs, but no one got on base in front of him and he only have 60 RBIs, you would say he is not a run producer. That is the logic you are using when using RBI to define "run-producer."

 

If you had the preseason 2015 odds for who's the most likely to finish in the Top 10 MVP voting in the AL, would it be Gillaspie, Sandoval or Dunn with the best odds? I just think a LOT of people are nervous about him replicating those same numbers....they can use LD percentages and "unlucky" his doubles haven't turned into more homers or BABIP, but it's still a big unknown.

 

OTOH, it really blocks Matt Davidson to acquire Ramirez/Sandoval, and Hahn's unlikely to do that.

 

If you had the preseason odds for who was more likely to win the World Series and the choices were Padres, Cubs, or Twins, your answer would be "who gives a s***, it isn't going to happen so why bother?" I mean, we could be talking like 100:1 versus 150:1 versus 200:1 and no matter how you slice it, none of them are likely.

[cabiness42]

If Dunn is as valuable as his metrics would say in 2012/13/14, why has it been so impossible for Hahn to trade him?

 

And has Adam been a run-producing bat this year? Not really. He barely has 50 RBI's, for someone paid quite handsomely to produce them.

 

I'm not saying Dunn is valuable. He isn't terribly valuable. Sandoval, however, would be less valuable.

 

I'd rather give Andy Wilkins a chance than sign a guy with a .755 OPS.

[caulfield12]

So if Adam Dunn hit .500/.650/.900 with 60 home runs, but no one got on base in front of him and he only have 60 RBIs, you would say he is not a run producer. That is the logic you are using when using RBI to define "run-producer."

 

 

Yes, because those numbers are so realistic for Dunn.

 

Why even continue to count RBI's or batting average with RISP? They're irrelevant, right? Because it's "lucky/random" from season to season? Why even care about homers at USCF (for someone like Conor Gillaspie)? We only need to track SLG and OBP, yes?

 

Go ahead and be Rick Hahn and sell/spin the return of Adam Dunn to the White Sox when nobody else in baseball wants him and he's not even sure about playing himself.

 

I don't hate him irrationally, but I have ZERO confidence in Dunn being the solution at DH going forward in his mid 30's.

 

Now if you said we would have Shields, Martin, Melky Cabrera and a closer, I could care less about Dunn coming back. But if you're going to label bringing him back as one of the KEY off-seasons moves for the White Sox, the fanbase is going to have a huge laugh about that and respond with even more malaise/apathy.

Edited August 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

I'm not saying Dunn is valuable. He isn't terribly valuable. Sandoval, however, would be less valuable.

 

I'd rather give Andy Wilkins a chance than sign a guy with a .755 OPS.

 

 

If the White Sox thought Wilkins' hit tool could actually play at the next level, they already would have parted ways with Dunn a LONG time ago.

 

His not being promoted despite the hottest hitting streak in the minors (and Charlotte's homer frenzy in general) should tell you everything you need to know.

 

There's clearly some flaw or hole in his offensive game/swing/approach that MLB advanced scouts are already excitedly waiting to exploit.

Edited August 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

So if Adam Dunn hit .500/.650/.900 with 60 home runs, but no one got on base in front of him and he only have 60 RBIs, you would say he is not a run producer. That is the logic you are using when using RBI to define "run-producer."

 

 

 

If you had the preseason odds for who was more likely to win the World Series and the choices were Padres, Cubs, or Twins, your answer would be "who gives a s***, it isn't going to happen so why bother?" I mean, we could be talking like 100:1 versus 150:1 versus 200:1 and no matter how you slice it, none of them are likely.

 

The answer will be evident this off-season...the market forces will reward Sandoval and scoff at Dunn.

 

Sure, if Dunn's willing to play another year for a Justin Morneau-type contract, he becomes a bit more interesting. Does anyone believe he's going to sign that deal with the Sox after struggling here for 4 disappointing seasons? WHY?

[GGajewski18]

Who dose the Sox core consist of?

 

Because I cant define them, and when you cant define your core then you dont have one.

 

Sale, Quintana, Abreu, Eaton, Garcia, Rodon. Outside but possibly Gillaspie, Alexei (age), Flowers (works well with staff).

 

Not bad if you ask me....

[witesoxfan]

Yes, because those numbers are so realistic for Dunn.

 

Why even continue to count RBI's or batting average with RISP? They're irrelevant, right? Because it's "lucky/random" from season to season? Why even care about homers at USCF (for someone like Conor Gillaspie)? We only need to track SLG and OBP, yes?

 

Go ahead and be Rick Hahn and sell/spin the return of Adam Dunn to the White Sox when nobody else in baseball wants him and he's not even sure about playing himself.

 

I don't hate him irrationally, but I have ZERO confidence in Dunn being the solution at DH going forward in his mid 30's.

 

Now if you said we would have Shields, Martin, Melky Cabrera and a closer, I could care less about Dunn coming back. But if you're going to label bringing him back as one of the KEY off-seasons moves for the White Sox, the fanbase is going to have a huge laugh about that and respond with even more malaise/apathy.

 

I didn't say they are realstic, I'm just using the logic you used to show why it's a ridiculous premise.

 

They are virtually irrelevant yes. They do it for traditions' sake. It's the same reason they keep track of W-L. Ultimately, RBI means nothing other than had ample opportunities to drive people in.

 

Homers are different because a home run is the ultimate form of production and efficiency - there is no other hit in the entire game that guarantees a run than a home run. Ultimately, I want good hitters. A lot of times, guys who hit a lot of home runs are good hitters. Home runs absolutely are not irrelevant.

 

Dunn shouldn't return a lot. He's a mid 30s player in the last month of his contract whose only real utility is his productivity against RHP, and even that is limited to some extent by his contact issues. There's still value there, and they should be able to save some money or get a semi-useful prospect out of the whole deal.

 

I wouldn't expect confidence in Dunn into his mid 30s either, but on a 1-2 year deal, he isn't the worst option. I still don't see him re-signing with the White Sox. I could care less if they re-sign him, but I'd prefer they search for alternatives first. If he's the fat chick at the bar, then I have no problem with the Sox bringing him back. It's never going to be a key to the offseason and I've never even come close to saying anything like that.

 

I was primarily criticizing you for using RBI as a justification for run-production when the correlation between hitters and RBI numbers is derivative of their approach at the plate, who they hit behind, and how many at bats they get. If Gordon Beckham hit behind prime Rickey Henderson and Kenny Lofton at the top of the lineup, and Adam Dunn hit behind Rey Ordonez and Mario Mendoza at the bottom of the lineup, who do you think will get more RBI? But, with 2 outs, a runner on 1B, and down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th, who would you prefer at the plate?

[southsider2k5]

So if Adam Dunn hit .500/.650/.900 with 60 home runs, but no one got on base in front of him and he only have 60 RBIs, you would say he is not a run producer. That is the logic you are using when using RBI to define "run-producer."

 

 

 

If you had the preseason odds for who was more likely to win the World Series and the choices were Padres, Cubs, or Twins, your answer would be "who gives a s***, it isn't going to happen so why bother?" I mean, we could be talking like 100:1 versus 150:1 versus 200:1 and no matter how you slice it, none of them are likely.

 

Except he has had Abreu and Eaton in front of him for most of the year, along with Gillaspie for a large amount of ABs, who are three of the top OBP guys in baseball.

[caulfield12]

I didn't say they are realstic, I'm just using the logic you used to show why it's a ridiculous premise.

 

They are virtually irrelevant yes. They do it for traditions' sake. It's the same reason they keep track of W-L. Ultimately, RBI means nothing other than had ample opportunities to drive people in.

 

Homers are different because a home run is the ultimate form of production and efficiency - there is no other hit in the entire game that guarantees a run than a home run. Ultimately, I want good hitters. A lot of times, guys who hit a lot of home runs are good hitters. Home runs absolutely are not irrelevant.

 

Dunn shouldn't return a lot. He's a mid 30s player in the last month of his contract whose only real utility is his productivity against RHP, and even that is limited to some extent by his contact issues. There's still value there, and they should be able to save some money or get a semi-useful prospect out of the whole deal.

 

I wouldn't expect confidence in Dunn into his mid 30s either, but on a 1-2 year deal, he isn't the worst option. I still don't see him re-signing with the White Sox. I could care less if they re-sign him, but I'd prefer they search for alternatives first. If he's the fat chick at the bar, then I have no problem with the Sox bringing him back. It's never going to be a key to the offseason and I've never even come close to saying anything like that.

 

I was primarily criticizing you for using RBI as a justification for run-production when the correlation between hitters and RBI numbers is derivative of their approach at the plate, who they hit behind, and how many at bats they get. If Gordon Beckham hit behind prime Rickey Henderson and Kenny Lofton at the top of the lineup, and Adam Dunn hit behind Rey Ordonez and Mario Mendoza at the bottom of the lineup, who do you think will get more RBI? But, with 2 outs, a runner on 1B, and down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th, who would you prefer at the plate?

 

 

NEITHER. A hitter I would be confident in actually putting the ball in play, like a Victor Martinez.

[Eminor3rd]

lol

[witesoxfan]

Except he has had Abreu and Eaton in front of him for most of the year, along with Gillaspie, who are three of the top OBP guys in baseball.

 

Eaton, Gillaspie, and Abreu have batted ahead of Dunn in 25 games this year. Abreu and Eaton have both hit in front of Dunn 61 times this year. Abreu has cleared the bases 33 times when batting in front of Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is also on pace for about 500 plate appearances this season. He also does not hit for a very high average but hits a lot of home runs and walks a lot.

[witesoxfan]

NEITHER. A hitter I would be confident in actually putting the ball in play, like a Victor Martinez.

 

You ask "who is more likely to be a top 10 MVP candidate," between 3 players who are not likely to be MVPs of a league, which includes, at the bare minimum, 375 players, and I respond with neither because this is a true point. I ask "who would you rather see up in a game situation?" and give two options when disproving your notion that RBI is a meaningful statistic and, in making my very generalized point, you respond with Victor Martinez. Sweet, now if you can let Dombrowski and Ausmus know that we're just gonna use Victor Martinez in this situation which has nothing to do with him, that'd be awesome.

 

Do you see the difference?

 

OK, so who would you rather have up in that situation, Adam Dunn or Gordon Beckham? Remember that Gordon Beckham is going to have more RBI. Or a real life situation with real life numbers: who would you rather have up in that situation, Adam Dunn (50 RBI) or Aaron Hill (55 RBI)?

[southsider2k5]

You ask "who is more likely to be a top 10 MVP candidate," between 3 players who are not likely to be MVPs of a league, which includes, at the bare minimum, 375 players, and I respond with neither because this is a true point. I ask "who would you rather see up in a game situation?" and give two options when disproving your notion that RBI is a meaningful statistic and, in making my very generalized point, you respond with Victor Martinez. Sweet, now if you can let Dombrowski and Ausmus know that we're just gonna use Victor Martinez in this situation which has nothing to do with him, that'd be awesome.

 

Do you see the difference?

 

OK, so who would you rather have up in that situation, Adam Dunn or Gordon Beckham? Remember that Gordon Beckham is going to have more RBI. Or a real life situation with real life numbers: who would you rather have up in that situation, Adam Dunn (50 RBI) or Aaron Hill (55 RBI)?

 

Lyle Mouton.

[southsider2k5]

Eaton, Gillaspie, and Abreu have batted ahead of Dunn in 25 games this year. Abreu and Eaton have both hit in front of Dunn 61 times this year. Abreu has cleared the bases 33 times when batting in front of Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn is also on pace for about 500 plate appearances this season. He also does not hit for a very high average but hits a lot of home runs and walks a lot.

 

He's had 99 PA's with RISP, of which he has produced 32 RBI's.

 

Alexei in 132 PA's with RISP has driven in 49 runs. Conor in 95 PA's has knocked in 38 runs.

 

Both of those guys have done it at a higher rate, and I wouldn't call either of them "run producers".

 

[Eminor3rd]

Lyle Mouton.

 

[witesoxfan]

He's had 99 PA's with RISP, of which he has produced 32 RBI's.

 

Alexei in 132 PA's with RISP has driven in 49 runs. Conor in 95 PA's has knocked in 38 runs.

 

Both of those guys have done it at a higher rate, and I wouldn't call either of them "run producers".

 

Because Adam Dunn is more likely to take a walk than those guys.

 

The term "run producer" is incredibly vague and its definition is subject to however you want to define it. Adam Dunn gets on base and hits home runs. Thus, that's how he produces runs. Alexei Ramirez and Conor Gillaspie get hits on a consistent basis. That's how they produce runs. Against right handed pitching, I have no problem with Dunn hitting where he does.

 

And your aforementioned response of Lyle Mouton is correct, 10 points for Gryffindor.

[LDF]

I'm not saying Dunn is valuable. He isn't terribly valuable. Sandoval, however, would be less valuable.

 

I'd rather give Andy Wilkins a chance than sign a guy with a .755 OPS.

 

I agree here, I have this gnawing opinion and thought that if it wasn't for his contract yr, I

can imagine him ballooning to the size of Prince Fielder.

 

[Jake]

It's all pretty simple. Our top 2 are better than any guy they've got and they're elites in MLB. Rizzo is very good and is their only close to surefire good-to-great MLB guy. They don't have a guy like Quintana who is so proven, either. The Sox boast Eaton as another member of the core and Avisail Garcia as young, highly talented, and with some MLB success. I also believe Carlos Rodon is on par with ANY prospect out there. With that said, the collection of Bryant/Soler/Baez/Russell is loaded with talent that the Sox don't have in position players after Abreu and Avisail. What the Sox do have going for them is that while the talents near the MLB for us don't have amazing ceilings, they are very close to MLB and in the case of a guy like Semien have a high floor.

 

Time will tell. The Cubs could blow us out of the water, but as of today the smart money is on the Sox.

[BaconOnAStick]

What would the Sox have to get in return from the Cubs to feel good about an Abreu trade? How about Chris Sale? Or even Jose Quintana? The Cubs could probably piece together the bullets for one (maybe two, if Quintana is the second), of those guys.

 

I'm not even counting Eaton, Avi, Conor, Rodon, Tim Anderson or Marcus Semien yet.

[caulfield12]

I'm not even certain the Cubs would trade Arrieta for Quintana straight up.

 

Maybe now. A month or so ago, I would have said probably not.

[caulfield12]

You ask "who is more likely to be a top 10 MVP candidate," between 3 players who are not likely to be MVPs of a league, which includes, at the bare minimum, 375 players, and I respond with neither because this is a true point. I ask "who would you rather see up in a game situation?" and give two options when disproving your notion that RBI is a meaningful statistic and, in making my very generalized point, you respond with Victor Martinez. Sweet, now if you can let Dombrowski and Ausmus know that we're just gonna use Victor Martinez in this situation which has nothing to do with him, that'd be awesome.

 

Do you see the difference?

 

OK, so who would you rather have up in that situation, Adam Dunn or Gordon Beckham? Remember that Gordon Beckham is going to have more RBI. Or a real life situation with real life numbers: who would you rather have up in that situation, Adam Dunn (50 RBI) or Aaron Hill (55 RBI)?

 

 

Stone and Harrelson talk about "run producers" in the middle of the line-up all the time.

 

I was listening to Stone on Hit & Run show a couple of weeks ago saying over and over again Conor isn't a run producer. If Conor's outproducing Adam, has a better OPS and yet isn't a run producer, that doesn't say much for Dunn's season.

 

Or you can use another statistic like Runs Created or Runs Created/27. Who would rank 2nd and 3rd after Abreu in that category? I'm going to guess Gillaspie again, maybe Alexei....Dunn could be 3rd.

 

I would argue Alexei's been better at producing runs this year for the White Sox than Adam. And Dunn can't run once he gets on base, so he has to drive them in or be driven in. Part of that's obviously a function of having good hitters behind you, and Viciedo and Flowers and Beckham all had long stretches where they struggled this year.

 

If you're being paid $15 or 16 million and your ONLY job is to hit, and we're arguing whether a SS or Conor Gillaspie is outproducing you offensively (and that's not even taking into consideration WAR or Alexei's defensive contributions), that's not a good argument that will go in your favor.

 

Essentially Dunn isn't even an effective hitter against LHP, so you're getting paid $20-22 million or so to hit, because there has to be another player (in this case Konerko and other bench players) to cover up for your deficiencies.

Edited August 29, 2014 by caulfield12

[BaconOnAStick]

I'm not even certain the Cubs would trade Arrieta for Quintana straight up.

 

Maybe now. A month or so ago, I would have said probably not.

Even if Arrieta wasn't in the process of getting figured out Q has a much better team control situation.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Yeah, this is the Cubs.

 

In before 2k5 labels me a bandwagoner

[oldsox]

If the White Sox thought Wilkins' hit tool could actually play at the next level, they already would have parted ways with Dunn a LONG time ago.

 

His not being promoted despite the hottest hitting streak in the minors (and Charlotte's homer frenzy in general) should tell you everything you need to know.

 

There's clearly some flaw or hole in his offensive game/swing/approach that MLB advanced scouts are already excitedly waiting to exploit.

Nonsense. When Wilkins got hot, there was no place to put him. Sox could not get rid of Dunn, other than a DFA. That's why Wilkins wasn't promoted. If Dunn had been hurt, Willkins would likely have been brought up If he is not traded, he'll get a shot at making the team next year. Clearly, he should be brought up next month.