FutureSox: The 2015 Infield Traffic Jam

[NorthSideSox72]

This topic has been discussed in multiple threads in multiple forums - the crowd of skill infield players ready for 2015, and what to do with them.

 

Here's a deep look at the players involved, some safe assumptions and conclusions, and scenarios of likely outcomes.

 

Thoughts from the crowd?

 

[balfanman]

How much of a prospect and how close is Rondon? If he keeps hitting isn't he supposed to be G.G. caliber at short?

[NorthSideSox72]

How much of a prospect and how close is Rondon? If he keeps hitting isn't he supposed to be G.G. caliber at short?

He's one of the best defensive shortstops in minor league baseball, let alone the White Sox. But he's still quite young, and there are major questions about whether or not his bat will play. He's multiple years from the majors and may not make it at all (in fact, odds are, he won't in any big way). He's a legit prospect on defense alone, but it's way early to project him as a major leaguer.

 

 

[balfanman]

He's one of the best defensive shortstops in minor league baseball, let alone the White Sox. But he's still quite young, and there are major questions about whether or not his bat will play. He's multiple years from the majors and may not make it at all (in fact, odds are, he won't in any big way). He's a legit prospect on defense alone, but it's way early to project him as a major leaguer.

 

Thanks. I thought that he finally started to hit a little at AA. Isn't there some precedent for some minor league players to start hitting better at higher levels because they face better pitchers, who are at least around the plate a little more?

[Balta1701]

Thanks. I thought that he finally started to hit a little at AA. Isn't there some precedent for some minor league players to start hitting better at higher levels because they face better pitchers, who are at least around the plate a little more?

Yes, there is precedent for guys like him becoming better hitters as they get more experience. In fact it seems like its the case with several of those defense-first shortstops. Elvis Andrus, Andrelton Simmons, Eduardo Escobar, Alcides Escobar, Jose Iglesias all generally fit that description of getting better with experience. Omar Vizquel is of course the legendary example of that.

 

The rule winds up being that a guy who is spectacular on defense at SS is a guy you can put up with hitting pretty poorly, and then once they start piling up the at bats in both the minors and the bigs they start learning to contribute on offense a bit more and become real huge contributors. The evidence suggests it takes years of patience though, potentially including several years of the guy struggling at the big league level before you reach that point. And, there is also no guarantee that it will happen and the guy won't remain terrible with the bats either.

[NorthSideSox72]

Thanks. I thought that he finally started to hit a little at AA. Isn't there some precedent for some minor league players to start hitting better at higher levels because they face better pitchers, who are at least around the plate a little more?

A+, not AA. But Balta pretty much covers what response I'd have.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Great content, as usual.

[Eminor3rd]

Personally, I'd love to move Alexei this offseason because I think there will be a good market for him. With Beckham out of the picture, I give Semien the inside track to the 2B job, Micah time to get back to health in AAA, and let Leury and Sanchez duke it out for the full-time job at SS. Both of those guys deserve a long look, IMO, and in the worst case scenario that neither of them hit at all, we at least know that Leury can hold it down defensively for 2015.

 

Unfortunately for Saladino, he's got to play his way into a spot in Spring Training or hope that some injuries/ineffectiveness combine to give him a shot during the season. Ideally, he's full-time SS in Charlotte with Sanchez up at the big league level, giving Micah plenty of reps at 2B.

 

If Davidson continues to struggle, Gillaspie regresses, and Micah performs, Semien can shift to 3B and when Micah is ready to take a stab at 2B.

 

I'm not worried about Rondon at the moment -- he has plenty of learning to do on the offensive side.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[chitownsportsfan]

On what planet has Hahn indicated Micah is the de facto starting 2B next year? He has a total of like 450 PA above A ball and he is 22/35 Sb wise in AA/AAA. He's often compared (ludicrously IMO) to Billy Hamilton. Forget for a second that Hamilton is a once a decade type player just compare the SB numbers in MiLB:

 

Hamilton in combined AA/AAA was 126 of 157 for a 81% success rate at extreme volume.

 

Micah: 22/35 or 63%. Not even break even, not much volume either.

 

I don't pretend to know first hand but every report on Micah lists "poor defense at 2B" as a problem as well.

 

His profile screams "more dev time, maybe a lot more".

 

I'm not sure who the starting 2B will be on openeing day '15 but I will buy a Micah BR sponsorship to anyone that wants to bet on it.

[NorthSideSox72]

On what planet has Hahn indicated Micah is the de facto starting 2B next year? He has a total of like 450 PA above A ball and he is 22/35 Sb wise in AA/AAA. He's often compared (ludicrously IMO) to Billy Hamilton. Forget for a second that Hamilton is a once a decade type player just compare the SB numbers in MiLB:

 

Hamilton in combined AA/AAA was 126 of 157 for a 81% success rate at extreme volume.

 

Micah: 22/35 or 63%. Not even break even, not much volume either.

 

I don't pretend to know first hand but every report on Micah lists "poor defense at 2B" as a problem as well.

 

His profile screams "more dev time, maybe a lot more".

 

I'm not sure who the starting 2B will be on openeing day '15 but I will buy a Micah BR sponsorship to anyone that wants to bet on it.

Not sure anyone said that. What has been said is, he's a second baseman. And what's been clear is, the org likes him. If you read the article, you'll see that the question of whether or not he's ready for MLB is in fact one of the two key open questions.

[Feeky Magee]

Personally, I'd love to move Alexei this offseason because I think there will be a good market for him. With Beckham out of the picture, I give Semien the inside track to the 2B job, Micah time to get back to health in AAA, and let Leury and Sanchez duke it out for the full-time job at SS. Both of those guys deserve a long look, IMO, and in the worst case scenario that neither of them hit at all, we at least know that Leury can hold it down defensively for 2015.

 

Unfortunately for Saladino, he's got to play his way into a spot in Spring Training or hope that some injuries/ineffectiveness combine to give him a shot during the season. Ideally, he's full-time SS in Charlotte with Sanchez up at the big league level, giving Micah plenty of reps at 2B.

 

If Davidson continues to struggle, Gillaspie regresses, and Micah performs, Semien can shift to 3B and when Micah is ready to take a stab at 2B.

 

I'm not worried about Rondon at the moment -- he has plenty of learning to do on the offensive side.

I agree with all of this, except no no no absolutely not to Leury Garcia as anywhere near being the full-time SS.

[beautox]

Personally, I'd love to move Alexei this offseason because I think there will be a good market for him. With Beckham out of the picture, I give Semien the inside track to the 2B job, Micah time to get back to health in AAA, and let Leury and Sanchez duke it out for the full-time job at SS. Both of those guys deserve a long look, IMO, and in the worst case scenario that neither of them hit at all, we at least know that Leury can hold it down defensively for 2015.

 

Unfortunately for Saladino, he's got to play his way into a spot in Spring Training or hope that some injuries/ineffectiveness combine to give him a shot during the season. Ideally, he's full-time SS in Charlotte with Sanchez up at the big league level, giving Micah plenty of reps at 2B.

 

If Davidson continues to struggle, Gillaspie regresses, and Micah performs, Semien can shift to 3B and when Micah is ready to take a stab at 2B.

 

I'm not worried about Rondon at the moment -- he has plenty of learning to do on the offensive side.

I'm with you nearly across the board on this. Alexei is likely going to finish at 3-3.5WAR lets say he keeps up his decent second half and finishes at 3.5WAR. In a short order he'll be 33 years old and under contract for one more year for 10M with an option for his age 34 season with a 1M buy out. If you figure he'll regress by .5-.7WAR season to season lets see what value he has going into this offseason. WAR right now appears to be 6-7M. So lets say alexei posts a 2.5WAR next season and a 2WAR season in 2016. In 15 he should have a surplus value of 7.5M and in '16 we're looking at a surplus of 4M; these numbers are aggressive in both his regression and the cost of a win. all told that 11.5M in surplus value. Going by this article from '10 the value of a top 100 rank 75-100 hitter is nearly 18M and for a pitcher ranked between #11-100 you're looking at 19.5M-14.6. Having said all that there are two things you have to take into account inflation and opportunity cost. Alexei will not cost a draft pick and I would put a 40% he could see a QO by the time is contract is done, thats a best case scenario, addtional theoretical value of 15.46M to add to him. When you factor all that in Hahn if he feels so inclined to trade him, (which i would seeing how the sox have Sanchez and Semien ready) he should be able to get two mid to back end top 100 prospects for Ramirez. The market at short is questionable going into this offseason: Hanley Ramirez will be 31 and cost a draft pick and still has defensive worts at SS and JJ Hardy will be 32 and also cost a draft pick. Asdrubal Cabrera can't be extended a QO and will be 29 and it doesn't make sense for the A's to extend a QO to Jed Lowrie who will be 31. Lastly Stephen drew whos 32 has been putrid this year. I think Hahn is very well positioned to extract some value this offseason with Ramirez.

 

I think Leury is best served on the bench as a defensive sub and pinch runner, the 25th man on this roster. I hope Saladino comes back healthy because I think he has earned a shot at being a UTL player at the major league level and he crushes left handed pitching would be the perfect in house platoon partner for Conor.

 

I would just let Johnson and Davidson get another go round of AAA there is no need to rush them and try and shoehorn both of them in at the major league level when some more seasoning and health would serve them well.

 

I know its very apparent so it most likely won't happen but I would like to see Alexei moved to the yankees for RHP Luis Severino #65 overall prospect(ton of helium), LHP Manny Banuelos (will be 24 next year came back from TJ still has great stuff but has fallen out of favor, stagnating at AAA change of scenery) and SS Jorge Mateo a great looking shortstop way off in the distance at rookie level a nice depth piece to bring along slowly with Micker and the intl signees from this year.

[LDF]

Obviously I could be wrong, but I think it's pretty clear what happens here.

 

Between Hahn, Merkin and other media sources, Micah Johnson is going to be the 2B next year

barring a setback. While many think it may be a rush, and I might put myself in that group,

that's what the brass is thinking. Gillaspie has obviously played his way into the 3B role

offensively and Hahn, almost surprisingly, has gone as far as praising his defensive improvements.

So there you already have left-handed 2B and 3B. The one thing Hahn has made VERY clear

to us about the upcoming offseason is that they are going to bring in left-handed bats with the

only positions that have glaring openings being LF, DH and perhaps C as well. Taking that all in,

we are very likely to have a 2B, 3B and LF/DH who hit left-handed. What does Semien do well?

Hammer LHP. Semien could play for Johnson/Gillaspie/LF against LHP, spell Alexei once or twice,

and with the reports of him impressing in CF, could replace Eaton in the case of his inevitable

injury/injuries. I've been championing this theory ever since Johnson embarrassed the pitchers

of the Southern League and it seems to be coming into fruition.

 

As far as Sanchez, I think it's possible they're trying to build his value for the offseason. There

are no guys that stick out as "trade bait" other than Viciedo (whether he has any non-zero value

is questionable) so dangling from the surplus seems likely.

 

re: Carlos Sánchez can he be a good #2 hitter and when needed a #1 hitter next yr. it appears

he has good hitting stats.

 

[BlackSox13]

On what planet has Hahn indicated Micah is the de facto starting 2B next year? He has a total of like 450 PA above A ball and he is 22/35 Sb wise in AA/AAA. He's often compared (ludicrously IMO) to Billy Hamilton. Forget for a second that Hamilton is a once a decade type player just compare the SB numbers in MiLB:

 

Hamilton in combined AA/AAA was 126 of 157 for a 81% success rate at extreme volume.

 

Micah: 22/35 or 63%. Not even break even, not much volume either.

 

I don't pretend to know first hand but every report on Micah lists "poor defense at 2B" as a problem as well.

 

His profile screams "more dev time, maybe a lot more".

 

I'm not sure who the starting 2B will be on openeing day '15 but I will buy a Micah BR sponsorship to anyone that wants to bet on it.

Wasn't it Merkin that said something on twitter declaring Johnson would be the starting 2B in 2015? I think it was right around the time Beckham was traded.

 

Anyway, I agree that Johnson would benefit from more time at Charlotte.

 

If the Sox truly want to contend then keep Alexei. Sanchez and Semien as the two middle infielders scares me, although I have much more confidence in Sanchez defensively.

 

I'd go with Alexei at SS, Sanchez at 2B and Semien platooning with Gillaspie at 3B.

 

Oh yeah. Very well written article NSS! I enjoyed it very much.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I agree with all of this, except no no no absolutely not to Leury Garcia as anywhere near being the full-time SS.

Agree 100%. I don't even want him on the major league roster next year, let him get regular playing time in AAA so his bat can maybe develop into passable for a reserve infielder.

[caulfield12]

Criticizing Johnson's SB percentage last year is a bit short-sighted.

 

One, he was hurt for much of the second half (both hamstrings, probably a residual effect of running so much in 2013)...and was eventually shut down.

 

Two, they were working more specifically with his offensive approach and hitting for more pop, and stolen bases were on the backburner...as well as making some defensively adjustments.

 

Three, he's in the process of reinventing his SB technique, as what worked in the low minors simply doesn't play from AA through the majors.

 

When all is said and done, he'll be expected to be a consistent 30-50 steal guy at the major league level. He has to be, since speed is his only real plus tool at the moment, with hitting for average 2nd. They'll need to refine his "small ball" skills, including bunting more for hits and keeping the ball on the ground instead of in the air (see Juan Pierre, Willie Mays Hayes or Jarrod Dyson).

Edited October 16, 2014 by caulfield12

[LDF]

Criticizing Johnson's SB percentage last year is a bit short-sighted.

 

One, he was hurt for much of the second half (both hamstrings, probably a residual effect of running so much in 2013)...and was eventually shut down.

 

Two, they were working more specifically with his offensive approach and hitting for more pop, and stolen bases were on the backburner...as well as making some defensively adjustments.

 

Three, he's in the process of reinventing his SB technique, as what worked in the low minors simply doesn't play from AA through the majors.

 

When all is said and done, he'll be expected to be a consistent 30-50 steal guy at the major league level. He has to be, since speed is his only real plus tool at the moment, with hitting for average 2nd. They'll need to refine his "small ball" skills, including bunting more for hits and keeping the ball on the ground instead of in the air (see Juan Pierre, Willie Mays Hayes or Jarrod Dyson).

 

this is where I would like to ask, would you put him #1 in the lineup and Eaton #2?

[Y2Jimmy0]

this is where I would like to ask, would you put him #1 in the lineup and Eaton #2?

 

 

1. Eaton

2. Markakis

9. Johnson

 

That's how I'd go...

[LDF]

1. Eaton

2. Markakis

9. Johnson

 

That's how I'd go...

 

assuming that the sox sign Markakis.

 

If MJ makes the team, with his speed I can envision him as leading off and Eaton

as #2.

 

the lineup can be

1. righty

2. lefty

3. righty

[SoxAce]

assuming that the sox sign Markakis.

 

If MJ makes the team, with his speed I can envision him as leading off and Eaton

as #2.

 

the lineup can be

1. righty

2. lefty

3. righty

Johnson is a lefty though.

[LDF]

Johnson is a lefty though.

 

crap, must be thinking of another johnson

 

many thanks for the correction.

[LDF]

 

what will the sox do if all 3, Sanchez, Johnson and Semien have a good spring?

[SCCWS]

what will the sox do if all 3, Sanchez, Johnson and Semien have a good spring?

 

 

 

DEFENSE-DEFENSE-DEFENSE.. Probably Sanchez gets the nod.

[Chicago White Sox]

what will the sox do if all 3, Sanchez, Johnson and Semien have a good spring?

 

 

DEFENSE-DEFENSE-DEFENSE.. Probably Sanchez gets the nod.

I seriously doubt all three guys will still be with the team come spring training. My guess is Sanchez is moved as part of a deal to land us a left-handed bat.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Chicago White Sox

[LDF]

I seriously doubt all three guys will still be with the team come spring training. My guess is Sanchez is moved as part of a deal to land us a left-handed bat.

 

a trade is an option but I really can see 1 being moved to the outfield. esp if DV

is still with the team.