2015 Offseason

[southsider2k5]

You realize that he missed the entire 2012 season with injury so his numbers that season include 0 hits, 0 home runs, 0 runs scored, and 0 RBI?

 

His numbers last year included a 112 OPS+. He only hit 14 home runs last year, 28 this year. His numbers this year are spectacular. His numbers last year contributed about as much offensively as Adam Dunn the last couple years. The year before that, injured.

 

The sad thing is that even with missing an entire season, Victor has generated 6.2 WAR during that time. Our primary DH? 1.3.

[shysocks]

The notion that Q is not a 2 is valid to some extent. His stuff is average and he doesn't have a true swing and miss pitch. His swinging strike rate is at 7.8%, which ranks 66 out of 95 qualified pitchers this year. With his stuff, hitters foul off a lot of his pitches and runs his pitch count up, and as a result he starts to reach his pitch limit around the 5th or 6th inning, that's why we often see him implode during that span. He should not be your second starter in a playoff series, especially with the added pressure.

 

But given that, I still don't think we should trade him. He's got one of the best contracts in the league, and if we can put a legit #2 starter between him and Sale, that would be one of the best 1-2-3's in the league. I can live with him being a #3 with that contract. And we may already have that #2 starter in the system, and he can deliver as early as late 2015.

This is true, but if you look at a lot of other numbers he ranks right around 40th - ground ball rate, K-BB%, SIERA. And he is 22nd in OPS allowed despite pitching in US Cellular. I wish he could lower his pitch count a bit too, but he's still managed to make it into the top 30 in innings. When you have a pitcher who does just about everything this well and combine it with durability, you have a #2.

 

To pile on here - the notion of trading him is kind of ludicrous. Someone else said this almost exactly: you trade established guys to get prospects who might turn into good major league players who you then might be able to sign long term. That's Quintana already. Maybe we could get Stanton for him, and that's a nice thought, but trades that move two established MLB stars just don't happen that often, Lester/Cespedes notwithstanding.

[caulfield12]

This is true, but if you look at a lot of other numbers he ranks right around 40th - ground ball rate, K-BB%, SIERA. And he is 22nd in OPS allowed despite pitching in US Cellular. I wish he could lower his pitch count a bit too, but he's still managed to make it into the top 30 in innings. When you have a pitcher who does just about everything this well and combine it with durability, you have a #2.

 

To pile on here - the notion of trading him is kind of ludicrous. Someone else said this almost exactly: you trade established guys to get prospects who might turn into good major league players who you then might be able to sign long term. That's Quintana already. Maybe we could get Stanton for him, and that's a nice thought, but trades that move two established MLB stars just don't happen that often, Lester/Cespedes notwithstanding.

 

Now we're pushing it with Quintana.

 

Solid, underrated pitcher, sure. Star, no way. Adam Eaton's got more star quality than Quintana, so does Avisail. Heck, so do Anderson and Hawkins, for that matter. Rodon as well.

 

Stanton's an elite player, a superstar, one of the top 10 talents in the game today and still young.

[Eminor3rd]

Now we're pushing it with Quintana.

 

Solid, underrated pitcher, sure. Star, no way. Adam Eaton's got more star quality than Quintana, so does Avisail. Heck, so do Anderson and Hawkins, for that matter. Rodon as well.

 

Stanton's an elite player, a superstar, one of the top 10 talents in the game today and still young.

 

If that's true, than "star quality" doesn't correlate heavily with doing what it takes to win ballgames. Call him what you want, Quintana is a top 25 starting pitcher in MLB today whether most people recognize it or not. Lack of an elite tool doesn't change the fact that the total package is highly effective at preventing runs.

[shysocks]

Now we're pushing it with Quintana.

 

Solid, underrated pitcher, sure. Star, no way. Adam Eaton's got more star quality than Quintana, so does Avisail. Heck, so do Anderson and Hawkins, for that matter. Rodon as well.

 

Stanton's an elite player, a superstar, one of the top 10 talents in the game today and still young.

Think that's arguing semantics. If you don't wanna call him a star, then reword my post to read "two established MLB producers."

[witesoxfan]

Stanton's an elite player, a superstar, one of the top 10 talents in the game today and still young.

 

That's fine and dandy. He's also 2 years from reaching free agency and he's going to get a mega contract. Jose Quintana is under team control for another 4 or 5 seasons at a very cheap rate and he's putting up a 4.5 WAR season. Their value is similar.

[southsider2k5]

If that's true, than "star quality" doesn't correlate heavily with doing what it takes to win ballgames. Call him what you want, Quintana is a top 25 starting pitcher in MLB today whether most people recognize it or not. Lack of an elite tool doesn't change the fact that the total package is highly effective at preventing runs.

 

Call him whatever you want to call him. Quintana is the type of pitcher that 29 other teams in baseball are looking to find.

[caulfield12]

If that's true, than "star quality" doesn't correlate heavily with doing what it takes to win ballgames. Call him what you want, Quintana is a top 25 starting pitcher in MLB today whether most people recognize it or not. Lack of an elite tool doesn't change the fact that the total package is highly effective at preventing runs.

 

 

If we said Top 25, then that makes him close to an ace or #1, since there are only 30 teams.

 

Then you have the Mariners (Felix and Iwakuma), A's (Lester, Samardzija and Gray), Dodgers (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu), Giants, Braves, Cardinals, Tigers (Scherzer and Price, not to mention Anibal Sanchez), etc., with at least three guys you'd put ahead of Quintana.

 

I'm comfortable with 30-45ish, but still not an ace. He just doesn't miss enough bats, put up games where he allows 0-2 runs, record strikeouts, go deep into games or work around errors and limit damage with 2 outs.

Edited September 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

If we said Top 25, then that makes him close to an ace or #1, since there are only 30 teams.

 

Then you have the Mariners (Felix and Iwakuma), A's, Dodgers (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu), Giants, Braves, Cardinals, Tigers (Scherzer and Price, not to mention Anibal Sanchez), etc., with at least three guys you'd put ahead of Quintana.

 

For most a lot of teams, Quintana would be their ace.

[bmags]

So what's our payroll next year, 40 million? I don't want to spend just to spend, but, I really don't want to waste years with Abreu/Sale playing meaningless baseball.

[caulfield12]

That's fine and dandy. He's also 2 years from reaching free agency and he's going to get a mega contract. Jose Quintana is under team control for another 4 or 5 seasons at a very cheap rate and he's putting up a 4.5 WAR season. Their value is similar.

 

Then by that barometer, Adam Eaton's just as valuable as Mike Stanton, almost.

 

 

[shysocks]

Then by that barometer, Adam Eaton's just as valuable as Mike Stanton, almost.

Wow! I usually use Fangraphs (2.7 WAR), so I didn't realize b-ref had Eaton up at 4.8. That's got to be one of the biggest gaps in baseball.

 

I think another test is length of production - Quintana has been proving longer than Eaton and would fetch more in a trade as a result.

Edited September 3, 2014 by shysocks

[Balta1701]

So what's our payroll next year, 40 million? I don't want to spend just to spend, but, I really don't want to waste years with Abreu/Sale playing meaningless baseball.

As of right now we're at about $60 million assuming a couple guys are offered arbitration, $65 million if Viciedo is included.

 

At the very least, a few bullpen signings and a couple of low-level scrap heap buys like we saw this year will almost certainly push that up towards $75 million.

[witesoxfan]

Then by that barometer, Adam Eaton's just as valuable as Mike Stanton, almost.

 

I wouldn't disagree. I'd probably give up a bit more with both of them to acquire said elite talent, but contractual status means a lot.

 

I mean, compare Anderson/Hawkins/Danish/Montas and Eaton/Hawkins/Danish/Montas for Stanton. Which feels like you are paying way too much and which feels like a fairly solid offer?

[Bigsoxhurt35]

With pitching a premium, Qs performance, and contract his value is very high. Still not interested in trading him.

But for Stanton? I'd think about it for sure he'd have to sign an extension.

[GGajewski18]

I wouldn't disagree. I'd probably give up a bit more with both of them to acquire said elite talent, but contractual status means a lot.

 

I mean, compare Anderson/Hawkins/Danish/Montas and Eaton/Hawkins/Danish/Montas for Stanton. Which feels like you are paying way too much and which feels like a fairly solid offer?

 

That first offer is solid. No way I trade Eaton. However, I only do that deal or any deal for that matter if Hahn can agree on an extension with Stanton before said trade.

[caulfield12]

As of right now we're at about $60 million assuming a couple guys are offered arbitration, $65 million if Viciedo is included.

 

At the very least, a few bullpen signings and a couple of low-level scrap heap buys like we saw this year will almost certainly push that up towards $75 million.

 

 

How are you accounting for Abreu's salary? Are you pro-rating his signing bonus or did you allocate it 100% into this season?

 

Basically, we could sign Victor Martinez for the going rate and that would be it.

 

No replacement for Viciedo (Cabrera/Rasmus, etc.), for Flowers, and very little or nothing but more scrap heap bullpen help...perhaps ONE veteran guy the next tier down from the closers and guys like Miller, Gregerson....hopefully a better version of Belisario and Lindstrom.

 

That wouldn't even give us the money for much of a starting pitcher, even off the top tier.

 

Personally, I'd rather add James Shields for three years than Victor Martinez. Both are going to be huge rolls of the dice.

[caulfield12]

That first offer is solid. No way I trade Eaton. However, I only do that deal or any deal for that matter if Hahn can agree on an extension with Stanton before said trade.

 

 

That first offer won't move the meter enough.

 

Danish isn't throwing hard enough, and Montas was almost a throw-in (albeit quite talented and enigmatic) to the Peavy deal. Hawkins has way way too many question marks, and Anderson has the most upside but defensive issues as well.

 

I'd want at least one, younger, cost-controlled but major league proven player before I'd move Stanton.

[GGajewski18]

How are you accounting for Abreu's salary? Are you pro-rating his signing bonus or did you allocate it 100% into this season?

 

Basically, we could sign Victor Martinez for the going rate and that would be it.

 

No replacement for Viciedo (Cabrera/Rasmus, etc.), for Flowers, and very little or nothing but more scrap heap bullpen help...perhaps ONE veteran guy the next tier down from the closers and guys like Miller, Gregerson....hopefully a better version of Belisario and Lindstrom.

 

That wouldn't even give us the money for much of a starting pitcher, even off the top tier.

 

Personally, I'd rather add James Shields for three years than Victor Martinez. Both are going to be huge rolls of the dice.

 

Flowers isn't going to be replaced. I think he has earned himself another year or two. Even Hahn has said that himself that he's been happy with Flowers development and how he has been good defensively and how he has handled the pitchers this year.

[witesoxfan]

That first offer is solid. No way I trade Eaton. However, I only do that deal or any deal for that matter if Hahn can agree on an extension with Stanton before said trade.

 

I do not believe the Marlins have ever been a team to give a re-signing window to the new team. They do not want to be put into a position where they attempt to trade someone and then have the acquiring team end up backing out because they couldn't reach an agreement. In that instance, it kills all the leverage the Marlins have because it's really hard for that player to go back without being disgruntled.

 

If the Sox were to acquire someone of the ilk of Giancarlo Stanton, they'd have a pretty good idea that they'd be able to extend him.

[caulfield12]

Flowers isn't going to be replaced. I think he has earned himself another year or two. Even Hahn has said that himself that he's been happy with Flowers development and how he has been good defensively and how he has handled the pitchers this year.

 

 

He's earned himself (probably) 2015. That's it. Not 2 or 1 1/2 years.

 

And I'm sure Hahn would definitely listen if Russell Martin expressed an interest in coming to Chicago.

 

Whether we consider Grandal, Jason Castro or Wilin Rosario top catchers right now, those are three who will probably be made available. Upgrades? Hard to say.

Edited September 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Flowers isn't going to be replaced. I think he has earned himself another year or two. Even Hahn has said that himself that he's been happy with Flowers development and how he has been good defensively and how he has handled the pitchers this year.

 

I don't think it is a top priority, but I would bet that if Hahn saw a shot at a top level catcher, he would do it.

[southsider2k5]

I do not believe the Marlins have ever been a team to give a re-signing window to the new team. They do not want to be put into a position where they attempt to trade someone and then have the acquiring team end up backing out because they couldn't reach an agreement. In that instance, it kills all the leverage the Marlins have because it's really hard for that player to go back without being disgruntled.

 

If the Sox were to acquire someone of the ilk of Giancarlo Stanton, they'd have a pretty good idea that they'd be able to extend him.

 

Absolutely. There are back door ways to find out those kind of things. If nothing else they can get an idea of what the dollars and years are that he is looking for, and know from there how close they are.

[caulfield12]

Does anyone honestly think they're going to pay Mike Stanton $200-250 million?

 

C'mon...there's just no precedent for it, other than Albert Belle, and I think that was actually to make a point to other teams about the dangers of signing that kind of contract, which luckily had the escape clause.

[southsider2k5]

Does anyone honestly think they're going to pay Mike Stanton $200-250 million?

 

C'mon...there's just no precedent for it, other than Albert Belle, and I think that was actually to make a point to other teams about the dangers of signing that kind of contract, which luckily had the escape clause.

 

The Sox were in the Arod bidding at some level.