2015 Offseason

[southsider2k5]

What if the Sox FO feels Rodon can slide into Q's spot and the team not miss a beat? That's how we could get a superstar hitter and still contend. Rodon could be that good in their eyes.

 

They don't.

[oldsox]

Per Rosenthal "O’Dowd stepping down as #Rockies GM. Geivett also resigning and leaving organization. Team will name new GM."

 

With that happening I believe his replacement in addition to the rockies solid performance at the gate will afford them to move one or both of CarGo and or Tulo

I was thinking same thing. I wish I knew more about Cargo's knee problems. I have not read anything recently.

[SCCWS]

We don't have quality #3 & #4 starters, so we're not contending without both Quintana & Rodon.

 

 

Maybe quality starters, especially 3-5 are not as valuable as we think. The attached article says that Boston last year and Baltimore this year had outstanding seasons without having an ace. The 4 teams still standing are not teams with outstanding team ERA for example.

 

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/re...e-from-that.ece

[GGajewski18]

Maybe quality starters, especially 3-5 are not as valuable as we think. The attached article says that Boston last year and Baltimore this year had outstanding seasons without having an ace. The 4 teams still standing are not teams with outstanding team ERA for example.

 

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/re...e-from-that.ece

 

If Sox want to be a playoff team in 15 then you keep Quintana to have a proven #2 to go along with Rodon. All you need in the middle of that is an above average right handed starter, or JUST SIGN ALL THE LEFTIES! lol.

 

But in reality, I would love to add Shields to this rotation.

 

Sale, Shields, Quintana, Noesi, Rodon (hopefully trade Danks). That is a solid 5.

 

I think I would sacrifice a 2nd round pick to get Shields and try to trade for CarGo and add complimentary pieces around that, through minor trades and lesser free agents.

Edited October 9, 2014 by SoxPride18

[Quin]

What if the Sox FO feels Rodon can slide into Q's spot and the team not miss a beat? That's how we could get a superstar hitter and still contend. Rodon could be that good in their eyes.

 

Option 1 (Best case scenario): Have three legit aces.

 

This is defining ace as a Top 30 pitcher in baseball, which would be the head of a staff.

 

Sale - 8th best this year

Quintana - 9th best

Rodon - Ace potential

 

You can add two average righties and that rotation still has the potential to be more frightening than any in the playoffs.

 

Option 2

 

Sale

Rodon

2 average righties

Bad lefty/righty

+ some prospects

[cabiness42]

I don't think there will end up being a deal for Q available that makes sense. I would require:

 

1) Other team takes Danks and his full salary in addition to Q

2) Return is a position player who is a top 5 hitter at his position and is under team control for at least 3 years, plus one of the 20 best starting pitching prospects.

 

That is probably more than another team would be willing to do, but that's what I would demand.

[beautox]

If Sox want to be a playoff team in 15 then you keep Quintana to have a proven #2 to go along with Rodon. All you need in the middle of that is an above average right handed starter, or JUST SIGN ALL THE LEFTIES! lol.

 

But in reality, I would love to add Shields to this rotation.

 

Sale, Shields, Quintana, Noesi, Rodon (hopefully trade Danks). That is a solid 5.

 

I think I would sacrifice a 2nd round pick to get Shields and try to trade for CarGo and add complimentary pieces around that, through minor trades and lesser free agents.

I don't get the shields love across the board and how he fits into this teams short and long term goals. He is going to be 33 at the start of '15 and is going to command at least a 4 year deal if not something closer to 5-6 + at least 1 option and buy out and will cost us our second round pick and the money assigned to that pool.

 

Why not go after Maeda who is younger, won't cost as much and fits the sox window across the board.

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

I don't get the shields love across the board and how he fits into this teams short and long term goals. He is going to be 33 at the start of '15 and is going to command at least a 4 year deal if not something closer to 5-6 + at least 1 option and buy out and will cost us our second round pick and the money assigned to that pool.

 

Why not go after Maeda who is younger, won't cost as much and fits the sox window across the board.

 

You aren't alone, friend beautox.

[shysocks]

I don't get the shields love across the board and how he fits into this teams short and long term goals. He is going to be 33 at the start of '15 and is going to command at least a 4 year deal if not something closer to 5-6 + at least 1 option and buy out and will cost us our second round pick and the money assigned to that pool.

 

Why not go after Maeda who is younger, won't cost as much and fits the sox window across the board.

I wouldn't say there's Shields love across the board. Plenty of people here have gone on record as wanting to stay away from him. You're right, he'd be declining as the team got more competitive.

[witesoxfan]

The Sox said they will bring in veterans in the right situation. James Shields is 33 and going to command 4 years and likely some sort of committment (via option or vested option) to a 5th year. The last time the Sox gave that kind of contract out for a free agent pitcher was John Danks, and he was a much, much better candidate for a 5 year contract at that time and it has bitten them squarely on the ass.

 

That is not the right situation.

 

I'd give the Sox a 0.1% chance of signing James Shields so as to protect myself from flat out saying "They are not going to sign James Shields."

[caulfield12]

The White Sox AND Royals have less than a 1% chance of signing Shields.

 

I'd put the Royals at 1-2% simply if they win the World Series and feel like going on a spending spree, but it still wouldn't make any sense.

 

With Ventura, Duffy, Finnegan and then Vargas and Guthrie at the end of the rotation (they also might want to convert Aaron Crow, there's Liam Hendricks, Hochevar and Lamb as well), they don't really even need to waste that money on Shields...it can go to adding pop to their line-up in the middle, like Martinez/Sandoval/Hanley Ramirez.

 

The most logical fits are Victor or Sandoval as the DH (and part-time 3B starter), although he's (Kung Fu Panda) going to expect to be paid starting 3B money. If I'm Moore, despite the two homers, I'm still not sold on Moustakas as the starter with his .215ish average, but he's probably bought himself the benefit of the doubt for one more season because of the last four playoff games.

 

Another good fit for the Royals would be Michael Morse in RF/DH if they don't try to keep Aoki...although Dyson might be given the starting job, if they can find a power-hitting DH.

Edited October 9, 2014 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

The Sox said they will bring in veterans in the right situation. James Shields is 33 and going to command 4 years and likely some sort of committment (via option or vested option) to a 5th year. The last time the Sox gave that kind of contract out for a free agent pitcher was John Danks, and he was a much, much better candidate for a 5 year contract at that time and it has bitten them squarely on the ass.

 

That is not the right situation.

 

I'd give the Sox a 0.1% chance of signing James Shields so as to protect myself from flat out saying "They are not going to sign James Shields."

 

We need a subforum for listing wite's odds of certain events happening.

[iamshack]

The Sox said they will bring in veterans in the right situation. James Shields is 33 and going to command 4 years and likely some sort of committment (via option or vested option) to a 5th year. The last time the Sox gave that kind of contract out for a free agent pitcher was John Danks, and he was a much, much better candidate for a 5 year contract at that time and it has bitten them squarely on the ass.

 

That is not the right situation.

 

I'd give the Sox a 0.1% chance of signing James Shields so as to protect myself from flat out saying "They are not going to sign James Shields."

Also, his price will just climb if he pitches well in the ALCS and/or WS, AND, why are we so arrogant to think he wouldn't just stay with the Royals?

[cabiness42]

We need a subforum for listing wite's odds of certain events happening.

 

I'm 99.99999% certain that won't happen.

[beautox]

You aren't alone, friend beautox.

 

 

All jokes aside when looking at the steamer projections the way this team is currently constructed it leaves a lot to be desired.

 

normally to take down at division crown you need about 45WAR and around 40 to take the wildcard.

 

here is how it shakes out for us currently.

 

hand | name| pos | age | projected war | salary

L Eaton CF 26 2.2 PRE

? ? 2B ? ? ?

? ? LF ? ? ?

R Abreu 1B 28 4 7M

? ? DH ? ? ?

R Garcia RF 23 1 PRE

R Flower C 29 .8 ARB

L Gillaspie 3B 27 1.1 PRE

R Ramirez SS 33 2.1 10M

 

For the sake of this conversation lets say they go the following route:

 

Semein is playing 2B steamer projects 1.5WAR for him

 

The sox are able to move Danks + for CarGO and plug him in LF steamer projects 2.7WAR

 

They go conservative and sing Morales and he reproduces his '13 season 1.4WAR

 

our lineup is looking at 16.8WAR.

 

looking at the rotation

 

hand | name| pos | age | projected war | salary

L Sale SP 26 4.6 6M

? ? SP ? ? ?

L Q SP 26 2.6 3.4M

R Noesi SP 28 .1 ARB

? ? SP ? ? ?

 

Again for the sake of this conversation lets say they go the following route:

 

Sign Maeda and he performs similar to Hyun-Jin Ryu in his first year 3.2WAR

 

Rodon starts in the rotation out of the gate and performs up to his parallel David price in his first go around 1.3WAR

 

the sox rotation is at 11.8WAR

 

lastly lets say we get modest contributions from our bench and bullpen this year 2.6WAR total and that includes signing Andrew Miller. By steamer's projections and some liberties by myself with regards to Maeda and Rodon we're still 9 wins from looking at the wildcard.

 

Having said all that I think the projections for a number of the sox are low specifically Eaton, Abreu, Sale, Quintana and Noesi. I feel the sox could be a dark horse for the wildcard in '15 if a few things break their way.

Edited October 9, 2014 by beautox

[caulfield12]

Also, his price will just climb if he pitches well in the ALCS and/or WS, AND, why are we so arrogant to think he wouldn't just stay with the Royals?

 

 

I think by the time it's all said and done, he'll want to stay with KC more than they'll need him...there's just no reason to invest $75-105 million into a pitcher at his age when they already have 3/5th's of a great young rotation along with veterans in Vargas and Guthrie for the back end.

 

They believe in Finnegan as a future starter just as strongly as the White Sox believe in Rodon.

 

If you want to equate Sale/Quintana to Ventura/Duffy...the Royals still have a lot more veteran stability and predictability than we do with Danks/Noesi/Carroll. More importantly, they're not "stuck" with a bad contract like we are with Danks.

 

The White Sox really need a miracle from Bassitt or Montas OR to spend a good amount of money (or talent if it's a trade) to fix the problem externally.

[caulfield12]

 

 

All jokes aside when looking at the steamer projections the way this team is currently constructed it leaves a lot to be desired.

 

normally to take down at division crown you need about 45WAR and around 40 to take the wildcard.

 

here is how it shakes out for us currently.

 

hand | name| pos | age | projected war | salary

L Eaton CF 26 2.2 PRE

? ? 2B ? ? ?

? ? LF ? ? ?

R Abreu 1B 28 4 7M

? ? DH ? ? ?

R Garcia RF 23 1 PRE

R Flower C 29 .8 ARB

L Gillaspie 3B 27 1.1 PRE

R Ramirez SS 33 2.1 10M

 

For the sake of this conversation lets say they go the following route:

 

Semein is playing 2B steamer projects 1.5WAR for him

 

The sox are able to move Danks + for CarGO and plug him in LF steamer projects 2.7WAR

 

They go conservative and sing Morales and he reproduces his '13 season 1.4WAR

 

our lineup is looking at 16.8WAR.

 

looking at the rotation

 

hand | name| pos | age | projected war | salary

L Sale SP 26 4.6 6M

? ? SP ? ? ?

L Q SP 26 2.6 3.4M

R Noesi SP 28 .1 ARB

? ? SP ? ? ?

 

Again for the sake of this conversation lets say they go the following route:

 

Sign Maeda and he performs similar to Hyun-Jin Ryu in his first year 3.2WAR

 

Rodon starts in the rotation out of the gate and performs up to his parallel David price in his first go around 1.3WAR

 

the sox rotation is at 11.8WAR

 

lastly lets say we get modest contributions from our bench and bullpen this year 2.6WAR total and that includes signing Andrew Miller. By steamer's projections and some liberties by myself with regards to Maeda and Rodon we're still 9 wins from looking at the wildcard.

 

Having said all that I think the projections for a number of the sox are low specifically Eaton, Abreu, Sale, Quintana and Noesi. I feel the sox could be a dark horse for the wildcard in '15 if a few things break their way.

 

 

The new GM would quickly lose his job trading Danks for fan favorite CARGO.

 

Danks would be a complete disaster, as he's already giving up AL-leading homer totals without pitching half his games at COORS.

 

 

This whole Danks/CARGO thing is about as likely as Sale being traded to the Red Sox for their suspect list of prospects.

[BlackSox13]

After taking into account CarGo's splits, injuries, and the fact he's owed 53M over the next three years, I don't get why people continue to bring up his name. Can someone offer a rational explanation please.

 

Shields is another name that gets brought up and yet makes no sense given his age and length of contract he will get.

 

Maeda is another guy I wouldn't get my hopes up for. I'm really hoping the Sox don't waste their time on him.

 

 

[brian310]

I'm team Scherzer. Don't mind them overpaying on one guy when you have Sale and Q locked up cheap, Rodon eventually at minimum for a few years as well as the core position players up that are cheap now.

[witesoxfan]

I'm team Scherzer. Don't mind them overpaying on one guy when you have Sale and Q locked up cheap, Rodon eventually at minimum for a few years as well as the core position players up that are cheap now.

 

Scherzer is probably going to go the way of many pitchers before him where he'll get 7 years and $200+ million while having an opt out after year 3 or 4. Essentially, if he's good, you don't get him very long, and if he's bad and gets hurt, you're even more screwed.

 

I'm letting someone else tackle the headache that will be Max Scherzer.

[shysocks]

I'm team Scherzer. Don't mind them overpaying on one guy when you have Sale and Q locked up cheap, Rodon eventually at minimum for a few years as well as the core position players up that are cheap now.

In theory this makes sense, but the best free agent pitcher of any offseason gets the kind of titanic overpay that makes you say "That team will regret this" even as it's happening.

[BlackSox13]

Scherzer is probably going to go the way of many pitchers before him where he'll get 7 years and $200+ million while having an opt out after year 3 or 4. Essentially, if he's good, you don't get him very long, and if he's bad and gets hurt, you're even more screwed.

 

I'm letting someone else tackle the headache that will be Max Scherzer.

Yup, I get the impression that Scherzer isn't much of a thought in the Sox front office given the offer Scherzer has already turned to hit free agency and get paid. Scherzer is another name Sox fans should just forget about.

 

In theory this makes sense, but the best free agent pitcher of any offseason gets the kind of titanic overpay that makes you say "That team will regret this" even as it's happening.

This is well said. I was saying that when the Halos handed out those contracts to Pujols and Hamilton. I know they aren't pitchers but the point remains the same.

[flavum]

So how's that Beckham PTNBL coming along? I need to know which low-level lefty they're getting.

[Boopa1219]

After taking into account CarGo's splits, injuries, and the fact he's owed 53M over the next three years, I don't get why people continue to bring up his name. Can someone offer a rational explanation please.

 

Shields is another name that gets brought up and yet makes no sense given his age and length of contract he will get.

 

Maeda is another guy I wouldn't get my hopes up for. I'm really hoping the Sox don't waste their time on him.

 

PREACH

[GGajewski18]

George Ofman ‏@georgeofman Oct 7

Look for White Sox to bid high for Cuban free agent Yasmany Tomas. Power corner outfielder who knows Abreu.

 

I'd love this.....