2015 Offseason

[caulfield12]

Avasail is going to be everyday next year, bank on it.

 

Second, they will spend, but im not convinced its next year. The rotation is an issue however and I dont know if they are going to see if they have it in the system or if they have to trade or buy it. Hahn would obviously like to fill the pen through fringe trades like he has recently as well as a garbage heap pickup but the rotation is going to be difficult to patch.

 

I'm hearing there is a ton of payroll room, a TON. But Hahn is reluctant to do a KW and spend money horribly with a team that finishes 10 games out of the division.

 

Hopefully between Sanburn, Olacio and Snodgress, one of those guys makes an impact and soon...Bassit, perhaps. I'm dubious about Taylor Thompson being viable with his lack of overwhelming stuff, but you could have said the same thing about Putnam and he has a way of missing more bats in the 80's than most relievers do in the 90's.

 

Beck's another option for the bullpen, presumably.

[caulfield12]

I'm starting to think the 2015 2-hole hitter isn't on the team yet unless his name is Gillaspie, and by all measures the Sox just don't believe in that. Alexei Ramirez is too easy to get out any time he's not dialed in, and he's consistently trotted out #2. Flowers, Viciedo, Avi, Sanchez & Semien are all too free of swingers or just too inexperienced to give the second most ABs of the season too. If we add a tough-out kinda guy for #2 i think the rest falls into place nicely and we'll be pretty solid top to middle with potential at the bottom. I would love Sanchez/Semien turning the lineup over but not at 2.

 

 

We need that "glue" guy, like Matt Carpenter with the Cardinals who can hit first, second or even third on occasion.

 

Like Orlando Cabrera in his prime, but with a higher walk rate. Or Iguchi would be another example. Semien can't do it unless he dramatically cuts down on his K's. I don't think they'll stick him at 2 until they break him in at the bottom of the order (successfully), 8th or 9th after Flowers.

Edited September 5, 2014 by caulfield12

[Vance Law]

You do not need to draw walks to be a patient hitter, you can work counts to raise the pitchers's pitch total. During his rookie year last year he did just that and he did it again before he was injured.

 

Do you have any evidence to back up the claim that he worked counts? Did he do so as well as the average major leaguer? Did he do so as well as Marcus Semien? Are there any numbers you are using to back this up?

 

Again did you read the article, you want a guy who can drive in runs batting second, Garcia dose that better than Semien and Sanchez.

 

Do you have any evidence that Garcia "drives in runs" better than others? If you were exclusively looking at RBI totals from the minors, those would be affected by where the player batted in the order. Semien hit leadoff quite a bit. Even still he had 66 RBI in 2013 (74 if you include MLB total). Garcia topped out at 67 if you combine minors and majors for 2013.

 

Is hitting extra base hits the best determiner of ability to drive in runs? Garcia never had more than 39 extra base hits in the minors with 14 home runs. Semien had 63 extra base hits in 2013 between the minors and MLB with 21 home runs.

 

Garcia has averaged 3.57 pitches per plate appearance in MLB. Semien has averaged 4.15

[Chicago White Sox]

The guy who bats second gets the most plate appearances.

Is this is a riddle or something? The guy that bats leadoff gets the most plate appearances.

[LDF]

Is this is a riddle or something? The guy that bats leadoff gets the most plate appearances.

 

according to the article, that is what the writer in implying. don't get me wrong on this, I really

don't agree with the article in many ways, but the writer is using the advance stats.

 

It is implying to move Jose A kind of player as a #1 batter and move Eaton to 4 or 5. it also

mention that the #2 batter, now should also be another speed guy.

 

I remember Tony LaRussa when he was coaching the sox wanted the #2 hitter to work the count,

to wait for the ideal pitch, to be patient at the plate for the leadoff man to steal. he didn't like

the #2 hitter to anything if he is onbase to distract from the #3 hitter.

 

working the advance stats is 1 thing, but I can see using the stats with a good base of basic baseball

knowledge. again I will use Tony LaRussa, do you want him to manage by using this advance stat or

by his baseball senses.

[Eminor3rd]

Did you?

 

5th: Complete the “heart” of the order; a good power hitter........

 

Conor Gillaspie doesn't appear to be a good power hitter.

 

2nd: Guy who can drop a bunt or draw a walk.

 

Never seen Avi lay down a bunt, but he sure doesn't seem like a guy who will draw a walk that much.

 

 

No thanks on Gillaspie to LF. I know it's done for defensive purposes, but I'd rather see Semien in LF and Gillaspie stay at 3B.

 

With those guys and using that format the lineup should be...

 

1 Eaton

2 Semien

3 Martinez

4 Abreu

5 Garcia

6 Gillaspie

7 Ramirez

8 Johnson

9 Flowers

 

Which would be a damn good lineup, esp. if Semien can translate his ability to take a walk to the bigs. Eaton, Semien, and Martinez would be on base a lot in front of Abreu.

 

Lol, you very clearly did NOT read the article, since you are citing the part of it where he is describing the traditional batting order roles that he spends the rest of the article arguing are wrong.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Garcia would bat am second because he is a patient hitter, although he has been a bit aggressive since his return from injury, and he is one of the best pure hitters on the team and he is also a run producer. The article said: 'Lesson: bat your best overall hitter – perhaps the one with the highest OPS (OBP plus SLG) or SLG – second in order to drive in more runs over the course of a season.' While that guy would be Abreu it would be better for him if he bats third, so you can sandwich him between Garcia and Martinez.

 

Connor would bat 5th because he has batted 3rd for a good portion of the season, while he dosent steal bases, he dose get on base at a good clip, he's a contact hitter and hits at a high average.

 

The guy who bats second gets the most plate appearances.

 

Dear Joshua Strong,

 

You won't find a bigger batting order geek than me, and so I wholeheartedly appreciate your sentiments. While the article you cited is kind of a poor summary that makes some conclusions that are behind the times, it references some really excellent Tom Tango research from years ago that I think makes a ton of sense. The idea has merit, even if the article kind of misses the mark.

 

All of that said, you are making some bizarre claims here.

 

First, regarding Avisail Garcia: He is not and has never been anything remotely close to a patient hitter. In fact, his inability to recognize pitches and be patient very well may be the only thing stopping him from being great right now. His lack of patience is his biggest flaw. You're right that while walks are a good proxy for patient hitters, they do not define them. What does define a patient hitter is his ability and willingness to choose the right pitches to swing at. An average hitter swings at around 31% of pitches outside the strikezone. Avisail Garcia, this year, swings at 41% of pitches outside the strikezone. The year before? 43%. The year before? 48%, which is totally bonkers. I've never seen an O-Swing figure that high. Not even Dayan Viciedo has reach that stratosphere. In fact, he even swings at more pitches IN the zone than average (74% to 65% avg). Patient he is not.

 

Secondly, the 2nd batter does not get the most plate appearances. Perhaps you meant he gets more than the 5th batter?

 

Finally, regarding Conor Gillaspie: low power is the LAST thing you want in the three hole. The third batter bats with 2 outs and the bases empty more than any other slot, and this is the situation where a homerun is most beneficial. The one thing Conor cannot do is hit homeruns, and so he is most effective in situations where he can drive in runs on singles and doubles. This makes him better sutied for the 2 or 5 slots, but definitely NOT the 3 slot.

 

Thanks for bringing this up, I've done it before and mostly people made fun of me. But it's fun to talk about.

[LDF]

 

you know what really impress me about this season, beside the obvious names of

the sox success. that is the play of cat - Adrian Nieto. I mean think about it, he should

have spent another yr in the minors, but beside the loophole, he played what 40+ games

has about 100 at bats and batted an avg of 240+ strikeout comparing to his hits was

reasonable. this kid may have a future. I wonder where is he going to play this winter.

[cabiness42]

Since the article in question was posted quite a ways back, here it is again: http://cornerthree.net/2014/07/29/the-batt...eir-teams-wins/

 

 

1st: Your player who’s best at not getting out – a high OBP means more reaching base and more run scoring. Speed is an advantage, but a slow player that can draw walks is better than a recklessly swinging burner.

2nd: Your player with the best ability to drive in runs – weighted situations say that putting your best OPS/SLG batter in this slot will lead to the most total runs for a team over the course of the season.

3rd: One of your middle-of-the-pack hitters – not only is this slot fifth out of nine in terms of most important OBP, but it’s second only to the leadoff spot in terms of plate appearances with the bases empty. The spot conventionally reserved for one of your best RBI guys will have few chances to actually get them!

4th: After your best base-reacher and best overall slugger, your third best hitter should bat cleanup, where reaching base will be very valuable and a high slugging percentage will still provide ample opportunity to drive in baserunners.

5th-9th: Starting with middle-of-the-pack guys that are comparable to your number three hitter, put the rest of your hitters in descending order of quality, as those lower in the lineup will receive fewer plate appearances over time and therefore hurt the team effort less. Put players with the ability to steal bases in the earlier slots here to maximize run-scoring potential.

 

So your highest OBP is supposed to bat 1st and your best SLG is supposed to bat 2nd. Abreu leads the Sox in both categories, but since Eaton is only 11 points behind him in OBP, I'd put Eaton 1st and Abreu 2nd. Note that the "traditional leadoff guy" ends up batting leadoff, but it has nothing to do with Eaton's speed and everything to do with the fact that he actually gets on base.

 

Next best hitter is supposed to bat 4th. As of now that's Gillaspie but hopefully there is one bat added to the lineup for next year that is better.

 

Garcia probably slots in at #3, Ramirez at #5 and then Viciedo-Sanchez-Semien-Flowers at 6-7-8-9.

 

So, without additions, the optimized 2015 lineup would be:

 

Eaton 8

Abreu 3

Garcia 9

Gillaspie DH

Ramirez 6

Viciedo 7

Sanchez 4

Semien 5

Flowers 2

 

Of course, there should be at least one addition to the lineup and hopefully two in order to move things down a bit, but it still leaves the optimal 1-2 order as Eaton-Abreu.

Edited September 5, 2014 by HickoryHuskers

[2nd_city_saint787]

Lol, you very clearly did NOT read the article, since you are citing the part of it where he is describing the traditional batting order roles that he spends the rest of the article arguing are wrong.

 

lol nope...

 

 

Thought the top was the basically the cliff notes of the article.....I retract my previous statement

Edited September 5, 2014 by scs787

[southsider2k5]

They'll test the waters but it makes zero sense for the Sox IMO. They think they may have the offense, the pitching on the other hand.....

 

Also, I believe they want to keep Alexei for awhile

 

I'm not sure what the Sox can offer VMart that someone else can't offer more of. There are teams that have a better chance of winning, and others that will offer more money/years on a deal.

[LDF]

Since the article in question was posted quite a ways back, here it is again: http://cornerthree.net/2014/07/29/the-batt...eir-teams-wins/

thanks for the lesson. I am going to reread the other article, read the one you pointed and use

that as a text for your example. hopefully I will start to understand the advance stat theory.

 

this was a great post.

 

[LDF]

I'm not sure what the Sox can offer VMart that someone else can't offer more of. There are teams that have a better chance of winning, and others that will offer more money/years on a deal.

 

also it is up to the player to decide what he wants in the next step. either will be his driving

factor, more money, a better chance of winning esp in the playoff.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm not sure what the Sox can offer VMart that someone else can't offer more of. There are teams that have a better chance of winning, and others that will offer more money/years on a deal.

 

Like Rock said, when the Sox feel like they can compete the payroll, more than likely, will be 100M+. After arbitration I think the Sox will be, at max, around 65M if they offer it to everyone.....If they think VMart puts them over the top, the money is there IMO.

[southsider2k5]

Like Rock said, when the Sox feel like they can compete the payroll, more than likely, will be 100M+. After arbitration I think the Sox will be, at max, around 65M if they offer it to everyone.....If they think VMart puts them over the top, the money is there IMO.

 

Just because the Sox can spend, doesn't mean they will be the highest bidders. If Seattle offers 4/60 to try to get Martinez there, what do the White Sox do to top that?

[2nd_city_saint787]

Just because the Sox can spend, doesn't mean they will be the highest bidders. If Seattle offers 4/60 to try to get Martinez there, what do the White Sox do to top that?

 

It doesn't, but the way you worded it lead me to believe that they wouldn't be able to offer anything comparable to said deal which I believe they can. I wouldn't hate to see them go 4/65 with the deal with the deal being somewhat front loaded, but that is coming from a guy who thinks he'll still be "good" even in the 4th year.

[NorthSideSox72]

V-Mart for four (or more) years seems like a big mistake. I'd hate to see them go more than three.

 

[Rowand44]

Is this is a riddle or something? The guy that bats leadoff gets the most plate appearances.

That was one of the most bizarre claims I've ever seen anywhere in the history of life.

[southsider2k5]

V-Mart for four (or more) years seems like a big mistake. I'd hate to see them go more than three.

 

You have to figure everyone will offer two years for sure, and there probably would be some 3 year offers too. That's why I figure it will take the first team to offer 4 years to sign him.

 

And like I said, most of the teams that will be willing to go that far, are a more desirable location, as they have clearer paths to be in the playoffs when compared to the Sox.

 

I just don't see much of a scenario that results in us signing Martinez, because a lot of other teams will want him as well. Honestly I see him back in Detroit, but I can see a Seattle over paying for him too.

[LDF]

Just because the Sox can spend, doesn't mean they will be the highest bidders. If Seattle offers 4/60 to try to get Martinez there, what do the White Sox do to top that?

 

JR always stated that if needed he can approve spending, imo it also mean spending upward over

100+. but to spend for the sake of spending is what the sox will not do. if the right mixture of

players are there and the sox can go to the final piece of the big pict, they will spend the money.

[Balta1701]

JR always stated that if needed he can approve spending, imo it also mean spending upward over

100+. but to spend for the sake of spending is what the sox will not do. if the right mixture of

players are there and the sox can go to the final piece of the big pict, they will spend the money.

At least last year, the clear thing they showed was that they would be willing to spend but only significantly on long-term guys. To fill short term holes, they'd grab short term stop-gap guys or guys who were looking for bounce back years like Paulino and Downs. They went in on Abreu and Tanaka because those guys were young enough you could believe they could contribute for 5+ years.

 

I'm not sure I see obvious candidates this year who fit that standard, and VMart definitely does not as a 36 year old. For them to go after hi, they'd have to decide to switch modes from last year's "focus on long term solutions" format.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

V-Mart for four (or more) years seems like a big mistake. I'd hate to see them go more than three.

The idea of a VMart hitter at DH is very good . However the only VMart type hitter is VMart. I checked his splits and he's killed, Twins, Royals and Indians. Just the kind of guy we need, strong LH bat that kills division foes. If I was paid by the Sox to do research that's what I'd be looking for, an American League LH who hits very well against our division to lessen the chance of failure.

[Balta1701]

The idea of a VMart hitter at DH is very good . However the only VMart type hitter is VMart. I checked his splits and he's killed, Twins, Royals and Indians. Just the kind of guy we need, strong LH bat that kills division foes. If I was paid by the Sox to do research that's what I'd be looking for, an American League LH who hits very well against our division to lessen the chance of failure.

But then you'd check the age line, realize he's going to be 37 next year, and think "hey, that dramatically increases the chances of failure too".

[LDF]

The idea of a VMart hitter at DH is very good . However the only VMart type hitter is VMart. I checked his splits and he's killed, Twins, Royals and Indians. Just the kind of guy we need, strong LH bat that kills division foes. If I was paid by the Sox to do research that's what I'd be looking for, an American League LH who hits very well against our division to lessen the chance of failure.

 

a very interesting slant on the research....... good point.

 

but as Balta said... age.

[southsider2k5]

JR always stated that if needed he can approve spending, imo it also mean spending upward over

100+. but to spend for the sake of spending is what the sox will not do. if the right mixture of

players are there and the sox can go to the final piece of the big pict, they will spend the money.

 

JR is also not stupid. If you look a the deals the Sox have signed people to, NONE of them were bad when they were signed. A 4/60 to Vmart is a dumb deal before it is signed.