2015 Offseason

[thxfrthmmrs]

The best thing for the Sox is probably Detroit resigning VMart to a 4 year or more deal for over $60 mil. They already have a lot of money committed to Miggy and Verlander who will soon under perform the value of their contract. Add in a bad contract to VMart and perhaps to Scherzer or Price, they would soon become the Yankees of this division.

[Eminor3rd]

The best thing for the Sox is probably Detroit resigning VMart to a 4 year or more deal for over $60 mil. They already have a lot of money committed to Miggy and Verlander who will soon under perform the value of their contract. Add in a bad contract to VMart and perhaps to Scherzer or Price, they would soon become the Yankees of this division.

 

Until the Rangers take the contract off their hands, lol. It still makes me angry that Texas made that Fielder deal.

 

If I'm Dombrowski, I give him the curse of the QO and leave a two year deal on the table for him after he tests the market. Very few AL teams will give up a first round pick for the right to pay a 37 year old DH with bad knees for 3 years. Red Sox and Yankees certainly won't. A's and Rays certainly won't. Indians? I bet he'd choose the Tigers if it's close.

[LDF]

Until the Rangers take the contract off their hands, lol. It still makes me angry that Texas made that Fielder deal.

 

If I'm Dombrowski, I give him the curse of the QO and leave a two year deal on the table for him after he tests the

market. Very few AL teams will give up a first round pick for the right to pay a 37 year old DH with bad knees for

3 years. Red Sox and Yankees certainly won't. A's and Rays certainly won't. Indians? I bet he'd choose the Tigers

if it's close.

 

ah man, that is soo devious, I like it.

[fathom]

I know I previously mentioned Pedro Alvarez as someone the Sox could target. I would love for them to also go after Justin Wilson as their main lefty in the bullpen. He struggled this year, but he has fantastic stuff and would be a big upgrade to the pen.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

But then you'd check the age line, realize he's going to be 37 next year, and think "hey, that dramatically increases the chances of failure too".

Yep which is why I also looked at the splits because of his age. Hard to see a precipitous drop off in his numbers though after such a good season. However 2 years w/ an option for a 3rd. is the most I would offer and that probably won't cut it.

[Balta1701]

Yep which is why I also looked at the splits because of his age. Hard to see a precipitous drop off in his numbers though after such a good season. However 2 years w/ an option for a 3rd. is the most I would offer and that probably won't cut it.

To stress...Victor Martinez returning to what he's been every other year of his career other than 2014 would definitely be a "precipitous drop off". His numbers this year are like the year AJ Pierzynski suddenly hit 25+ home runs. You look at it and say that he'll never even come close to that again.

 

He could still be a productive hitter if he managed to hold up "normal year Victor Martinez", but it's hard for me to see anything other than a precipitous drop off next year, since his career .846 OPS or the .785 OPS he put up last year would be a gigantic drop off from his current numbers.

[southsider2k5]

Since this is the off season thread, let me be the first to get

 

WHY HAVEN'T WE MADE A MOVE YET, WHAT IS RICK HAHN DOING, SLEEPING???

 

out of the way.

[bmags]

maybe he ends up like Edgar Martinez, kickin it until he's 64. Was he a person? i don't remember.

[caulfield12]

Since this is the off season thread, let me be the first to get

 

WHY HAVEN'T WE MADE A MOVE YET, WHAT IS RICK HAHN DOING, SLEEPING???

 

out of the way.

 

There aren't that many tough decisions with our guys other than perhaps viciedo Nate jones and whether to trade Alexis or not depending on the ss trade market. Other teams can sign Hanley hardy asdrubal Cabrera and Drew to name a few.

With viciedo at 1b guessing they want to give him one final shot.

 

Note typing on an iPad sucks!

Edited September 5, 2014 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

There aren't that many tough decisions with our guys other than perhaps viciedo Nate jones and whether to trade Alexis or not depending on the ss trade market. Other teams can sign Hanley hardy asdrubal Cabrera and Drew to name a few.

With viciedo at 1b guessing they want to give him one final shot.

 

Note typing on an iPad sucks!

Um.

[Dick Allen]

I think Victor is going to get a lot of money, but for 2 or 3 years, he is probably worth the gamble. He probabky won't be what he has been this year, but an .850 OPS should be a reasonable expectation. The only time he hasn't been there or over the last several years was last year when he started horribly but really turned it on after missing 2012.

 

 

His market may be limited as I don't think many teams would want him playing in the field much. I still think someone blows him away with money and/or years, but paying him is probably better than sending players back for a similar player. It is possible that like Abreu, the stars may be aligned just right for it to happen.

Edited September 5, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

I think Victor is going to get a lot of money, but for 2 or 3 years, he is probably worth the gamble. He probabky won't be what he has been this year, but an .850 OPS should be a reasonable expectation. The only time he hasn't been there or over the last several years was last year when he started horribly but really turned it on.

 

His market may be limited as I don't think many teams would want him playing in the field much. I still think someone blows him away with money and/or years, but paying him is probably better than sending players back for a similar player. It is possible that like Abreu, the stars may be aligned just right for it to happen.

Technically, the only time he's been over .850 OPS since 2009 is this year. From 2008-2013 he put up an .820 OPS. If you'd said an >.800 OPS is reasonable for him, I'd say I hope you're right. At .850, while getting older, I'm saying you're letting his incredible 2014 campaign blind you to the type of player he really is.

 

Excluding the year he was injured, his OPS in his peak seasons, from age 24-30, stayed mostly around .860 and got to .880 once. You can't tell me thats the profile of a guy you expect to put up .850 ish OPS numbers from 37-39, without even mentioning the odds of hi actually getting hurt.

[Dick Allen]

Technically, the only time he's been over .850 OPS since 2009 is this year. From 2008-2013 he put up an .820 OPS. If you'd said an >.800 OPS is reasonable for him, I'd say I hope you're right. At .850, while getting older, I'm saying you're letting his incredible 2014 campaign blind you to the type of player he really is.

 

Excluding the year he was injured, his OPS in his peak seasons, from age 24-30, stayed mostly around .860 and got to .880 once. You can't tell me thats the profile of a guy you expect to put up .850 ish OPS numbers from 37-39, without even mentioning the odds of hi actually getting hurt.

Well .844 isn't bad and .850 is right there. Last year he was coming off an injury and was over .900 the second half. He makes a ton of contact and has been pretty consistent. Considering he has been putting up .850 OPS like numbers since 2004, and doesn't appear to be slowing down with the bat, it is more than a reasonable assumption.

 

If we all use your logic, he wouldn't be putting up the numbers he has been putting up.

 

As long as he can hit fastballs, he will be a great hitter. Unless he gets injured, I doubt that drops significantly the next couple of seasons. He is perfect for the White Sox. A switch hitting presence who puts the ball in play and hits with authority. If it only costs money, it is well worth the gamble. Again, I think someone will probably go crazy and he will wind up somewhere else, but there are some things that could indicate that maybe he his price tag will be right.

[Jerksticks]

Well .844 isn't bad and .850 is right there. Last year he was coming off an injury and was over .900 the second half. He makes a ton of contact and has been pretty consistent. Considering he has been putting up .850 OPS like numbers since 2004, and doesn't appear to be slowing down with the bat, it is more than a reasonable assumption.

 

If we all use your logic, he wouldn't be putting up the numbers he has been putting up.

 

As long as he can hit fastballs, he will be a great hitter. Unless he gets injured, I doubt that drops significantly the next couple of seasons. He is perfect for the White Sox. A switch hitting presence who puts the ball in play and hits with authority. If it only costs money, it is well worth the gamble. Again, I think someone will probably go crazy and he will wind up somewhere else, but there are some things that could indicate that maybe he his price tag will be right.

I don't think I'd be opposed to 2/$40M. He's a good hitter. That's what he is and that's what we need. I like that you can get that quality of hitter without shelling out 7 years worth of risk. His discipline won't age.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Well .844 isn't bad and .850 is right there. Last year he was coming off an injury and was over .900 the second half. He makes a ton of contact and has been pretty consistent. Considering he has been putting up .850 OPS like numbers since 2004, and doesn't appear to be slowing down with the bat, it is more than a reasonable assumption.

 

If we all use your logic, he wouldn't be putting up the numbers he has been putting up.

 

As long as he can hit fastballs, he will be a great hitter. Unless he gets injured, I doubt that drops significantly the next couple of seasons. He is perfect for the White Sox. A switch hitting presence who puts the ball in play and hits with authority. If it only costs money, it is well worth the gamble. Again, I think someone will probably go crazy and he will wind up somewhere else, but there are some things that could indicate that maybe he his price tag will be right.

 

The bold is my key to him being a quality 3-4 more years in the league. He makes a ton of contact because he's just such a smart hitter who has an uncanny eye for the strike zone. The guy had a streak of 641 plate appearances without being called out on strikes. That's ridiculous.....I think guys like him can play till the'yre 40 esp. as a DH.

[Balta1701]

As long as he can hit fastballs, he will be a great hitter. Unless he gets injured, I doubt that drops significantly the next couple of seasons. He is perfect for the White Sox. A switch hitting presence who puts the ball in play and hits with authority. If it only costs money, it is well worth the gamble. Again, I think someone will probably go crazy and he will wind up somewhere else, but there are some things that could indicate that maybe he his price tag will be right.

Thankfully ballplayers um, don't slow down in their late 30's?

 

My guess numbers are him are...if you're ok with him putting up .800 OPS numbers 2 of the next 3 years and being hurt for part of the third, and you think that puts you over the top next year, sign him. Doing better than that is certainly possible, but him falling off more quickly than that is probably just about as likely. You could quarrel with the numbers slightly, maybe you say .825 OPS is the mid-level, but does that put this team over the top if it's the main FA add this offseason along with a couple relievers?

 

And yes...he shouldn't' be doing this this year. Guys sometimes do things stunning. That can happen on both sides. The Tigers got lucky and got an incredible season out of him this year following a lost season and an iffy/recovery season. The other side though is the Adam Dunn "he shouldn't be nearly this terrible this year".

[caulfield12]

I don't think I'd be opposed to 2/$40M. He's a good hitter. That's what he is and that's what we need. I like that you can get that quality of hitter without shelling out 7 years worth of risk. His discipline won't age.

 

Except we would lose him in 2017 and have to find another big bat just when we are in the middle of our prime contention window. So unless it's three years...but then fifty or sixty million over three years seems completely ill-advised.

[max power]

I'd rather see that 40m go toward a contract that is long term.

[Eminor3rd]

Victor Martinez is at the age and level of fragility that when he begins to decline, it will likely be a very sharp, immediate dropoff. Someone is going to pay him coming off a year that he isn't likely to repeat even if he stays completely healthy. And it's gonna cost a draft pick, and it's going to sacrifice flexibility on the bench.

 

He fits somewhere that he can be the final piece. If we're spending money, we need to be shopping for building blocks. He's good, but it's just not the right move for us at this juncture.

[Eminor3rd]

Jonah Keri on the White Sox as a 2015 "sleeper": http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-the-...kees-white-sox/

 

Race to the Bottom

 

The swooning Reds join the ranks of the downtrodden.

 

30. Texas Rangers (54-89, -148 run differential, no. 29 last week)

29. Colorado Rockies (59-84, -74, LW: 30)

28. Arizona Diamondbacks (59-84, -101, LW: 28)

27. Minnesota Twins (61-82, -58, LW: 25)

26. Boston Red Sox (63-80, -73, LW: 26)

25. Houston Astros (63-80, -85, LW: 27)

24. Chicago White Sox (63-79, -86, LW: 24)

23. Philadelphia Phillies (66-76, -54, LW: 22)

22. Chicago Cubs (64-79, -56, LW: 23)

21. Cincinnati Reds (67-76, -9, LW: 19)

20. San Diego Padres (66-76, -39, LW: 20)

19. New York Mets (68-75, -4, LW: 21)

 

Thanks to the offseason acquisitions of Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, a helpless White Sox offense now has two vital pieces: an on-base machine at the top of the lineup, and an MVP-caliber slugger in the middle. The Sox also have Chris Sale, who’s one of the best left-handers in the game and who’s signed to one of the league’s most attractive contracts; Jose Quintana, who’s arguably the most underrated pitcher in baseball; and Alexei Ramirez, a quality shortstop who’s signed through 2015, with an option year in 2016.

 

Now, the question becomes whether the White Sox can build around that five-man nucleus quickly and effectively enough to contend next season. Here’s a look at how they’ll need to attack three key areas.

 

1. The rotation: Despite the excellence of Sale and Quintana, the White Sox rank 27th in the majors in starting pitching ERA. For that, they can thank a miserable lack of quality depth: Scott Carroll, Andre Rienzo, Erik Johnson, Charlie Leesman, Chris Bassitt, and Felipe Paulino combined to make 39 starts this year, producing a 6.36 ERA in 232 innings. An optimist would argue that such incompetence actually creates an opportunity for next year: Find even a decent mid- or back-rotation starter to replace those innings, and the Sox could easily add three or more wins.

 

Carlos Rodon has the ability to put up decent numbers, and maybe considerably more. A 6-foot-3, 234-pound bruiser out of NC State and the third overall pick in this year’s amateur draft, Rodon has fanned 38 batters in 24.2 innings across three minor league levels, ending his season at Triple-A Charlotte. He’s expected to compete for a rotation job next spring, and scouts say he’s skilled and polished enough to succeed quickly if he wins the gig.

 

If Rodon can perform the way management hopes, the White Sox will employ the best trio of lefty starters in the game. They could still use a veteran innings eater to provide some stability in the middle of the rotation, particularly with John Danks looking like a $14.25 million–a-year albatross rather than the All-Star-caliber pitcher he was a few years ago. Still, the foundation is in place for Chicago to assemble one of the best and youngest rotations in the majors.

 

chris-sale-miguel-cabrera

 

2. The bullpen: Only the lowly Rockies and Astros own worse bullpen ERAs than the White Sox. Once again, however, we can actually count this year’s incompetence as upside in Chicago: Rebuilding teams have no reason to throw big money at top relievers, because much like $10,000 leather seats would do little to make your 1989 Chevy Corsica markedly nicer,1 great relievers do little to help bad teams. The White Sox invested very little in this year’s bullpen, especially after trading away Addison Reed to Arizona, and they spent most of the year throwing spaghetti against the wall in the hope that some young pitchers might stick. The 27-year-old Zach Putnam and 26-year-old Jake Petricka look like the best of the bunch, while 25-year-old Daniel Webb and other young arms offer additional potential. The Sox can ride this talent and invest in more.

 

3. The lineup: Offensively, the White Sox have improved considerably over the team that lost 99 games and finished last in the AL in runs scored last season. Eaton, Ramirez, and Abreu held down the top three spots in the order this year, and we should expect the same next season. The Sox are also high on Avisail Garcia, the 23-year-old slugger acquired in last year’s three-way deadline deal for Jake Peavy; Garcia has struck out nearly five times more often than he’s walked so far in his brief major league career, but scouts like his power potential. Flip through the rest of this year’s lineup and there are more talented twentysomething players with upside, namely third baseman Conor Gillaspie, who’s hitting a smidge below .300 with doubles power, and 22-year-old Carlos Sanchez and 23-year-old Marcus Semien, who figure to compete for the second base job next year.2

 

Best of all, Chicago’s young, affordable corps allows the team to do some major shopping this winter, if GM Rick Hahn & Co. think this team is ready to contend. Money can buy that midtier veteran starting pitcher (Brandon McCarthy? Jason Hammel? Brett Anderson, if the Rockies decline his option?). It can upgrade the bullpen without breaking the bank (Pat Neshek? Luke Gregerson?). And it can give the Abreu-and-Eaton-led lineup the lift it needs to form a top-five AL offense (Russell Martin? Melky Cabrera? Nelson Cruz?). With just $46 million committed for next season and an exponentially brighter outlook now than they had a year ago, the White Sox could be one of the biggest sleeper teams entering 2015.

[Boopa1219]

Except we would lose him in 2017 and have to find another big bat just when we are in the middle of our prime contention window. So unless it's three years...but then fifty or sixty million over three years seems completely ill-advised.

 

They wont start contending till 2016, 2015 I expect them to go .500

[greg775]

They wont start contending till 2016, 2015 I expect them to go .500

What changes will they make to improve enough to be .500? My fear is it's another wasted year of Sale.

[cabiness42]

I realize that this is much easier said than done, especially when you are targeting specific players, but this would make for a nice offseason:

 

FA signings: Melky Cabrera (OF-S), Brandon McCarthy (SP-R), Matt Lindstrom (RP-R), Luke Gregorson (RP-R), Joe Thatcher (RP-L)

 

Starting Lineup:

Eaton CF

Cabrera LF

Abreu 1B

Gillaspie/Viciedo DH

AGarcia RF

Ramirez SS

Sanchez/Semien 2B

Semien/Gillaspie 3B

Flowers C

 

Bench: Phegley, Sierra, Danks/LGarcia

 

Rotation:

 

Sale L

Quintana L

McCarthy R

Danks L/Noesi R/Rodon L

Danks L/Noesi R/Rodon L

 

Bullpen:

 

Lindstrom R

Gregorson R

Thatcher L

Putnam R

Petricka R

Guerra R

Carroll R/Danks L/Noesi R

 

Let Danks, Noesi and Rodon battle it out in Spring Training for the #4/5 spots. If Rodon loses out he goes back to AAA and Carroll is long relief. If Danks or Noesi lose out then they go to long relief. Yes, I am potentially taking a guy making $14.25M and putting him in the bullpen, but if he isn't good enough to be one of the five best starters and he can't be traded, then the bullpen is where he belongs.

 

I don't know if the Sox have shed enough payroll to afford all those guys, but it would be a nice get.

[Balta1701]

The one thing about signing BMac that would make sense is that you're almost guaranteed to have an opening for Rodon within a reasonable portion of time.

[southsider2k5]

I love Brandon McCarthy, but signing him and depending on him is just stupid. I am fully convinced that the Sox saw a flaw in his motion, which is why they dealt him so quickly. I very seriously doubt they want him back.