2015 Offseason

[witesoxfan]

I do not understand you guys.

 

You could not WAIT to get Adam Dunn out of town -- a lefthanded DH who strikes out a ton (30.6%) and is putting up a 117 wRC+ -- because he was grossly overpaid at $14m per year.

 

Now we want to take on the ass end of Josh Hamilton's backloaded contract -- a lefthanded DH/OF who strikes out a ton (28.6%) and is putting up a 113 wRC+ -- at like $25m per year.

 

So what if they throw money in? It's still going to be at least Adam Dunn money for a declining, injury prone, one dimensional DH-in the making.

 

I, for one, greatly appreciated what Dunn did, but that's beside the point. I'm basically just trying to figure out what Hahn is getting at and Hamilton and Ethier are ideas and connecting the dots. I think I would honestly rather that the Sox started Wilkins all year to see if they have anything in him.

[caulfield12]

Just last year Ethier was a 119 wRC+ player and he's consistently been in the 120s and 130s in his career. If you replace Viciedo with Ethier, you are talking about a huge, huge upgrade both offensively and defensively. That's nothing to scoff at. He's a better hitter and better power threat than Markakis is.

 

He's also better than James Loney too.

 

You are also missing the points where Hahn is looking for a left handed bat, Kemp bats right handed, and he's still going to cost much more on the trade market. Why have you not acknowledged those points?

 

I also don't understand why you're justifying not acquiring him because he wouldn't be the centerpiece of your offseason. That's ridiculous. Andre Nieto wasn't the centerpiece of last offseason, so did the Sox make a bad move in bringing him in? Who cares if he wouldn't be the "centerpiece?" You would assume more than one move is made. In the 2004-05 offseason, who was the White Sox "centerpice?" I ask because there was no centerpiece, there was a collection of moves made that seemingly all worked out and the Sox ended up winning the World Series as a result.

 

Or you get the player who's falling off the map as he's reaching his early to mid 30's in the new game of baseball.

 

You also get a player who will struggle to adjust coming from the NL to the AL, as typically happens.

 

If we're buying him for his 2011-2013 production against righties, and we can guarantee he's the same player, sure....but you can look at examples of players like Juan Pierre we acquired a couple of years late in the aging process (albeit a different type of player, more like getting Carl Crawford now would be for the Sox.)

 

What I meant was if Andre Ethier is the BIGGEST move of the offseason, that's NOT a good thing for 2015. Because he's a platoon guy at this point in his career. If memory serves me correctly, Dye, AJ, Iguchi and Pods were all pretty much everyday players in 2005, although Pods struggled some against lefties I think.

 

So giving Ethier 400 at-bats and Viciedo 150-175 makes that position league average....unless his OPS is closer to the 700 he's put up this season against RHP than the 900 he's recorded the previous two seasons...and Viciedo struggles with even more timing issues because he's not acclimated to such sporadic playing time.

 

We would have thought Keppinger and Gillaspie could be well above league average, and the same's being projected now with Semien and Conor, but would anyone be totally shocked if we ended up WORSE than replacement player level there if you combine offense/defense at that position?

 

As far as Nieto goes, he's the 24th/25th man on the roster. He wasn't promoted in any way, shape or form by the Sox in the offseason to sell season tickets. At least Ethier's one of those more familiar names in baseball who would have his own banner in Moneyball, kind of synonymous with Dave Justice at this point in his playing career.

 

 

Other than Victor Martinez, how many players in the last couple of seasons have started to decline in their 30's and then turned it around, especially if you combine that with a change in leagues? Cuddyer or Morneau, maybe? 90% continue that downward trend. At least in this "post PED's" era of baseball, where players are done at 34-36 rather than 38-40.

Edited September 10, 2014 by caulfield12

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Whatever happens I trust Hahn. I wish we'd get a new manager but that's another subject.

 

We've won 64 games with Sale missing a month, Avi missing basically all season until August, the worst bullpen in team history, and a horrible back of the rotation minus Noesi.

 

I'm excited for the offseason because I trust the front office.

[caulfield12]

Just last year Ethier was a 119 wRC+ player and he's consistently been in the 120s and 130s in his career. If you replace Viciedo with Ethier, you are talking about a huge, huge upgrade both offensively and defensively. That's nothing to scoff at. He's a better hitter and better power threat than Markakis is.

 

He's also better than James Loney too.

 

You are also missing the points where Hahn is looking for a left handed bat, Kemp bats right handed, and he's still going to cost much more on the trade market. Why have you not acknowledged those points?

 

I also don't understand why you're justifying not acquiring him because he wouldn't be the centerpiece of your offseason. That's ridiculous. Andre Nieto wasn't the centerpiece of last offseason, so did the Sox make a bad move in bringing him in? Who cares if he wouldn't be the "centerpiece?" You would assume more than one move is made. In the 2004-05 offseason, who was the White Sox "centerpice?" I ask because there was no centerpiece, there was a collection of moves made that seemingly all worked out and the Sox ended up winning the World Series as a result.

 

Or you get the player who's falling off the map as he's reaching his early to mid 30's in the new game of baseball.

 

You also get a player who will struggle to adjust coming from the NL to the AL, as typically happens.

 

If we're buying him for his 2011-2013 production against righties, and we can guarantee he's the same player, sure....but you can look at examples of players like Juan Pierre we acquired a couple of years late in the aging process (albeit a different type of player, more like getting Carl Crawford now would be for the Sox.)

 

What I meant was if Andre Ethier is the BIGGEST move of the offseason, that's NOT a good thing for 2015. Because he's a platoon guy at this point in his career. If memory serves me correctly, Dye, AJ, Iguchi and Pods were all pretty much everyday players in 2005, although Pods struggled some against lefties I think.

 

So giving Ethier 400 at-bats and Viciedo 150-175 makes that position league average....unless his OPS is closer to the 700 he's put up this season against RHP than the 900 he's recorded the previous two seasons...and Viciedo struggles with even more timing issues because he's not acclimated to such sporadic playing time.

 

We would have thought Keppinger and Gillaspie could be well above league average, and the same's being projected now with Semien and Conor, but would anyone be totally shocked if we ended up WORSE than replacement player level there if you combine offense/defense at that position?

 

As far as Nieto goes, he's the 24th/25th man on the roster. He wasn't promoted in any way, shape or form by the Sox in the offseason to sell season tickets. At least Ethier's one of those more familiar names in baseball who would have his own banner in Moneyball, kind of synonymous with Dave Justice at this point in his playing career.

 

Remember...Hahn said over and over again he wants to acquire players closer to their prime/most productive years who'll be a part of the present and future of this team??? Andre Ethier on paper this year looks like a downgrade from Alex Rios even.

Edited September 10, 2014 by caulfield12

[lasttriptotulsa]

I do not understand you guys.

 

You could not WAIT to get Adam Dunn out of town -- a lefthanded DH who strikes out a ton (30.6%) and is putting up a 117 wRC+ -- because he was grossly overpaid at $14m per year.

 

Now we want to take on the ass end of Josh Hamilton's backloaded contract -- a lefthanded DH/OF who strikes out a ton (28.6%) and is putting up a 113 wRC+ -- at like $25m per year.

 

So what if they throw money in? It's still going to be at least Adam Dunn money for a declining, injury prone, one dimensional DH-in the making.

 

This. He's owed $89 million over the next three years. Unless the Angels are willing to throw in around $60 million, I want no part of Josh Hamilton.

[LDF]

This. He's owed $89 million over the next three years. Unless the Angels are willing to throw in around $60 million, I want no part of Josh Hamilton.

 

there is no way in hades the sox will spend that much for an over the hill, slowing down hitter that

is lock for 3+ yrs with a high salary. plus there is no reason to invest that kind of commitment

esp when there are major holes on the team.

[witesoxfan]

This. He's owed $89 million over the next three years. Unless the Angels are willing to throw in around $60 million, I want no part of Josh Hamilton.

 

For the record, that's been about the only way it's ever been in consideration.

[southsider2k5]

For the record, that's been about the only way it's ever been in consideration.

 

Yeah, there is zero chance the Sox pick up all of a deal like that, unless a star player is thrown in to go with it. I think even more likely is that John Danks goes someone in a deal like this, and then the need to send cash gets lessened greatly.

[professa]

I love the idea of getting Ethier, but I don't think LA would want to take on Danks in return...I'd think LA would rather scoop up a starting pitcher of better quality in the free agent market...Ethier still has 3 yrs at ~17 per...I'd take him if they ate 10 million per year and stick him in left.

 

Offseason Moves

Trade Andre Ethier and 10 mil per year for Josh Phegley

Trade John Danks for Edwin Jackson

Sign Victor Martinez 4/60

Sign K Rod 2/12

Sign Andrew Miller 3/21

Sign Justin Masterson 1/8

 

Lineup (RH/LH)

1. Eaton CF

2. Ramirez SS

3. Abreu 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Garcia RF

6. Ethier/Viciedo LF

7. Gillaspie/Semien 3B

8. Sanchez, Johnson, ect.

9. Flowers

 

Rotation

1. Sale

2. Masterson

3. Quintana

4. Jackson

5. Noesi

 

Pen

CL Rodriguez

SU Miller

SU Petricka

MR Putnam

MR Guerra

MR Webb

MR Spring Training Surprise

 

Once Rodon comes up, you can throw masterson, jackson, or noesi in the pen. All have good enough stuff to be able to do a decent job in there.

 

[peavy44]

I love the idea of getting Ethier, but I don't think LA would want to take on Danks in return...I'd think LA would rather scoop up a starting pitcher of better quality in the free agent market...Ethier still has 3 yrs at ~17 per...I'd take him if they ate 10 million per year and stick him in left.

 

Offseason Moves

Trade Andre Ethier and 10 mil per year for Josh Phegley

Trade John Danks for Edwin Jackson

Sign Victor Martinez 4/60

Sign K Rod 2/12

Sign Andrew Miller 3/21

Sign Justin Masterson 1/8

 

Lineup (RH/LH)

1. Eaton CF

2. Ramirez SS

3. Abreu 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Garcia RF

6. Ethier/Viciedo LF

7. Gillaspie/Semien 3B

8. Sanchez, Johnson, ect.

9. Flowers

 

Rotation

1. Sale

2. Masterson

3. Quintana

4. Jackson

5. Noesi

 

Pen

CL Rodriguez

SU Miller

SU Petricka

MR Putnam

MR Guerra

MR Webb

MR Spring Training Surprise

 

Once Rodon comes up, you can throw masterson, jackson, or noesi in the pen. All have good enough stuff to be able to do a decent job in there.

 

 

 

Vmart will sign with tigers and Jackson for danks is worse.

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

Yeah, there is zero chance the Sox pick up all of a deal like that, unless a star player is thrown in to go with it. I think even more likely is that John Danks goes someone in a deal like this, and then the need to send cash gets lessened greatly.

 

Yeah if we do pick up a high salary guy I think it will have to be a bad contract for bad contract swap at least in part.

Edited September 10, 2014 by lasttriptotulsa

[witesoxfan]

Vmart will sign with tigers and Jackson for danks is worse.

 

I strongly disagree that Danks is better than Jackson.

[professa]

Vmart will sign with tigers and Jackson for danks is worse.

 

Jackson is not as bad as Danks. Look at the FIP.

 

[witesoxfan]

Jackson is not as bad as Danks. Look at the FIP.

 

I would just say they've both been terrible this year. FIP just says that Jackson should have put up better numbers, but he didn't, so we can't suddenly take that away from him. I think, long-term (which is 2 years), there is more upside with Jackson but a safer pitcher in Danks, which is to say that both will likely be bad moving forward.

 

My thought regarding that was that, at the very least, Jackson could theoretically be good out of the pen with his arsenal, but that's not a given either.

[peavy44]

I want neither on the white sox in 2015.

Edited September 10, 2014 by peavy44

[ILMOU]

I want either on the white sox in 2015.

 

Pretty sure you mean neither, and I agree. "Going for it" means not planning on Danks as one of the five, unless they decide to give him until, oh say, mid-May/early June to make himself tradeable. Otherwise he's our $14.25M LOOGY.

[Balta1701]

Pretty sure you mean neither, and I agree. "Going for it" means not planning on Danks as one of the five, unless they decide to give him until, oh say, mid-May/early June to make himself tradeable. Otherwise he's our $14.25M LOOGY.

LOL, I read that as a misspelling of Ethier.

[BlackSox13]

Jackson's ERA is full run higher than Danks

 

Jackson walks more batters

 

Jackson has a higher WHIP

 

Jackson pitches in the NL

 

Jackson is two hears older than Danks

 

And Jackson is a better option than Danks? Someone please explain this to me.

[ILMOU]

LOL, I read that as a misspelling of Ethier.

 

Funny. I may have been fooled by the non-capitalization style. I guess it could be eithier.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[Vance Law]

I think Caufield and Wite are both right. Kemp is the better bet to get back to being star-caliber. That's why a) Dodgers are more likely to want to keep him b) other teams are more likely to want to acquire him, making his price tag higher. Eithier is more likely one the Dodgers would like to move. He has had his worst season, but he has a career .889 OPS against righties over 3500 PAs. Assuming he can get back to something closer to that, it's a big upgrade over De Aza's production in a platoon.

 

But yes, if acquiring Ethier is the biggest thing the Sox do, it doesn't make much sense. Which is why that won't happen. Because Rick Hahn isn't an idiot. If they are making a concerted effort to compete next year, bringing in some players who you can't count on to be especially good for more than a few years while our prospects work their way up the ranks, Ethier can make sense as piece of that puzzle. Especially if what you're giving up to get Ethier is mainly money (like on the FA market) and not a youngster of value comparable to a 2nd round draft pick.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Ugh...Edwin Jackson sucks, and so does Masterson. No to both of those guys.

[greg775]

I strongly disagree that Danks is better than Jackson.

Jackson is another guy you don't want on your team. Now as a one-inning bullpen guy? Sure. I'd take him in a second over hacks like Bella.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Totally out of the blue, but...

 

Would the Astros take Connor Gillaspie and Tyler Flowers for Jason Castro?

 

If you think Connor is more a platoon type, and Flowers isn't going to get any better, then anyone think those 2 could get us Castro coming off a bad year? Of course you'd only do it thinking that Castro would turn it around here & could be extended. If this deal had been proposed several months ago it would have been laughable, but I think both Connor & Tyler have raised their status significantly since the offseason while Castro's stock has really fallen.

 

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

I think the best thing we can do with Danks is shop him hard as a veteran lefty 5th starter who should continue to grow into his repertoire, and offer to eat as much money as necessary to get him to that point.

 

With Danks IMO we could at least get $5M per salary relief, hopefully a bit more.

 

Let's say we can get $6M per off the books without getting anything back, for the sake of argument. If Danks is gone we really don't lose anything, we just gain another rotation slot to fill with someone who offers more potential while gaining an additional $6M in salary room. Even if the Sox just pocket that money in the end, it may at least improve our chances of upping the payroll a bit more later on when we have to. We really don't lose anything and we'd gain quite a bit.

 

OTOH if we keep Danks in the rotation, while it is possible that the results would improve, he's not going to "pitch" his way back to a low-90's fastball, and so even with improved conditioning and a better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses and further growth as a pitcher, he's not going to do anything to convince anyone he's more than a back-end starter in terms of stuff. So, we really have little to gain there. If he stays he's better off in the bullpen, but I think the best thing for the Sox and Danks both is if he's starting somewhere else.

 

Eithier, Hamilton, Jackson all make some sense one way or another, but at the end of the day, if we take on one of these guys, even if money is eaten on the other end, we're likely further limiting payroll room beyond the level at which Danks' deal limits us. And because of the room open, Danks deal isn't really going to hamper us much, it's just that he's redundant at best as a starter and really only valuable to us on the field potentially in the bullpen. With Rodon here Danks is likely to be our 4th best lefty starter. So it just makes baseball sense to take the extra bit of payroll room as the silver lining and ditch as much of the deal as possible.

Edited September 10, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[hi8is]

Totally out of the blue, but...

 

Would the Astros take Connor Gillaspie and Tyler Flowers for Jason Castro?

 

If you think Connor is more a platoon type, and Flowers isn't going to get any better, then anyone think those 2 could get us Castro coming off a bad year? Of course you'd only do it thinking that Castro would turn it around here & could be extended. If this deal had been proposed several months ago it would have been laughable, but I think both Connor & Tyler have raised their status significantly since the offseason while Castro's stock has really fallen.

They'd be silly not to take that deal... And I'm on the fence as to if the Sox should do so if the offer was on the table.