2015 Offseason

[The Ultimate Champion]

Agree hugely on VMart. He fits the profile of the slow-to-age professional hitter, as long as the overall health is there. He's a real game-changer for the lineup batting behind Jose. AND we'd be taking him from a chief rival. If nothing else, the strategy should be to force someone else to overpay for him, if the Sox can't land him.

 

Some of the whippersnappers may not remember how good Julio Franco was hitting behind the Big Hurt. It rocked. This could be similar.

Yeah & he's a DH, that's a huge part of it.

 

Teams need to build to their own strengths.

 

Our 2 strengths (as best I can tell): developing pitching and keeping players healthy.

 

I still think the best thing we can do for this team is add another starter, because we're really close to having that really good rotation & it's a lot easier to build around pitching & defense than offense. But if you could pick up a #2 RHSP *and* land VMart in the same offseason... well... we could surprise some people for sure I think.

[Eminor3rd]

We'll have to agree to disagree, Team VMart. I do NOT want to pay him for his random career year, foregoing the next Spencer Adams and signing up for a better than 50/50 shot at an ugly, expensive fall from grace in a couple years when we're better positioned to compete.

 

Don't get me wrong, guys, I like the IDEA of Victor Martinez, too. But all the signs are there, guys. All the signs.

 

It's like this:

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

think about it this way, which came first the chicken or the egg?

 

how can someone think about attendance with out putting the product on the field. you also

have to remember the mentality of the sox fans. we are a tough sell and we demand high

rtns for our investment of season tickets.

 

the northsiders thing of the game as social time. I also remember back in the 80's the newpaper

came out a how to define the sCrubs fan and sox fan. during a game you ask the northsider what

going on, that person wouldn't even know what you are talking about. now ask the sox fan and

the response with be given in terms of score, men on base, trade possiblility, the performance of pitcher,

what the GM needs to do and whether the sox have a chance of playoff.

The fans will show up when the product is consistently good.

 

It's a very different world now with all the money in the league, in licensing, TV & radio deals, revenue sharing, etc. in that you don't necessarily need a packed house to make money and pay for a good product.

 

Every year as a general rule when you look around the league the best players are playing on the best contracts. You can win with big payrolls and small payrolls provided you make the right moves. For us I would be shocked if we didn't have the room to take on some big contracts (it would be more bulls*** from the FO about spending a dollar when you only have 50 cents etc) but still, I don't necessarily think that is the way to go. It's probably better to look for decent values on the FA market than take on a bunch of extra money in rebound candidates that you're really just praying on. At least in the FA market vs. say Kemp or Hamilton you get to put the guy through a physical and you have his last season plus to go by as performance indicators.

 

Re: Danks I think it's best to just save as much as we can in a deal, otherwise move him to the pen.

[Balta1701]

Re: Danks I think it's best to just save as much as we can in a deal, otherwise move him to the pen.

I was pondering this earlier today and thinking that Danks would make a very poor LOOGY since his changeup is much more effective against righties than lefties, but I'm wondering whether there'd be any worth in trying to have him close.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I was pondering this earlier today and thinking that Danks would make a very poor LOOGY since his changeup is much more effective against righties than lefties, but I'm wondering whether there'd be any worth in trying to have him close.

If you think about it, even a remotely effective lefty specialist is going to be worth $1.5-2M or so on the open market. A long man that can do a pretty good job, probably is worth $1M although those guys I think are brutally undervalued & underpaid given how important they can be in eating up innings and allowing the better arms in the back of the pen to stick in their roles.

 

All told if you could use Danks as a relatively effective lefty specialist and long man (and I don't think that's a huge stretch at all) you are doing the following:

1) You are getting your second lefty in the pen; as it is we need 2, a lefty SU type and another one, so we'd have that shopping list down a tad

2) You are also getting your long reliever as a lefty, which keeps you from having to take on someone like Carroll/Rienzo/etc in that role, which in effect creates an additional roster spot in the pen

3) As of right now you're paying Danks $14.25M to put up numbers in the 5 spot that you'd expect out of someone making $2M or less, and when it comes to in-house guys, you're getting numbers out of Danks that you could replace by running out someone making $500K. So you're essentially eating at least $12.25M in performance deficits now at the 5 slot, and you're thinking about a $500K guy (carroll, etc) as a long man and probably spending at least $1-2M on a second lefty with a pulse. So you're at least $12.25M in the hole plus the added $1.5-2.5M you're going to have to spend to cover the LR & second lefty roles, meaning you're looking at spending something like $15.75M+ for a s***ty 5th starter, a warm body second lefty, and Carroll or whatever (3 spots).

4) Move Danks to the pen, and should he work as a relatively effective lefty specialist and long man, you're gaining a roster spot and you're talking about getting maybe $2-3M or more out of performance value out of the pen. You're saving the cost of Carroll/etc. and you're saving the cost of the second lefty. So now Danks is still making his $14.25M but you have 2 roster spots filled and the guy taking over in the rotation is making $500K. So with Danks as the 2nd lefty + long man with Rodon in the rotation you're spending $14.75M on 3 roles taking up 2 roster spots, *and* you are giving Rodon a veteran lefty to learn a thing or two from as well. Plus Danks is Rodon/Noesi insurance.

 

I think, in short, that's it's a smarter and more cost effective way of operating. I still think that if you can save $10M+ on the deal in a trade you obviously do that, but if you can't get anyone to take on the cash, you can actually make use of him and maybe make the team better.

 

Of course I expect the Sox to offer to eat no less than $3-4M per, not move Danks, start Rodon in Charlotte or the pen, piss on the first 2-3 months of the season, run Danks out there as the #5 to try to save a few bucks, and in the end, just like with Dunn, they'll get really nothing for their troubles but more losing. At least with soemone else at the #5 (someone younger) you are potentially developing a future core piece. Danks going out there is pointless because while his numbers may improve enough to make him more tradeable, he's not going to pitch his way back to the low-90's fastball Danks we saw before, meaning that no matter what other teams are still going to view him as a back-end type and cap his annual value at $9M per or less. And the type of package they'd offer for him would reflect that, and it would be underwhelming.

Edited September 11, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[The Ultimate Champion]

^My last post was confusing, but my point is this:

 

We need 2 lefties in the pen, 5 pitchers in the rotation, and a long man no matter what.

 

Danks is getting $14.25M no matter what, we can't do anything about that.

 

Right now we're looking at Surkamp/Snodgress/garbage as that second lefty, and if we want to upgrade that it'll at least cost $1-2M on the open market. JUST as a specialist.

 

Right now Carroll/Rienzo/garbage is probably the long man.

 

Danks is in the rotation.

 

At minimum, we're talking about 3 roster spots to fill at a combined pricetag of $15.25M or so after minimums go to in-house options. If we want to upgrade over the second lefty we're looking at something more like $16.25-17.25M for those same three spots.

 

Move Danks to the pen, have him be BOTH the second lefty AND the long man, while putting Rodon in the rotation. This costs 2 roster spots rather than 3, it costs $14.75M which is cheaper, and we'd likely be upgrading all three of those roles (Danks > Carroll/Surkamp/Garbage & Rodon > Danks).

 

 

[witesoxfan]

^My last post was confusing, but my point is this:

 

We need 2 lefties in the pen, 5 pitchers in the rotation, and a long man no matter what.

 

Danks is getting $14.25M no matter what, we can't do anything about that.

 

Right now we're looking at Surkamp/Snodgress/garbage as that second lefty, and if we want to upgrade that it'll at least cost $1-2M on the open market. JUST as a specialist.

 

Right now Carroll/Rienzo/garbage is probably the long man.

 

Danks is in the rotation.

 

At minimum, we're talking about 3 roster spots to fill at a combined pricetag of $15.25M or so after minimums go to in-house options. If we want to upgrade over the second lefty we're looking at something more like $16.25-17.25M for those same three spots.

 

Move Danks to the pen, have him be BOTH the second lefty AND the long man, while putting Rodon in the rotation. This costs 2 roster spots rather than 3, it costs $14.75M which is cheaper, and we'd likely be upgrading all three of those roles (Danks > Carroll/Surkamp/Garbage & Rodon > Danks).

 

This is actually an interesting idea in theory and I like it if they can't find a taker for Danks.

 

I think they will work tirelessly to trade Danks while taking on as little as possible this offseason, but he's virtually valueless at this point and in fact holding negative value. If they are unable to do so, I think they would defer to the veteran out of Spring Training because Rodon is "going to need some seasoning" where he'll make 3-5 starts, ensure his arm is stretched out, and Danks will be given a short audition. If/when Danks fails, they could easily move him into the bullpen in that exact role and insert Rodon into the rotation.

[caulfield12]

Danks walks too many to be a closer, and gives up way too many homers.

 

If you could convince me he could go out like Verlander and throw 95 MPH with movement in the bullpen, that would be one thing.

 

But we can only go by the evidence that he's pushing himself to the limit at 90-91 and there's almost no likelihood he could get up to the 93-95 MPH levels.

 

Once again....with the Verlander comparisons. As a starter, he's been getting hit hard on his fastball this year (not a surprise) and either his change-up or slider, something like that....the argument is that he can ditch two of his four pitches and just concentrate on throwing harder and not throwing a slider/change/curve, but just constantly honing one of those to pitch off the fastball.

 

Danks theoretically has the change-up, but he just doesn't have the fastball to pitch from behind in the count. And he leaves way too many balls up in the zone. It's just a bad combination for a reliever. And he hasn't been a strikeout pitcher or someone to miss a lot of bats (think Quintana) in terms of percentage of swings and misses.

 

 

[caulfield12]

This is actually an interesting idea in theory and I like it if they can't find a taker for Danks.

 

I think they will work tirelessly to trade Danks while taking on as little as possible this offseason, but he's virtually valueless at this point and in fact holding negative value. If they are unable to do so, I think they would defer to the veteran out of Spring Training because Rodon is "going to need some seasoning" where he'll make 3-5 starts, ensure his arm is stretched out, and Danks will be given a short audition. If/when Danks fails, they could easily move him into the bullpen in that exact role and insert Rodon into the rotation.

 

 

Who's the 5th starter in that situation?

 

Sale/Quintana/Noesi/Rodon/???

 

We're still one short. Bassitt?

[ILMOU]

^My last post was confusing, but my point is this:

 

We need 2 lefties in the pen, 5 pitchers in the rotation, and a long man no matter what.

 

Danks is getting $14.25M no matter what, we can't do anything about that.

 

Right now we're looking at Surkamp/Snodgress/garbage as that second lefty, and if we want to upgrade that it'll at least cost $1-2M on the open market. JUST as a specialist.

 

Right now Carroll/Rienzo/garbage is probably the long man.

 

Danks is in the rotation.

 

At minimum, we're talking about 3 roster spots to fill at a combined pricetag of $15.25M or so after minimums go to in-house options. If we want to upgrade over the second lefty we're looking at something more like $16.25-17.25M for those same three spots.

 

Move Danks to the pen, have him be BOTH the second lefty AND the long man, while putting Rodon in the rotation. This costs 2 roster spots rather than 3, it costs $14.75M which is cheaper, and we'd likely be upgrading all three of those roles (Danks > Carroll/Surkamp/Garbage & Rodon > Danks).

 

There's a possibility, though a tad early to call just yet, that the Hound can become an excellent longman/spot starter, and be one of the 5 RH in the pen. We'll see how he finishes the season/ST. But I also really like the Danks to the pen idea, if no takers can be found in the interim. Unfortunately, I suspect he'll be given the chance to start, at least early on next season, in order to improve trade possibilities/terms. That might even be the most prudent plan, even if we don't like it. Some pitchers will be getting hurt at the end of April-early May, perhaps Danks will start the season well.

Edited September 11, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[The Ultimate Champion]

Who's the 5th starter in that situation?

 

Sale/Quintana/Noesi/Rodon/???

 

We're still one short. Bassitt?

Whether it is Bassitt, a project or prospect we acquire or claim, whether it is a FA signing of name value or a Paulino type again (scrap heap vet) we can very safely assume Carroll isn't part of our rotation plans. And I think it's also fair to assume based on the Sox actions & things Hahn has said that we're not looking for a 4 or 5 lefty rotation at any point.

 

This makes me concerned that we're going to dick around with Rodon. I think our #1 priority right now should be developing our best young players and IMO you have to squint pretty hard to see Rodon in the pen or Charlotte as something positive in terms of development.... unless..... Rodon struggles in Spring, and maybe if he has some mechanical issues or something. But if he's throwing strikes, blowing MLB hitters away with all three of fastball, change and slider then we're going to look like cheap asses sending the guy to the minors for that arb clock stuff.

 

I'm already wondering if the non call-up had something to do with Borass dragging things out a bit and demanding the max we could give him. I don't want to play any stupid games with this kid. If he looks like he could be an ace and is MLB ready in ST then he needs to be in the rotation to open the season.

 

[Balta1701]

John Danks doesn't work as a bullpen lefty because he's one of the guys with reversed splits. He's a ROOGY more than he is a LOOGY. He gets righties out better than he gets lefties out. This is a function of his change up, it's more effective against righties than lefties and has been much of his career.

 

If you have John Danks in your bullpen, the ideal competitive bullpen would still have 2 other lefties in it. It doesn't help you with that. That's why I was thinking about the closer's spot for him...a place where you won't mind that he's a lefty and he might be able to use his change effectively.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Really think the best thing to do with Danks is to continue to start him(If they can't trade him in the winter). The longer you keep him the less you'd have to chip into a trade and the more you can potentially get back.

 

No one will agree with this, but I still think there's a chance he can be a quality starter. Not 14.5 million dollar good but mid season he'll be owed ~21M dollars and if the Sox pitch in half that I don't think they should have any problems trading him and might be able to get back a Nolan Sanburn type live arm in return.

 

 

[brian310]

Looking at Scherzer's numbers this season, I kinda want our rotation to look like this next season:

 

1. Sale

2. Scherzer

3. Quintana

4. Place holder for Rodon/Rodon

5. Noesi/other signing or someone else in organization?

 

If they can get Scherzer on a 6 year deal (his age 30 through 35 seasons), would you want him?

[caulfield12]

Looking at Scherzer's numbers this season, I kinda want our rotation to look like this next season:

 

1. Sale

2. Scherzer

3. Quintana

4. Place holder for Rodon/Rodon

5. Noesi/other signing or someone else in organization?

 

If they can get Scherzer on a 6 year deal (his age 30 through 35 seasons), would you want him?

 

 

6 years is going to cost a minimum of $160 million, as he already turned down $144 from the Tigers, and that was with no bidding/competition from 10-12 other teams who obviously would be interested in acquiring his services.

 

That's $26.67 million per season, AAV.

 

Just impossible to believe Hahn would be interested or JR would authorize that kind of expenditure on a pitcher approaching the second half of his career.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Peavy has been really good since being traded. Guys think that's just him playing in the NL or does he still have some life left?? I wouldn't mind bringing him back for a year or 2.

[LDF]

Peavy has been really good since being traded. Guys think that's just him playing in the NL or does he still have some life left?? I wouldn't mind bringing him back for a year or 2.

 

both, but I wouldn't mind to see what would be his salary request.

[Heads22]

If I knew we'd get the Sox version of Edwin Jackson, I'd be all over him. Maybe he works well with Coop, I don't know, but I think he could absolutely be part of a successful Sox rotation. Sale-Quintana-Jackson-Rodon-Noesi is youngish, but if Rodon is what we all think he is, then we're asking EJax to be our fourth starter.

[LDF]

If I knew we'd get the Sox version of Edwin Jackson, I'd be all over him. Maybe he works well with Coop, I don't know, but I think he could absolutely be part of a successful Sox rotation. Sale-Quintana-Jackson-Rodon-Noesi is youngish, but if Rodon is what we all think he is, then we're asking EJax to be our fourth starter.

 

hey heads how is it going.

 

re ejax, I think the sox needs a supply of sp just in case 1 of the sp gets hurts or produce like

felipe paulino. the sox still has erik johnson maybe making another run at starting.

[RockRaines]

Peavy has been really good since being traded. Guys think that's just him playing in the NL or does he still have some life left?? I wouldn't mind bringing him back for a year or 2.

Not going to happen from what I hear. Wants one last 2 year contract that is fairly large. Not a fix for the Sox unless you think they are contending next year and IMO he is a good #4

[2nd_city_saint787]

I've been pondering an "out there" idea that I wanna run by you guys to see whether I'm crazy or not.....

 

 

Adam Eaton has been really really good with runners on. He's hitting .344/.429/.446 with runners on and an even better .378/.458/.476 w/RISP....So with that said, and the Sox seemingly being high on Micah Johnson, who is also a LH leadoff type guy, am I crazy for wanting to see Micah-?-Eaton-Abreu at the top of the order??

 

Semien might be a nice #2 if they throw him out in LF or trade Lexi. Russell Martin, who has decent speed, would also be real nice.

[RockRaines]

I've been pondering an "out there" idea that I wanna run by you guys to see whether I'm crazy or not.....

 

 

Adam Eaton has been really really good with runners on. He's hitting .344/.429/.446 with runners on and an even better .378/.458/.476 w/RISP....So with that said, and the Sox seemingly being high on Micah Johnson, who is also a LH leadoff type guy, am I crazy for wanting to see Micah-?-Eaton-Abreu at the top of the order??

 

Semien might be a nice #2 if they throw him out in LF or trade Lexi. Russell Martin, who has decent speed, would also be real nice.

99.9999 percent chance Eaton never moves from lead off.

[LDF]

Not going to happen from what I hear. Wants one last 2 year contract that is fairly large. Not a fix for the Sox unless you think they are contending next year and IMO he is a good #4

 

what is your take on Cuban Tomas and can and will sox win the bidding.

[RockRaines]

what is your take on Cuban Tomas and can and will sox win the bidding.

Got zero info at the moment because I've been out of the loop ,but something I will dig into. The Sox have some money, the question is will it be worth it. I know from the mouth of the horse that they think FA bats this offseason are overpriced, especially VMart

[LDF]

Got zero info at the moment because I've been out of the loop ,but something I will dig into. The Sox have some money, the question is will it be worth it. I know from the mouth of the horse that they think FA bats this offseason are overpriced, especially VMart

 

there is also a Japanese pitcher that will get money thrown at him as well.