2015 Offseason

[caulfield12]

I don't think it's so much that the saber community is unconfident in their numbers but it's more along the lines of if they are over/undervaluing it and if they should include other information. Alex Gordon's UZR this year is off the charts. The controversy there lies in the idea that it's because he's been head and shoulders above his peers to this point, not that his defense has improved substantially from this year to last.

 

Either way, as has been said, if a person says substituting a 6 WAR player for a 2 WAR player adds 4 wins, it's an estimate and they should add 4 wins, but won't necessarily do so. The bottomline is it is an estimate and an average. No one has ever said it's perfectly accurate in that aspect, but that it should be fairly close.

 

 

 

The Twins' announcers, who've watched Plouffe all season at 3B, said it was basically ridiculous that he was rated in the Top 3-4 in terms of range.

 

They also said that they believe Dozier is MUCH better than the "average" 2B that he's being recorded as so far this season in UZR.

[brian310]

The Twins' announcers, who've watched Plouffe all season at 3B, said it was basically ridiculous that he was rated in the Top 3-4 in terms of range.

 

They also said that they believe Dozier is MUCH better than the "average" 2B that he's being recorded as so far this season in UZR.

 

That second part reminds me of Hawk on Beckham

[brian310]

Looks like LaRoche is likely gone from the Nats after this year and from comments he made, it sounds like he knows it. Zimmerman can no longer play third so unless the NL adapts the DH this off season he will be playing somewhere else. Could be a solid plan B if we don't sign Martinez (I don't think we will sign V-Mart personally).

[Balta1701]

Looks like LaRoche is likely gone from the Nats after this year and from comments he made, it sounds like he knows it. Zimmerman can no longer play third so unless the NL adapts the DH this off season he will be playing somewhere else. Could be a solid plan B if we don't sign Martinez (I don't think we will sign V-Mart personally).

Wouldn't the simple solution to that problem be to move Zim to 1b?

[daggins]

Wouldn't the simple solution to that problem be to move Zim to 1b?

 

That's what he is saying. Zimmermann -> 1B, Laroche out.

[southsider2k5]

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 46s

 

In talking to Avi today about his Tigers days and former teammates, he mentioned that Victor Martinez likes Chicago. But Avi also said..

that he totally understands it's a business so likes might not matter.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Well see. I'd like to get him.

[witesoxfan]

Well see. I'd like to get him.

 

There is a ton of downside to bringing him in. It's been discussed here ad nauseum, but I do not believe it would be a good move for the Sox.

[Rowand44]

There is a ton of downside to bringing him in. It's been discussed here ad nauseum, but I do not believe it would be a good move for the Sox.

All depends on the price tag. Most importantly...the years.

[2nd_city_saint787]

All depends on the price tag. Most importantly...the years.

 

Ya, if they can get him on a 2 year contract with some options, it's a no brainer to me. Money I'm not too concerned about because I think if they can land him it's gonna be "All in part deux" and we'll see the payroll back up over 100M.

 

I'm really hoping that the Tigers feel the need to DH Miggy so they don't even give Victor a QO. I'd give up a 2R pick in a heart beat but it'd be nice to keep it.

Edited September 22, 2014 by scs787

[Vance Law]

All depends on the price tag. Most importantly...the years.

 

Right. Thing is, where could he actually wind up?

 

There are 14 AL teams other than the Sox.

 

Not Houston (Carter). Not Boston (Ortiz). Not Toronto (Lind). Not Yankees (Beltran). Not Anaheim (Hamilton/Pujols). I can't see Minn, KC, Tampa, or Oakland spending the money

 

Detroit

Texas

Seattle

Baltimore

Cleveland

 

Obviously things can go a lot of different ways with free agents re-signing or not, but looking at teams' payroll and competitiveness situations I'd put the most likely landing spots as Detroit and Seattle. I don't think anyone offers 4 years.

 

For the Sox the upside is that you're potentially making the Tigers worse while making your own team better (think Ozzie Guillen pushing Thome to Minnesota). The downside, obviously is, Vmart's age and the price tag.

[southsider2k5]

If Martinez leaves Detroit, I think Seattle is the top desination for making sense and wanting to win now.

[brian310]

Right. Thing is, where could he actually wind up?

 

There are 14 AL teams other than the Sox.

 

Not Houston (Carter). Not Boston (Ortiz). Not Toronto (Lind). Not Yankees (Beltran). Not Anaheim (Hamilton/Pujols). I can't see Minn, KC, Tampa, or Oakland spending the money

 

Detroit

Texas

Seattle

Baltimore

Cleveland

 

Obviously things can go a lot of different ways with free agents re-signing or not, but looking at teams' payroll and competitiveness situations I'd put the most likely landing spots as Detroit and Seattle. I don't think anyone offers 4 years.

 

For the Sox the upside is that you're potentially making the Tigers worse while making your own team better (think Ozzie Guillen pushing Thome to Minnesota). The downside, obviously is, Vmart's age and the price tag.

 

I don't see Cleveland paying for him either. I think it'll be a 5 team race with the teams you mentioned and us (unless an NL team wants him to play first of course).

[caulfield12]

Aoki, Shields, Butler or V-Mart.

 

The more I've been watching Aoki recently, the more I like him. He has an unorthodox approach, has cut down his K rate dramatically as he dealt with the transition from NL to AL....at the plate, the defense has no idea where to play him as he hits to all fields equally well, he's just a nice/solid glue or complimentary player that does all the little things right, another version of Iguchi. Statistically, he's been on fire the last month or so, so my having watched him a lot in the middle of a hot streak is skewing my viewpoint a bit, but he's just been the most dangerous hitter for the Royals.

 

At any rate, that would be quite a nice off-season, and weaken two division foes. The problem is that I just don't see V-Mart until/unless we're in win now/all in mode, and that's not really setting up for 2015 without also adding another starter, two pieces in the bullpen (at least) and fixing the LF situation.

 

Another solution is simply to sign Aoki and Shields, and DH Viciedo. Of course, if you cut Viciedo's $5ish million, that gives you a lot more flexibility to sign Martinez.

 

(Unfortunately, the Martinez we could really use is JD Martinez, in terms of price range).

 

 

Edited September 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

How many games would Martinez play in the field next year if the Sox signed him? I'm on board with getting him but we still need to trade for one more good bat that plays in the field IMO. Victor + new guy and we've got a deep lineup.

[caulfield12]

I don't see Cleveland paying for him either. I think it'll be a 5 team race with the teams you mentioned and us (unless an NL team wants him to play first of course).

 

 

Which means Kendrys Morales, with a full offseason and spring training, becomes one of the five or so likeliest options for the Sox.

 

I'd actually rather have Billy Butler, despite his RHedness.

[caulfield12]

How many games would Martinez play in the field next year if the Sox signed him? I'm on board with getting him but we still need to trade for one more good bat that plays in the field IMO. Victor + new guy and we've got a deep lineup.

 

 

He could play 10-25 games at 1B, being the primary back-up for Abreu.

 

You don't want him catching.

 

Emergency 3B, but you don't want to see that happen, either.

Edited September 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[LDF]

Aoki, Shields, Butler or V-Mart.

 

The more I've been watching Aoki recently, the more I like him. He has an unorthodox approach, has cut down his K rate dramatically as he dealt with the transition from NL to AL....at the plate, the defense has no idea where to play him as he hits to all fields equally well, he's just a nice/solid glue or complimentary player that does all the little things right, another version of Iguchi. Statistically, he's been on fire the last month or so, so my having watched him a lot in the middle of a hot streak is skewing my viewpoint a bit, but he's just been the most dangerous hitter for the Royals.

 

At any rate, that would be quite a nice off-season, and weaken two division foes. The problem is that I just don't see V-Mart until/unless we're in win now/all in mode, and that's not really setting up for 2015 without also adding another starter, two pieces in the bullpen (at least) and fixing the LF situation.

 

Another solution is simply to sign Aoki and Shields, and DH Viciedo. Of course, if you cut Viciedo's $5ish million, that gives you a lot more flexibility to sign Martinez.

 

(Unfortunately, the Martinez we could really use is JD Martinez, in terms of price range).

 

I been mentioning him for a while. I do not trust eaton on being healthy and the sox need a good

leadoff players.

 

now don't get me wrong, as a player I really like eaton.

[Balta1701]

I been mentioning him for a while. I do not trust eaton on being healthy and the sox need a good

leadoff players.

 

now don't get me wrong, as a player I really like eaton.

Worth noting...Micah Johnson also profiles as a potential leadoff hitter and has a good chance of arriving next year.

 

That said, Micah may have some injury issues too.

[LDF]

Worth noting...Micah Johnson also profiles as a potential leadoff hitter and has a good chance of arriving next year.

 

That said, Micah may have some injury issues too.

 

micah is a nice option but I was looking for someone who is already establish.

 

 

btw on the different note, Balta by any chance do you know which post it was that

we were discussing Danks and his contract???

[caulfield12]

Worth noting...Micah Johnson also profiles as a potential leadoff hitter and has a good chance of arriving next year.

 

That said, Micah may have some injury issues too.

 

Johnson has to be 100% with his hamstrings, AND he needs at least 2-3 months in Charlotte still.

 

Let's not rush him a bit like we did with Semien.

[Balta1701]

Johnson has to be 100% with his hamstrings, AND he needs at least 2-3 months in Charlotte still.

 

Let's not rush him a bit like we did with Semien.

I agree on this...he should get time in Charlotte next year, but the combination of Eaton and Johnson and Semien and the other guys we have makes it seem like Aoki as a weak hitting RF is a pretty poor fit.

[greg775]

Aoki, Shields, Butler or V-Mart.

 

The more I've been watching Aoki recently, the more I like him. He has an unorthodox approach, has cut down his K rate dramatically as he dealt with the transition from NL to AL....at the plate, the defense has no idea where to play him as he hits to all fields equally well, he's just a nice/solid glue or complimentary player that does all the little things right, another version of Iguchi. Statistically, he's been on fire the last month or so, so my having watched him a lot in the middle of a hot streak is skewing my viewpoint a bit, but he's just been the most dangerous hitter for the Royals.

 

At any rate, that would be quite a nice off-season, and weaken two division foes. The problem is that I just don't see V-Mart until/unless we're in win now/all in mode, and that's not really setting up for 2015 without also adding another starter, two pieces in the bullpen (at least) and fixing the LF situation.

 

Another solution is simply to sign Aoki and Shields, and DH Viciedo. Of course, if you cut Viciedo's $5ish million, that gives you a lot more flexibility to sign Martinez.

 

(Unfortunately, the Martinez we could really use is JD Martinez, in terms of price range).

 

My following responses are made with the caveat I don't care about Jerry's pocketbook, just the fact if the Sox sign a player to a multi year deal and he is a bust, the fact we can't get rid of him will annoy me to no end.

Aoki: No. Please God no. Mr Slappy will be so hated on this board all season.

Shields: No, because it'll take a 5-6 year deal and there's a huge risk he could flop at any time. Now if he'd go for 2-3 years, sure. He seems awfully durable and is still pretty good.

Butler: If he is willing to admit he's a huge question mark and take a 2-3 year Keppinger type deal, fine. Playing KC 19 times means he'd get 76 at bats against the Royals which could help the batting average and production since he'd want to beat his old team's ass.

V-Mart: Not gonna happen but would be a nice signee for 1-3 years. Again, somebody will probably give him a 5-6 year deal and the Adam Dunn deal has made those unpopular on the south side.

 

I was reading Toronto put Buehrle on waivers this season. How bout a trade where they pay 3/4 of his contract and we send them a minor league stiff and bring back Mark? Then we could move one of the other lefties to the bullpen. Or Rodon could start his career in the bullpen for a year.

Edited September 23, 2014 by greg775

[Vance Law]

He could play 10-25 games at 1B, being the primary back-up for Abreu.

 

You don't want him catching.

 

Emergency 3B, but you don't want to see that happen, either.

He has started 33 games at first this year.

[LDF]

My following responses are made with the caveat I don't care about Jerry's pocketbook, just the fact if the Sox sign a player to a multi year deal and he is a bust, the fact we can't get rid of him will annoy me to no end.

Aoki: No. Please God no. Mr Slappy will be so hated on this board all season.

Shields: No, because it'll take a 5-6 year deal and there's a huge risk he could flop at any time. Now if he'd go for 2-3 years, sure. He seems awfully durable and is still pretty good.

Butler: If he is willing to admit he's a huge question mark and take a 2-3 year Keppinger type deal, fine. Playing KC 19 times means he'd get 76 at bats against the Royals which could help the batting average and production since he'd want to beat his old team's ass.

V-Mart: Not gonna happen but would be a nice signee for 1-3 years. Again, somebody will probably give him a 5-6 year deal and the Adam Dunn deal has made those unpopular on the south side.

 

I was reading Toronto put Buehrle on waivers this season. How bout a trade where they pay 3/4 of his contract and we send them a minor league stiff and bring back Mark? Then we could move one of the other lefties to the bullpen. Or Rodon could start his career in the bullpen for a year.

 

I understand what you are saying, but let me ask this question, who will be the leadoff players

if eaton misses games next yr.