The Case for Joe Mauer's HOF Induction

[Buster Posey]

A friend asked me earlier this week if I thought Joe Mauer belongs in the Hall of Fame. I think he does, but I wanted to see what the rest of you think. Mauer's lifetime numbers aren't especially impressive aside from his batting average and OBP, but if one looks at his 162-game averages, the case for his HOF induction becomes much stronger. That he's won multiple Silver Slugger Awards and Gold Gloves--as well as an MVP--also helps his argument.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

[Dick Allen]

A friend asked me earlier this week if I thought Joe Mauer belongs in the Hall of Fame. I think he does, but I wanted to see what the rest of you think. Mauer's lifetime numbers aren't especially impressive aside from his batting average and OBP, but if one looks at his 162-game averages, the case for his HOF induction becomes much stronger. That he's won multiple Silver Slugger Awards and Gold Gloves--as well as an MVP--also helps his argument.

 

Thoughts?

If he is done as a catcher and hits like he has been hitting this year the rest of his career, no way. He looked surefire a couple of years ago.

[ptatc]

A friend asked me earlier this week if I thought Joe Mauer belongs in the Hall of Fame. I think he does, but I wanted to see what the rest of you think. Mauer's lifetime numbers aren't especially impressive aside from his batting average and OBP, but if one looks at his 162-game averages, the case for his HOF induction becomes much stronger. That he's won multiple Silver Slugger Awards and Gold Gloves--as well as an MVP--also helps his argument.

 

Thoughts?

I don't think he's done it long enough yet. He seems to be tailing off as well. His OPS is slightly better than Konerko while konerko did it over 7-8 more years. Everyone really agrees that PK doesn't belong there.

Edited September 5, 2014 by ptatc

[Balta1701]

162 game averages look better for him because he missed a lot of time right?

 

Even if you don't believe the small differences in numbers, career Wins Above Replacement gives a good way of comparing relatively how much damage a guy has done over his career. Right now, Mauer is at about 45 WAR regardless of where we look. That's about at the level of guys like Mark Grace, that's behind David Ortiz, etc. For a hall of famer I want to see a guy get a lot more than that, to clearly stand out.

 

At the very least for Mauer based on those numbers we need to start thinking about him putting up 3 more All-Star level seasons, and that might be hard as a 1b since he'll have to hit more as a catcher to get past guys like Abreu who tear it up at that position.

 

At around 60 WAR, you start getting into guys like Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, Chase Utley who have had long enough careers that you can legitimately start thinking about them being borderline. Notably, I don't think those guys are hall of famers, they're hall of very good. Once you start getting past 60, then you can start really making the case that a guy did a lot of damage for a very long time, really start going into their numbers and ask "is this guy a hall of famer".

 

Again, don't focus on the exact numbers, use that as a scale. Mauer has put up 5 WAR seasons in his career but that's as a catcher. For him to do that as a 1b, he needs to do the kind of damage Jose Abreu has done, and this year he's been no where near that. Does he have a 3-4 year burst like that in him in his early 30's? I'd say I'm skeptical.

 

He has a long way to go. His peak wasn't long enough or extreme enough to carry him and his body seems to be wearing down. If he'd kept up the 2009 form for a couple years that could have done it, but he didn't. He had one incredible year, a series of very good years, but we don't put guys in the Hall of Fame for being very good, we put them in there for being great.

[ptatc]

162 game averages look better for him because he missed a lot of time right?

 

Even if you don't believe the small differences in numbers, career Wins Above Replacement gives a good way of comparing relatively how much damage a guy has done over his career. Right now, Mauer is at about 45 WAR regardless of where we look. That's about at the level of guys like Mark Grace, that's behind David Ortiz, etc. For a hall of famer I want to see a guy get a lot more than that, to clearly stand out.

 

At the very least for Mauer based on those numbers we need to start thinking about him putting up 3 more All-Star level seasons, and that might be hard as a 1b since he'll have to hit more as a catcher to get past guys like Abreu who tear it up at that position.

 

At around 60 WAR, you start getting into guys like Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, Chase Utley who have had long enough careers that you can legitimately start thinking about them being borderline. Notably, I don't think those guys are hall of famers, they're hall of very good. Once you start getting past 60, then you can start really making the case that a guy did a lot of damage for a very long time, really start going into their numbers and ask "is this guy a hall of famer".

 

Again, don't focus on the exact numbers, use that as a scale. Mauer has put up 5 WAR seasons in his career but that's as a catcher. For him to do that as a 1b, he needs to do the kind of damage Jose Abreu has done, and this year he's been no where near that. Does he have a 3-4 year burst like that in him in his early 30's? I'd say I'm skeptical.

 

He has a long way to go. His peak wasn't long enough or extreme enough to carry him and his body seems to be wearing down. If he'd kept up the 2009 form for a couple years that could have done it, but he didn't. He had one incredible year, a series of very good years, but we don't put guys in the Hall of Fame for being very good, we put them in there for being great.

It's sad to think that a guy having the season like Abreu is only 5 games better than a replacement player let alone an average player. It really shows that one player really doesn't make much difference in baseball.

[southsider2k5]

I am not even close to convinced right now. He needs about five more really big years.

[Buster Posey]

I don't think he's done it long enough yet. He seems to be tailing off as well. His OPS is slightly better than Konerko while konerko did it over 7-8 more years. Everyone really agrees that PK doesn't belong there.

 

I've a problem with the Konerko comparison, as he has played most of his career at 1B--a position where power and run production are expected. Mauer was a catcher until this season and shouldn't be judged by how he compares to people who played other positions.

 

[Balta1701]

I've a problem with the Konerko comparison, as he has played most of his career at 1B--a position where power and run production are expected. Mauer was a catcher until this season and shouldn't be judged by how he compares to people who played other positions.

How you weight between these positions is why I immediately defaulted to WAR. For Konerko to get there he had to have several more incredible years and probably push a stat like >500 HR. He's not going to get there. He's also only at 25 fWAR for his careerr thanks to defense and base running. That's why you'd have to look at >500 HR for Konerko to qualify himself.

 

 

 

Just to note, Mauer is only at 1500 hits in his career so far.

[Buster Posey]

Just to note, Mauer is only at 1500 hits in his career so far.

 

Correct, which is why I noted that his overall numbers aren't particularly impressive; however, he plays in the American League and has the opportunity to DH, which may help him extend his career. I'm not sure how to explain his drop-off this season. His career splits show that his batting average is lower (.286) when he plays 1B. He's hit .311 for his career as a DH.

 

[Balta1701]

Correct, which is why I noted that his overall numbers aren't particularly impressive; however, he plays in the American League and has the opportunity to DH, which may help him extend his career. I'm not sure how to explain his drop-off this season. His career splits show that his batting average is lower (.286) when he plays 1B. He's hit .311 for his career as a DH.

There's a path that could get him there, but it involves him having a decade that is a hall of fame decade in the next 10 years or so. He's got a decent start but he'd have to keep that rate up for the 2nd half of his career and you just don't expect that, especially for guys who have had injury issues in their first career half and now are switching to positions where your offensive output has to be higher to be above average.

 

He won't get into the HOF if he's an average 1b/DH for the next 6-7 years. He has to be really good at it.

[LittleHurt05]

It's sad to think that a guy having the season like Abreu is only 5 games better than a replacement player let alone an average player. It really shows that one player really doesn't make much difference in baseball.

 

Look at Mike Trout's past 2 seasons. Between his hitting, baserunning, and defense, he was putting up legendary Hall of Fame type seasons and his team didn't make the playoffs either year. They even finished under .500 in 2013.

[Jake]

Part of the reason Abreu might seem to be better is that he has replaced nearly 2 wins below replacement production, making the swing rather large

[southsider2k5]

Mauer has been hot garbage since moving out of the dome. Unless he finds the Fountain of Youth, he is nothing now.

[Dick Allen]

Mauer has been hot garbage since moving out of the dome. Unless he finds the Fountain of Youth, he is nothing now.

I wouldn't say that. In the 3 seasons he has been healthy, he has hit at least .319 with a .400 OBP and an .860 OPS. Very few homers though, and obviously he is banged up again and playing 1B, and had a drop off from those numbers this year.

[farmteam]

I wouldn't say that. In the 3 seasons he has been healthy, he has hit at least .319 with a .400 OBP and an .860 OPS. Very few homers though, and obviously he is banged up again and playing 1B, and had a drop off from those numbers this year.

Power's never's been his game, which is fine when he hit as many gaps as he did with as high as an average as he did. I do think Mauer has at least 3-4 more seasons of .315/10/75 in him...but that's not getting him in the HOF.

[Jerksticks]

What's not being said for his case is that he was arguably the best hitter we've seen in a while for a stretch. We were looking at possibly the greatest catcher of all time. I'm glad for the sox it didn't work out but I'm sad too because that's one of the sweetest swings I've ever seen...I feel like he batted .600 on any ball thrown outer half. HOF probably not likely anymore.

Edited September 9, 2014 by Jerksticks

[WilliamTell]

As a 1st baseman, Mauer is somewhat similar to Will Clark. Higher average but lower power. Will Clark was good, but not Hall of Fame material. Mauer as a 1st baseman just isn't as valuable compared to as a catcher. Honestly I agree with what Hawk said not too long ago about Mauer probably needing a change of scenery. But Minnesota probably won't do it.

[Buster Posey]

As a 1st baseman, Mauer is somewhat similar to Will Clark. Higher average but lower power. Will Clark was good, but not Hall of Fame material. Mauer as a 1st baseman just isn't as valuable compared to as a catcher. Honestly I agree with what Hawk said not too long ago about Mauer probably needing a change of scenery. But Minnesota probably won't do it.

 

Will Clark? He had seasons of 35, 29, 29, 23, 23 and 21 home runs, and also had multiple seasons with more than 100 RBI (and led the National League in 1988). His career OPS was .880. Mark Grace is a better comparison for Mauer than Clark.