2014-2015 MLB off season player movement and rumors thread

[caulfield12]

From Chronicle Staff Writer Susan Slusser

 

According @MLBDailyRumors, the A’s have signed DH-first baseman Billy Butler to a three-year, $30 million deal. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal confirmed that the A’s were in talks with Butler, and I am told by team sources that the sides are “engaged.” There has not been any confirmation of a deal yet.

 

sfgate.com/sports

 

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11900658...kland-athletics

 

Edited November 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[thxfrthmmrs]

Pretty much guarantees LaRoche will get $13 mil+ AAV

Edited November 19, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[BigHurt3515]

That is a LOT of money for Billy Butler.

 

This day and age everyone is going to be getting more then we think they deserve. Just the nature of free agency and the MLB

[caulfield12]

Pretty much guarantees LaRoche will get $13 mil+ AAV

 

 

Not sure about that....Butler is 29, and other than Rasmus and Sandoval, there aren't many free agents on the right side of 30.

 

Of course, LaRoche can play 1B well, so he has THAT advantage, but you'd have to swallow hard to guarantee three years and $39 million to what amounts to a declining platoon 1B.

 

(And the problem with this line of thinking is that we're probably going to use him as a DH even though he's a better defender than Abreu...we all know that he's not going to be forced to sit like Frank Thomas at this point in his development).

 

We've started to see so many players "lose it" in their mid 30's that it's becoming increasingly risky to sign anyone over 31 or 32. For every Torii Hunter who keeps on trucking along, there are 10-15 counter-examples.

Edited November 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[thxfrthmmrs]

Not sure about that....Butler is 29, and other than Rasmus and Sandoval, there aren't many free agents on the right side of 30.

 

Of course, LaRoche can play 1B well, so he has THAT advantage, but you'd have to swallow hard to guarantee three years and $39 million to what amounts to a declining platoon 1B.

 

(And the problem with this line of thinking is that we're probably going to use him as a DH even though he's a better defender than Abreu...we all know that he's not going to be forced to sit like Frank Thomas at this point in his development).

 

We've started to see so many players "lose it" in their mid 30's that it's becoming increasingly risky to sign anyone over 31 or 32. For every Torii Hunter who keeps on trucking along, there are 10-15 counter-examples.

 

The consensus is LaRoche is a better overall player than Butler and is a lefty bat. I will take him for a 2 year deal over 3 years for Butler. I think he will end up getting 2/$26 mil

[thxfrthmmrs]

This day and age everyone is going to be getting more then we think they deserve. Just the nature of free agency and the MLB

 

We are talking about a sport where a $100 million payroll puts you at the bottom half of the spending list, and many young players are paid 1/20th of their worth in open market. There are plenty of money to spend around the league, that's why I am not too caught up by the Zach Duke deal.

[BigHurt3515]

We are talking about a sport where a $100 million payroll puts you at the bottom half of the spending list, and many young players are paid 1/20th of their worth in open market. There are plenty of money to spend around the league, that's why I am not too caught up by the Zach Duke deal.

 

Everyone is overpaid now. If you aren't overpaying you aren't getting players. Better be damn good in the draft/International signings if you don't want to spend the money to sign the guys to help you win

[TheTruth05]

Jim Bowden ‏@JimBowden_ESPN 4m4 minutes ago

 

#Cardinals have joined the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves in pursuit of Jon Lester according to a club source which makes sense after Miller trade

 

Potential Cards + Lester + Cubs Saltyness= Awesome.

[LDF]

 

this morning, the Red Sox will make a formal offer to Lester.

 

dang it. he was my #1 wish list signing.

[Kyyle23]

this morning, the Red Sox will make a formal offer to Lester.

 

dang it. he was my #1 wish list signing.

 

What? You really thought the White Sox were going to make a play on Lester?

[SoxFan562004]

this morning, the Red Sox will make a formal offer to Lester.

 

dang it. he was my #1 wish list signing.

In a perfect world I guess, but I never really saw it as a fit for the Sox at this point, offense and bullpen needs money poured into it.

 

Especially now with the teams involved, Lester is going to cash in big time.... unless you believe Cubs fans that he'll take the veterans minimum to play there and he'll bring cloned versions of prime Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays with him.

[Balta1701]

What? You really thought the White Sox were going to make a play on Lester?

ALL. THE. LEFTIES.

[LDF]

 

this was my wish list. it may not reflect with how the sox brass is thinking.

 

I was looking at the quality of the pitchers regardless of left or right hand

throwing. he has a track record of success, is a winner that is what the sox need.

[LDF]

ALL. THE. LEFTIES.

 

jeeze.... I am a complete idiot. ^^^^^^

 

now I understand what you are saying, look at the picture.

 

[Harry Chappas]

In a perfect world I guess, but I never really saw it as a fit for the Sox at this point, offense and bullpen needs money poured into it.

 

Especially now with the teams involved, Lester is going to cash in big time.... unless you believe Cubs fans that he'll take the veterans minimum to play there and he'll bring cloned versions of prime Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays with him.

 

The already have the cloned Mantle and Mays

[southsider2k5]

Seeing the year mentioned, makes it look even crazier.

 

MLBRosterMoves ‏@MLBRosterMoves 11m11 minutes ago

 

The @Marlins sign OF @Giancarlo818 to a 13-year contract, through the 2027 season, with a club option for 2028.

[Chisoxfn]

Potential Cards + Lester + Cubs Saltyness= Awesome.

I can't see the Cards going 7 years big money on Lester. It is the opposite of everything they do. I could see them going 3-4 with a lot of AAV but that is it and I can't see Lester taking that. Butler at 10M per year purely depends on how much you think last year was an abberation. At 10M and over 3 years it doesn't cripple you. I would have thought a good deal would have been 3 yr 24M.

[chw42]

Billy Butler's going to Oakland for 3 and $30 million.

[ptatc]

Everyone is overpaid now. If you aren't overpaying you aren't getting players. Better be damn good in the draft/International signings if you don't want to spend the money to sign the guys to help you win

Everyone says this every year.

[witesoxfan]

Everyone says this every year.

 

If a fast food restaurant - say Crazy George's - was willing to pay people $30 an hour to put out the best fast food in the area while taking home microscopic profit margins, while the rest of the fast food restaurants - say "Tampa Tacos" - gave the typical $10 an hour to take home bigger profits while putting out a lesser quality product, I doubt people would say "those people are Crazy George's are way overpaid."

 

Economic theory says no one is ever overpaid and that people will only ever be underpaid. Someone/Something may be paid/may cost more than you were willing to spend, but someone out there is willing to spend that amount for that service/product at that price, and thus it is valued properly.

 

The problem never lies in that. The problem lies in our inability to properly determine the depreciation of that service over time. A lot of times these services depreciate way faster than we realize they will, even after time and time again we see it do the same thing, partly because we've seen it work previously (both the service and extending the life of the service) and because the known is better than the unknown until it's not or the unknown becomes known.

[southsider2k5]

If a fast food restaurant - say Crazy George's - was willing to pay people $30 an hour to put out the best fast food in the area while taking home microscopic profit margins, while the rest of the fast food restaurants - say "Tampa Tacos" - gave the typical $10 an hour to take home bigger profits while putting out a lesser quality product, I doubt people would say "those people are Crazy George's are way overpaid."

 

Economic theory says no one is ever overpaid and that people will only ever be underpaid. Someone/Something may be paid/may cost more than you were willing to spend, but someone out there is willing to spend that amount for that service/product at that price, and thus it is valued properly.

 

The problem never lies in that. The problem lies in our inability to properly determine the depreciation of that service over time. A lot of times these services depreciate way faster than we realize they will, even after time and time again we see it do the same thing, partly because we've seen it work previously (both the service and extending the life of the service) and because the known is better than the unknown until it's not or the unknown becomes known.

 

We hear that other people are overpaid all of the time. It isn't just a sports thing. CEO's, actors, musicians, etc.

[LittleHurt05]

If a fast food restaurant - say Crazy George's - was willing to pay people $30 an hour to put out the best fast food in the area while taking home microscopic profit margins, while the rest of the fast food restaurants - say "Tampa Tacos" - gave the typical $10 an hour to take home bigger profits while putting out a lesser quality product, I doubt people would say "those people are Crazy George's are way overpaid."

 

Economic theory says no one is ever overpaid and that people will only ever be underpaid. Someone/Something may be paid/may cost more than you were willing to spend, but someone out there is willing to spend that amount for that service/product at that price, and thus it is valued properly.

 

The problem never lies in that. The problem lies in our inability to properly determine the depreciation of that service over time. A lot of times these services depreciate way faster than we realize they will, even after time and time again we see it do the same thing, partly because we've seen it work previously (both the service and extending the life of the service) and because the known is better than the unknown until it's not or the unknown becomes known.

 

Nice analogy, but I slightly disagree with the bolded. I don't think it's necessarily an inability to properly determine depreciation, I think it's an ability to ignore future depreciation for the sake of success today.

 

The consensus seemed to be that Russell Martin was good for a 4-year contract. Why did Toronto give him a 5-year deal? It's not simply because they figured he will still be good in the 5th year, it's because they need him now and that's what it took to get him onboard.

[southsider2k5]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 2m2 minutes ago

 

Billy Beane says he plans on Jeff Samardzija being ace of #Athletics staff next year

[Dick Allen]

Nice analogy, but I slightly disagree with the bolded. I don't think it's necessarily an inability to properly determine depreciation, I think it's an ability to ignore future depreciation for the sake of success today.

 

The consensus seemed to be that Russell Martin was good for a 4-year contract. Why did Toronto give him a 5-year deal? It's not simply because they figured he will still be good in the 5th year, it's because they need him now and that's what it took to get him onboard.

The thing is no team has ever gone bankrupt. One could argue the only thing these bad long term contracts have done, is limited a few teams from shelling out more of them.

 

If the Marlins give the biggest contract in sports, you know one thing, these teams are swimming in cash. So the question is who do you want to pocket it, past their prime players or owners ? Might as well be players, they can at least maybe help your team win.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

We hear that other people are overpaid all of the time. It isn't just a sports thing. CEO's, actors, musicians, etc.

 

CEOs, I think, are a little different scenario, but if they are receiving a huge amount of money, then they are still the active working head for a huge, huge company. That's a lot of responsibility and involves swinging a very big stick.

 

I definitely don't think actors or musicians are overpaid. I think the amount of money they may get is a ridiculously large amount, which is a key difference, but I don't say "they shouldn't be making that much."

 

Nice analogy, but I slightly disagree with the bolded. I don't think it's necessarily an inability to properly determine depreciation, I think it's an ability to ignore future depreciation for the sake of success today.

 

The consensus seemed to be that Russell Martin was good for a 4-year contract. Why did Toronto give him a 5-year deal? It's not simply because they figured he will still be good in the 5th year, it's because they need him now and that's what it took to get him onboard.

 

I think you're right in that it's not always the case, but there are some cases where it is true. I think the Sox re-signed Danks to a 5 year deal because they believed he'd be good for the entire 5 year deal, not to just reap the rewards of the initial couple seasons. That definitely played a part, but it wasn't all inclusive one way or another.

 

On the free agent market, I think you will typically see what you referenced.

 

Ultimately, it would be a case by case basis and those two outcomes (or others) aren't mutually exclusive by any means either.

 

With Giancarlo Stanton, I think the Marlins are thinking he's going to be good all 13 or 14 years he's ultimately under contract, but they also want to reap the rewards initially as well, plus this is going to make you trust them again, if just for a little bit.

 

I think the way the Marlins have set that contract up is absolutely brilliant.