Addison Reed trade from DBacks' perspective

[SCCWS]

Davidson has more up-side, even now.

He'll 24 next year and will have a chance to make the majors still.

 

Reed will be another aging reliever that has had marginal major league success.

 

 

Must be an AZ fan. Reed is 25 years old. That is not aging. He is younger than Nate Jones.

[Brian]

Yikes, Reed has given up 2 ER in 3 straight games. His ERA was respectable before that.

 

He's only pitches 57.1 innings this year. That seems oddly low for a closer.

[ptatc]

I'm all for selling high on closers, especially with a season coming up where we were expected to be down and rebuild a bit.

That's true as we saw this year, they are easy to come by.

[LittleHurt05]

Then why were the stats used in the article? The reporter used them with confidence.

 

 

But Zona willingly made the trade. Hmmm... do they know more than Buddy Bell?

 

 

You like this trade? This is a results business. We gave up a strong closer candidate (he figured to be mighty comfortable in the role again this year on the South Side) for a guy who does not look like a prime prospect anymore. Maybe he'll be great. Did the Dbacks figure he was a strong candidate to be a bust?

 

I happen to think a GM, if he is doing his job, at least has a closer in waiting if he trades a decent closer. I know, I know ... Nate Jones.

 

The GM that willingly made the trade was fired two weeks ago.

[southsider2k5]

Then why were the stats used in the article? The reporter used them with confidence.

 

 

But Zona willingly made the trade. Hmmm... do they know more than Buddy Bell?

 

 

You like this trade? This is a results business. We gave up a strong closer candidate (he figured to be mighty comfortable in the role again this year on the South Side) for a guy who does not look like a prime prospect anymore. Maybe he'll be great. Did the Dbacks figure he was a strong candidate to be a bust?

 

I happen to think a GM, if he is doing his job, at least has a closer in waiting if he trades a decent closer. I know, I know ... Nate Jones.

 

I know you won't listen, but you give up a closer for a potential 30 homer 3B with six years of control, every.single.day.of.the.week.

[hogan873]

I know you won't listen, but you give up a closer for a potential 30 homer 3B with six years of control, every.single.day.of.the.week.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I know you won't listen, but you give up a closer for a potential 30 homer 3B with six years of control, every.single.day.of.the.week.

 

 

Great post. Even if Davidson never turns into anything it's still a good trade.

[Eminor3rd]

Then why were the stats used in the article? The reporter used them with confidence.

 

 

But Zona willingly made the trade. Hmmm... do they know more than Buddy Bell?

 

 

You like this trade? This is a results business. We gave up a strong closer candidate (he figured to be mighty comfortable in the role again this year on the South Side) for a guy who does not look like a prime prospect anymore. Maybe he'll be great. Did the Dbacks figure he was a strong candidate to be a bust?

 

I happen to think a GM, if he is doing his job, at least has a closer in waiting if he trades a decent closer. I know, I know ... Nate Jones.

 

You continue to operate from the perspective that it is KNOWABLE how players will pan out, and if a GM is successful, it's because they have a crystal ball. This is completely delusional.

[Dick Allen]

The GM that willingly made the trade was fired two weeks ago.

He apparently pegged Davidson's reality better than anyone else.

 

I really don't understand White Sox fans fascination with busted prospects. KW trades a slew of busts, yet he ruined farm system by trading everyone away.

 

Matt Davidson hits .199 in his second season in AAA, with 165 strikeouts and poor defense, and he is still considered a future piece to the puzzle just because he made a top 100 list. There are a lot of names on the top 100 lists who eventually show you they really didn't belong.

 

The reality is the White Sox got at least as much for 2 months of Gordon Beckham and Alejandro De Aza and one month of Adam Dunn, as they did for Addison Reed. Addison Reed in reality, was given away. If you want to say the trade made sense at the time fine, because you were sold a line that Davidson was a future middle of the order bat who would be fine at 3B..but with hindsight, it was awful, and White Sox scouts have to be better than this. Matt Davidson cannot play.

Edited September 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

He apparently pegged Davidson's reality better than anyone else.

 

I really don't understand White Sox fans fascination with busted prospects. KW trades a slew of busts, yet he ruined farm system by trading everyone one away.

 

Matt Davidson hits .199 in his second season in AAA, with 165 strikeouts and poor defense, and he is still considered a future piece to the puzzle just because he made a top 100 list. There are a lot of names on the top 100 lists who eventually show you they really didn't belong.

So how close to a fireable offense is this trade for Rick Hahn?

[Dick Allen]

So how close to a fireable offense is this trade for Rick Hahn?

If you fired a GM for a bad trade, it would be the job with the most turnover . Hahn stole Eaton . I just can't understand why people still say it was the right move when it clearly is apparent Davidson isn't what was advertised. He still has 30 HR potential but it is rather unlikely. If Hahn traded him for a closer making close to minimum now I doubt anyone still saying last year's trade was right would say trading him for a closer now would be wrong. He wasn't what he was supposed to be. That is obvious. He really wasn't a top 100 prospect.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If you fired a GM for a bad trade, it would be the job with the most turnover . Hahn stole Eaton . I just can't understand why people still say it was the right move when it clearly is apparent Davidson isn't what was advertised. He still has 30 HR potential but it is rather unlikely. If Hahn traded him for a closer making close to minimum now I doubt anyone still saying last year's trade was right would say trading him for a closer now would be wrong. He wasn't what he was supposed to be. That is obvious. He really wasn't a top 100 prospect.

He was a high K prospect with a longer swing. We have lots of guys like this on the farm. Trayce Thompson, I call him Joe Borchard, Jr. When's he going to make it? Probably never. It's hard to bet on guys like this but some do make it. Crede made it. We all thought Fields was going to make it for a time. If Davidson didn't have any major flaws then he'd have never come for the price of Reed. We may not have been able to acquire him at all. The DBacks acquired Martin Prado to block him, I doubt they would have done that had they thought him to be a better bet.

 

Re: Hahn the thought process behind the move was sound & that's how you're supposed to evaluate a GM. Hahn didn't know whether Davidson would or would not take steps forward, but he did know of the flaws. Much of the talk was about Davidson's D but Hahn said he felt there was a good amount of potential there. So if Hahn thought Davidson would be able to become an average defensive 3B or better then he probably thought that even with Davidson's flaws his power would make up for contact issues during his first 6 years when he'd likely bet at his best physically. So Hahn took a bet that he really had to take somewhere. He also bet on Eaton staying healthy, and that's no sure thing either. He won one and lost another, but the thought process was sound both times. He needed youth and he got some.

 

Also that Jacobs kid we got from Thornton who went with Hector to bring back Eaton, he was another high K guy with a longer swing wasn't he? Obviously AZ isn't adverse to taking on prospects like this. Most prospects don't make it anyway but ones like Jacobs and Davidson, when they do then they can become starters. You just ahve to play the odds. I doubt Hahn is all that shocked about Davidson's flaws getting the better of him though, this happens to multiple players every year in a farm system.

Edited September 19, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[LittleHurt05]

If you fired a GM for a bad trade, it would be the job with the most turnover . Hahn stole Eaton . I just can't understand why people still say it was the right move when it clearly is apparent Davidson isn't what was advertised. He still has 30 HR potential but it is rather unlikely. If Hahn traded him for a closer making close to minimum now I doubt anyone still saying last year's trade was right would say trading him for a closer now would be wrong. He wasn't what he was supposed to be. That is obvious. He really wasn't a top 100 prospect.

 

If you can find a proven 30 HR 3B that a team would have traded for a mediocre closer, please let Rick Hahn know immediately. Welcome to rebuilding. Sometimes you have to take chances on guys and they won't always work out. And let's not declare Davidson dead after one bad AAA season at age 23. Either way, Addison Reed wasn't gonna be the closer for the next Sox playoff team, nor will he be the closer for the next DBacks playoff team.

[NorthSideSox72]

3 pages on this and no one has pointed out one of the key reasons why this trade was a good idea: Addison Reed is now arbitration eligible. He'll make significant money going forward. Last offseason, he had one pre-arb year left - a year in which the Sox had no reason to proiritize the bullpen. Then he's expensive. This made him a perfect guy to trade (in addition to other reasons others have brought up).

 

It was undoubtedly the right move to make.

 

[SCCWS]

If you can find a proven 30 HR 3B that a team would have traded for a mediocre closer, please let Rick Hahn know immediately. Welcome to rebuilding. Sometimes you have to take chances on guys and they won't always work out. And let's not declare Davidson dead after one bad AAA season at age 23. Either way, Addison Reed wasn't gonna be the closer for the next Sox playoff team, nor will he be the closer for the next DBacks playoff team.

 

Let's not declare Addison Reed at 25 can't be a closer for a playoff team.

 

[LittleHurt05]

Let's not declare Addison Reed at 25 can't be a closer for a playoff team.

 

I never said he can't be a closer for a playoff team. I said he wasn't gonna be closer for the next Sox/DBacks playoff teams. Like NSS said, he is about to get expensive, especially cause arbitration loves the save statistic. Given where those teams are, it makes zero sense to pay your everyday closer a lot of money.

[Dick Allen]

I never said he can't be a closer for a playoff team. I said he wasn't gonna be closer for the next Sox/DBacks playoff teams. Like NSS said, he is about to get expensive, especially cause arbitration loves the save statistic. Given where those teams are, it makes zero sense to pay your everyday closer a lot of money.

Will he get paid next season any more than the Sox paid Belisario or Downs? For him to be really expensive, he would have to be really good.

Edited September 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Steve9347]

Top 100 prospect for a meh closer is always a good trade in theory.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Will he get paid next season any more than the Sox paid Belisario or Downs? For him to be really expensive, he would have to be really good.

 

 

Not true. Arbitrators overrate the save stat. Reed would have gotten expensive. I have made this point in past threads but it doesn't fit the narrative of those against the trade.

[LittleHurt05]

Will he get paid next season any more than the Sox paid Belisario or Downs? For him to be really expensive, he would have to be really good.

 

He probably will. Like I said, when it comes to arbitration, the word "save" makes all the difference. It's not about how well you pitched, it's whether or not you pitched in the 9th inning.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-paying-es...es-teams-money/

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/12/3...ary-arbitration

[southsider2k5]

Let's not declare Addison Reed at 25 can't be a closer for a playoff team.

 

Judging by the continuing decline in his velocities, you might well have seen peak Addison Reed already.

[Dick Allen]

He probably will. Like I said, when it comes to arbitration, the word "save" makes all the difference. It's not about how well you pitched, it's whether or not you pitched in the 9th inning.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-paying-es...es-teams-money/

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/12/3...ary-arbitration

And the example got paid $3.2 million, which is less than Downs and slightly more than Belly. If that is expensive, just wait to you see what Hahn is going to have to spend to fix the bullpen.

 

It would be interesting to see what other offers, if any, they had for Reed.

 

It does boggle my mind there is not 100% agreement the trade did not work out for the White Sox.

[Dick Allen]

Judging by the continuing decline in his velocities, you might well have seen peak Addison Reed already.

Yet his k rate is going up and his walk rate is going down.

[southsider2k5]

And the example got paid $3.2 million, which is less than Downs and slightly more than Belly. If that is expensive, just wait to you see what Hahn is going to have to spend to fix the bullpen.

 

It would be interesting to see what other offers, if any, they had for Reed.

 

It does boggle my mind there is not 100% agreement the trade did not work out for the White Sox.

 

You are muddying the water here between a few different, yet distinctive points, and I think almost everyone else is in agreement with them.

 

#1 This is the type of trade you make a GM when you are rebuilding, and you need position players.

 

#2 Matt Davidson has not performed how the White Sox wanted him to do up to this point. If you want to give up on a 24 year old with plus power at 3B, and just look a the today of the deal, the Diamondbacks have "won" the trade to this point.

 

#3 Just because Davidson has not performed so far, doesn't mean you wouldn't make the same sort of deal again.

[southsider2k5]

Yet his k rate is going up and his walk rate is going down.

 

What about the rest of the peripherals you aren't mentioning?