Addison Reed trade from DBacks' perspective

[Balta1701]

He was a top 100 prospect in theory. Not in reality. And if he doesn't improve a lot it won't be a good deal. Also from his quotes Hahn fully expected him to play a lot for the White Sox this season and he couldn't even get a September call up.

So what should be done to prevent making that mistake again? He was a "top 100 prospect in theory". How do we avoid trading for guys like that?

[RockRaines]

So what should be done to prevent making that mistake again? He was a "top 100 prospect in theory". How do we avoid trading for guys like that?

Its probably not worth your energy to argue this point. There are complaints on this board every day about not acquiring top 100 prospects and when we do they are declared busts after one season. You cant win unless they become all stars. I mean our starting 3B who has shown he can field and hit in the majors was acquired for Jeff Soptic who is still scuffling in A ball and nobody recognizes that.

[southsider2k5]

Its probably not worth your energy to argue this point. There are complaints on this board every day about not acquiring top 100 prospects and when we do they are declared busts after one season. You cant win unless they become all stars. I mean our starting 3B who has shown he can field and hit in the majors was acquired for Jeff Soptic who is still scuffling in A ball and nobody recognizes that.

 

But that doesn't make for a good meme that you can post over, and over, and over, and over...

[BlackSox13]

Rock is right.

 

There's no way Sox scouts could have known Davidson was going to have a career worst year in 2014. They are scouts, not fortune tellers. If the scouts are at fault then so should the people that hired them.

 

Draft picks turn into busts and so do traded prospects. That does not mean Davidson's career is over, just means he has work to do and at 23 there's no reason to give up on him.

 

I really don't see what all the hind sight is about. I know Reed would have helped close games out but the Sox have had problems in the 7,8, and 9th innings so Reed could have only helped so much. Besides, Reed wouldn't have made this rebuilding team a contender anyway so I really don't see the point.

[greg775]

Let's not all omit that Davidson is still very far from a bust.

Kids still a youngin.

 

True.

[Vance Law]

So what should be done to prevent making that mistake again?

 

Best way to avoid making that mistake is to be in a line of business other than baseball.

 

Is your point that you have lined up every decision Hahn has made in his short tenure and graded them. And done the same for every single other GM in baseball. And you've come to the conclusion that Hahn is not the #1 best? That he's not in the top half? Or you just like to complain about the Addison Reed trade?

 

 

 

 

[LDF]

Rock is right.

 

There's no way Sox scouts could have known Davidson was going to have a career worst year in 2014. They are scouts, not fortune tellers. If the scouts are at fault then so should the people that hired them.

 

Draft picks turn into busts and so do traded prospects. That does not mean Davidson's career is over, just means he has work to do and at 23 there's no reason to give up on him.

 

I really don't see what all the hind sight is about. I know Reed would have helped close games out but the Sox have had problems in the 7,8, and 9th innings so Reed could have only helped so much. Besides, Reed wouldn't have made this rebuilding team a contender anyway so I really don't see the point.

 

you are right. lets look at the time of the trade, use those stats and opinions of poster then.

I for one never liked the trade, I always thought pitchers would have a higher rtn.

I thought Hahn was trying to address 2 needs, a third baseman and a player who has

power.

 

jumping on the bandwagon after the fact is what I am seeing. how many posters thought it was a

good trade at that time?

 

yeah he is 23 lets see what happens next season.

[LDF]

you are right. lets look at the time of the trade, use those stats and opinions of poster then.

I for one never liked the trade, I always thought pitchers would have a higher rtn.

I thought Hahn was trying to address 2 needs, a third baseman and a player who has

power.

 

jumping on the bandwagon after the fact is what I am seeing. how many posters thought it was a

good trade at that time?

 

yeah he is 23 lets see what happens next season.

 

 

here is another interesting thought. I really don't know if this has been posted.

 

but as a team, how many blown saves has the white sox has >>>> 20 as of today

where does the white sox rank with blown saves in mlb >>>>>>> 9 as of today.

 

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/p...nded/order/true

[Balta1701]

here is another interesting thought. I really don't know if this has been posted.

 

but as a team, how many blown saves has the white sox has >>>> 20 as of today

where does the white sox rank with blown saves in mlb >>>>>>> 9 as of today.

 

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/p...nded/order/true

Equally interesting, the Arizona Diamondbacks also have 20 blown saves on the season.

[Chicago White Sox]

Top 100 prospects who can't hit over .200 in the International League usually lose their status as a top 100 prospect. Davidson has fallen straight on his face this year after having what was an average year in the Pacific Coast League. Lining up Eaton's stats next to Davidson's really illustrates that point.

100% agree with this. People are acting as if Davidson struggled in his first season as a major leaguer, not in a repeat season at AAA. Dude was absolutely horrendous for Charlotte despite AAAA type players like Jordan Danks, Josh Phegley, & Andy Wilkins putting up strong seasons. There is nothing to debate here, Davidson sucked balls in 2014 and lost all prospect status as a result. He's going to have to rebuild his value from scratch next year and hopefully he was hiding an injury this year, because his fall from grace was quite epic.

 

Despite all this, I was a fan of the trade at the time. Wasn't a huge fan of Davidson necessarily, but loved the concept of dealing a closer that's about to get expensive for a top 100 type prospect. Again, the trade clearly hasn't worked out for us and Hahn should accept some blame for Davidson actually regressing before even making the majors. That doesn't mean he should be ridiculed for the move, but a sound process alone shouldn't negate him of all blame.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If Hahn could go back in time and not make this trade I'm sure he would, but I'm also sure he'd have traded Reed for someone else & had he the benefit of hindsight he'd acquire somebody's Montas or something, some kid who gets it/turns it on out of nowhere and shoots up the rankings. That's not realistic though, obviously.

 

The Davidson deal makes me think of Marcus Semien. You often have two types of prospects, the "baseball player" types and the "toolshed" types, and although some are more towards the middle it seems like most are more one than the other. Davidson was more the tools type than the baseball type given the swing & focus on raw power. Semien is more the baseball player type with solid skills all over the place but not really anything that wows you. Reed's value was probably good enough to bring back either type of player - and forget about the Top 100 s***, because even though Davidson made the list and Semien didn't it doesn't mean that a lot of scouts wouldn't have preferred Semien to Davidson.

 

Now I know Hahn couldn't have traded Reed for Semien because he's already ours, but the point I'm making here is that there are often 2 roads to travel when trading a player like Reed (i.e. a non-star, above average closer with stuff more like a quality SU guy than an electric closer). You aren't getting some great prospect without any major flaws/question marks, and generally you're either going to get a player like a Davidson or a Semien. Both can turn into above-average MLB players if everything goes right, but in the end, neither generally make it. Hahn went with more of the ceiling type but had he picked up a Semien type, a "baseball player" type instead then Semien is a perfect example of another guy who so far hasn't made it and didn't light the world on fire in AAA.

 

In the end Hahn got fair value at the time. He made a move he needed to make at the time, and because young players aren't free and he didn't have much to trade, he gave up Reed. Hahn correctly observed that, at the time, Gillaspie didn't look like a long-term solution, neither did injured Morel obviously, so he identified an area to improve and tried to improve it. Further, in giving up Reed he didn't set the forward progress of the organization back; Reed just isn't that kind of talent & there's no reason another strike-thrower closer like Petricka can't do just as good of a job as Reed would have. The downside on the deal was pretty low, and right here we are sitting pretty much right on the downside of it, and really we're not in some horrible spot now because of it. Hahn made the right move at the time & it didn't work, so what, that happens, and it's going to happen a lot whenever you are acquiring unproven MiLB players. Usually they are going to bust.

[LittleHurt05]

Equally interesting, the Arizona Diamondbacks also have 20 blown saves on the season.

 

In 54 save opportunities, exactly how many the Sox have had. Weird.

[hi8is]

If Hahn could go back in time and not make this trade I'm sure he would, but I'm also sure he'd have traded Reed for someone else & had he the benefit of hindsight he'd acquire somebody's Montas or something, some kid who gets it/turns it on out of nowhere and shoots up the rankings. That's not realistic though, obviously.

 

The Davidson deal makes me think of Marcus Semien. You often have two types of prospects, the "baseball player" types and the "toolshed" types, and although some are more towards the middle it seems like most are more one than the other. Davidson was more the tools type than the baseball type given the swing & focus on raw power. Semien is more the baseball player type with solid skills all over the place but not really anything that wows you. Reed's value was probably good enough to bring back either type of player - and forget about the Top 100 s***, because even though Davidson made the list and Semien didn't it doesn't mean that a lot of scouts wouldn't have preferred Semien to Davidson.

 

Now I know Hahn couldn't have traded Reed for Semien because he's already ours, but the point I'm making here is that there are often 2 roads to travel when trading a player like Reed (i.e. a non-star, above average closer with stuff more like a quality SU guy than an electric closer). You aren't getting some great prospect without any major flaws/question marks, and generally you're either going to get a player like a Davidson or a Semien. Both can turn into above-average MLB players if everything goes right, but in the end, neither generally make it. Hahn went with more of the ceiling type but had he picked up a Semien type, a "baseball player" type instead then Semien is a perfect example of another guy who so far hasn't made it and didn't light the world on fire in AAA.

 

In the end Hahn got fair value at the time. He made a move he needed to make at the time, and because young players aren't free and he didn't have much to trade, he gave up Reed. Hahn correctly observed that, at the time, Gillaspie didn't look like a long-term solution, neither did injured Morel obviously, so he identified an area to improve and tried to improve it. Further, in giving up Reed he didn't set the forward progress of the organization back; Reed just isn't that kind of talent & there's no reason another strike-thrower closer like Petricka can't do just as good of a job as Reed would have. The downside on the deal was pretty low, and right here we are sitting pretty much right on the downside of it, and really we're not in some horrible spot now because of it. Hahn made the right move at the time & it didn't work, so what, that happens, and it's going to happen a lot whenever you are acquiring unproven MiLB players. Usually they are going to bust.

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[The Ultimate Champion]

For all we know the Davidson deal was a blessing in disguise, kind of along the line DA was talking about earlier, how one move affects another.

 

Davidson hitting .199 in Charlotte is bad but none of us give a s*** what the Knights do, we just care about what he does in MLB. But even if he hit .299 with the same or better power numbers and a lot better contact then it still wouldn't necessarily make it as a MLB player. However had Davidson put out a very good year instead of a very bad year then Hahn probably keeps a spot open on the 2015 MLB roster for him, and who knows, that could have ended up a mistake.

 

As it is now, Davidson's bad year keeps him out of the picture & makes Hahn think about making another move he otherwise wouldn't have thought about making. If that move, then, is the one that really makes us better then how much all things considered has Davidson's bad AAA season hurt us? If Davidson or any other MiLB is going to bomb out on *us* before we are able to trade him and capitalize on his present value, then ideally that bombing occurs away from the MLB club where it actually has an on-field impact.

[The Ultimate Champion]

 

Yeah I guess I could have just posted "poop," sorry.

[caulfield12]

For all we know the Davidson deal was a blessing in disguise, kind of along the line DA was talking about earlier, how one move affects another.

 

Davidson hitting .199 in Charlotte is bad but none of us give a s*** what the Knights do, we just care about what he does in MLB. But even if he hit .299 with the same or better power numbers and a lot better contact then it still wouldn't necessarily make it as a MLB player. However had Davidson put out a very good year instead of a very bad year then Hahn probably keeps a spot open on the 2015 MLB roster for him, and who knows, that could have ended up a mistake.

 

As it is now, Davidson's bad year keeps him out of the picture & makes Hahn think about making another move he otherwise wouldn't have thought about making. If that move, then, is the one that really makes us better then how much all things considered has Davidson's bad AAA season hurt us? If Davidson or any other MiLB is going to bomb out on *us* before we are able to trade him and capitalize on his present value, then ideally that bombing occurs away from the MLB club where it actually has an on-field impact.

 

That's convoluted logic....we were better off losing the santos reed and Jackson/teahen trades because whiffing on all those resulted in a more pronounced talent gap than previously?

[Vance Law]

people are putting Gillaspie in with Abreu, Eaton and Alexei as part of the core of the offense moving forward. In my opinion that's completely off-base. Obviously the Gillaspie-Soptic trade was a huge win but Gillaspie is still a third division starter if a starter at all.

 

3rd division out of how many divisions? 10 divisions?

 

He's 10th in MLB in OPS for third basemen. He's 5th in MLB against righties. He can get around 500 PA's a year against righties and he costs no money. Would your idea be to spend considerable resources to try to acquire one of the 4 hitters better than him? Do you think Davidson will ever be able to put up an .821 OPS against righties (74% of pitchers faced)?

Edited September 20, 2014 by Vance Law

[Y2Jimmy0]

3rd division out of how many divisions? 10 divisions?

 

He's 10th in MLB in OPS for third basemen. He's 5th in MLB against righties. He can get around 500 PA's a year against righties and he costs no money. Would your idea be to spend considerable resources to try to acquire one of the 4 hitters better than him? Do you think Davidson will ever be able to put up an .821 OPS against righties (74% of pitchers faced)?

 

Gillaspie is an offensive black hole against LHP though. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that Davidson has an .820 OPS against LHP at some point either.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Gillaspie is an offensive black hole against LHP though. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that Davidson has an .820 OPS against LHP at some point either.

This year has proven Gillaspie is a platoon player, but when you're the left-handed half of the platoon you can still provide a ton of value. We need someone to take Conor's ABs against RHP and we should be able to get above-average production out of the position. I don't believe that player will be Davidson though, more likely Semien or possibly Saladino.

[oldsox]

Good stuff there, Ultimate.

[Vance Law]

Gillaspie is an offensive black hole against LHP though. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that Davidson has an .820 OPS against LHP at some point either.

 

Agreed. And who cares! Great! We've got someone for basically the league minimum who offensively is top 5 at his position against 74% of the baseball pitchers.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Good stuff there, Ultimate.

TYVM! I will rate your profile 5 stars!

 

Above in this thread hi8is mocked my long, essay-like posting habits so I'm glad someone at least reads them (other than caulfield who reads everything). But he's right though, my posts are seriously FRAT most the time. Oh well.

 

I've been stuck in front of my computer a lot more than usual these last couple weeks having to/choosing to work on some things I'm not really that good at/don't want to do, and so I start on/resume something, then I just click on SoxTalk and start thinking about baseball and piss the time away. Then I get all in depth about it and really, it's just all an escape for me, when my brain doesn't want to focus on what it really needs to focus on (work, life) I open my browser and go here. But I really do need to stop posting here, I do it way too much now and really sports just don't matter anyway. I always know that, but then sometimes I f*** up and start thinking about baseball again. What a happy little escape sports are. I know I can't be the only one that thinks that way.

 

So anyway I'm glad someone reads some of this s*** I type.

 

It's funny because I think the nature of this thread dovetails fairly well with what I'm saying. Sports are so easy to be opinionated about, you can lash out at, defend, define, detail in depth, anything you like right on down the rabbithole until you're just lost in it. But it really doesn't matter. Matt Davidson really doesn't matter, neither did Reed, this trade like the majority of baseball trades, 10 years from now is porbably best described as a non-event. But holy s*** can these things be drug out into the open and beaten down into pulp & pudding. That's one thing I'm great at. Hahn's doing a fine job overall, nothing wrong with him at all, and there was never anything wrong with KW either IMO. But b****ing about it all and arguing over it all is at least something, it's at least engaging if not always fun, and seems a lot more benign in terms of its overall counterproductivity than it really is.

 

It's just funny because no matter what there is so much depth in baseball and so much history and it's such a massive part of our culture that it's completely impossible to ever permanently resolve anything, like all these themes just keep repeating themselves year after year, and somehow the subject matter seems fresh when its really not. The game of baseball is really bottomless, but rather than a pit its more like a gopher hole where eventually you're right back on the surface looking at the same thing from a different vantage point. But it's just a total waste of time really. Maybe it's just best to be a casual fan, and never pay attention to anything, never look at anything in detail, because then you don't get sucked in. But then you could still get sucked into something else. Baseball is my little sickness but goddamn what a waste of time. At least its not video games & porn, or drugs or tv or something. Not as bad but still a waste of time. I've now just wasted whatever time it took my to type this, f*** it I'm going to make some coffee.

 

So thanks for reading this stuff, I think I'm going to quit this site for a while. I'm sure Hahn is going to be really busy & if we're going to spend some money we've got a real shot at contention with Danks not in the rotation & Rodon in there instead. December will be fun.

[caulfield12]

Everyone goes through similar feelings until/unless something big happens in the offseason...

 

Being married now again I've spent a lot more time shopping and thats just as frivolous and usually wastes more money unless you actually attend most of the games. On the other hand impulse buying brings a different type of happiness for women. Life is always a trade off. I just watched hundreds if not thousands of people waiting for 2-3 hours for the grand opening of an ikea store here in china...and spent $750 on a Mont Blanc pen to make my wife happy so everything is pretty much relative. Next week I will see a wta tennis tournament live for the first time in wuhan. I've loved tennis my whole life yet never attended a single tournament until now. Maybe I will even meet Maria sharapova out shopping later haha.

 

So Reading classic novels watching movies or tv shows...we all need our escapes in one form or another. Maybe for others it's music and going to concerts.

 

 

[LDF]

TYVM! I will rate your profile 5 stars!

December will be fun.

 

well TUC, I hope you rethink your decision to stop writing. yeah I have read your post, it was

like reading a classic novel like war and peace, but crap, about 90% of the time I learned something

new, btw I do like your opinions. yeah it might stirs things up and then some one will post something

which I may not have known. besides, I get really envious of your ability and talent at composition and

by reading my crap you can tell ...... well you can end that thought.

 

I think the whole offseason will be great with a lot of news esp in fa signing. first up is the int'l fa with

Tomas being front and center.

 

peace and have a great time.

[LDF]

Agreed. And who cares! Great! We've got someone for basically the league minimum who offensively is top 5 at his position against 74% of the baseball pitchers.

 

re conors I was looking at his monthly splits and I am seeing a horrible aug and sept.