Addison Reed trade from DBacks' perspective

[Y2Jimmy0]

And the example got paid $3.2 million, which is less than Downs and slightly more than Belly. If that is expensive, just wait to you see what Hahn is going to have to spend to fix the bullpen.

 

It would be interesting to see what other offers, if any, they had for Reed.

 

It does boggle my mind there is not 100% agreement the trade did not work out for the White Sox.

 

 

We don't know if it worked out or not. What if Matt Davidson ends up being adequate at 3rd, hits .260ish and hits 25 homers a year? It hasn't worked out so far but it's not like Davidson is dead or something. He has a ton of power. He even displayed a ton of power in a terrible season. If you are willing to write him off already then go right ahead but you shouldn't be surprised if others have not.

[caulfield12]

How much will the white sox have to spend on players currently outside the org to fix the pen?

 

How much will it cost to pay Nate jones to rehab all season?

 

How much was wasted on belisario, lindstrom, downs and Paulino with zero net return on investment?

Edited September 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

What about the rest of the peripherals you aren't mentioning?

His HR rate is what is killing him. If that goes back to normal, he is better than a AAA strikeout machine who cannot field or hit .200.

 

Hahn made some great moves last winter. This trade wasn't one of them.

[southsider2k5]

His HR rate is what is killing him. If that goes back to normal, he is better than a AAA strikeout machine who cannot field or hit .200.

 

Hahn made some great moves last winter. This trade wasn't one of them.

 

And if Matt Davidson goes back to normal, the Sox win this trade in a laugher.

[Dick Allen]

We don't know if it worked out or not. What if Matt Davidson ends up being adequate at 3rd, hits .260ish and hits 25 homers a year? It hasn't worked out so far but it's not like Davidson is dead or something. He has a ton of power. He even displayed a ton of power in a terrible season. If you are willing to write him off already then go right ahead but you shouldn't be surprised if others have not.

And what if Kate Upton tells Verlander to go scratch because she is with me now?

 

Why is it OK to write off Reed but not Davidson?

[Dick Allen]

And if Matt Davidson goes back to normal, the Sox win this trade in a laugher.

No, because you are basing normal on numbers accumulated at Reno. He had about a team average OPS.

 

 

[LittleHurt05]

And the example got paid $3.2 million, which is less than Downs and slightly more than Belly. If that is expensive, just wait to you see what Hahn is going to have to spend to fix the bullpen.

 

It would be interesting to see what other offers, if any, they had for Reed.

 

It does boggle my mind there is not 100% agreement the trade did not work out for the White Sox.

 

Reed has way more saves than the example, but yes a similar amount in 2015, then much more most likely in 2016. Throughout their careers, Reed has not been a better reliever than Downs, Hahn just happened to sign him right when he fell apart.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Davidson was the best offer Hahn received, there was only one Kevin Towers out there.

 

From what I have read on this board, there is 100% agreement the trade hasn't worked out for the Sox yet. Just because it hasn't worked out, doesn't mean it was a stupid trade. That also doesn't mean Davidson can't turn it around, he's 23, not 27.

[Eminor3rd]

If you fired a GM for a bad trade, it would be the job with the most turnover . Hahn stole Eaton . I just can't understand why people still say it was the right move when it clearly is apparent Davidson isn't what was advertised. He still has 30 HR potential but it is rather unlikely. If Hahn traded him for a closer making close to minimum now I doubt anyone still saying last year's trade was right would say trading him for a closer now would be wrong. He wasn't what he was supposed to be. That is obvious. He really wasn't a top 100 prospect.

 

Because we're judging the move itself, not the result. Yeah, you can make the case that the scouts are to blame for missing on Davidson, but you can't make much of a case that a solid late inning releiver shouldn't be traded for a high-end 3B prospect on a team with no 3B solution.

[Y2Jimmy0]

And what if Kate Upton tells Verlander to go scratch because she is with me now?

 

Why is it OK to write off Reed but not Davidson?

 

 

I didn't write off Reed. I just said that I'd rather have the chance at a power hitting 3B with 6 years of salary control than an average-above average relief pitcher who was entering his arb years.

[southsider2k5]

No, because you are basing normal on numbers accumulated at Reno. He had about a team average OPS.

 

.831 does not equal .770.

[NorthSideSox72]

And the example got paid $3.2 million, which is less than Downs and slightly more than Belly. If that is expensive, just wait to you see what Hahn is going to have to spend to fix the bullpen.

 

It would be interesting to see what other offers, if any, they had for Reed.

 

It does boggle my mind there is not 100% agreement the trade did not work out for the White Sox.

Of course it hasn't worked out - so far - for the White Sox. But it also has done no harm so far (given that Reed's performance has been lackluster anyway), and it has the potential to be a win going forward.

 

Regardless of that, you evaluate the GM on transactions at the time they were made. I'm surprised there is not 100% agreement that it was a good trade to make at the time it was made.

 

[caulfield12]

.831 does not equal .770.

 

Results for phegley danks Wilkins vis a vis Davidson in Charlotte this year don't compute

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I don't have an issue with the trade. I would just like to know what other offers he had, if any, for Reed.

[NorthSideSox72]

Results for phegley danks Wilkins vis a vis Davidson in Charlotte this year don't compute

I can't tell what this post even means.

 

[Quin]

I can't tell what this post even means.

 

The fact that the rest of the Knights lineup had a fun time in the Charlotte bandbox while Davidson sucked.

[Dick Allen]

Of course it hasn't worked out - so far - for the White Sox. But it also has done no harm so far (given that Reed's performance has been lackluster anyway), and it has the potential to be a win going forward.

 

Regardless of that, you evaluate the GM on transactions at the time they were made. I'm surprised there is not 100% agreement that it was a good trade to make at the time it was made.

If that is the case, Brock for Brogolio if you look at their previous numbers, wasn't a bad trade for the Cubs.

 

And if that is the case, no one should ever complain about Jeff Keppinger being a bad signing even though Hahn himself said he f***ed up that one.

 

If all trades and signings should be judged at the moment they are made, especially if they include prospects, to me that is silly. I don't care if Matt Davidson was ranked 1 or 1000 by BA or any of the others, and neither does Hahn. It is what the White Sox think of him that matters. And if he turns out to not be the prospect BA or BP or Keith Law make him out to be, that really is inapplicable, because the White Sox shouldn't and don't rely on their scouting reports to acquire players. A GM needs to be able to project. Hahn looks like he is capable of this, but this one blew up in his face.

[LittleHurt05]

If that is the case, Brock for Brogolio if you look at their previous numbers, wasn't a bad trade for the Cubs.

 

And if that is the case, no one should ever complain about Jeff Keppinger being a bad signing even though Hahn himself said he f***ed up that one.

 

If all trades and signings should be judged at the moment they are made, especially if they include prospects, to me that is silly. I don't care if Matt Davidson was ranked 1 or 1000 by BA or any of the others, and neither does Hahn. It is what the White Sox think of him that matters. And if he turns out to not be the prospect BA or BP or Keith Law make him out to be, that really is inapplicable, because the White Sox shouldn't and don't rely on their scouting reports to acquire players. A GM needs to be able to project. Hahn looks like he is capable of this, but this one blew up in his face.

 

Does he get credit for projecting Addison Reed to give up 11 homers in 57 IP? If you are gonna call him out for Davidson's bad year, at least give him credit for Reed's bad year too.

[chitownsportsfan]

If that is the case, Brock for Brogolio if you look at their previous numbers, wasn't a bad trade for the Cubs.

 

And if that is the case, no one should ever complain about Jeff Keppinger being a bad signing even though Hahn himself said he f***ed up that one.

 

If all trades and signings should be judged at the moment they are made, especially if they include prospects, to me that is silly. I don't care if Matt Davidson was ranked 1 or 1000 by BA or any of the others, and neither does Hahn. It is what the White Sox think of him that matters. And if he turns out to not be the prospect BA or BP or Keith Law make him out to be, that really is inapplicable, because the White Sox shouldn't and don't rely on their scouting reports to acquire players. A GM needs to be able to project. Hahn looks like he is capable of this, but this one blew up in his face.

 

Sometimes no matter how good your scouting and process is a guy just doesn't pan out. It's just the nature of prospects. You always trade a mediocre closer entering ARB for a top 100 MLB prospect. You continue to argue from a crystal ball hindsight is 20/20 perspective but you can't do that.

 

It's like saying you have a chance to PH Jose Abreu for Gordon Beckham in the bottom of the 9th with the tying run on second and Jose strikes out to end the inning. That doesn't mean it was a bad idea to insert Abreu, it just means the process was good but you had a bad outcome.

 

Say you leave Beckham in and he gets a hit and ties the game. Jose remains on the bench. Would anyone in their right mind think that was anything other than dumb luck from a bad decision?

[The Ultimate Champion]

If that is the case, Brock for Brogolio if you look at their previous numbers, wasn't a bad trade for the Cubs.

 

And if that is the case, no one should ever complain about Jeff Keppinger being a bad signing even though Hahn himself said he f***ed up that one.

 

If all trades and signings should be judged at the moment they are made, especially if they include prospects, to me that is silly. I don't care if Matt Davidson was ranked 1 or 1000 by BA or any of the others, and neither does Hahn. It is what the White Sox think of him that matters. And if he turns out to not be the prospect BA or BP or Keith Law make him out to be, that really is inapplicable, because the White Sox shouldn't and don't rely on their scouting reports to acquire players. A GM needs to be able to project. Hahn looks like he is capable of this, but this one blew up in his face.

I don't want to pile on or anything but project based on what? Meaningless minor league numbers? You can look at what he can and cannot do physically, you scout him, you go over the video, and you take the numbers with a grain of salt. You can't project anything really until there's a history there. It's like projecting what a player in Low-A would do if you immediately bumped him up to AAA and had him face a bunch of competition he's never faced in his life. Except it's worse because there really is no jump like AA/AAA to MLB.

 

All you can do is look at whether your GM seems to be 1) identifying what the real problems are and 2) making sound decisions to address those areas at the time. If we tried to evaluate him in any other way we'd be foolish because he's not a psychic, and if we expected him to accurately project MiLB players into MLB players then we'd have to expect him to use tools that nobody else seems to possess either.

Edited September 19, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[caulfield12]

Beane and dombrowski look/ed dumber in the last month....but would anyone rather have jack z. Or Dayton Moore as their gm?

 

Lester samardzija and price trades also looked reasonable at the time and still might end up working out in the end.

[Dick Allen]

I don't want to pile on or anything but project based on what? Meaningless minor league numbers? You can look at what he can and cannot do physically, you scout him, you go over the video, and you take the numbers with a grain of salt. You can't project anything really until there's a history there. It's like projecting what a player in Low-A would do if you immediately bumped him up to AAA and had him face a bunch of competition he's never faced in his life. Except it's worse because there really is no jump like AA/AAA to MLB.

 

All you can do is look at whether your GM seems to be 1) identifying what the real problems are and 2) making sound decisions to address those areas at the time. If we tried to evaluate him in any other way we'd be foolish because he's not a psychic, and if we expected him to accurately project MiLB players into MLB players then we'd have to expect him to use tools that nobody else seems to possess either.

Aren't prospect rankings basically projections? The White Sox have reports on every player. Apparently they liked Davidson a lot. In the end, it is the result that matters. If Matt Davidson doesn't help the White Sox, trading for him was a mistake. It won't be Hahn's last mistake. If it is, he will go down as the greatest GM in history.

 

The hope was the Sox got a middle of the order bat who could hold his own defensively and would be called up as soon as his super 2 chances were at zero. The reality is they have a poor fielding strike out machine (contact was always a red flag) who couldn't make enough contact against mediocre AAA pitching to hit .200. Yes he still will only be 24, but it looks like he has a long ways to go to get anywhere near what a lot of people thought he was when he was acquired.

Edited September 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[chitownsportsfan]

Aren't prospect rankings basically projections? The White Sox have reports on every player. Apparently they liked Davidson a lot. In the end, it is the result that matters. If Matt Davidson doesn't help the White Sox, trading for him was a mistake. It won't be Hahn's last mistake. If it is, he will go down as the greatest GM in history.

 

The hope was the Sox got a middle of the order bat who could hold his own defensively and would be called up as soon as his super 2 chances were at zero. The reality is they have a poor fielding strike out machine (contact was always a red flag) who couldn't make enough contact against mediocre AAA pitching to hit .200. Yes he still will only be 24, but it looks like he has a long ways to go to get anywhere near what a lot of people thought he was when he was acquired.

 

IT'S NOT THE RESULT THAT MATTERS. IT'S THE PROCESS.

 

Good god. If I drive my car 90mph through a red light and I don't hit anyone and I get to work on time can anyone in their right mind possibly say "it's the result that matters"? When I get pulled over I'll tell the cop "well I didn't hit anyone officer".

Edited September 19, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[cabiness42]

Aren't prospect rankings basically projections? The White Sox have reports on every player. Apparently they liked Davidson a lot. In the end, it is the result that matters. If Matt Davidson doesn't help the White Sox, trading for him was a mistake. It won't be Hahn's last mistake. If it is, he will go down as the greatest GM in history.

 

The hope was the Sox got a middle of the order bat who could hold his own defensively and would be called up as soon as his super 2 chances were at zero. The reality is they have a poor fielding strike out machine (contact was always a red flag) who couldn't make enough contact against mediocre AAA pitching to hit .200. Yes he still will only be 24, but it looks like he has a long ways to go to get anywhere near what a lot of people thought he was when he was acquired.

 

If you are this results oriented in everything that you do, I would love to get in a big poker game with you sometime.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Aren't prospect rankings basically projections? The White Sox have reports on every player. Apparently they liked Davidson a lot. In the end, it is the result that matters. If Matt Davidson doesn't help the White Sox, trading for him was a mistake. It won't be Hahn's last mistake. If it is, he will go down as the greatest GM in history.

 

The hope was the Sox got a middle of the order bat who could hold his own defensively and would be called up as soon as his super 2 chances were at zero. The reality is they have a poor fielding strike out machine (contact was always a red flag) who couldn't make enough contact against mediocre AAA pitching to hit .200. Yes he still will only be 24, but it looks like he has a long ways to go to get anywhere near what a lot of people thought he was when he was acquired.

The results do matter but only after enough time has passed.

 

Baseball isn't an easy game to predict but if a GM has, say, 5 years to work with and generally makes sound decisions during those 5 years, the chances are he is going to make his team better in some way. Now if you have a really cheap owner or something or have people above you holding you back in certain areas that is one thing, but if you have enough freedom to work then that process should result in something positive.

 

If however it seems like sound decisions are being made but after a certain reasonable period of time the results just aren't there, then you need to re-evaluate everything from the top down. But Hahn obviously is not there yet & his good moves outweigh his bad ones.

 

Actually as an aside his best moves were the Abreu signing who KW scouted, Q's extension who KW signed, Sale's extension who KW drafted, and the Peavy extension and then trade who of course KW also acquired. So really there was this huge focus on KW and all these "mistakes" and so forth and yet all Hahn's best moves are ones KW was in large part responsible for. The Eaton trade is probably next, followed by the Connor-Soptic trade, and both of those moves have probably helped more than losing Reed has hurt.

[Eminor3rd]

IT'S NOT THE RESULT THAT MATTERS. IT'S THE PROCESS.

 

Good god. If I drive my car 90mph through a red light and I don't hit anyone and I get to work on time can anyone in their right mind possibly say "it's the result that matters"? When I get pulled over I'll tell the cop "well I didn't hit anyone officer".

 

If you are this results oriented in everything that you do, I would love to get in a big poker game with you sometime.

 

This is the crux of the matter.