Three YEPS and three NOPES

[Dam8610]

I agree with all of this, but just want to note on the bolded - that's a lot of crap the Sox are shopping. It's the same problem they had at the deadline this year and it's the major problem with the current roster construction, but it's a very good problem to have. Right now, the Sox have a few very talented, high upside players on the roster - specifically Sale, Quintana, Abreu, Eaton, and possibly Garcia (though I'm still timid, he's acquainted himself fairly well and he should be a good bat moving forward, if nothing else). The problem is filling in around them - the back of the rotation needs help, the bullpen is very mediocre, and there are still holes and upgradeable positions throughout the lineup. Those are much, much easier to fill than giant, glaring holes where you need big time production.

 

Basically, if you shop those other guys, don't expect a lot because they are not very good.

 

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying, and with marginal value in mind, I think Gillaspie is pretty much untradable, since I doubt other teams will value him at his performance level for the year, especially since he fell off a cliff in August. That said, he's 28 and is performing like an above average 3B. That leaves Ramirez as the only guy you're going to get much value for, and that should only happen if an offer is to good to resist. Viciedo might net a reclamation project, and Danks would net another bad contract at best. I realize that you're not likely to pick up anything of value for anyone else, but on the off chance that you can, take it.

[Boopa1219]

I'll go with more general guidelines as opposed to more confined and restrictive moves you've made.

 

YEPS

1) Do attempt to buy low on talented players. These are players who will be discounted somewhat who won't require long-term deals and can provide some insane value both for the Sox and on the trade market. The optimal guy on the free agent market is Colby Rasmus as he fits the Sox needs for another outfielder while offering insane upside to the Sox. He's very much a TTO player, which will turn a lot of guys off, but the upside is high enough to warrant a gamble.

2) Do whatever you can to trade John Danks. He's been discussed quite often, and at the deadline I was on the side of keeping him as it didn't make sense to eat money and get rid of him, but I think this team is a lot closer to competing than even I realized. They're likely going to end up eating most of his contract, but there are ways around that, primarily eating another bad contract that the Sox can find some value in. When looking at possible returns, I look at the Sox needs - outfielder, rotation arm, and bullpen arms - and figure out which is most a trade that can be made. I don't know the exact team, but someone with bad contracts and a need for starting pitching. My gut right now tells me Philadelphia is a possible place to trade with a guy like Domonic Brown coming back, but who knows.

3) In coordination with 2, do bring in a good starting pitcher. Again, this is not shedding all the prospects and bringing in a guy like Cueto or signing James Shields to a mega contract, but acquire a solid 3 WAR starting pitcher, essentially a quality #3. Even if you have to spend a bit of money, this will be worth it as the additions of Rodon and said guy can add a total of perhaps 6 WAR to the rotation. That is a team that is competing.

 

NOPES

1) Do not spend a lot of money on part-time players. This includes relievers. With the amount of decent depth the club as well as the number of options the Sox should be able to acquire for cheap, there is no reason to give a Keppinger or Linebrink type of contract out this offseason. Just continue looking for talented non-tenders and waiver claims and keep moving forward. This does not mean don't show interest - there are guys out there who would be worth multi-year deals at the right price (such as Andrew Miller) - but be cautious.

2) Similar to 1 in the yeps, do not buy players at their highest value. This kind of works against Russell Martin, who I think is a special case, but in general, this will only result in negative cost-value. The Sox, currently, are not at a point where they need a guys such as that. Perhaps following the 2015 or 2016 season they can look towards those moves.

3) Do not "blow the load" this offseason. There is no need to spend a huge sum of money on a free agent, nor is there any reason to trade a huge package of minor leaguers for a major leaguer. Keep the ship steady, make incremental upgrades, and put forth the most talented roster you can without making brash or irrational moves. The Sox are not ready for that yet.

 

What is hard-on obsession that you guys have with Colby Rasmus? I do not want him any wear near a sox uniform.

 

[Dam8610]

That's a pretty good post as I am honored you have expressed my position pretty accurately and your toilet paper line was quite well written and funny, especially for an internet forum.

True I don't have much confidence in the Sox bringing in their minor leaguers to fill future roles. I hope you are right about Semien at short. I would prefer your option 3 at this time. Let Lexi play some more for the Sox until Anderson is ready. I'm assuming Anderson was a solid No. 1 pick, but I am getting worried that his defense may suck. The best thing I've heard about his defense on this board is it figures to get better since he's young.

I actually am in favor of Semien playing second next year. I don't want to see him butcher third defensively any longer.

So I want Gillaspie to platoon with somebody at third and pray his defense gets more consistent; Lexi at short; Semien at second and Abreu at first. That's a playoff caliber infield. Yank Lexi out of there and it's a sub .500 team infield (or worse as I expressed earlier) unless Abreu goes bonkers with 60 homers.

 

I appreciate the compliment, but I again have to disagree with your assessment, mainly because I feel that we have completely different assessments of the level of talent on the team, the team needs, and the level of talent it will take for this team to compete. The main reason I would be in favor of trading Ramirez is that I see 2015 as the tail end of the "not-a-rebuild" phase. As such, it's a good time to find out if Semien, Sanchez, and maybe Micah Johnson can be effective major league players. It's highly unlikely that all three won't be able to hack it, so if two don't work out, fill that hole in the 2015 off-season. Whether or not Alexei is traded this off-season, the White Sox need to find a RH utility player who can take starts at 2B, 3B, and possibly LF do they can play matchups well. If Alexei is traded, you're probably looking for a starting caliber bat there rather than a quality bench guy. Again, you're not going to be able to gain 15-20 wins in one off-season without spending an obscene amount of money, depleting the scant resources of the farm system, or both. Thus, if you get an offer that blows you away for Ramirez, it would be foolish not to pull the trigger.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

As for the thread premise, here goes:

 

DO acquire at least two hitters, preferably OF, one of which should be LH and ideally both starter caliber. If I were doing the shopping, I would be looking at potential guys and reclamation projects here. A guy who the front office thinks could be a middle of the order bat is a must, but other than that I would look for good defense and low K rates. One of these holes may be able to be filled internally with Semien depending on how okay you are with he and Sanchez both playing major roles in 2015.

 

DO acquire a solid, #2-3 type RHSP, and a couple of quality bullpen pieces. Doing this will place the Sox in the best position they can be in to contend next year, while also giving some flexibility at the trade deadline if things break poorly, as they did this year. Doing this will also give the Sox a starting 5 that can at least compete for the first half without having to force their hand on Rodon, assuming that you believe that two of Noesi, Danks, Carroll, and Bassitt can give you quality 4 and 5 guys. The other plus from that group is the two that don't make the rotation may be able to be used to improve the bullpen, which will need several upgrades from any and all sources possible for this team to compete next year.

 

DO shop everyone on the ML team except for Sale, Q, Abreu, Eaton, A. Garcia, and anyone under the age of 25. To me, if the price is right on anyone else, you take the deal. The only players that would require a major return in my book would be Ramirez and Gillaspie, because I feel that the production of either would be particularly difficult to replace, and would create a ripple effect of platoon problems, unless you feel Semien can replace Gillaspie's production. Also, if you can sucker someone into taking Danks's contact, great, but unlikely. Viciedo would be a great guy to move as well, especially if you can get anything of value for him.

 

DO NOT hand John Danks a 2015 rotation slot. To me, if the team goes out and signs a #2-3 caliber starter, then rotation slots 4 and 5 should be completely up for grabs. I have a feeling Noesi will pull down one of those slots because he has pitched fairly well for the White Sox this year, but I would like to see Bassitt, maybe Carroll, and hell even Erik Johnson get a shot at a starting slot. I hate the idea of making decisions on sunk costs, and to me, the only reason Danks would even be considered for the 2015 rotation is the sunk cost of his contract. If that's the case, then make him the long man and give a guy like Bassitt a shot to develop. That would be ideal to me, with the eventuality being that Rodon takes one of the 4 or 5 slots when he is ready.

 

DO NOT spend big money in free agency on an old, "proven" bat. Signing a guy like Victor Martinez would set this team back in its goals as he is 36 and will get WAY too much on the open market. Paying a 36 year old $20 million per year for 3 years is obscenely stupid unless you feel that that player can put your team on a championship contending level. Without significant other spending, Victor Martinez would not do that for the White Sox. Nor would Russell Martin, nor any of the other 32-36 year olds available.

 

DO NOT go into "Win Now" mode. This is a ~75 win team. To be a playoff team, it will take a ~15-20 win improvement. It would be nigh impossible to gain that ground this off-season, and it would be bad to do so for the overarching long term goal of building a consistent championship contender. Gaining another 5-10 games this off-season should be the goal, with the full force of "Win Now" mode coming into effect after the 2015 season. Obviously, that doesn't mean start trading away the farm at that point, but I feel as though 2016 is going to be the realistic beginning of the White Sox competitive window with this core.

You said a lot but you said nothing. Don't spend money on old bats in free agency. You know that pretty much anyone who reaches free agency is on the old side . The Sox have needs but all you said is acquire. Didn't say how to acquire but our quality tradeable assets are scarce but we have plenty of payroll room. That would suggest the Sox are more likely to explore the free agent route But don't sign the big names but you want 2 starting OF's and hopefully one is a middle of the order bat ? Do you know what starting outfielders and middle of the order bats cost ? How exactly do we get all that talent without trading anyone or signing anyone to a big free agent contract ?

 

Now Colby Rasmus is 28 and a free agent had a lot of trouble beating the shift and swung at a lot of pitches out of the zone. I think wherever he signs it will be to play on a grass field. He thinks the turf in Toronto has a lot to do with nagging injuries with his hamstrings and hips. He still probably gets $10M a yr. for anywhere from 3-6 years from somebody . Is he someone you like being one of the younger free agents ? He had good years in the past but when he's bad he hits like Viciedo but is a much better fielder. Is a guy who just as likely to "hit" as he is to "miss" a way to build a championship caliber team ?

 

Where is the power coming from next year without Dunn and maybe without Viciedo ? Without naming names , dollars and years it's rather easy to say don't do this or that but how do you execute it ? When is the year we are supposed to be ready? Abreu needs some quality bats around him in the lineup . Should he try to do it all by himself ? Do you want him to be turning 30 and the Sox are still filling holes by trying to nickel and dime their way into a playoff team ?

 

The rumors have been the the Sox do intend to try to get VMart. Now if that's the truth , great , I'm 100% for it . The team has it's big names locked up and the rest are a long way from peak earning years. They have money to spend . Spend it on the best and lets get the talent level on this team higher and try to compete before Sales arm or Q's arm falls off. VMart isn't Dunn maybe the whole Dunn deal has clouded some peoples judgment . He hits for average and power and would be a great asset for our younger player's development and he's not likely to sign a lengthy deal at his age . If he wants 5 years yeah, forget it, but if he'll take 3 we have a few years to work our current starting pitching prospects into the rotation and compete at the same time.

 

So I highly doubt signing a few free agents to 3 year deals with the amount of payroll space the Sox have is going to hamstring the team especially when the long term goal of competing every year isn't going to cost much if our young pitchers can step in.

Edited September 25, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

If we had one full year to assess where Rodon was development-wise, signing Victor would be the right idea for 2015...but, due to his signing late (partially) and the fact that he didn't follow the 2010 Sale route (or even 2014 Finnegan with KC), I'm not read to count on him being a 3+ WAR guy until we actually see him at the major league level. For every Kershaw or Sale, there's 50 Andrew Millers who are high draft picks who never amount to quality starters.

 

Signing Martinez, you're at least one year away and you're already expecting a decline in 2015...so what will we actually have in 2016 and 2017 when we really need him to hit like he has for DET this year?

 

I'd say something more like his numbers from 2011-2013, subtracting 10-25% for aging/wear & tear.

Edited September 25, 2014 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If we had one full year to assess where Rodon was development-wise, signing Victor would be the right idea for 2015...but, due to his signing late (partially) and the fact that he didn't follow the 2010 Sale route (or even 2014 Finnegan with KC), I'm not read to count on him being a 3+ WAR guy until we actually see him at the major league level. For every Kershaw or Sale, there's 50 Andrew Millers who are high draft picks who never amount to quality starters.

 

Signing Martinez, you're at least one year away and you're already expecting a decline in 2015...so what will we actually have in 2016 and 2017 when we really need him to hit like he has for DET this year?

 

I'd say something more like his numbers from 2011-2013, subtracting 10-25% for aging/wear & tear.

He could drop a lot and still be our 2nd best hitter. Besides it's not like I advocated just signing him. There's bullpen and rotation signings also. Probably a trade also. Hahn has few trade chips . The Sox will be active on the free agent market . They have to be because more chips have to be gotten . Need to get over .500 next yr if not contend. If we maintain the status quo when do we start to contend ? Can't expect to get everything you need in one year but we have to get much better next year . That means a LH good bat. Improve the D , bullpen and rotation, get rid of dead weight, bolster bench , still keep eye in int'l signings . Hahn might've got the last bargain from Cuba until some of them fizzle and teams start getting burned by contracts. We can't afford another year of projects not panning out or a big fail on guys like Erik Johnson. Might've been a blessing in disguise though if it forces the Sox into free agency signings. I'm starting to get a feeling though that VMart gets 4 years and 3 is as high as I'd go.

[LDF]

What is hard-on obsession that you guys have with Colby Rasmus? I do not want him any wear near a sox uniform.

 

I am in total agreement. esp if his father starts to yap at the coaches.

[witesoxfan]

What is hard-on obsession that you guys have with Colby Rasmus? I do not want him any wear near a sox uniform.

 

Coming off a bad year, he's not likely going to require a long-term commitment, and he has an incredibly high ceiling. If you can get him for $6-8 mill on an incentive based deal, he's worth the risk as a guy you can play against RHP and as a pinch hitter off the bench against righties. For his career, he's hit .257/.323/.465/.788, which is good for a career wOBA of .340 and a wRC+ of 112 against right handed pitching. Plus he's usually fairly good defensively and he's an athletic player with decent speed.

 

I wouldn't be upset if he wasn't signed, but he's an upside player.

[Dick Allen]

Coming off a bad year, he's not likely going to require a long-term commitment, and he has an incredibly high ceiling. If you can get him for $6-8 mill on an incentive based deal, he's worth the risk as a guy you can play against RHP and as a pinch hitter off the bench against righties. For his career, he's hit .257/.323/.465/.788, which is good for a career wOBA of .340 and a wRC+ of 112 against right handed pitching. Plus he's usually fairly good defensively and he's an athletic player with decent speed.

 

I wouldn't be upset if he wasn't signed, but he's an upside player.

He is hitting .236 with a .285 OBP fanning about a third of the time vs. RHP this season, I would stay away from this guy.

 

 

 

Rasmus mentioned that his trouble at the plate has something to do with the defensive shifts other teams employ against him. That is something he will need to figure out how to combat, but he was right in mentioning that his line drive rate (23.3%, from FanGraphs) is the highest in his career. His BABIP (.294), a statistic that he also mentioned, is close to his career average (.298) so it isn't as depressed as he claims, but it is depressed compared to his two most successful seasons (both in the .350s). Rasmus has been swinging at pitches outside the strike zone more than any point in his career and has had poor contact rates on his swings this season. I don't know how much of these changes in approach come from himself and how much comes from Seitzer and his father. But with the tendency of others to give him advice, perhaps it would help him more than the typical major league player to change his environment and go to a team where he feels more comfortable.

 

It's hard--and unfair--to judge from behind the keyboard, but it sure sounds like Rasmus is burnt out. He mentioned in this interview that he was looking forward to the offseason, and he told Jamie Campbell that he "just wanted to go home." Yea, he is making much more money playing baseball this season than most of us will make in our lives, but he seems to have fallen out of love with his job. So before he falls out of love with his life, maybe he should go home.

 

[VAfan]

3 Yeps.

 

1. Sign Victor Martinez. He's a switch hitter who hits very well from both sides. His career average is .306, .373, .474, .847. He's not a walking stud, like Dunn. But he's a hitting stud, which keeps your offense moving. He's only really had one bad year -- 2008 -- when he got hurt and missed half the season. There's no reason to think he'll drop off a cliff offensively. As someone mentioned, he's Venezuelan, so he helps Avi Garcia reach his potential. Plus, you don't want him back with the Tigers. Since the Sox don't have to give up a first round pick, this is the year to strike in free agency.

 

2. Fix the bullpen. This is the fastest way to improve the Sox' W-L record. The Sox bullpen this year is 23-31, with the 31 losses tops in the majors. The ERA at 4.38 is not league worst, but it's 28th. By comparison, KC's bullpen is 26-18, with an ERA a run better. KC isn't anywhere near the best. I just put it up for illustration that the team could improve by 15 or more games in this area. The question is how to go about fixing this problem. I don't have an answer at this point. I just know it has to be done. If I had to say, I would say find a closer, and work backwards from there.

 

3. Add a right handed starter. The Sox have Sale and Quintana locked up. Rodon will be almost certainly be here at some point in 2015. The Sox will again draft fairly high, where they may find more future starters. But the Sox need a bridge, or an under-30 stud. I would not be inclined to overpay for someone well over 30 like Shields who will want a too-long deal that may be good for a year or two, but then you start wondering how you can unload him (like Danks). I'm not fixated on anyone in particular. It depends on how the market shakes out. It depends on who Don Cooper likes. The Sox were in the mix last year for Tanaka, who's 25. Someone has mentioned Johnny Cueto (in another thread), who's 28. I could see the Sox going either way -- bridge guy or young(ish) stud.

 

If you just did those three things, the Sox could contend in the AL Central next year. Sure, the catching could be better. And you might wonder why you gave Dayan Viciedo another year to figure it out, but these seem like fringe concerns.

 

With a core of Abreu, Martinez, Avi, Eaton, and Ramirez, you can fill in around them with role players. Gillaspie can still improve. Semien can spell him against lefties. Maybe the light goes on again for Matt Davidson? You've got plenty of options at 2B. Flowers has shown solid offense in streaks, but his defense is consistent, and he's still cheap. Spend your money elsewhere. Viciedo might still learn plate discipline. And the Sox won't be carrying Dunn and Konerko so they'll have better bench flexibility.

 

As for the starting staff, a right hander who can slot as high at #3 should give you enough, with an improved bullpen and better offense (with V. Mart), to contend. There are lots of choices for #4 and #5, including likely Rodon at some point. With Coop there, I wouldn't worry.

 

1 Nope.

 

1. Don't trade Alexei Ramirez. If the Sox want to contend in 2015 -- which I think is very possible and is also very likely the goal of the front office -- then they aren't going to trade their reasonably priced All-Star shortstop. They just aren't. Don't create holes that aren't there. Fill the holes that are. Alexei may decline, but he's still likely to be better than any potential replacements for the rest of his contract and beyond. Plus, I think the Cuban connection is important.

 

I don't think I have any other "nopes." I could make some up, like "don't trade Chris Sale," but they aren't realistic.

 

So let me add a bonus "YEP." It's not gonna happen next year, but we can hope it does sooner rather than later:

 

4. Find a new manager.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 Yeps.

 

1. Sign Victor Martinez. He's a switch hitter who hits very well from both sides. His career average is .306, .373, .474, .847. He's not a walking stud, like Dunn. But he's a hitting stud, which keeps your offense moving. He's only really had one bad year -- 2008 -- when he got hurt and missed half the season. There's no reason to think he'll drop off a cliff offensively. As someone mentioned, he's Venezuelan, so he helps Avi Garcia reach his potential. Plus, you don't want him back with the Tigers. Since the Sox don't have to give up a first round pick, this is the year to strike in free agency.

 

2. Fix the bullpen. This is the fastest way to improve the Sox' W-L record. The Sox bullpen this year is 23-31, with the 31 losses tops in the majors. The ERA at 4.38 is not league worst, but it's 28th. By comparison, KC's bullpen is 26-18, with an ERA a run better. KC isn't anywhere near the best. I just put it up for illustration that the team could improve by 15 or more games in this area. The question is how to go about fixing this problem. I don't have an answer at this point. I just know it has to be done. If I had to say, I would say find a closer, and work backwards from there.

 

3. Add a right handed starter. The Sox have Sale and Quintana locked up. Rodon will be almost certainly be here at some point in 2015. The Sox will again draft fairly high, where they may find more future starters. But the Sox need a bridge, or an under-30 stud. I would not be inclined to overpay for someone well over 30 like Shields who will want a too-long deal that may be good for a year or two, but then you start wondering how you can unload him (like Danks). I'm not fixated on anyone in particular. It depends on how the market shakes out. It depends on who Don Cooper likes. The Sox were in the mix last year for Tanaka, who's 25. Someone has mentioned Johnny Cueto (in another thread), who's 28. I could see the Sox going either way -- bridge guy or young(ish) stud.

 

If you just did those three things, the Sox could contend in the AL Central next year. Sure, the catching could be better. And you might wonder why you gave Dayan Viciedo another year to figure it out, but these seem like fringe concerns.

 

With a core of Abreu, Martinez, Avi, Eaton, and Ramirez, you can fill in around them with role players. Gillaspie can still improve. Semien can spell him against lefties. Maybe the light goes on again for Matt Davidson? You've got plenty of options at 2B. Flowers has shown solid offense in streaks, but his defense is consistent, and he's still cheap. Spend your money elsewhere. Viciedo might still learn plate discipline. And the Sox won't be carrying Dunn and Konerko so they'll have better bench flexibility.

 

As for the starting staff, a right hander who can slot as high at #3 should give you enough, with an improved bullpen and better offense (with V. Mart), to contend. There are lots of choices for #4 and #5, including likely Rodon at some point. With Coop there, I wouldn't worry.

 

1 Nope.

 

1. Don't trade Alexei Ramirez. If the Sox want to contend in 2015 -- which I think is very possible and is also very likely the goal of the front office -- then they aren't going to trade their reasonably priced All-Star shortstop. They just aren't. Don't create holes that aren't there. Fill the holes that are. Alexei may decline, but he's still likely to be better than any potential replacements for the rest of his contract and beyond. Plus, I think the Cuban connection is important.

 

I don't think I have any other "nopes." I could make some up, like "don't trade Chris Sale," but they aren't realistic.

 

So let me add a bonus "YEP." It's not gonna happen next year, but we can hope it does sooner rather than later:

 

4. Find a new manager.

It's like I'm reading everything I said My starter and closer where Brandon McCarthy and David Robertson also can choose among Zach Duke (LH) , Tom Gorzelanny and Luke Gregerson . All those guys are free agents. I could go either way with Alexei depending on how successful we are at signing free agents. But I am a strong proponent of good D up the middle so I'm fine with or without the Missile.

[Dam8610]

You said a lot but you said nothing. Don't spend money on old bats in free agency. You know that pretty much anyone who reaches free agency is on the old side . The Sox have needs but all you said is acquire. Didn't say how to acquire but our quality tradeable assets are scarce but we have plenty of payroll room. That would suggest the Sox are more likely to explore the free agent route But don't sign the big names but you want 2 starting OF's and hopefully one is a middle of the order bat ? Do you know what starting outfielders and middle of the order bats cost ? How exactly do we get all that talent without trading anyone or signing anyone to a big free agent contract ?

 

Now Colby Rasmus is 28 and a free agent had a lot of trouble beating the shift and swung at a lot of pitches out of the zone. I think wherever he signs it will be to play on a grass field. He thinks the turf in Toronto has a lot to do with nagging injuries with his hamstrings and hips. He still probably gets $10M a yr. for anywhere from 3-6 years from somebody . Is he someone you like being one of the younger free agents ? He had good years in the past but when he's bad he hits like Viciedo but is a much better fielder. Is a guy who just as likely to "hit" as he is to "miss" a way to build a championship caliber team ?

 

Where is the power coming from next year without Dunn and maybe without Viciedo ? Without naming names , dollars and years it's rather easy to say don't do this or that but how do you execute it ? When is the year we are supposed to be ready? Abreu needs some quality bats around him in the lineup . Should he try to do it all by himself ? Do you want him to be turning 30 and the Sox are still filling holes by trying to nickel and dime their way into a playoff team ?

 

The rumors have been the the Sox do intend to try to get VMart. Now if that's the truth , great , I'm 100% for it . The team has it's big names locked up and the rest are a long way from peak earning years. They have money to spend . Spend it on the best and lets get the talent level on this team higher and try to compete before Sales arm or Q's arm falls off. VMart isn't Dunn maybe the whole Dunn deal has clouded some peoples judgment . He hits for average and power and would be a great asset for our younger player's development and he's not likely to sign a lengthy deal at his age . If he wants 5 years yeah, forget it, but if he'll take 3 we have a few years to work our current starting pitching prospects into the rotation and compete at the same time.

 

So I highly doubt signing a few free agents to 3 year deals with the amount of payroll space the Sox have is going to hamstring the team especially when the long term goal of competing every year isn't going to cost much if our young pitchers can step in.

 

If you think that spending in free agency will make this team about 20 wins better and capable of sustaining that level of success for the next 5+ seasons at least, then disregard my post, as the premise of the entire thing is that it's going to take longer than this off-season to build a sustainable contender, likely another full year. That said, Victor Martinez is not the answer unless the question is "Who can the White Sox sign to a contract they'll regret by midseason 2016?" He's 36 years old and it appears that some team is going to give him $20 million per year for at least 3 years. That will hamstring the process of putting together a competitive team for 2016 and beyond. If the team wants to spend $20 million this off-season, they should acquire three or four players who could give much bigger returns on investment. I didn't get into specifics because I haven't really studied the free agent class, but you mentioned one guy that might fit the bill that I'm taking about in Rasmus, Markakis is another guy that might work if the O's don't pick up his option, and I've heard the name Michael Saunders tossed around, which doesn't seem like a bad idea either. The savings you get between two decent bats vs. Martinez could be spent on a pen arm or two, then toss another $15-20 million in for another pen arm and a decent SP and you've set the stage well for 2016. If the team improves 5-10 wins with that kind of off-season, then you go get the big bat in the 2015 off-season, when the entire contract will occur in competitive years.

 

[spiderman]

A different take on an offseason thread that I hope will invite some thoughtful responses.

 

The rules: First name three moves the Sox absolutely need to MAKE this offseason, then name three moves the Sox absolutely need to AVOID this offseason. To wit:

 

Three YEPS:

 

1. Sign Russell Martin at anything up to 4yr/$60m -- He will NOT ever be as good at the plate as he was this year, but that's okay because he was a MONSTER this year and doesn't need to be to make the deal worth it. He has a career high 145 wRC+ this season, but all we need from him is about 100, and his career line is 106. THat would make him an elite defender with a league average bat who also happens to bring Veteran Leadership™ to the table. Even if his bat begins to decline immediately, game-calling and pitch-framing tend to improve with experience, and having that kind of glove back there witha bat that doesn't kill you is worth its weight in blood diamonds.

 

Admittedly, this was a much more attractive option when I first started clamoring for it midseason before the national media caught the scent, and he's going .

 

How old is Russell Martin? This seems like a horrible idea to me. The White Sox finally have payroll flexibility after having 7 or 8 players taking close to $90M or so several seasons. No Rios, Dunn, Konerko, Peavy, and Danks is probably their last big/bad deal.

 

They made a commitment last off-season of adding MLB ready younger players. I don't mind spending on free agency, I just prefer not to make rash moves. I'd be much happier with a quiet(er) off-season where Hahn makes moves that will help now ,and for the future, even if there is a gamble involved (see Matt Davidson for one that probably isn't going to work).

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If you think that spending in free agency will make this team about 20 wins better and capable of sustaining that level of success for the next 5+ seasons at least, then disregard my post, as the premise of the entire thing is that it's going to take longer than this off-season to build a sustainable contender, likely another full year. That said, Victor Martinez is not the answer unless the question is "Who can the White Sox sign to a contract they'll regret by midseason 2016?" He's 36 years old and it appears that some team is going to give him $20 million per year for at least 3 years. That will hamstring the process of putting together a competitive team for 2016 and beyond. If the team wants to spend $20 million this off-season, they should acquire three or four players who could give much bigger returns on investment. I didn't get into specifics because I haven't really studied the free agent class, but you mentioned one guy that might fit the bill that I'm taking about in Rasmus, Markakis is another guy that might work if the O's don't pick up his option, and I've heard the name Michael Saunders tossed around, which doesn't seem like a bad idea either. The savings you get between two decent bats vs. Martinez could be spent on a pen arm or two, then toss another $15-20 million in for another pen arm and a decent SP and you've set the stage well for 2016. If the team improves 5-10 wins with that kind of off-season, then you go get the big bat in the 2015 off-season, when the entire contract will occur in competitive years.

Do you like what you've seen of Abreu. I'm sure you do. Great season right ? Well VMart has been just as good as Abreu in his age 35 season. He has the highest batting average in his career, the highest OBP ,SLG , TB , OPS, and OPS+. He's doubled his career best in intentional walks and has K'ed just 41 times in 627 PA's. That's almost 90 less K's than Abreu. In many respects he's been better than Abreu. Just how fast do you expect him to fall off a cliff ? According to what you're saying he's got 1 good year left in him after a monster of a season.

 

It helps a lot hitting behind Cabrera and hitting behind or in front of Abreu would be just as good. Sox fans need something to get excited about . As I've already said if you get him and McCarthy and Dave Robertson we will be contending because we'll have a better lineup bullpen and rotation especially if they are all signed for 3 years we can contend for those 3 years while also working Rodon, Bassitt, Montas, Danish and any other pitching prospect that develops into the rotation and pen which will cost the bare minimum that players make in their 1st 3/4 years in the league. Contend for 3 yrs then contend after that with a (hopefully) very strong rotation after that anchored by cheap young talent.

 

You can't wait till the year after to get a big bat in free agency because we're likely to be outspent by all the high rollers which will probably end up the case with VMart also.

 

BTW I've been the one tossing around Michael Saunders name but the Sox would have to trade for him and we are woefully short on pieces ( talent) to trade if we don't want to touch our minor league guys.

Edited September 26, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Dam8610]

Do you like what you've seen of Abreu. I'm sure you do. Great season right ? Well VMart has been just as good as Abreu in his age 35 season. He has the highest batting average in his career, the highest OBP ,SLG , TB , OPS, and OPS+. He's doubled his career best in intentional walks and has K'ed just 41 times in 627 PA's. That's almost 90 less K's than Abreu. In many respects he's been better than Abreu. Just how fast do you expect him to fall off a cliff ? According to what you're saying he's got 1 good year left in him after a monster of a season.

 

It helps a lot hitting behind Cabrera and hitting behind or in front of Abreu would be just as good. Sox fans need something to get excited about . As I've already said if you get him and McCarthy and Dave Robertson we will be contending because we'll have a better lineup bullpen and rotation especially if they are all signed for 3 years we can contend for those 3 years while also working Rodon, Bassitt, Montas, Danish and any other pitching prospect that develops into the rotation and pen which will cost the bare minimum that players make in their 1st 3/4 years in the league. Contend for 3 yrs then contend after that with a (hopefully) very strong rotation after that anchored by cheap young talent.

 

You can't wait till the year after to get a big bat in free agency because we're likely to be outspent by all the high rollers which will probably end up the case with VMart also.

 

BTW I've been the one tossing around Michael Saunders name but the Sox would have to trade for him and we are woefully short on pieces ( talent) to trade if we don't want to touch our minor league guys.

 

Your argument in favor of Martinez is actually the problem with him. You're right, he had a career year at 35. What do you think the probability he'll repeat at 36 is? How about at 37? 38? Let's put it this way, the types of players that continue to produce at elite levels through their age 38 seasons usually end up in Cooperstown. I don't see Martinez as that caliber of player, and if you hated Adam Dunn at 4/$56, it's highly probable that you'll despise Victor Martinez at 3/$60. Look at Paul Konerko's last 4 seasons. Konerko's age 35 season was near MVP caliber, and his decline began at age 36. The last 3 seasons of Konerko are a decent window into what Victor Martinez is likely to give you for 3/$60. If you still think that's a good idea, then I hope that either the White Sox disagree or Victor Martinez defies probability and logic.

[Dick Allen]

Your argument in favor of Martinez is actually the problem with him. You're right, he had a career year at 35. What do you think the probability he'll repeat at 36 is? How about at 37? 38? Let's put it this way, the types of players that continue to produce at elite levels through their age 38 seasons usually end up in Cooperstown. I don't see Martinez as that caliber of player, and if you hated Adam Dunn at 4/$56, it's highly probable that you'll despise Victor Martinez at 3/$60. Look at Paul Konerko's last 4 seasons. Konerko's age 35 season was near MVP caliber, and his decline began at age 36. The last 3 seasons of Konerko are a decent window into what Victor Martinez is likely to give you for 3/$60. If you still think that's a good idea, then I hope that either the White Sox disagree or Victor Martinez defies probability and logic.

.303/.376/.847 lifetime. If hehas his career average year, he is pretty damn good.

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

.303/.376/.847 lifetime. If he has his career average year, he is pretty damn good.

I knew he'd come back with the career yr. stuff but you beat me to the punch. It's been like 5 yrs since the guy hit under .300 and how good do you have to be to have a career yr. at 35 ? Answer: Really good and really smart too. 41 K's this year. 41 !

 

 

Adam Dunn never sniffed .300 and usually had 41 K's some time in May.

 

Just to be accurate on Konerko he came in 13th in MVP voting during his age 35 season and was an All Star in his age 36 season .

Edited September 26, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Dam8610]

.303/.376/.847 lifetime. If hehas his career average year, he is pretty damn good.

 

Not many players hit their career averages very many times after 35.

 

I knew he'd come back with the career yr. stuff but you beat me to the punch. It's been like 5 yrs since the guy hit under .300 and how good do you have to be to have a career yr. at 35 ? Answer: Really good and really smart too. 41 K's this year. 41 !

 

 

Adam Dunn never sniffed .300 and usually had 41 K's some time in May.

 

Just to be accurate on Konerko he came in 13th in MVP voting during his age 35 season and was an All Star in his age 36 season .

 

Just to be accurate, Konerko's age 36 season represented a significant dropoff from his age 35 season, and his age 37 and 38 seasons fell off a damn cliff. Aging is extremely unkind to athletes, and I wouldn't want to be stuck paying Victor Martinez for the type of production Konerko has had for the past two seasons.

[southsider2k5]

I knew he'd come back with the career yr. stuff but you beat me to the punch. It's been like 5 yrs since the guy hit under .300 and how good do you have to be to have a career yr. at 35 ? Answer: Really good and really smart too. 41 K's this year. 41 !

 

 

Adam Dunn never sniffed .300 and usually had 41 K's some time in May.

 

Just to be accurate on Konerko he came in 13th in MVP voting during his age 35 season and was an All Star in his age 36 season .

 

Since we are talking about a three/four year deal, how did Konerko's 37 and 38 year old seasons look?

[Eminor3rd]

How old is Russell Martin? This seems like a horrible idea to me. The White Sox finally have payroll flexibility after having 7 or 8 players taking close to $90M or so several seasons. No Rios, Dunn, Konerko, Peavy, and Danks is probably their last big/bad deal.

 

They made a commitment last off-season of adding MLB ready younger players. I don't mind spending on free agency, I just prefer not to make rash moves. I'd be much happier with a quiet(er) off-season where Hahn makes moves that will help now ,and for the future, even if there is a gamble involved (see Matt Davidson for one that probably isn't going to work).

 

Russell Martin is currently 31 years old. The bolded line sounds a lot like signing Russell Martin.

 

The case for Martin is that he is tremendously valuable on defense, and specifically in ways that actually IMPROVE with age. And, regarding his skills that are expected to decline with age, he has a long way to fall before he would ever be considered problematic. If you go into the contract expecting a 100-110 wRC+ and high-end defense for ~120 games a year, you're very likely going to get exactly what you want. For reference, he did all that but with 140 wRC+ this year.

 

The case against Martin is that you're paying him after a career year, so even if you (correctly) don't expect him to repeat 2014, it's still going to drive his price up. But to where? $15m per year? If so, you're paying a guy coming off a 5 win season (and a 4 win season before that) to be a 3 win player. Even at $15m per year, his production could decline 40% and you still just be paying a market rate asset. And his skillset ages well.

 

I can understand the argument for signing nobody at all, but Martin is a much safer bet to produce than Victor Martinez (who is five years older, more injury prone, and whose contributions rely on bat speed, which is something that often DOES fall off a cliff suddenly for guys in their mid to upper thirties) and looks like he's probably going to come in the same price range.

 

I could be wrong about Martin's ultimate price, but to me, I'd feel really good about paying him up to $15m for each of the next four years. He makes the team substantially better immediately and is among the safest bets in this FA class to continue to contribute surplus value throughout the life of the contract.

[shysocks]

The case against Martin is that you're paying him after a career year, so even if you (correctly) don't expect him to repeat 2014, it's still going to drive his price up. But to where? $15m per year? If so, you're paying a guy coming off a 5 win season (and a 4 win season before that) to be a 3 win player. Even at $15m per year, his production could decline 40% and you still just be paying a market rate asset. And his skillset ages well.

His skillset is that he's a catcher, which doesn't age well. What happens if he can only catch 80 games a year from age 32-36? 50 games? It's been known to happen. Then you're paying $60 million for half a catcher and a DH with a career wRC+ of 106 that is greatly boosted by a career year at age 31, when you already have a 1-2 WAR catcher on the roster. If we splurge this offseason it should be on pitching or in the outfield.

 

I would be infinitely happier with a Russell Martin signing than a V-Mart one though. But there's a chance Martin will get more per year, given his position

Edited September 26, 2014 by shysocks

[witesoxfan]

His skillset is that he's a catcher, which doesn't age well. What happens if he can only catch 80 games a year from age 32-36? 50 games? It's been known to happen. Then you're paying $60 million for half a catcher and a DH with a career wRC+ of 106 that is greatly boosted by a career year at age 31, when you already have a 1-2 WAR catcher on the roster. If we splurge this offseason it should be on pitching or in the outfield.

 

I would be infinitely happier with a Russell Martin signing than a V-Mart one though. But there's a chance Martin will get more per year, given his position

 

Barring a concussion or other injury, I don't know why Martin wouldn't catch 120 games a year, minimum. Yeah, he could break down, but so could any free agent. You don't justify not signing them because they could break down.

 

I also don't think there's any way Martin makes more per year than Victor Martinez, barring Victor taking a hometown deal with Detroit.

[southsider2k5]

The important thing is Lyle Mouton.

[LDF]

His skillset is that he's a catcher, which doesn't age well. What happens if he can only catch 80 games a year from age 32-36? 50 games? It's been known to happen. Then you're paying $60 million for half a catcher and a DH with a career wRC+ of 106 that is greatly boosted by a career year at age 31, when you already have a 1-2 WAR catcher on the roster. If we splurge this offseason it should be on pitching or in the outfield.

 

I would be infinitely happier with a Russell Martin signing than a V-Mart one though. But there's a chance Martin will get more per year, given his position

 

while martin may be a good option, I think the cost is too much. I rather save

the money of spending fa money and spending it somewhere else.

[Eminor3rd]

His skillset is that he's a catcher, which doesn't age well. What happens if he can only catch 80 games a year from age 32-36? 50 games? It's been known to happen. Then you're paying $60 million for half a catcher and a DH with a career wRC+ of 106 that is greatly boosted by a career year at age 31, when you already have a 1-2 WAR catcher on the roster. If we splurge this offseason it should be on pitching or in the outfield.

 

I would be infinitely happier with a Russell Martin signing than a V-Mart one though. But there's a chance Martin will get more per year, given his position

 

I just want to clarify that you're arguing that he'll be hurt a lot because he's a catcher, which is different than what I'm saying when I'm arguing that his skillset ages well. I'm talking specifically about his game-calling and pitch-framing, which studies have shown improve with age. When it comes to the things that decline with age, the difference between a good and bad catcher's throwing arm has been pretty convincingly argued as overrated (because pitcher behavior and catcher footwork more strongly correlate with CS% than catcher pop times: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-overrat...throwing-arms/), and catcher offense has actually occupied a substantially softer aging curve than that exhibited by other position players under the current offensive environment:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-agi...ve-not-a-cliff/

 

Age Catchers All

21 -8.5 -14.6

21 to 22 -4.2 -8.7

22 to 23 -8.0 -4.3

23 to 24 -4.1 -1.5

24 to 25 -3.0 -0.2

25 to 26 0.0 0.0

26 to 27 -4.7 -2.5

27 to 28 -1.5 -3.3

28 to 29 -7.2 -4.8

29 to 30 -9.9 -9.8

30 to 31 -14.0 -11.5

31 to 32 -17.9 -17.1

32 to 33 -22.8 -21.8

33 to 34 -22.4 -25.3

34 to 35 -28.9 -30.8

35 to 36 -32.5 -35.8

36 to 37 -35.9 -39.7

37 to 38 -45.0 -49.7

38 to 39 -51.7 -57.1

39 to 40 -61.4 -68.5

40 to 41 -80.2 -79.7

 

There simply isn’t this huge early-30s drop-off that is widely accepted as a fact of life for catchers. The existence of a huge cliff at which productive catchers simply turn into useless backups isn’t supported by the data. Like players at all other positions, catcher aging is a mostly linear downwards trend, and there just aren’t certain ages at which player performance gets exponentially worse. Skills decay over time; they don’t evaporate over night.

 

Good 34 year olds don’t regularly become bad 35 year olds. In general, you should expect players to decline at something like +0.5 per season. If they’re especially injury prone and their bodies are breaking down, limiting future playing time, maybe you knock off +0.75 WAR per season. A reasonable aging curve should return a decay of something in that range, for nearly any set of years. Whether a player is 30 or 35 should not drastically change the amount of aging you expect in the future.

 

And whether a player is a catcher or not should also not greatly affect our expectations for his future performance. In general, catchers age about how we’d expect any other position player to age. They get worse, but they don’t fall apart without notice. Expect decline, not collapse.

 

Finally:

 

The important thing is Lyle Mouton.

 

Edited September 26, 2014 by Eminor3rd