Three YEPS and three NOPES

[LDF]

It is still going to be on a case by case thing. Martin may be better 3 years from now, or he may be

collecting a check. When the Sox signed Carlton Fisk for the 1981 season, he was 33 years old.

I remember Roland Hemond saying he told JR he thought Fisk had 2 productive years left, but needed

to go to 3 to sign him. What did he have 13 seasons in a White Sox uniform, and probably 10 pretty productive ones. Obviously there is no way anyone could expect something similar to happen again, but weird stuff does happen. If Martin winds up a White Sox, I won't be kicking and screaming, but I'm very leary of him putting up numbers and being a presence where it would be a consensus thought with hindsight, that he was a good signing, but I will acknowledge it is possible.

 

And maybe the discrepancy at the age 33 is the time they start platooning more. Who knows? One thing that is certain is if you knew exactly how someone would age, you would be winning a lot of titles.

 

and that is the wildcard, I am in agreement. using the age line is no way to gage a player. so signing

players is a gamble. whether one is using advance stats nor not, it is the luck of the draw.

 

my point is the sox have holes, can they be address and catching will be one, or is flowers performance and

his hitting those hrs help his cause. can the sox deal with a weak question mark at catcher and field a

good overall team.

 

hope the sox can find a gem in a trade

 

[Dick Allen]

Again just to point out...these sort of things were said about Paul Konerko, especially when he had that ridiculous first half of his 2012 season. He then had one small injury that built and fell off a cliff. You literally would never have seen it coming. We didn't and we wound up paying a big salary last year to a guy who was really, really bad.

We found out this week White Sox doctors didn't expect Paulie's hip to hold up through the 2010 season, and Mark Gonzalez in his tribute said he was playing with a bad hip and bad back., and he has been off the Sox beat for a couple of seasons. So it really wasn't one small injury that did him in. It is part of aging, but not everyone ages like Konerko. We didn't see it coming because it was kept quiet. Now if Victor has some sort of condition that no one knows about, I agree, don't sign him. But he blew a knee and missed his age 33 season. The age guys would probably have said the end is near or at least a steady decline, and were probably patting themselves on the back the first part of last year for being so smart, but it turns out they were really wrong.

Edited September 26, 2014 by Dick Allen

[2nd_city_saint787]

Again just to point out...these sort of things were said about Paul Konerko, especially when he had that ridiculous first half of his 2012 season. He then had one small injury that built and fell off a cliff. You literally would never have seen it coming. We didn't and we wound up paying a big salary last year to a guy who was really, really bad.

 

PKs K rate has never been quite as good as Martinez. Since 2008 VMarts K% was never above 11, and the last 4 years it's been single digits. Last time PK had a K rate below 11 was 2003 and since then his best year was 13.9. Martinez never had a season like that in his career.

 

Of course an injury can happen, with any player, at any age, but that can't detour from going after any player.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Since we are talking about a three/four year deal, how did Konerko's 37 and 38 year old seasons look?

You have to judge guys on an individual basis. PK's performance has nothing to do with how VMart will perform at similar ages. PK's a walking cripple. To do what Martinez did this year you have to be pretty healthy. I'm actually shocked at how many people don't want one of the best hitters on the planet for 3 years. Are we so steeped in mediocrity that not only do we accept it but we yearn for it ?

 

Do Dustin Ackley's beckham-like numbers or Rasmus' viciedo-like numbers really appeal to so many ? Have we gotten rid of the dead weight only to acquire more of the same ?

[Boopa1219]

Do Dustin Ackley's beckham-like numbers or Rasmus' viciedo-like numbers really appeal to so many ? Have we gotten rid of the dead weight only to acquire more of the same ?

 

Bartender, give this man a drink on my tab.

 

This is the smartest thing that I have heard on this thread.

[Dam8610]

You have to judge guys on an individual basis. PK's performance has nothing to do with how VMart will perform at similar ages. PK's a walking cripple. To do what Martinez did this year you have to be pretty healthy. I'm actually shocked at how many people don't want one of the best hitters on the planet for 3 years. Are we so steeped in mediocrity that not only do we accept it but we yearn for it ?

 

Do Dustin Ackley's beckham-like numbers or Rasmus' viciedo-like numbers really appeal to so many ? Have we gotten rid of the dead weight only to acquire more of the same ?

 

Konerko and Dunn, two older sluggers who declined over the past 3 or 4 years and were highly overpaid as a result, have much more to do with the mediocrity than Beckham or Viciedo. Ironic, then, that you would talk about shedding the dead weight to acquire more while advocating for signing Victor Martinez.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Konerko and Dunn, two older sluggers who declined over the past 3 or 4 years and were highly overpaid as a result, have much more to do with the mediocrity than Beckham or Viciedo. Ironic, then, that you would talk about shedding the dead weight to acquire more while advocating for signing Victor Martinez.

When VMArt becomes mediocre you let me know because now he is so far above mediocre he'd have to go blind in one eye to get there.

[Quin]

When VMArt becomes mediocre you let me know because now he is so far above mediocre he'd have to go blind in one eye to get there.

 

Or have one small wrist injury and then it snowballs because of his age.

 

I would have figured Paulie to age better than VMart, but as has been said everything people are saying about Martinez could have been said about Konerko. In the first half of 2012, Paulie looked like he had a HoF push left in him. 500 homers at the least. Then injury.

 

And give me a break with bringing up Fisk. He's one of the all-time great catchers and a baseball legend. He is not the standard.

[Dam8610]

Or have one small wrist injury and then it snowballs because of his age.

 

I would have figured Paulie to age better than VMart, but as has been said everything people are saying about Martinez could have been said about Konerko. In the first half of 2012, Paulie looked like he had a HoF push left in him. 500 homers at the least. Then injury.

 

And give me a break with bringing up Fisk. He's one of the all-time great catchers and a baseball legend. He is not the standard.

 

Could not have put it better myself.

 

If Martinez were 32, I'd be on board with signing him for 3-4 years. However, because he's 36, unless he ends up being a hall of famer, whoever signs him to his next contract is going to regret it. I don't really want the White Sox to gamble with $20 million of payroll for the next 3+ years that Victor Martinez will end up in the top 1% of the top 1% of players in baseball history. It's a safer bet than the alternative, especially since that $20 million can be spread out to 3 or 4 good players.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Or have one small wrist injury and then it snowballs because of his age.

 

I would have figured Paulie to age better than VMart, but as has been said everything people are saying about Martinez could have been said about Konerko. In the first half of 2012, Paulie looked like he had a HoF push left in him. 500 homers at the least. Then injury.

 

And give me a break with bringing up Fisk. He's one of the all-time great catchers and a baseball legend. He is not the standard.

 

That could be said about anyone though really.

[Dam8610]

That could be said about anyone though really.

 

No, it can't. Not everyone has the age factor working against them. You want to affect the Tigers' ability to compete using Victor Martinez? Let them resign him and pile up more bad contracts.

[2nd_city_saint787]

No, it can't. Not everyone has the age factor working against them. You want to affect the Tigers' ability to compete using Victor Martinez? Let them resign him and pile up more bad contracts.

 

When talking about the free agent market?? What young FA are we gonna acquire? Because Russell Martin is a few years younger he won't break his Wrist and decline? It can't happen to Billy Butler because he's 29? If they go cheap on hitting and go big on pitching, none of those guys are at risk to tommy john or something like that?

 

There's a risk in every player you sign. There MAY be a bigger risk in VMart, but there's also MAY be a much bigger reward.

 

I don't care about the Tigers. I want the Sox to put out a team that can beat the Tigers, not worry about them having bad contracts.

 

 

......

 

Sox have Abreu for 2 more discounted years then he probably gets real expensive. Couple that with the Sale and Q contracts and the Sox are in a good position to take a "risk" on a guy like VMart.

 

Even at 20M for the first 2 years the payroll is still only gonna be in the 80M range, and with an addition like Martinez I fully expect the Sox to go "all in" and the payroll to be back over 100M. Martinez wouldn't cripple the Sox at all. I said the same thing about Cano last year with a 25M a year contract.

Edited September 27, 2014 by scs787

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't see Martinez getting much more than 3/$45M. That's the exact contract Beltran got at basically the same age.

 

If so, that's a no-brainer for us IMO. I'm perfectly aware that's he not going to repeat his current season and there is some chance he suddenly falls off a cliff, but he's such smart/pure hitter that I think he's got a good shot of remaining well above-average with the bat over the next three years.

 

A 1-2-3 of Eaton-Semien-Martinez would make Abreu even more dangerous.

[Balta1701]

In theory I am against signing Martinez but he is the one player that could really alter our lineup. Imagine if we signed him and brought in another left-handed bat.

How good is this other left handed bat?

 

Because I look at Martinez's career and how much of an outlier this year is compared to the rest of it and think that adding his normal .850 OPS would be a good addition but wouldn't do anything like Abreu in "really altering the lineup".

[Dick Allen]

How good is this other left handed bat?

 

Because I look at Martinez's career and how much of an outlier this year is compared to the rest of it and think that adding his normal .850 OPS would be a good addition but wouldn't do anything like Abreu in "really altering the lineup".

There are currently 15 qualified players in the major leagues who have at least an .850 OPS.

[Balta1701]

There are currently 15 qualified players in the major leagues who have at least an .850 OPS.

Would that "really alter the lineup" though? There are another 15 who have an OPS over .817.

 

The difference between a guy at the top of that list and a guy in the mid .800s is huge. Adding 2 of those latter guys, yeah that's a big lineup change. Adding one more of them? Nice contributor, but not going to suddenly turn this lineup into a force.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Would that "really alter the lineup" though? There are another 15 who have an OPS over .817.

 

The difference between a guy at the top of that list and a guy in the mid .800s is huge. Adding 2 of those latter guys, yeah that's a big lineup change. Adding one more of them? Nice contributor, but not going to suddenly turn this lineup into a force.

 

Absolutely it would.

 

Even if that 2nd bat is a guy like Dustin Ackley if they roll with...

 

1. Eaton

2. Semien/Johnson/Sanchez

3. Abreu

4. Martinez

5. Garcia

6. Gillaspie

7. Ramirez

8. Ackely

9. Flowers/?

 

That appears to be a really strong lineup, and depending on what they do with the catcher position 1 that's only gonna add ~25M. Probably looking at ~75M, so if they do indeed push the 100M payroll mark that leaves 25M for a SP and some pen help.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Would that "really alter the lineup" though? There are another 15 who have an OPS over .817.

 

The difference between a guy at the top of that list and a guy in the mid .800s is huge. Adding 2 of those latter guys, yeah that's a big lineup change. Adding one more of them? Nice contributor, but not going to suddenly turn this lineup into a force.

Why wouldn't it? Switch hitter, high OBP. Low k rate.

 

The White Sox are most likely not going to sign him, but he is a great hitter who, if you gave him a 3 year contract, would be 38 when that contract ended. Saying he will physically fall apart like Paulie just based on age is silly. There are plenty of examples of elite hitters remaining elite at this age.

Edited September 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[SCCWS]

Why wouldn't it? Switch hitter, high OBP. Low k rate.

 

The White Sox are most likely not going to sign him, but he is a great hitter who, if you gave him a 3 year contract, would be 38 when that contract ended. Saying he will physically fall apart like Paulie just based on age is silly. There are plenty of examples of elite hitters remaining elite at this age.

 

I agree to some extent. But Paulie was a 1st baseman and he declined rapidly. VMart was a ctacher for many years so his decline may show up earlier based on the wear and tear of the position he played. But every body is different and he has not shown a decline at the plate so far.

[Balta1701]

Why wouldn't it? Switch hitter, high OBP. Low k rate.

 

The White Sox are most likely not going to sign him, but he is a great hitter who, if you gave him a 3 year contract, would be 38 when that contract ended. Saying he will physically fall apart like Paulie just based on age is silly. There are plenty of examples of elite hitters remaining elite at this age.

It tells me a lot that in order to sell him you have to exaggerate so much. He is not by any means a "great hitter". He's a solid above average hitter having one great season late in his career. This is literally the first season out of either of their careers where he's been anywhere close to the production of a guy like Miguel Cabrera who is actually a great hitter.

 

He's a great hitter if he can, in his late 30's, do what he's never done in his career prior to this year for several more seasons.

[Dam8610]

When talking about the free agent market?? What young FA are we gonna acquire? Because Russell Martin is a few years younger he won't break his Wrist and decline? It can't happen to Billy Butler because he's 29? If they go cheap on hitting and go big on pitching, none of those guys are at risk to tommy john or something like that?

 

There's a risk in every player you sign. There MAY be a bigger risk in VMart, but there's also MAY be a much bigger reward.

 

I don't care about the Tigers. I want the Sox to put out a team that can beat the Tigers, not worry about them having bad contracts.

 

 

......

 

Sox have Abreu for 2 more discounted years then he probably gets real expensive. Couple that with the Sale and Q contracts and the Sox are in a good position to take a "risk" on a guy like VMart.

 

Even at 20M for the first 2 years the payroll is still only gonna be in the 80M range, and with an addition like Martinez I fully expect the Sox to go "all in" and the payroll to be back over 100M. Martinez wouldn't cripple the Sox at all. I said the same thing about Cano last year with a 25M a year contract.

 

 

An injury decline is a risk that can't be mitigated, but an age decline risk can be mitigated...by not signing someone who will be 36 to start next season.

 

Obviously there's a risk to every player that can be signed, but that risk increases with age and with dollars spent on the player. This is why I think it would be stupid to sign ANY 36 year old to a 3 year/$60 million deal. The risk factor is far too high.

[Dick Allen]

It tells me a lot that in order to sell him you have to exaggerate so much. He is not by any means a "great hitter". He's a solid above average hitter having one great season late in his career. This is literally the first season out of either of their careers where he's been anywhere close to the production of a guy like Miguel Cabrera who is actually a great hitter.

 

He's a great hitter if he can, in his late 30's, do what he's never done in his career prior to this year for several more seasons.

.306/.373/.848 for his career. An average hitter this year is .251/.314/.701. I think he is a bit better than above average. He is a great hitter. His career split line and Magglio's career split line are almost identical.

Edited September 27, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

.306/.373/.848 for his career. An average hitter this year is .251/.314/.701. I think he is a bit better than above average. He is a great hitter. His career split line and Magglio's career split line are almost identical.

You have a really weak definition of a "great hitter".

[Dick Allen]

You have a really weak definition of a "great hitter".

Next time a White Sox puts up that line, his average line for a season, while everyone will be enjoying it, you can sit around and convince yourself it was just a solid above averag year.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

What does Martinez not do well enough to be considered a great hitter?

An .848 career OPS?